Las Palmas v Burgos — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 15.9%
- 1-1 12.5%
- 0-0 11.9%
- 0-1 10.5%
- 2-0 9.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 35.1% | Under 2.5 | 64.9% |
| BTTS yes | 40.2% | BTTS no | 59.8% |
| Las Palmas 1+ | 72.1% | Las Palmas 2+ | 36.4% |
| Burgos 1+ | 56.3% | Burgos 2+ | 20.1% |
Expected goals 1.28 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Las Palmas have an estimated 49.8% win probability, against 28.2% for the draw and 22.0% for Burgos. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.27 for Las Palmas and 0.83 for Burgos.
Why Las Palmas
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.2%. A combined 2.10 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Burgos can win
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Las Palmas's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fabio Silva (0.42), Oliver McBurnie (0.26), Alberto Moleiro (0.21).
Availability
3 of Las Palmas's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Burgos, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Las Palmas: 56% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. Burgos: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Las Palmas are the model's most likely outcome at 49.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.9%. Confidence 55/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.28–0.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.99–0.75 | 1-0 18% | 25% | 33% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to win | 40.4% | 43.0% | 45.4% | 0.95× | 2.33 |
| Draw | 32.5% | 30.4% | 26.6% | 1.14× | 3.29 |
| Burgos to win | 27.1% | 27.9% | 28.1% | 0.99× | 3.59 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas & not both score | 30.1% | 29.7% | 23.7% | 1.25× | 3.37 |
| Burgos & not both score | 19.9% | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.33× | 5.58 |
| Draw & not both score | 17.3% | 17.9% | 9.1% | 1.96× | 5.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 15.3% | 17.9% | 17.6% | 1.02× | 5.59 |
| Las Palmas & both teams score | 10.3% | 13.3% | 21.9% | 0.61× | 7.55 |
| Burgos & both teams score | 7.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 0.57× | 11.93 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas & under 3.5 | 35.6% | 34.9% | 32.3% | 1.08× | 2.87 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 29.9% | 26.0% | 20.3% | 1.28× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 29.9% | 26.0% | 20.3% | 1.28× | 3.84 |
| Las Palmas & under 2.5 | 26.4% | 26.0% | 19.3% | 1.35× | 3.84 |
| Burgos & under 3.5 | 24.5% | 21.6% | 19.7% | 1.10× | 4.62 |
| Las Palmas & over 1.5 | 22.6% | 21.6% | 32.5% | 0.67× | 4.62 |
| Las Palmas & under 1.5 | 17.8% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 1.38× | 5.56 |
| Burgos & under 2.5 | 18.4% | 18.0% | 11.6% | 1.56× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 17.3% | 18.0% | 9.1% | 1.97× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 15.3% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 1.02× | 5.56 |
| Las Palmas & over 2.5 | 14.0% | 12.9% | 26.2% | 0.49× | 7.77 |
| Burgos & over 1.5 | 13.6% | 12.9% | 19.5% | 0.66× | 7.77 |
| Burgos & under 1.5 | 13.5% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 1.48× | 7.77 |
| Burgos & over 2.5 | 8.6% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.47× | 12.70 |
| Las Palmas & over 3.5 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 13.2% | 0.36× | 20.92 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.74× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.74× | 20.93 |
| Burgos & over 3.5 | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 0.56× | 20.94 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (1UP) | 50.8% | 52.7% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Burgos (1UP) | 38.5% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (2UP) | 40.4% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Burgos (2UP) | 27.1% | 25.0% | — | — | 4.00 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 45.9% | 45.5% | — | — | 2.20 |
| Las Palmas to win 2nd half | 30.9% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Burgos to win 2nd half | 23.2% | 23.0% | — | — | 4.35 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (+2.5) | 95.6% | 96.3% | 92.3% | 1.04× | 1.04 |
| Burgos (+1.5) | 84.7% | 82.4% | 80.4% | 1.02× | 1.21 |
| Las Palmas (+0.5) | 72.9% | 73.7% | 71.9% | 1.02× | 1.36 |
| Burgos (+0.5) | 59.6% | 57.0% | 54.6% | 1.05× | 1.75 |
| Las Palmas (-0.5) | 40.4% | 43.0% | 45.4% | 0.95× | 2.33 |
| Burgos (-0.5) | 27.1% | 26.3% | 28.1% | 0.94× | 3.80 |
| Las Palmas (-1.5) | 15.3% | 17.6% | 19.6% | 0.90× | 5.69 |
| Las Palmas (-2.5) | 4.4% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 0.49× | 26.77 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos to concede | 62.8% | 67.2% | 77.5% | 0.87× | 1.49 |
| Burgos clean sheet | 37.2% | 32.8% | 22.5% | 1.46× | 3.05 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos clean sheet in 1st half | 65.4% | 70.1% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Burgos to concede in 1st half | 34.6% | 29.9% | — | — | 3.35 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos under 6.5 corners | 93.6% | 90.1% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Burgos under 5.5 corners | 87.5% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Burgos under 4.5 corners | 77.1% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Burgos under 3.5 corners | 61.6% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Burgos over 2.5 corners | 58.3% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Burgos under 2.5 corners | 41.7% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Burgos over 3.5 corners | 38.4% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Burgos over 4.5 corners | 22.9% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Burgos over 5.5 corners | 12.5% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.75 |
| Burgos over 6.5 corners | 6.4% | 9.9% | — | — | 10.08 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos under 3.5 goals | 99.3% | 97.6% | 97.0% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Burgos under 2.5 goals | 96.0% | 97.5% | 89.2% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Burgos under 1.5 goals | 82.7% | 81.4% | 69.5% | 1.17× | 1.23 |
| Burgos over 0.5 goals | 52.7% | 53.7% | 67.3% | 0.80× | 1.86 |
| Burgos under 0.5 goals | 47.3% | 46.3% | 32.7% | 1.42× | 2.16 |
| Burgos over 1.5 goals | 17.3% | 18.6% | 30.5% | 0.61× | 5.39 |
| Burgos over 2.5 goals | 4.0% | 2.5% | 10.8% | 0.23× | 40.76 |
| Burgos over 3.5 goals | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.80× | 40.94 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.3% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Burgos under 0.5 in 1st half | 74.1% | 68.8% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Burgos over 0.5 in 1st half | 25.9% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| Burgos over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.7% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.36 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (away no bet) | 55.4% | 57.5% | 63.1% | 0.91× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 44.6% | 42.5% | 36.9% | 1.15× | 2.35 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos even goals | 61.2% | 59.0% | 54.7% | 1.08× | 1.69 |
| Burgos odd goals | 38.8% | 41.0% | 45.3% | 0.90× | 2.44 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 95.6% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 4.4% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.20 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 61.3% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 38.7% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 34.1% | 28.8% | — | — | 3.47 |
| Las Palmas to score 2+ in a row | 22.1% | 19.5% | — | — | 5.13 |
| Burgos to score 2+ in a row | 13.7% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.24 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 8.4% | 5.7% | — | — | 17.67 |
| Las Palmas to score 3+ in a row | 5.8% | 5.6% | — | — | 17.89 |
| Burgos to score 3+ in a row | 2.7% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.78 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas corners (+3.5) | 95.0% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Las Palmas corners (+2.5) | 90.8% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Las Palmas corners (+1.5) | 84.3% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Burgos corners (+3.5) | 71.8% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Burgos corners (+2.5) | 60.8% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Las Palmas corners (-1.5) | 51.6% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Burgos corners (+1.5) | 48.4% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Las Palmas corners (-2.5) | 39.2% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Las Palmas corners (-3.5) | 28.2% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.41 |
| Burgos corners (-1.5) | 15.7% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.93 |
| Burgos corners (-2.5) | 9.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.57 |
| Burgos corners (-3.5) | 5.0% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 58.6% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.4% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 14.9% | 21.2% | — | — | 4.72 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 90.2% | 83.3% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 85.1% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 78.2% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 69.3% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 58.6% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 53.3% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 46.7% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 41.4% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 30.7% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 21.8% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 14.9% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 9.8% | 16.7% | — | — | 5.98 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 1.06× | 7.26 |
| 0-0 | 17.3% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 1.50× | 7.27 |
| 0-1 | 13.5% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 1.31× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 1.02× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.47 |
| 2-1 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 0.74× | 13.47 |
| 0-2 | 4.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.58× | 58.50 |
| 1-2 | 4.9% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.24× | 58.50 |
| 0-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.35× | 58.52 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.52 |
| 1-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 58.52 |
| 1-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.03× | 58.52 |
| 2-2 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 5.7% | 0.30× | 58.51 |
| 2-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.52 |
| 2-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.52 |
| 3-0 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.56× | 58.51 |
| 3-1 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.51 |
| 3-2 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.52 |
| 3-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.52 |
| 3-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.12× | 58.52 |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.48× | 58.52 |
| 4-1 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.90× | 58.52 |
| 4-2 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.48× | 58.52 |
| 4-3 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.42× | 58.52 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.12× | 58.52 |
| Any other score | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.52 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas leading at HT (DNB) | 60.3% | 65.6% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Burgos leading at HT (DNB) | 39.7% | 34.4% | — | — | 2.91 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw (1X) | 72.9% | 72.1% | 71.9% | 1.00× | 1.39 |
| Las Palmas or Burgos (12) | 67.5% | 69.6% | 73.4% | 0.95× | 1.44 |
| Burgos or draw (X2) | 59.6% | 57.0% | 54.6% | 1.04× | 1.75 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw at HT | 82.0% | 84.3% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Burgos or draw at HT | 72.7% | 74.6% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Las Palmas or Burgos at HT | 45.3% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw (1UP) | 72.9% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Burgos or draw (1UP) | 59.6% | 62.9% | — | — | 1.59 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw in 2nd half | 76.8% | 77.0% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Burgos or draw in 2nd half | 69.1% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Las Palmas or Burgos in 2nd half | 54.1% | 54.5% | — | — | 1.84 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 75.8% | 76.4% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Neither half drawn | 24.2% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (DNB) | 59.9% | 58.3% | 61.8% | 0.94× | 1.72 |
| Burgos (DNB) | 40.1% | 41.7% | 38.2% | 1.09× | 2.40 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to score first | 47.1% | 45.6% | — | — | 2.19 |
| Burgos to score first | 35.6% | 32.6% | — | — | 3.07 |
| No goal scored | 17.3% | 17.8% | — | — | 5.61 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 67.3% | 58.2% | 46.1% | 1.26× | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 32.7% | 41.8% | 53.9% | 0.77× | 2.39 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 62.1% | 50.0% | 39.9% | 1.26× | 2.00 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 20.1% | 27.7% | 42.8% | 0.65× | 3.61 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 1.09× | 8.12 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 1.32× | 11.97 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 95.5% | 91.7% | 85.7% | 1.07× | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 4.5% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 0.58× | 12.05 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 84.5% | 74.7% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 15.5% | 25.3% | — | — | 3.95 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 77.0% | 75.2% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 14.1% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.45 |
| Both score 1st half only | 7.5% | 6.8% | — | — | 14.78 |
| Both score in both halves | 1.4% | 4.8% | — | — | 20.87 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 91.1% | 91.3% | — | — | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 8.9% | 8.7% | — | — | 11.52 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 67.4% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| A goal in each half | 32.6% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 48.5% | 47.4% | 30.7% | 1.54× | 2.11 |
| 2-3 goals | 41.6% | 42.1% | 41.4% | 1.02× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 9.7% | 7.6% | 26.5% | 0.29× | 13.10 |
| 7+ goals | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.15× | 55.24 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos to score exactly 0 | 47.3% | 42.9% | 32.7% | 1.31× | 2.33 |
| Burgos to score exactly 1 | 35.4% | 36.0% | 36.9% | 0.97× | 2.78 |
| Burgos to score exactly 2 | 13.2% | 12.8% | 19.8% | 0.65× | 7.81 |
| Burgos to score 3+ | 4.0% | 4.5% | 10.8% | 0.42× | 22.03 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to score exactly 0 | 37.2% | 35.6% | 22.5% | 1.58× | 2.81 |
| Las Palmas to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 35.6% | 35.6% | 1.00× | 2.81 |
| Las Palmas to score exactly 2 | 18.2% | 18.9% | 25.0% | 0.75× | 5.30 |
| Las Palmas to score 3+ | 7.8% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 0.60× | 9.71 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 54.7% | 48.2% | — | — | 2.08 |
| Las Palmas leading at HT | 27.3% | 25.4% | — | — | 3.93 |
| Burgos leading at HT | 18.0% | 15.7% | — | — | 6.38 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas -1: 2 | 59.6% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Las Palmas -1: X | 25.0% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Las Palmas -1: 1 | 15.3% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:1) | 59.6% | 55.9% | 54.6% | 1.02× | 1.79 |
| Draw (0:1) | 25.0% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 1.04× | 3.70 |
| Las Palmas (0:1) | 15.3% | 17.8% | 19.6% | 0.91× | 5.63 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:2) | 84.7% | 82.8% | 80.4% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Draw (0:2) | 10.9% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 0.92× | 9.11 |
| Las Palmas (0:2) | 4.4% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 0.49× | 26.47 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:3) | 95.6% | 96.6% | 92.3% | 1.05× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.4% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 0.44× | 42.06 |
| Las Palmas (0:3) | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.98× | 42.17 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:4) | 99.0% | 98.1% | 97.6% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.57× | 83.52 |
| Las Palmas (0:4) | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.84× | 83.59 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (1:0) | 72.9% | 72.5% | 71.9% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| Draw (1:0) | 19.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 0.95× | 5.87 |
| Burgos (1:0) | 8.0% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 0.68× | 14.46 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (2:0) | 92.0% | 94.0% | 89.8% | 1.05× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 0.91× | 15.54 |
| Burgos (2:0) | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.69× | 44.40 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 41.7% | 47.2% | — | — | 2.12 |
| Halves equal | 32.6% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.33 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 25.7% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.78 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to concede | 52.7% | 53.1% | 67.3% | 0.79× | 1.88 |
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 47.3% | 46.9% | 32.7% | 1.43× | 2.13 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas clean sheet in 1st half | 74.1% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Las Palmas to concede in 1st half | 25.9% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.17 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas over 2.5 corners | 81.6% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Las Palmas under 6.5 corners | 75.3% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Las Palmas over 3.5 corners | 67.1% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Las Palmas under 5.5 corners | 63.3% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Las Palmas over 4.5 corners | 51.3% | 52.8% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Las Palmas under 4.5 corners | 48.7% | 47.2% | — | — | 2.12 |
| Las Palmas over 5.5 corners | 36.7% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Las Palmas under 3.5 corners | 32.9% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.00 |
| Las Palmas over 6.5 corners | 24.7% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Las Palmas under 2.5 corners | 18.4% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas under 3.5 goals | 98.2% | 96.4% | 93.7% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Las Palmas under 2.5 goals | 92.2% | 92.3% | 83.0% | 1.11× | 1.08 |
| Las Palmas under 1.5 goals | 74.0% | 74.2% | 58.0% | 1.28× | 1.35 |
| Las Palmas over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | 63.4% | 77.5% | 0.82× | 1.58 |
| Las Palmas under 0.5 goals | 37.2% | 36.6% | 22.5% | 1.62× | 2.74 |
| Las Palmas over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 25.8% | 42.0% | 0.61× | 3.88 |
| Las Palmas over 2.5 goals | 7.8% | 7.7% | 17.0% | 0.45× | 12.92 |
| Las Palmas over 3.5 goals | 1.8% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 0.58× | 27.50 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas under 1.5 in 1st half | 93.2% | 95.4% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Las Palmas under 0.5 in 1st half | 65.4% | 68.7% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Las Palmas over 0.5 in 1st half | 34.6% | 31.3% | — | — | 3.20 |
| Las Palmas over 1.5 in 1st half | 6.8% | 4.6% | — | — | 21.73 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 54.6% | 51.6% | 48.7% | 1.06× | 1.94 |
| Burgos (home no bet) | 45.4% | 48.4% | 51.3% | 0.94× | 2.07 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas even goals | 56.9% | 55.5% | 51.8% | 1.07× | 1.80 |
| Las Palmas odd goals | 43.1% | 44.5% | 48.2% | 0.92× | 2.25 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 48.4% | 47.3% | — | — | 2.11 |
| HT 1-0 | 20.7% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
| HT 0-1 | 14.6% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.09 |
| HT 1-1 | 6.1% | 7.0% | — | — | 14.19 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.4% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.74 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.91 |
| HT 2-1 | 1.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.97 |
| Any other HT score | 1.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.97 |
| HT 1-2 | 0.9% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.00 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.06 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 24.8% | 21.8% | — | — | 4.58 |
| Las Palmas at HT / Las Palmas at FT | 22.1% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
| Draw at HT / Las Palmas at FT | 17.1% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.95 |
| Burgos at HT / Burgos at FT | 13.2% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Burgos at FT | 12.9% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Las Palmas at HT / Draw at FT | 4.1% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.83 |
| Burgos at HT / Draw at FT | 3.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.85 |
| Las Palmas at HT / Burgos at FT | 1.0% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.95 |
| Burgos at HT / Las Palmas at FT | 1.2% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.94 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to score last | 47.1% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Burgos to score last | 35.7% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| No goal scored | 17.3% | 12.5% | — | — | 7.98 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 82.7% | 87.3% | — | — | 1.15 |
| Las Palmas to lead by 1 at any time | 50.8% | 50.6% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Burgos to lead by 1 at any time | 38.5% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 29.0% | 25.3% | — | — | 3.95 |
| Las Palmas to lead by 2 at any time | 18.5% | 15.0% | — | — | 6.67 |
| Burgos to lead by 2 at any time | 10.6% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.65 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 7.3% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.24 |
| Las Palmas to lead by 3 at any time | 5.1% | 6.5% | — | — | 15.35 |
| Burgos to lead by 3 at any time | 2.2% | 1.6% | — | — | 64.32 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas most corners | 64.1% | 60.5% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Burgos most corners | 24.7% | 26.0% | — | — | 3.85 |
| Corners level | 11.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 81.9% | 83.5% | 85.8% | 0.97× | 1.20 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.5% | 78.6% | 78.1% | 1.01× | 1.27 |
| 1-3 goals | 72.9% | 72.4% | 63.0% | 1.15× | 1.38 |
| 1-2 goals | 57.5% | 59.2% | 42.0% | 1.41× | 1.69 |
| 2-6 goals | 51.3% | 53.2% | 67.8% | 0.78× | 1.88 |
| 2-5 goals | 50.6% | 53.2% | 64.2% | 0.83× | 1.88 |
| 2-4 goals | 48.3% | 48.7% | 56.6% | 0.86× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 41.6% | 43.6% | 41.4% | 1.05× | 2.30 |
| 3-6 goals | 25.0% | 30.2% | 47.5% | 0.64× | 3.31 |
| 3-5 goals | 24.4% | 24.5% | 44.0% | 0.56× | 4.09 |
| 3-4 goals | 22.1% | 24.5% | 36.3% | 0.67× | 4.09 |
| 4-6 goals | 9.7% | 8.8% | 26.5% | 0.33× | 11.42 |
| 4-5 goals | 9.0% | 8.8% | 22.9% | 0.38× | 11.42 |
| 5-6 goals | 3.0% | 2.5% | 11.4% | 0.22× | 39.38 |
| 7+ goals | 0.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.60× | 39.51 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas never behind | 44.2% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
| Burgos never behind | 31.9% | 35.7% | — | — | 2.80 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.1% | 50.8% | 51.5% | 0.99× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 50.9% | 49.2% | 48.5% | 1.01× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 61.6% | 58.3% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 38.4% | 41.7% | — | — | 2.40 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 56.4% | 59.9% | — | — | 1.67 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 43.6% | 40.1% | — | — | 2.49 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 99.1% | 95.5% | 94.8% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 96.8% | 95.5% | 87.2% | 1.10× | 1.05 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 90.1% | 92.3% | 72.0% | 1.28× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 82.7% | 82.4% | 90.9% | 0.91× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 74.7% | 72.5% | 51.0% | 1.42× | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.5% | 52.4% | 69.3% | 0.76× | 1.91 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 48.5% | 47.6% | 30.7% | 1.55× | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.3% | 27.5% | 49.0% | 0.56× | 3.64 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 17.3% | 17.6% | 9.1% | 1.93× | 5.67 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.9% | 7.7% | 28.0% | 0.28× | 12.93 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 3.2% | 4.5% | 12.8% | 0.35× | 22.24 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 0.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 0.87× | 22.28 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.8% | 97.3% | 98.4% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 99.1% | 97.3% | 94.4% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 96.6% | 97.2% | 84.9% | 1.15× | 1.03 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 88.3% | 86.7% | 64.6% | 1.34× | 1.15 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 65.8% | 67.4% | 38.5% | 1.75× | 1.48 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 34.2% | 32.6% | 61.5% | 0.53× | 3.06 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 11.7% | 13.3% | 35.4% | 0.37× | 7.55 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 3.4% | 2.8% | 15.1% | 0.18× | 36.32 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 0.9% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 0.49× | 36.39 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.68× | 36.42 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 96.3% | 96.8% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 83.6% | 86.4% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 51.6% | 56.1% | — | — | 1.78 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 48.4% | 43.9% | — | — | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 16.4% | 13.6% | — | — | 7.37 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 3.7% | 3.2% | — | — | 31.60 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 91.7% | 89.3% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 73.2% | 77.7% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 63.8% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 36.2% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 26.8% | 22.3% | — | — | 4.49 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 8.3% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.32 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos not to score in both halves | 90.6% | 89.9% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Las Palmas not to score in both halves | 85.1% | 85.9% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Las Palmas to score in both halves | 14.9% | 14.1% | — | — | 7.07 |
| Burgos to score in both halves | 9.4% | 10.1% | — | — | 9.86 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 32.7% | 33.4% | 53.9% | 0.62× | 3.00 |
| Only Las Palmas scores | 30.1% | 33.3% | 23.7% | 1.41× | 3.00 |
| Only Burgos scores | 19.9% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 1.20× | 6.21 |
| Neither team scores | 17.3% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 1.76× | 6.22 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 1 goals | 31.3% | 25.2% | 21.7% | 1.16× | 3.96 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 26.2% | 24.9% | 20.4% | 1.22× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 17.3% | 17.4% | 9.1% | 1.91× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 15.4% | 17.4% | 21.1% | 0.83× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 6.7% | 7.6% | 15.2% | 0.50× | 13.10 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 2.3% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 0.57× | 22.70 |
| 6 or more goals | 0.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 0.85× | 22.73 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 37.0% | 40.1% | — | — | 2.50 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 36.2% | 40.0% | — | — | 2.50 |
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 26.8% | 29.8% | — | — | 3.36 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos not to win both halves | 95.9% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Las Palmas not to win both halves | 91.6% | 94.0% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Las Palmas to win both halves | 8.4% | 6.1% | — | — | 16.53 |
| Burgos to win both halves | 4.1% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.30 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos to win neither half | 62.9% | 65.2% | — | — | 1.53 |
| Las Palmas to win neither half | 50.2% | 54.9% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Las Palmas to win either half | 49.8% | 45.1% | — | — | 2.22 |
| Burgos to win either half | 37.1% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.88 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos not to win to nil | 80.1% | 83.0% | 86.5% | 0.96× | 1.21 |
| Las Palmas not to win to nil | 69.9% | 69.7% | 76.3% | 0.91× | 1.44 |
| Las Palmas to win to nil | 30.1% | 30.3% | 23.7% | 1.28× | 3.30 |
| Burgos to win to nil | 19.9% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 1.26× | 5.88 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 1 | 25.0% | 27.8% | 26.0% | 1.07× | 3.60 |
| Draw | 32.5% | 27.6% | 26.6% | 1.04× | 3.62 |
| Burgos by 1 | 19.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 0.94× | 5.90 |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 10.9% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 0.98× | 8.47 |
| Burgos by 2 | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 1.03× | 13.80 |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 4.4% | 2.7% | 7.7% | 0.35× | 37.00 |
| Burgos by 3+ | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 0.83× | 37.08 |