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Las Palmas v Burgos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Las Palmas win
49.8%
model 47.2%
Draw
28.2%
model 28.2%
Burgos win
22.0%
model 24.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 15.9%
  2. 1-1 12.5%
  3. 0-0 11.9%
  4. 0-1 10.5%
  5. 2-0 9.9%

Goals

Over 2.535.1% Under 2.564.9%
BTTS yes40.2% BTTS no59.8%
Las Palmas 1+72.1% Las Palmas 2+36.4%
Burgos 1+56.3% Burgos 2+20.1%

Expected goals 1.28 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
55/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
93%
★ Best pick
1-2 goals
Multi goal · usually 42%
52.0% fair odds 1.92
strong signal · 1537 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Las Palmas or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 498 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Las Palmas have an estimated 49.8% win probability, against 28.2% for the draw and 22.0% for Burgos. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.27 for Las Palmas and 0.83 for Burgos.

Why Las Palmas

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.2%. A combined 2.10 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Burgos can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Las Palmas's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fabio Silva (0.42), Oliver McBurnie (0.26), Alberto Moleiro (0.21).

Availability

3 of Las Palmas's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Burgos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Las Palmas: 56% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. Burgos: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Las Palmas are the model's most likely outcome at 49.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.9%. Confidence 55/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLWWLLLLLL last 10 scored 8 from 9.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.28–0.83 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.99–0.75 1-0 18% 25% 33%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas to win 40.4% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.33
Draw 32.5% 30.4% 26.6% 1.14× 3.29
Burgos to win 27.1% 27.9% 28.1% 0.99× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas & not both score 30.1% 29.7% 23.7% 1.25× 3.37
Burgos & not both score 19.9% 17.9% 13.5% 1.33× 5.58
Draw & not both score 17.3% 17.9% 9.1% 1.96× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 15.3% 17.9% 17.6% 1.02× 5.59
Las Palmas & both teams score 10.3% 13.3% 21.9% 0.61× 7.55
Burgos & both teams score 7.1% 8.4% 14.7% 0.57× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas & under 3.5 35.6% 34.9% 32.3% 1.08× 2.87
Draw & under 2.5 29.9% 26.0% 20.3% 1.28× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 29.9% 26.0% 20.3% 1.28× 3.84
Las Palmas & under 2.5 26.4% 26.0% 19.3% 1.35× 3.84
Burgos & under 3.5 24.5% 21.6% 19.7% 1.10× 4.62
Las Palmas & over 1.5 22.6% 21.6% 32.5% 0.67× 4.62
Las Palmas & under 1.5 17.8% 18.0% 13.0% 1.38× 5.56
Burgos & under 2.5 18.4% 18.0% 11.6% 1.56× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 17.3% 18.0% 9.1% 1.97× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.3% 18.0% 17.6% 1.02× 5.56
Las Palmas & over 2.5 14.0% 12.9% 26.2% 0.49× 7.77
Burgos & over 1.5 13.6% 12.9% 19.5% 0.66× 7.77
Burgos & under 1.5 13.5% 12.9% 8.7% 1.48× 7.77
Burgos & over 2.5 8.6% 7.9% 16.6% 0.47× 12.70
Las Palmas & over 3.5 4.7% 4.8% 13.2% 0.36× 20.92
Draw & over 2.5 2.6% 4.8% 6.4% 0.74× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 2.6% 4.8% 6.4% 0.74× 20.93
Burgos & over 3.5 2.5% 4.8% 8.5% 0.56× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas (1UP) 50.8% 52.7% 1.90
Burgos (1UP) 38.5% 34.1% 2.93
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas (2UP) 40.4% 47.5% 2.11
Burgos (2UP) 27.1% 25.0% 4.00
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 45.9% 45.5% 2.20
Las Palmas to win 2nd half 30.9% 34.2% 2.92
Burgos to win 2nd half 23.2% 23.0% 4.35
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (+2.5) 95.6% 96.3% 92.3% 1.04× 1.04
Burgos (+1.5) 84.7% 82.4% 80.4% 1.02× 1.21
Las Palmas (+0.5) 72.9% 73.7% 71.9% 1.02× 1.36
Burgos (+0.5) 59.6% 57.0% 54.6% 1.05× 1.75
Las Palmas (-0.5) 40.4% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.33
Burgos (-0.5) 27.1% 26.3% 28.1% 0.94× 3.80
Las Palmas (-1.5) 15.3% 17.6% 19.6% 0.90× 5.69
Las Palmas (-2.5) 4.4% 3.7% 7.7% 0.49× 26.77
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to concede 62.8% 67.2% 77.5% 0.87× 1.49
Burgos clean sheet 37.2% 32.8% 22.5% 1.46× 3.05
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos clean sheet in 1st half 65.4% 70.1% 1.43
Burgos to concede in 1st half 34.6% 29.9% 3.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 6.5 corners 93.6% 90.1% 1.11
Burgos under 5.5 corners 87.5% 85.2% 1.17
Burgos under 4.5 corners 77.1% 75.9% 1.32
Burgos under 3.5 corners 61.6% 61.8% 1.62
Burgos over 2.5 corners 58.3% 57.1% 1.75
Burgos under 2.5 corners 41.7% 42.9% 2.33
Burgos over 3.5 corners 38.4% 38.2% 2.62
Burgos over 4.5 corners 22.9% 24.1% 4.16
Burgos over 5.5 corners 12.5% 14.8% 6.75
Burgos over 6.5 corners 6.4% 9.9% 10.08
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 3.5 goals 99.3% 97.6% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Burgos under 2.5 goals 96.0% 97.5% 89.2% 1.09× 1.03
Burgos under 1.5 goals 82.7% 81.4% 69.5% 1.17× 1.23
Burgos over 0.5 goals 52.7% 53.7% 67.3% 0.80× 1.86
Burgos under 0.5 goals 47.3% 46.3% 32.7% 1.42× 2.16
Burgos over 1.5 goals 17.3% 18.6% 30.5% 0.61× 5.39
Burgos over 2.5 goals 4.0% 2.5% 10.8% 0.23× 40.76
Burgos over 3.5 goals 0.7% 2.4% 3.0% 0.80× 40.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 1.5 in 1st half 96.3% 95.7% 1.05
Burgos under 0.5 in 1st half 74.1% 68.8% 1.45
Burgos over 0.5 in 1st half 25.9% 31.2% 3.20
Burgos over 1.5 in 1st half 3.7% 4.3% 23.36
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas (away no bet) 55.4% 57.5% 63.1% 0.91× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 44.6% 42.5% 36.9% 1.15× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos even goals 61.2% 59.0% 54.7% 1.08× 1.69
Burgos odd goals 38.8% 41.0% 45.3% 0.90× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 95.6% 95.7% 1.05
Both halves over 1.5 goals 4.4% 4.3% 23.20
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 61.3% 57.8% 1.73
Not both halves under 1.5 38.7% 42.2% 2.37
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 34.1% 28.8% 3.47
Las Palmas to score 2+ in a row 22.1% 19.5% 5.13
Burgos to score 2+ in a row 13.7% 12.1% 8.24
Either team to score 3+ in a row 8.4% 5.7% 17.67
Las Palmas to score 3+ in a row 5.8% 5.6% 17.89
Burgos to score 3+ in a row 2.7% 2.6% 38.78
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas corners (+3.5) 95.0% 89.6% 1.12
Las Palmas corners (+2.5) 90.8% 89.6% 1.12
Las Palmas corners (+1.5) 84.3% 79.7% 1.25
Burgos corners (+3.5) 71.8% 70.7% 1.41
Burgos corners (+2.5) 60.8% 61.9% 1.62
Las Palmas corners (-1.5) 51.6% 52.5% 1.91
Burgos corners (+1.5) 48.4% 47.5% 2.10
Las Palmas corners (-2.5) 39.2% 38.1% 2.63
Las Palmas corners (-3.5) 28.2% 29.3% 3.41
Burgos corners (-1.5) 15.7% 20.3% 4.93
Burgos corners (-2.5) 9.2% 10.4% 9.57
Burgos corners (-3.5) 5.0% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 58.6% 46.7% 2.14
9-11 corners 26.4% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 14.9% 21.2% 4.72
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 90.2% 83.3% 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 85.1% 83.0% 1.21
Under 10.5 corners 78.2% 76.5% 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 69.3% 67.7% 1.48
Under 8.5 corners 58.6% 57.7% 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 53.3% 53.3% 1.88
Under 7.5 corners 46.7% 46.7% 2.14
Over 8.5 corners 41.4% 42.3% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 30.7% 32.3% 3.09
Over 10.5 corners 21.8% 23.5% 4.26
Over 11.5 corners 14.9% 17.0% 5.87
Over 12.5 corners 9.8% 16.7% 5.98
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 17.8% 13.8% 13.0% 1.06× 7.26
0-0 17.3% 13.8% 9.1% 1.50× 7.27
0-1 13.5% 11.5% 8.7% 1.31× 8.73
1-1 12.7% 11.4% 11.3% 1.02× 8.73
2-0 8.6% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.47
2-1 6.4% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.47
0-2 4.9% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.50
1-2 4.9% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.50
0-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.35× 58.52
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.52
1-3 1.2% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.52
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.03× 58.52
2-2 2.4% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.51
2-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.52
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.52
3-0 2.8% 1.7% 3.0% 0.56× 58.51
3-1 2.1% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.51
3-2 0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.52
3-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.52
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.12× 58.52
4-0 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.52
4-1 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.52
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.52
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 5.42× 58.52
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.12× 58.52
Any other score 0.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas leading at HT (DNB) 60.3% 65.6% 1.52
Burgos leading at HT (DNB) 39.7% 34.4% 2.91
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas or draw (1X) 72.9% 72.1% 71.9% 1.00× 1.39
Las Palmas or Burgos (12) 67.5% 69.6% 73.4% 0.95× 1.44
Burgos or draw (X2) 59.6% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas or draw at HT 82.0% 84.3% 1.19
Burgos or draw at HT 72.7% 74.6% 1.34
Las Palmas or Burgos at HT 45.3% 51.8% 1.93
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas or draw (1UP) 72.9% 80.0% 1.25
Burgos or draw (1UP) 59.6% 62.9% 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas or draw in 2nd half 76.8% 77.0% 1.30
Burgos or draw in 2nd half 69.1% 65.8% 1.52
Las Palmas or Burgos in 2nd half 54.1% 54.5% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 75.8% 76.4% 1.31
Neither half drawn 24.2% 23.6% 4.24
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas (DNB) 59.9% 58.3% 61.8% 0.94× 1.72
Burgos (DNB) 40.1% 41.7% 38.2% 1.09× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas to score first 47.1% 45.6% 2.19
Burgos to score first 35.6% 32.6% 3.07
No goal scored 17.3% 17.8% 5.61
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 67.3% 58.2% 46.1% 1.26× 1.72
Both teams to score 32.7% 41.8% 53.9% 0.77× 2.39
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 62.1% 50.0% 39.9% 1.26× 2.00
Both score & over 2.5 20.1% 27.7% 42.8% 0.65× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 12.7% 12.3% 11.3% 1.09× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 5.2% 8.4% 6.3% 1.32× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 95.5% 91.7% 85.7% 1.07× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 4.5% 8.3% 14.3% 0.58× 12.05
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 84.5% 74.7% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 15.5% 25.3% 3.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 77.0% 75.2% 1.33
Both score 2nd half only 14.1% 10.6% 9.45
Both score 1st half only 7.5% 6.8% 14.78
Both score in both halves 1.4% 4.8% 20.87
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 91.1% 91.3% 1.10
Both teams to score by HT 8.9% 8.7% 11.52
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 67.4% 66.8% 1.50
A goal in each half 32.6% 33.2% 3.01
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 48.5% 47.4% 30.7% 1.54× 2.11
2-3 goals 41.6% 42.1% 41.4% 1.02× 2.38
4-6 goals 9.7% 7.6% 26.5% 0.29× 13.10
7+ goals 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.15× 55.24
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to score exactly 0 47.3% 42.9% 32.7% 1.31× 2.33
Burgos to score exactly 1 35.4% 36.0% 36.9% 0.97× 2.78
Burgos to score exactly 2 13.2% 12.8% 19.8% 0.65× 7.81
Burgos to score 3+ 4.0% 4.5% 10.8% 0.42× 22.03
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas to score exactly 0 37.2% 35.6% 22.5% 1.58× 2.81
Las Palmas to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.6% 35.6% 1.00× 2.81
Las Palmas to score exactly 2 18.2% 18.9% 25.0% 0.75× 5.30
Las Palmas to score 3+ 7.8% 10.3% 17.0% 0.60× 9.71
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 54.7% 48.2% 2.08
Las Palmas leading at HT 27.3% 25.4% 3.93
Burgos leading at HT 18.0% 15.7% 6.38
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas -1: 2 59.6% 56.7% 1.76
Las Palmas -1: X 25.0% 26.5% 3.77
Las Palmas -1: 1 15.3% 17.5% 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:1) 59.6% 55.9% 54.6% 1.02× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 25.0% 27.0% 26.0% 1.04× 3.70
Las Palmas (0:1) 15.3% 17.8% 19.6% 0.91× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:2) 84.7% 82.8% 80.4% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.9% 11.0% 12.0% 0.92× 9.11
Las Palmas (0:2) 4.4% 3.8% 7.7% 0.49× 26.47
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:3) 95.6% 96.6% 92.3% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.06
Las Palmas (0:3) 1.0% 2.4% 2.4% 0.98× 42.17
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:4) 99.0% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 83.52
Las Palmas (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 2.84× 83.59
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas (1:0) 72.9% 72.5% 71.9% 1.01× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 19.0% 17.0% 18.0% 0.95× 5.87
Burgos (1:0) 8.0% 6.9% 10.2% 0.68× 14.46
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas (2:0) 92.0% 94.0% 89.8% 1.05× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.3% 6.4% 7.0% 0.91× 15.54
Burgos (2:0) 1.8% 2.3% 3.3% 0.69× 44.40
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 41.7% 47.2% 2.12
Halves equal 32.6% 30.0% 3.33
1st half highest scoring 25.7% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas to concede 52.7% 53.1% 67.3% 0.79× 1.88
Las Palmas clean sheet 47.3% 46.9% 32.7% 1.43× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas clean sheet in 1st half 74.1% 68.5% 1.46
Las Palmas to concede in 1st half 25.9% 31.5% 3.17
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas over 2.5 corners 81.6% 80.9% 1.24
Las Palmas under 6.5 corners 75.3% 76.5% 1.31
Las Palmas over 3.5 corners 67.1% 66.7% 1.50
Las Palmas under 5.5 corners 63.3% 62.3% 1.61
Las Palmas over 4.5 corners 51.3% 52.8% 1.90
Las Palmas under 4.5 corners 48.7% 47.2% 2.12
Las Palmas over 5.5 corners 36.7% 37.7% 2.65
Las Palmas under 3.5 corners 32.9% 33.3% 3.00
Las Palmas over 6.5 corners 24.7% 23.5% 4.26
Las Palmas under 2.5 corners 18.4% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas under 3.5 goals 98.2% 96.4% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
Las Palmas under 2.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 83.0% 1.11× 1.08
Las Palmas under 1.5 goals 74.0% 74.2% 58.0% 1.28× 1.35
Las Palmas over 0.5 goals 62.8% 63.4% 77.5% 0.82× 1.58
Las Palmas under 0.5 goals 37.2% 36.6% 22.5% 1.62× 2.74
Las Palmas over 1.5 goals 26.0% 25.8% 42.0% 0.61× 3.88
Las Palmas over 2.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 17.0% 0.45× 12.92
Las Palmas over 3.5 goals 1.8% 3.6% 6.3% 0.58× 27.50
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 95.4% 1.05
Las Palmas under 0.5 in 1st half 65.4% 68.7% 1.46
Las Palmas over 0.5 in 1st half 34.6% 31.3% 3.20
Las Palmas over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 4.6% 21.73
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 54.6% 51.6% 48.7% 1.06× 1.94
Burgos (home no bet) 45.4% 48.4% 51.3% 0.94× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas even goals 56.9% 55.5% 51.8% 1.07× 1.80
Las Palmas odd goals 43.1% 44.5% 48.2% 0.92× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 48.4% 47.3% 2.11
HT 1-0 20.7% 24.2% 4.14
HT 0-1 14.6% 11.0% 9.09
HT 1-1 6.1% 7.0% 14.19
HT 2-0 4.4% 2.3% 43.74
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.3% 43.91
HT 2-1 1.3% 2.3% 43.97
Any other HT score 1.3% 2.3% 43.97
HT 1-2 0.9% 2.3% 44.00
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.3% 44.06
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 24.8% 21.8% 4.58
Las Palmas at HT / Las Palmas at FT 22.1% 21.7% 4.60
Draw at HT / Las Palmas at FT 17.1% 16.8% 5.95
Burgos at HT / Burgos at FT 13.2% 12.7% 7.90
Draw at HT / Burgos at FT 12.9% 12.7% 7.90
Las Palmas at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% 28.83
Burgos at HT / Draw at FT 3.6% 3.5% 28.85
Las Palmas at HT / Burgos at FT 1.0% 3.5% 28.95
Burgos at HT / Las Palmas at FT 1.2% 3.5% 28.94
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas to score last 47.1% 46.7% 2.14
Burgos to score last 35.7% 38.0% 2.63
No goal scored 17.3% 12.5% 7.98
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 82.7% 87.3% 1.15
Las Palmas to lead by 1 at any time 50.8% 50.6% 1.98
Burgos to lead by 1 at any time 38.5% 34.8% 2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 29.0% 25.3% 3.95
Las Palmas to lead by 2 at any time 18.5% 15.0% 6.67
Burgos to lead by 2 at any time 10.6% 10.4% 9.65
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 7.3% 6.6% 15.24
Las Palmas to lead by 3 at any time 5.1% 6.5% 15.35
Burgos to lead by 3 at any time 2.2% 1.6% 64.32
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas most corners 64.1% 60.5% 1.65
Burgos most corners 24.7% 26.0% 3.85
Corners level 11.2% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.9% 83.5% 85.8% 0.97× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.5% 78.6% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
1-3 goals 72.9% 72.4% 63.0% 1.15× 1.38
1-2 goals 57.5% 59.2% 42.0% 1.41× 1.69
2-6 goals 51.3% 53.2% 67.8% 0.78× 1.88
2-5 goals 50.6% 53.2% 64.2% 0.83× 1.88
2-4 goals 48.3% 48.7% 56.6% 0.86× 2.06
2-3 goals 41.6% 43.6% 41.4% 1.05× 2.30
3-6 goals 25.0% 30.2% 47.5% 0.64× 3.31
3-5 goals 24.4% 24.5% 44.0% 0.56× 4.09
3-4 goals 22.1% 24.5% 36.3% 0.67× 4.09
4-6 goals 9.7% 8.8% 26.5% 0.33× 11.42
4-5 goals 9.0% 8.8% 22.9% 0.38× 11.42
5-6 goals 3.0% 2.5% 11.4% 0.22× 39.38
7+ goals 0.2% 2.5% 1.6% 1.60× 39.51
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas never behind 44.2% 48.3% 2.07
Burgos never behind 31.9% 35.7% 2.80
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.1% 50.8% 51.5% 0.99× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.9% 49.2% 48.5% 1.01× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 61.6% 58.3% 1.72
Odd goals in 1st half 38.4% 41.7% 2.40
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 56.4% 59.9% 1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half 43.6% 40.1% 2.49
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.1% 95.5% 94.8% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 96.8% 95.5% 87.2% 1.10× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 72.0% 1.28× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 82.7% 82.4% 90.9% 0.91× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 74.7% 72.5% 51.0% 1.42× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 51.5% 52.4% 69.3% 0.76× 1.91
Under 1.5 goals 48.5% 47.6% 30.7% 1.55× 2.10
Over 2.5 goals 25.3% 27.5% 49.0% 0.56× 3.64
Under 0.5 goals 17.3% 17.6% 9.1% 1.93× 5.67
Over 3.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 28.0% 0.28× 12.93
Over 4.5 goals 3.2% 4.5% 12.8% 0.35× 22.24
Over 5.5 goals 0.9% 4.5% 5.2% 0.87× 22.28
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.8% 97.3% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.1% 97.3% 94.4% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 96.6% 97.2% 84.9% 1.15× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 88.3% 86.7% 64.6% 1.34× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 65.8% 67.4% 38.5% 1.75× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 34.2% 32.6% 61.5% 0.53× 3.06
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 11.7% 13.3% 35.4% 0.37× 7.55
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 3.4% 2.8% 15.1% 0.18× 36.32
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 0.9% 2.7% 5.6% 0.49× 36.39
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.2% 2.7% 1.6% 1.68× 36.42
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 96.3% 96.8% 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 83.6% 86.4% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 51.6% 56.1% 1.78
Under 0.5 in 1st half 48.4% 43.9% 2.28
Over 1.5 in 1st half 16.4% 13.6% 7.37
Over 2.5 in 1st half 3.7% 3.2% 31.60
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 91.7% 89.3% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 73.2% 77.7% 1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 63.8% 62.3% 1.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 36.2% 37.7% 2.65
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.8% 22.3% 4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 8.3% 10.7% 9.32
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to score in both halves 90.6% 89.9% 1.11
Las Palmas not to score in both halves 85.1% 85.9% 1.17
Las Palmas to score in both halves 14.9% 14.1% 7.07
Burgos to score in both halves 9.4% 10.1% 9.86
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 32.7% 33.4% 53.9% 0.62× 3.00
Only Las Palmas scores 30.1% 33.3% 23.7% 1.41× 3.00
Only Burgos scores 19.9% 16.1% 13.5% 1.20× 6.21
Neither team scores 17.3% 16.1% 9.1% 1.76× 6.22
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 31.3% 25.2% 21.7% 1.16× 3.96
Exactly 2 goals 26.2% 24.9% 20.4% 1.22× 4.01
Exactly 0 goals 17.3% 17.4% 9.1% 1.91× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 15.4% 17.4% 21.1% 0.83× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 6.7% 7.6% 15.2% 0.50× 13.10
Exactly 5 goals 2.3% 4.4% 7.8% 0.57× 22.70
6 or more goals 0.9% 4.4% 5.2% 0.85× 22.73
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 37.0% 40.1% 2.50
No goals in 2nd half 36.2% 40.0% 2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half 26.8% 29.8% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to win both halves 95.9% 97.2% 1.03
Las Palmas not to win both halves 91.6% 94.0% 1.06
Las Palmas to win both halves 8.4% 6.1% 16.53
Burgos to win both halves 4.1% 2.8% 35.30
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to win neither half 62.9% 65.2% 1.53
Las Palmas to win neither half 50.2% 54.9% 1.82
Las Palmas to win either half 49.8% 45.1% 2.22
Burgos to win either half 37.1% 34.8% 2.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to win to nil 80.1% 83.0% 86.5% 0.96× 1.21
Las Palmas not to win to nil 69.9% 69.7% 76.3% 0.91× 1.44
Las Palmas to win to nil 30.1% 30.3% 23.7% 1.28× 3.30
Burgos to win to nil 19.9% 17.0% 13.5% 1.26× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Las Palmas by 1 25.0% 27.8% 26.0% 1.07× 3.60
Draw 32.5% 27.6% 26.6% 1.04× 3.62
Burgos by 1 19.0% 17.0% 18.0% 0.94× 5.90
Las Palmas by 2 10.9% 11.8% 12.0% 0.98× 8.47
Burgos by 2 6.3% 7.2% 7.0% 1.03× 13.80
Las Palmas by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 37.00
Burgos by 3+ 1.8% 2.7% 3.3% 0.83× 37.08
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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