Las Palmas v Real Valladolid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyLas Palmas win
61.2%
model 62.8%
Draw
20.5%
model 21.5%
Real Valladolid win
18.3%
model 15.6%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 13.6%
- 2-0 12.3%
- 1-1 10.2%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 3-0 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% | Under 2.5 | 51.1% |
| BTTS yes | 45.5% | BTTS no | 54.5% |
| Las Palmas 1+ | 84.2% | Las Palmas 2+ | 55.0% |
| Real Valladolid 1+ | 54.4% | Real Valladolid 2+ | 18.6% |
Expected goals 1.85 – 0.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
59/100
Data quality
80/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Las Palmas (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 45%
63.5% fair odds 1.58
strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Las Palmas or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 419 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Las Palmas carry the stronger rating, 1573 Elo against 1341.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Las Palmas have an estimated 61.2% win probability, against 20.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Real Valladolid. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.84 for Las Palmas and 0.79 for Real Valladolid.
Why Las Palmas
Las Palmas carry the stronger rating, 1573 Elo against 1341. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 20.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Real Valladolid can win
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Las Palmas were missing 1.09 expected goal involvements a match against 0.61.
Key players
Las Palmas's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fabio Silva (0.42), Oliver McBurnie (0.26), Alberto Moleiro (0.21). Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22).
Availability
3 of Las Palmas's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Las Palmas: 56% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Las Palmas are the model's most likely outcome at 61.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.6%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWWLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.3 xG
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.85–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.66–0.72 | 1-0 16% | 43% | 41% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to win | 60.3% | 58.0% | 45.4% | 1.28× | 1.72 |
| Draw | 23.5% | 24.4% | 26.6% | 0.92× | 4.09 |
| Real Valladolid to win | 16.3% | 19.3% | 28.1% | 0.69× | 5.17 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas & not both score | 39.7% | 33.3% | 23.7% | 1.41× | 3.01 |
| Las Palmas & both teams score | 20.6% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 1.00× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 14.6% | 13.3% | 17.6% | 0.76× | 7.54 |
| Real Valladolid & not both score | 10.0% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 0.98× | 7.55 |
| Draw & not both score | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 0.92× | 11.92 |
| Real Valladolid & both teams score | 6.2% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 0.57× | 11.93 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas & over 1.5 | 44.6% | 40.3% | 32.5% | 1.24× | 2.48 |
| Las Palmas & under 3.5 | 44.6% | 40.3% | 32.3% | 1.25× | 2.48 |
| Las Palmas & over 2.5 | 31.9% | 30.8% | 26.2% | 1.18× | 3.24 |
| Las Palmas & under 2.5 | 28.4% | 26.0% | 19.3% | 1.35× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 19.7% | 18.0% | 20.3% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 19.7% | 18.0% | 20.3% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Las Palmas & under 1.5 | 15.6% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 1.38× | 5.56 |
| Las Palmas & over 3.5 | 15.6% | 18.0% | 13.2% | 1.36× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 14.6% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 0.73× | 7.77 |
| Real Valladolid & under 3.5 | 13.9% | 12.9% | 19.7% | 0.65× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 0.86× | 12.70 |
| Real Valladolid & over 1.5 | 9.3% | 7.9% | 19.5% | 0.40× | 12.70 |
| Real Valladolid & under 2.5 | 9.3% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 0.68× | 12.70 |
| Real Valladolid & under 1.5 | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 0.90× | 12.70 |
| Real Valladolid & over 2.5 | 6.9% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.47× | 12.70 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.75× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.75× | 20.93 |
| Real Valladolid & over 3.5 | 2.3% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 0.56× | 20.94 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (1UP) | 70.3% | 75.6% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Real Valladolid (1UP) | 30.6% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (2UP) | 60.3% | 67.4% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Real Valladolid (2UP) | 16.3% | 17.4% | — | — | 5.75 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to win 2nd half | 47.1% | 45.6% | — | — | 2.19 |
| 2nd half drawn | 36.4% | 36.3% | — | — | 2.76 |
| Real Valladolid to win 2nd half | 16.5% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (+2.5) | 85.2% | 88.5% | 92.3% | 0.96× | 1.13 |
| Las Palmas (+0.5) | 83.7% | 82.4% | 71.9% | 1.15× | 1.21 |
| Real Valladolid (+1.5) | 66.6% | 68.7% | 80.4% | 0.85× | 1.46 |
| Las Palmas (-0.5) | 60.3% | 62.9% | 45.4% | 1.38× | 1.59 |
| Real Valladolid (+0.5) | 39.7% | 37.1% | 54.6% | 0.68× | 2.69 |
| Las Palmas (-1.5) | 33.4% | 31.3% | 19.6% | 1.60× | 3.19 |
| Real Valladolid (-0.5) | 16.3% | 17.6% | 28.1% | 0.63× | 5.68 |
| Las Palmas (-2.5) | 14.8% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 1.50× | 8.68 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid to concede | 81.0% | 81.3% | 77.5% | 1.05× | 1.23 |
| Real Valladolid clean sheet | 19.0% | 18.7% | 22.5% | 0.83× | 5.35 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid clean sheet in 1st half | 48.9% | 50.6% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Real Valladolid to concede in 1st half | 51.1% | 49.4% | — | — | 2.03 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid under 6.5 corners | 86.9% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Real Valladolid under 5.5 corners | 77.7% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Real Valladolid over 2.5 corners | 70.6% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Real Valladolid under 4.5 corners | 64.4% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Real Valladolid over 3.5 corners | 52.3% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Real Valladolid under 3.5 corners | 47.7% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Real Valladolid over 4.5 corners | 35.6% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Real Valladolid under 2.5 corners | 29.4% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Real Valladolid over 5.5 corners | 22.3% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Real Valladolid over 6.5 corners | 13.1% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.75 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid under 3.5 goals | 99.4% | 97.6% | 97.0% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals | 96.3% | 97.5% | 89.2% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Real Valladolid under 1.5 goals | 83.7% | 81.4% | 69.5% | 1.17× | 1.23 |
| Real Valladolid over 0.5 goals | 51.4% | 53.7% | 67.3% | 0.80× | 1.86 |
| Real Valladolid under 0.5 goals | 48.6% | 46.3% | 32.7% | 1.42× | 2.16 |
| Real Valladolid over 1.5 goals | 16.3% | 18.6% | 30.5% | 0.61× | 5.39 |
| Real Valladolid over 2.5 goals | 3.7% | 2.5% | 10.8% | 0.23× | 40.78 |
| Real Valladolid over 3.5 goals | 0.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.80× | 40.95 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.6% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 1st half | 74.9% | 68.9% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 1st half | 25.1% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.4% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.56 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (away no bet) | 72.0% | 68.5% | 63.1% | 1.09× | 1.46 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 28.0% | 31.5% | 36.9% | 0.85× | 3.18 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid even goals | 61.8% | 59.0% | 54.7% | 1.08× | 1.69 |
| Real Valladolid odd goals | 38.2% | 41.0% | 45.3% | 0.90× | 2.44 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 89.4% | 88.0% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 10.6% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.35 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 55.9% | 59.6% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 40.4% | — | — | 2.48 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 51.9% | 51.4% | — | — | 1.95 |
| Las Palmas to score 2+ in a row | 43.9% | 38.4% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 19.9% | 16.5% | — | — | 6.07 |
| Las Palmas to score 3+ in a row | 18.1% | 16.4% | — | — | 6.09 |
| Real Valladolid to score 2+ in a row | 11.2% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.29 |
| Real Valladolid to score 3+ in a row | 1.9% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.27 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas corners (+3.5) | 87.8% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Real Valladolid corners (+3.5) | 84.5% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Las Palmas corners (+2.5) | 80.6% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Real Valladolid corners (+2.5) | 76.2% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Las Palmas corners (+1.5) | 70.9% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Real Valladolid corners (+1.5) | 65.6% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Las Palmas corners (-1.5) | 34.4% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Real Valladolid corners (-1.5) | 29.1% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.41 |
| Las Palmas corners (-2.5) | 23.8% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Real Valladolid corners (-2.5) | 19.4% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.93 |
| Las Palmas corners (-3.5) | 15.5% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.93 |
| Real Valladolid corners (-3.5) | 12.2% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 58.4% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.7% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 14.9% | 21.2% | — | — | 4.72 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 90.2% | 83.3% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 85.1% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 78.1% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 69.2% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 58.4% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 53.6% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 46.4% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 41.6% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 30.8% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 21.9% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 14.9% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 9.8% | 16.7% | — | — | 5.98 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.6% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 1.05× | 7.27 |
| 2-0 | 12.7% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 1.78× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 1.02× | 8.74 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 0.81× | 13.47 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 0.74× | 13.47 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 0.85× | 13.47 |
| 3-0 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 2.43× | 13.47 |
| 3-1 | 5.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.64× | 13.47 |
| 0-2 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.58× | 58.51 |
| 0-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.35× | 58.52 |
| 0-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.52 |
| 1-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.24× | 58.50 |
| 1-3 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 58.52 |
| 1-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.03× | 58.52 |
| 2-2 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 5.7% | 0.30× | 58.50 |
| 2-3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.52 |
| 2-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.52 |
| 3-2 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.51 |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.52 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.13× | 58.52 |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.48× | 58.51 |
| 4-1 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.90× | 58.51 |
| 4-2 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.48× | 58.52 |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.42× | 58.52 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.12× | 58.52 |
| Any other score | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.51 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas leading at HT (DNB) | 75.6% | 77.6% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Real Valladolid leading at HT (DNB) | 24.4% | 22.4% | — | — | 4.46 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw (1X) | 83.7% | 80.7% | 71.9% | 1.12× | 1.24 |
| Las Palmas or Real Valladolid (12) | 76.5% | 75.6% | 73.4% | 1.03× | 1.32 |
| Real Valladolid or draw (X2) | 39.7% | 42.0% | 54.6% | 0.77× | 2.38 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw at HT | 86.4% | 88.1% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Real Valladolid or draw at HT | 58.1% | 56.6% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Las Palmas or Real Valladolid at HT | 55.5% | 56.5% | — | — | 1.77 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw (1UP) | 83.7% | 88.5% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Real Valladolid or draw (1UP) | 39.7% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas or draw in 2nd half | 83.5% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Las Palmas or Real Valladolid in 2nd half | 63.6% | 63.7% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Real Valladolid or draw in 2nd half | 52.9% | 54.4% | — | — | 1.84 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 65.0% | 69.3% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Neither half drawn | 35.0% | 30.7% | — | — | 3.26 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (DNB) | 78.8% | 74.6% | 61.8% | 1.21× | 1.34 |
| Real Valladolid (DNB) | 21.2% | 25.4% | 38.2% | 0.66× | 3.94 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to score first | 63.5% | 64.7% | — | — | 1.55 |
| Real Valladolid to score first | 27.6% | 28.2% | — | — | 3.54 |
| No goal scored | 8.9% | 7.5% | — | — | 13.25 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 58.7% | 54.9% | 46.1% | 1.19× | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 45.1% | 53.9% | 0.84× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 46.7% | 44.3% | 39.9% | 1.11× | 2.26 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 30.6% | 34.3% | 42.8% | 0.80× | 2.92 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 12.0% | 12.3% | 6.3% | 1.95× | 8.12 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 1.09× | 8.12 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 91.9% | 89.1% | 85.7% | 1.04× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 8.1% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 0.76× | 9.18 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 78.6% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 21.4% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 68.6% | 62.8% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 18.6% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.31 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.0% | 6.8% | — | — | 14.64 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.8% | 4.9% | — | — | 20.55 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 87.3% | 85.8% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.7% | 14.2% | — | — | 7.06 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 52.8% | 53.4% | — | — | 1.87 |
| A goal in each half | 47.2% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.15 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.7% | 47.4% | 41.4% | 1.14× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 31.5% | 30.8% | 30.7% | 1.00× | 3.25 |
| 4-6 goals | 20.7% | 22.8% | 26.5% | 0.86× | 4.38 |
| 7+ goals | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.15× | 55.14 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid to score exactly 0 | 48.6% | 43.0% | 32.7% | 1.31× | 2.33 |
| Real Valladolid to score exactly 1 | 35.1% | 36.0% | 36.9% | 0.97× | 2.78 |
| Real Valladolid to score exactly 2 | 12.6% | 12.8% | 19.8% | 0.65× | 7.81 |
| Real Valladolid to score 3+ | 3.7% | 4.5% | 10.8% | 0.42× | 22.05 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to score exactly 1 | 31.5% | 32.6% | 35.6% | 0.92× | 3.06 |
| Las Palmas to score exactly 2 | 26.2% | 26.5% | 25.0% | 1.06× | 3.77 |
| Las Palmas to score 3+ | 23.3% | 23.3% | 17.0% | 1.37× | 4.30 |
| Las Palmas to score exactly 0 | 19.0% | 18.9% | 22.5% | 0.84× | 5.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 44.5% | 43.5% | — | — | 2.30 |
| Las Palmas leading at HT | 41.9% | 43.4% | — | — | 2.30 |
| Real Valladolid leading at HT | 13.6% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.42 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas -1: 2 | 39.7% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Las Palmas -1: 1 | 33.4% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Las Palmas -1: X | 26.9% | 26.6% | — | — | 3.77 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:1) | 39.7% | 37.4% | 54.6% | 0.68× | 2.68 |
| Las Palmas (0:1) | 33.4% | 30.1% | 19.6% | 1.54× | 3.33 |
| Draw (0:1) | 26.9% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 1.04× | 3.70 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:2) | 66.6% | 72.1% | 80.4% | 0.90× | 1.39 |
| Draw (0:2) | 18.7% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 1.28× | 6.53 |
| Las Palmas (0:2) | 14.8% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 1.43× | 9.10 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:3) | 85.2% | 90.7% | 92.3% | 0.98× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 9.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 1.09× | 17.14 |
| Las Palmas (0:3) | 5.3% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 2.40× | 17.21 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:4) | 94.7% | 94.7% | 97.6% | 0.97× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 3.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.57× | 83.17 |
| Las Palmas (0:4) | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.85× | 83.43 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (1:0) | 83.7% | 81.5% | 71.9% | 1.13× | 1.23 |
| Draw (1:0) | 11.8% | 12.8% | 18.0% | 0.71× | 7.81 |
| Real Valladolid (1:0) | 4.4% | 3.2% | 10.2% | 0.31× | 31.39 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas (2:0) | 95.6% | 96.9% | 89.8% | 1.08× | 1.03 |
| Draw (2:0) | 3.5% | 2.3% | 7.0% | 0.32× | 44.28 |
| Real Valladolid (2:0) | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.69× | 44.45 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 45.8% | 48.1% | — | — | 2.08 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.5% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Halves equal | 26.7% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to concede | 51.4% | 53.1% | 67.3% | 0.79× | 1.88 |
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 48.6% | 46.9% | 32.7% | 1.43× | 2.13 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas clean sheet in 1st half | 74.9% | 68.6% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Las Palmas to concede in 1st half | 25.1% | 31.4% | — | — | 3.19 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas under 6.5 corners | 84.2% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Las Palmas under 5.5 corners | 74.1% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Las Palmas over 2.5 corners | 73.8% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Las Palmas under 4.5 corners | 60.3% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Las Palmas over 3.5 corners | 56.4% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Las Palmas under 3.5 corners | 43.6% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Las Palmas over 4.5 corners | 39.7% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Las Palmas under 2.5 corners | 26.2% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Las Palmas over 5.5 corners | 25.9% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Las Palmas over 6.5 corners | 15.8% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.25 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas under 3.5 goals | 91.2% | 92.3% | 93.7% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Las Palmas over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | 82.1% | 77.5% | 1.06× | 1.22 |
| Las Palmas under 2.5 goals | 76.7% | 77.7% | 83.0% | 0.94× | 1.29 |
| Las Palmas under 1.5 goals | 50.5% | 53.2% | 58.0% | 0.92× | 1.88 |
| Las Palmas over 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 46.8% | 42.0% | 1.11× | 2.14 |
| Las Palmas over 2.5 goals | 23.3% | 22.3% | 17.0% | 1.31× | 4.49 |
| Las Palmas under 0.5 goals | 19.0% | 17.9% | 22.5% | 0.79× | 5.59 |
| Las Palmas over 3.5 goals | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 1.23× | 12.91 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas under 1.5 in 1st half | 83.9% | 84.6% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Las Palmas under 0.5 in 1st half | 48.9% | 50.7% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Las Palmas over 0.5 in 1st half | 51.1% | 49.3% | — | — | 2.03 |
| Las Palmas over 1.5 in 1st half | 16.1% | 15.4% | — | — | 6.48 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 59.1% | 56.7% | 48.7% | 1.17× | 1.76 |
| Real Valladolid (home no bet) | 40.9% | 43.3% | 51.3% | 0.84× | 2.31 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas even goals | 51.8% | 50.6% | 51.8% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| Las Palmas odd goals | 48.2% | 49.4% | 48.2% | 1.03× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 36.6% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| HT 1-0 | 26.3% | 29.0% | — | — | 3.45 |
| HT 0-1 | 10.6% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.13 |
| HT 2-0 | 9.4% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.14 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.17 |
| Any other HT score | 3.9% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.78 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.7% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.87 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.5% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.96 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.1% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.99 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.4% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.04 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas at HT / Las Palmas at FT | 36.9% | 40.8% | — | — | 2.45 |
| Draw at HT / Las Palmas at FT | 21.2% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 15.9% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.95 |
| Real Valladolid at HT / Real Valladolid at FT | 7.8% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.57 |
| Draw at HT / Real Valladolid at FT | 7.5% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.58 |
| Las Palmas at HT / Draw at FT | 4.1% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.83 |
| Real Valladolid at HT / Draw at FT | 3.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.85 |
| Real Valladolid at HT / Las Palmas at FT | 2.2% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.90 |
| Las Palmas at HT / Real Valladolid at FT | 0.9% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.95 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas to score last | 63.5% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Real Valladolid to score last | 27.6% | 27.0% | — | — | 3.70 |
| No goal scored | 8.9% | 7.5% | — | — | 13.25 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 91.1% | 92.6% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Las Palmas to lead by 1 at any time | 70.3% | 74.0% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 45.4% | 44.0% | — | — | 2.27 |
| Las Palmas to lead by 2 at any time | 38.3% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Real Valladolid to lead by 1 at any time | 30.6% | 29.2% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 18.0% | 15.0% | — | — | 6.68 |
| Las Palmas to lead by 3 at any time | 16.6% | 15.0% | — | — | 6.69 |
| Real Valladolid to lead by 2 at any time | 7.2% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.24 |
| Real Valladolid to lead by 3 at any time | 1.4% | 1.5% | — | — | 65.26 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas most corners | 46.6% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Real Valladolid most corners | 40.8% | 43.5% | — | — | 2.30 |
| Corners level | 12.6% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.6% | 87.4% | 85.8% | 1.02× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 81.7% | 83.5% | 78.1% | 1.07× | 1.20 |
| 1-3 goals | 69.3% | 69.0% | 63.0% | 1.10× | 1.45 |
| 2-6 goals | 67.4% | 69.0% | 67.8% | 1.02× | 1.45 |
| 2-5 goals | 65.0% | 69.0% | 64.2% | 1.07× | 1.45 |
| 2-4 goals | 59.1% | 59.2% | 56.6% | 1.05× | 1.69 |
| 1-2 goals | 48.5% | 48.7% | 42.0% | 1.16× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.7% | 48.7% | 41.4% | 1.17× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 41.5% | 43.6% | 47.5% | 0.92× | 2.30 |
| 3-5 goals | 39.1% | 39.2% | 44.0% | 0.89× | 2.55 |
| 3-4 goals | 33.2% | 35.4% | 36.3% | 0.97× | 2.83 |
| 4-6 goals | 20.7% | 24.5% | 26.5% | 0.92× | 4.09 |
| 4-5 goals | 18.3% | 18.6% | 22.9% | 0.81× | 5.37 |
| 5-6 goals | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 0.77× | 11.43 |
| 7+ goals | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.61× | 39.47 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas never behind | 60.5% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Real Valladolid never behind | 20.7% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.15 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 49.8% | 50.8% | 48.5% | 1.05× | 1.97 |
| Odd number of goals | 50.2% | 49.2% | 51.5% | 0.95× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 56.6% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 43.4% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 53.0% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.0% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 96.5% | 95.5% | 94.8% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91.1% | 92.3% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 90.6% | 92.3% | 87.2% | 1.06× | 1.08 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78.2% | 77.4% | 72.0% | 1.07× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | 66.2% | 69.3% | 0.96× | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.4% | 58.8% | 51.0% | 1.15× | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.6% | 41.2% | 49.0% | 0.84× | 2.43 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 33.8% | 30.7% | 1.10× | 2.96 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% | 22.6% | 28.0% | 0.81× | 4.42 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9.4% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 0.60× | 12.93 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 0.85× | 12.93 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 0.87× | 22.23 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.9% | 97.3% | 98.4% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 96.3% | 97.2% | 94.4% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 89.3% | 86.8% | 84.9% | 1.02× | 1.15 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 72.5% | 72.6% | 64.6% | 1.12× | 1.38 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 57.5% | 55.5% | 61.5% | 0.90× | 1.80 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 42.5% | 44.5% | 38.5% | 1.15× | 2.25 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 27.5% | 27.4% | 35.4% | 0.77× | 3.65 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 10.7% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 0.88× | 7.55 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 0.49× | 36.31 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.68× | 36.39 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 91.9% | 92.7% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 73.5% | 70.9% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 63.4% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 36.6% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 26.5% | 29.1% | — | — | 3.44 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 8.1% | 7.3% | — | — | 13.79 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 83.8% | 82.9% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 74.9% | 77.8% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 60.0% | 54.8% | — | — | 1.83 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 40.0% | 45.2% | — | — | 2.21 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 25.1% | 22.2% | — | — | 4.51 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 16.2% | 17.1% | — | — | 5.86 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid not to score in both halves | 91.2% | 90.0% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Las Palmas not to score in both halves | 68.7% | 70.3% | — | — | 1.42 |
| Las Palmas to score in both halves | 31.3% | 29.7% | — | — | 3.37 |
| Real Valladolid to score in both halves | 8.8% | 10.0% | — | — | 9.99 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 41.3% | 46.6% | 53.9% | 0.86× | 2.15 |
| Only Las Palmas scores | 39.7% | 39.9% | 23.7% | 1.69× | 2.51 |
| Only Real Valladolid scores | 10.0% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 0.81× | 9.15 |
| Neither team scores | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 0.79× | 13.90 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 25.9% | 24.9% | 20.4% | 1.22× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 22.6% | 22.6% | 21.7% | 1.04× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 20.8% | 22.6% | 21.1% | 1.07× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 12.4% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 0.79× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 0.84× | 13.09 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 0.98× | 13.10 |
| 6 or more goals | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 0.86× | 22.69 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 40.0% | 43.7% | — | — | 2.29 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 34.9% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 25.1% | 29.7% | — | — | 3.36 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid not to win both halves | 97.8% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Las Palmas not to win both halves | 80.3% | 84.0% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Las Palmas to win both halves | 19.7% | 16.0% | — | — | 6.24 |
| Real Valladolid to win both halves | 2.2% | 2.8% | — | — | 36.13 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid to win neither half | 72.2% | 73.0% | — | — | 1.37 |
| Las Palmas to win either half | 69.4% | 68.0% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Las Palmas to win neither half | 30.6% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Real Valladolid to win either half | 27.8% | 27.0% | — | — | 3.70 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid not to win to nil | 90.0% | 88.2% | 86.5% | 1.02× | 1.13 |
| Las Palmas not to win to nil | 60.3% | 66.7% | 76.3% | 0.87× | 1.50 |
| Las Palmas to win to nil | 39.7% | 33.3% | 23.7% | 1.41× | 3.00 |
| Real Valladolid to win to nil | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 0.87× | 8.49 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 1 | 26.9% | 27.8% | 26.0% | 1.07× | 3.60 |
| Draw | 23.5% | 24.2% | 26.6% | 0.91× | 4.14 |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 18.7% | 17.0% | 12.0% | 1.41× | 5.90 |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 14.8% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 1.54× | 8.46 |
| Real Valladolid by 1 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 18.0% | 0.66× | 8.47 |
| Real Valladolid by 2 | 3.5% | 2.7% | 7.0% | 0.38× | 37.02 |
| Real Valladolid by 3+ | 0.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 0.83× | 37.11 |