Leeds United v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 August 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 22
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 18
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.17
Goals − xG
-0.18 – -0.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leeds United win
41.1%
Draw
28.6%
Brentford win
30.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.46 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leeds United 1.18 xGBrentford 1.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leeds United attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Justin |
| 7' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 8' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 9' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 10' |
Brentford |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 13' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 20' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Brentford |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 40' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 40' |
Brentford |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 49' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Brentford |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 56' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nathan Collins |
| 56' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 62' |
Leeds United |
Harry Wilson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 68' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 71' |
Brentford |
Michael Kayode | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 72' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 76' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.77 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lukas Nmecha |
| 78' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 80' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 80' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 83' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 90' |
Brentford |
Callum Wilson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.46 |
| Mamadou Sangaré DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| Jaidon Anthony AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rico Henry Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Hickey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| James Justin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| James Trafford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noah Okafor AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Nico Elvedi Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brenden Aaronson AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Wilson Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel James Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.86 | 0.93 |