Mallorca v CD Sabadell — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-0 22.6%
- 1-0 20.4%
- 0-1 14.0%
- 1-1 11.7%
- 2-0 8.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 18.5% | Under 2.5 | 81.5% |
| BTTS yes | 26.0% | BTTS no | 74.0% |
| Mallorca 1+ | 58.4% | Mallorca 2+ | 21.9% |
| CD Sabadell 1+ | 45.0% | CD Sabadell 2+ | 12.1% |
Expected goals 0.88 – 0.60. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- CD Sabadell have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Mallorca have an estimated 40.3% win probability, against 35.9% for the draw and 23.8% for CD Sabadell. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.88 for Mallorca and 0.60 for CD Sabadell.
Why Mallorca
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 35.9%. A combined 1.48 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why CD Sabadell can win
CD Sabadell carry the stronger rating, 1523 Elo against 1485.
Key players
Mallorca's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Vedat Muriqi (0.60), Zito (0.22), Sergi Darder (0.20).
Availability
1 of Mallorca's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for CD Sabadell, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Mallorca: 58% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. CD Sabadell: 39% possession, 13.3 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Mallorca are the model's most likely outcome at 40.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-0 at 22.6%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.88–0.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.59–0.47 | 0-0 34% | 9% | 16% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.