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Manta F.C. v Aucas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Manta F.C. win
26.5%
model 26.4%
Draw
26.5%
model 26.2%
Aucas win
47.0%
model 47.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 13.6%
  2. 1-1 12.3%
  3. 1-0 9.5%
  4. 0-2 9.2%
  5. 0-0 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.542.1% Under 2.557.9%
BTTS yes46.2% BTTS no53.8%
Manta F.C. 1+61.9% Manta F.C. 2+25.1%
Aucas 1+75.3% Aucas 2+40.8%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Aucas or draw (X2)
Double chance · usually 56%
72.3% fair odds 1.38
strong signal · 1552 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Manta F.C. not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Aucas carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1377.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Aucas have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for Manta F.C. and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.96 for Manta F.C. and 1.40 for Aucas.

Why Manta F.C.

Nothing in the data singles out Manta F.C..

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. A combined 2.36 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Aucas can win

Aucas carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1377. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Manta F.C., so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Aucas, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manta F.C.: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Aucas: 42% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 6.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Aucas are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.97–1.40 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.91–1.36 0-1 15% 39% 44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas to win 47.8% 47.5% 29.6% 1.61× 2.11
Draw 26.8% 27.9% 26.4% 1.06× 3.59
Manta F.C. to win 25.4% 27.9% 44.2% 0.63× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas & not both score 30.5% 29.7% 18.0% 1.65× 3.37
Aucas & both teams score 17.3% 17.9% 11.7% 1.53× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 16.9% 17.9% 18.6% 0.96× 5.58
Manta F.C. & not both score 15.7% 17.9% 25.5% 0.70× 5.58
Draw & not both score 9.9% 8.4% 8.0% 1.05× 11.94
Manta F.C. & both teams score 9.7% 8.4% 19.0% 0.44× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas & under 3.5 37.2% 34.9% 22.3% 1.57× 2.86
Aucas & over 1.5 33.2% 30.9% 19.1% 1.61× 3.24
Aucas & under 2.5 24.2% 21.6% 15.1% 1.44× 4.62
Aucas & over 2.5 23.6% 21.6% 14.7% 1.47× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 22.3% 21.6% 22.1% 0.98× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 22.3% 21.6% 22.1% 0.98× 4.62
Manta F.C. & under 3.5 21.2% 21.6% 33.3% 0.65× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 16.9% 18.0% 18.6% 0.97× 5.56
Manta F.C. & over 1.5 15.6% 18.0% 32.2% 0.56× 5.56
Aucas & under 1.5 14.6% 12.9% 10.6% 1.21× 7.77
Manta F.C. & under 2.5 14.1% 12.9% 19.9% 0.65× 7.77
Manta F.C. & over 2.5 11.3% 12.9% 24.5% 0.52× 7.78
Aucas & over 3.5 10.6% 12.9% 7.4% 1.73× 7.78
Draw & under 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 8.0% 0.99× 12.69
Manta F.C. & under 1.5 9.8% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 1.07× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 1.07× 20.93
Manta F.C. & over 3.5 4.2% 4.8% 11.2% 0.43× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (1UP) 60.3% 63.0% 1.59
Manta F.C. (1UP) 40.2% 38.6% 2.59
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (2UP) 47.8% 49.9% 2.00
Manta F.C. (2UP) 25.4% 24.5% 4.09
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas to win 2nd half 39.9% 36.2% 2.77
2nd half drawn 38.4% 36.1% 2.77
Manta F.C. to win 2nd half 21.6% 22.9% 4.36
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (+2.5) 97.8% 96.3% 92.2% 1.04× 1.04
Aucas (+1.5) 91.5% 92.1% 80.5% 1.14× 1.09
Aucas (+0.5) 74.6% 73.7% 55.8% 1.32× 1.36
Manta F.C. (+0.5) 52.2% 52.3% 70.4% 0.74× 1.91
Aucas (-0.5) 47.8% 47.7% 29.6% 1.61× 2.10
Manta F.C. (-0.5) 25.4% 26.3% 44.2% 0.59× 3.80
Manta F.C. (-1.5) 8.5% 7.9% 19.5% 0.40× 12.66
Manta F.C. (-2.5) 2.2% 3.7% 7.8% 0.48× 26.87
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas to concede 59.5% 62.8% 74.2% 0.85× 1.59
Aucas clean sheet 40.5% 37.2% 25.8% 1.44× 2.69
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas clean sheet in 1st half 67.8% 70.3% 1.42
Aucas to concede in 1st half 32.2% 29.7% 3.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas under 6.5 corners 86.3% 84.9% 1.18
Aucas under 5.5 corners 76.8% 75.8% 1.32
Aucas over 2.5 corners 71.7% 72.3% 1.38
Aucas under 4.5 corners 63.3% 61.4% 1.63
Aucas over 3.5 corners 53.6% 52.4% 1.91
Aucas under 3.5 corners 46.4% 47.6% 2.10
Aucas over 4.5 corners 36.7% 38.6% 2.59
Aucas under 2.5 corners 28.3% 27.7% 3.61
Aucas over 5.5 corners 23.2% 24.2% 4.13
Aucas over 6.5 corners 13.7% 15.1% 6.62
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas under 3.5 goals 95.1% 97.6% 96.8% 1.01× 1.03
Aucas under 2.5 goals 84.3% 81.5% 89.8% 0.91× 1.23
Aucas over 0.5 goals 74.3% 71.9% 66.7% 1.08× 1.39
Aucas under 1.5 goals 60.6% 62.9% 73.8% 0.85× 1.59
Aucas over 1.5 goals 39.4% 37.1% 26.2% 1.41× 2.70
Aucas under 0.5 goals 25.7% 28.1% 33.3% 0.84× 3.56
Aucas over 2.5 goals 15.7% 18.5% 10.2% 1.81× 5.40
Aucas over 3.5 goals 4.9% 2.4% 3.2% 0.77× 40.93
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas under 1.5 in 1st half 89.6% 89.7% 1.12
Aucas under 0.5 in 1st half 58.0% 63.0% 1.59
Aucas over 0.5 in 1st half 42.0% 37.0% 2.70
Aucas over 1.5 in 1st half 10.4% 10.3% 9.68
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 51.3% 51.2% 37.4% 1.37× 1.95
Manta F.C. (away no bet) 48.7% 48.8% 62.6% 0.78× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas even goals 53.3% 52.7% 51.7% 1.02× 1.90
Aucas odd goals 46.7% 47.3% 48.3% 0.98× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.8% 92.0% 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.2% 8.0% 12.57
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 53.0% 50.7% 1.97
Both halves under 1.5 goals 47.0% 49.3% 2.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 46.8% 46.0% 2.17
Aucas to score 2+ in a row 33.3% 28.5% 3.50
Manta F.C. to score 2+ in a row 17.1% 16.4% 6.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.8% 12.1% 8.29
Aucas to score 3+ in a row 11.2% 12.0% 8.36
Manta F.C. to score 3+ in a row 3.7% 2.6% 37.83
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. corners (+3.5) 87.6% 84.2% 1.19
Aucas corners (+3.5) 84.8% 80.0% 1.25
Manta F.C. corners (+2.5) 80.2% 80.0% 1.25
Aucas corners (+2.5) 76.5% 75.5% 1.33
Manta F.C. corners (+1.5) 70.5% 69.9% 1.43
Aucas corners (+1.5) 66.0% 66.8% 1.50
Manta F.C. corners (-1.5) 34.0% 33.2% 3.01
Aucas corners (-1.5) 29.5% 30.1% 3.32
Manta F.C. corners (-2.5) 23.5% 24.5% 4.08
Aucas corners (-2.5) 19.8% 20.0% 5.00
Manta F.C. corners (-3.5) 15.2% 20.0% 5.01
Aucas corners (-3.5) 12.4% 15.8% 6.32
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 57.2% 47.9% 2.09
9-11 corners 27.2% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 15.6% 21.6% 4.63
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 89.8% 82.8% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 84.4% 79.9% 1.25
Under 10.5 corners 77.3% 76.6% 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 68.1% 67.9% 1.47
Under 8.5 corners 57.2% 57.8% 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 54.9% 52.3% 1.91
Under 7.5 corners 45.1% 47.7% 2.09
Over 8.5 corners 42.8% 42.2% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 31.9% 32.1% 3.12
Over 10.5 corners 22.7% 23.4% 4.28
Over 11.5 corners 15.6% 20.1% 4.97
Over 12.5 corners 10.2% 17.2% 5.83
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 14.6% 11.5% 10.6% 1.08× 8.73
1-1 12.3% 11.5% 14.3% 0.80× 8.73
0-0 9.9% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.46
0-2 9.6% 7.4% 4.6% 1.60× 13.46
1-0 9.8% 7.4% 12.3% 0.61× 13.46
1-2 8.7% 7.4% 5.8% 1.29× 13.46
2-1 5.8% 7.4% 10.4% 0.71× 13.46
0-3 4.4% 1.7% 1.9% 0.92× 58.57
0-4 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.53× 58.58
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.57
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.53× 58.58
2-0 4.3% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.57
2-2 3.9% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.57
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 0.77× 58.58
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.30× 58.59
3-0 1.3% 1.7% 3.3% 0.51× 58.59
3-1 1.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.58
3-2 1.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.83× 58.59
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.30× 58.59
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 9.18× 58.59
4-0 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.02× 58.59
4-1 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.59
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 4.59× 58.59
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.30× 58.59
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 9.18× 58.59
Any other score 1.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas leading at HT (DNB) 60.2% 66.0% 1.52
Manta F.C. leading at HT (DNB) 39.8% 34.0% 2.94
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas or draw (X2) 74.6% 72.1% 55.8% 1.29× 1.39
Manta F.C. or Aucas (12) 73.2% 72.1% 73.6% 0.98× 1.39
Manta F.C. or draw (1X) 52.2% 52.5% 70.4% 0.75× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas or draw at HT 79.3% 80.1% 1.25
Manta F.C. or draw at HT 68.7% 66.1% 1.51
Manta F.C. or Aucas at HT 52.0% 47.5% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas or draw (1UP) 74.6% 80.1% 1.25
Manta F.C. or draw (1UP) 52.2% 58.7% 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas or draw in 2nd half 78.4% 77.1% 1.30
Manta F.C. or Aucas in 2nd half 61.6% 63.9% 1.57
Manta F.C. or draw in 2nd half 60.1% 63.8% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.4% 70.0% 1.43
Neither half drawn 31.6% 30.0% 3.33
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (DNB) 65.3% 67.1% 40.1% 1.68× 1.49
Manta F.C. (DNB) 34.7% 32.9% 60.0% 0.55× 3.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas to score first 54.1% 54.3% 1.84
Manta F.C. to score first 36.0% 32.4% 3.08
No goal scored 9.9% 7.5% 13.37
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 56.2% 54.8% 51.1% 1.07× 1.83
Both teams to score 43.8% 45.3% 48.9% 0.93× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 48.2% 44.2% 42.6% 1.04× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 31.5% 34.4% 34.8% 0.99× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 12.3% 12.3% 14.3% 0.86× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.0% 8.4% 8.7% 0.96× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.0% 89.1% 90.0% 0.99× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 9.0% 10.9% 10.0% 1.09× 9.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.7% 75.1% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.3% 24.9% 4.02
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.3% 62.7% 1.60
Both score 2nd half only 19.3% 15.7% 6.35
Both score 1st half only 10.4% 10.4% 9.57
Both score in both halves 3.0% 4.9% 20.32
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.6% 85.4% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 13.5% 14.6% 6.85
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.6% 57.2% 1.75
A goal in each half 44.4% 42.8% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.3% 47.4% 47.0% 1.01× 2.11
0-1 goals 34.3% 30.7% 30.5% 1.01× 3.26
4-6 goals 18.5% 20.2% 21.4% 0.95× 4.94
7+ goals 0.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.22× 55.35
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas to score exactly 1 34.9% 33.9% 40.7% 0.83× 2.95
Aucas to score exactly 0 25.7% 27.4% 33.3% 0.82× 3.65
Aucas to score exactly 2 23.7% 22.4% 16.2% 1.38× 4.47
Aucas to score 3+ 15.7% 19.5% 10.2% 1.91× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.6% 35.1% 1.01× 2.81
Manta F.C. to score exactly 0 40.5% 35.0% 25.8% 1.35× 2.86
Manta F.C. to score exactly 2 16.6% 18.9% 24.5% 0.77× 5.30
Manta F.C. to score 3+ 6.4% 10.3% 14.9% 0.69× 9.71
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 48.0% 52.5% 1.90
Aucas leading at HT 31.3% 33.9% 2.95
Manta F.C. leading at HT 20.7% 19.9% 5.03
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas -1: 1 52.2% 52.1% 1.92
Aucas -1: X 25.2% 26.5% 3.77
Aucas -1: 2 22.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (0:1) 74.6% 71.1% 55.8% 1.28× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 16.9% 17.8% 24.9% 0.71× 5.62
Manta F.C. (0:1) 8.5% 9.3% 19.5% 0.47× 10.81
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (0:2) 91.5% 90.8% 80.5% 1.13× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 6.3% 7.7% 11.9% 0.65× 12.99
Manta F.C. (0:2) 2.2% 3.8% 7.8% 0.48× 26.57
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (0:3) 97.8% 96.6% 92.2% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.7% 2.4% 4.6% 0.51× 42.06
Manta F.C. (0:3) 0.4% 2.4% 3.3% 0.71× 42.12
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (0:4) 99.6% 98.1% 96.7% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 2.2% 0.54× 83.43
Manta F.C. (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.92× 83.47
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. (1:0) 52.2% 54.0% 70.4% 0.77× 1.85
Draw (1:0) 25.2% 25.0% 18.2% 1.38× 3.99
Aucas (1:0) 22.6% 21.7% 11.5% 1.88× 4.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. (2:0) 77.4% 80.4% 88.5% 0.91× 1.25
Draw (2:0) 14.2% 10.4% 7.4% 1.40× 9.60
Aucas (2:0) 8.4% 6.5% 4.3% 1.51× 15.48
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.3% 48.2% 2.08
Halves equal 27.2% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.5% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. to concede 74.3% 73.1% 66.7% 1.10× 1.37
Manta F.C. clean sheet 25.7% 26.9% 33.3% 0.81× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. clean sheet in 1st half 58.0% 63.0% 1.59
Manta F.C. to concede in 1st half 42.0% 37.0% 2.70
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. under 6.5 corners 84.0% 81.3% 1.23
Manta F.C. over 2.5 corners 74.4% 71.5% 1.40
Manta F.C. under 5.5 corners 73.7% 71.5% 1.40
Manta F.C. under 4.5 corners 59.8% 57.4% 1.74
Manta F.C. over 3.5 corners 57.1% 57.4% 1.74
Manta F.C. under 3.5 corners 42.9% 42.6% 2.35
Manta F.C. over 4.5 corners 40.2% 42.6% 2.35
Manta F.C. over 5.5 corners 26.3% 28.5% 3.51
Manta F.C. under 2.5 corners 25.6% 28.5% 3.51
Manta F.C. over 6.5 corners 16.0% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. under 3.5 goals 98.6% 96.4% 94.6% 1.02× 1.04
Manta F.C. under 2.5 goals 93.6% 92.2% 85.1% 1.08× 1.08
Manta F.C. under 1.5 goals 77.1% 77.7% 60.8% 1.28× 1.29
Manta F.C. over 0.5 goals 59.5% 58.8% 74.2% 0.79× 1.70
Manta F.C. under 0.5 goals 40.5% 41.2% 25.8% 1.59× 2.43
Manta F.C. over 1.5 goals 22.9% 22.3% 39.2% 0.57× 4.48
Manta F.C. over 2.5 goals 6.4% 7.8% 14.9% 0.52× 12.90
Manta F.C. over 3.5 goals 1.4% 3.6% 5.4% 0.67× 27.50
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. under 1.5 in 1st half 94.1% 95.6% 1.05
Manta F.C. under 0.5 in 1st half 67.8% 68.8% 1.45
Manta F.C. over 0.5 in 1st half 32.2% 31.2% 3.21
Manta F.C. over 1.5 in 1st half 5.9% 4.4% 22.96
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas (home no bet) 64.1% 60.2% 52.8% 1.14× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 35.9% 39.8% 47.2% 0.84× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. even goals 58.2% 55.5% 54.3% 1.02× 1.80
Manta F.C. odd goals 41.8% 44.5% 45.7% 0.97× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 39.3% 38.8% 2.58
HT 0-1 21.5% 24.2% 4.13
HT 1-0 15.4% 18.8% 5.31
HT 1-1 8.3% 7.1% 14.09
HT 0-2 5.8% 7.1% 14.13
HT 2-0 3.0% 2.2% 44.70
Any other HT score 2.5% 2.2% 44.74
HT 1-2 2.3% 2.2% 44.76
HT 2-1 1.6% 2.2% 44.81
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.2% 44.91
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas at HT / Aucas at FT 26.0% 26.6% 3.77
Draw at HT / Aucas at FT 19.4% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.0% 16.8% 5.95
Manta F.C. at HT / Manta F.C. at FT 13.6% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Manta F.C. at FT 10.6% 12.6% 7.91
Manta F.C. at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.09
Aucas at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.4% 29.12
Manta F.C. at HT / Aucas at FT 2.4% 3.4% 29.19
Aucas at HT / Manta F.C. at FT 1.2% 3.4% 29.24
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas to score last 54.0% 52.0% 1.93
Manta F.C. to score last 36.0% 38.2% 2.62
No goal scored 9.9% 7.5% 13.37
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.1% 92.6% 1.08
Aucas to lead by 1 at any time 60.3% 61.4% 1.63
Manta F.C. to lead by 1 at any time 40.2% 39.0% 2.57
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 39.6% 34.8% 2.87
Aucas to lead by 2 at any time 27.5% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.8% 10.5% 9.56
Manta F.C. to lead by 2 at any time 12.2% 10.5% 9.57
Aucas to lead by 3 at any time 9.9% 6.6% 15.20
Manta F.C. to lead by 3 at any time 2.9% 1.6% 62.94
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. most corners 46.1% 46.8% 2.14
Aucas most corners 41.2% 43.2% 2.32
Corners level 12.6% 10.7% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.2% 87.4% 89.0% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 82.1% 83.5% 81.8% 1.02× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.7% 72.4% 69.5% 1.04× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.8% 63.5% 68.2% 0.93× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.8% 63.5% 66.5% 0.95× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.7% 59.2% 59.3% 1.00× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.6% 53.1% 48.9% 1.09× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.3% 48.7% 47.0% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 38.6% 39.2% 42.0% 0.93× 2.55
3-5 goals 36.7% 39.2% 40.3% 0.97× 2.55
3-4 goals 31.5% 35.4% 33.1% 1.07× 2.83
4-6 goals 18.5% 18.6% 21.4% 0.87× 5.37
4-5 goals 16.5% 18.6% 19.7% 0.94× 5.38
5-6 goals 7.1% 8.7% 9.1% 0.96× 11.45
7+ goals 0.9% 2.5% 1.5% 1.70× 39.54
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aucas never behind 49.9% 57.3% 1.75
Manta F.C. never behind 29.8% 30.1% 3.32
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.8% 48.5% 1.05× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.2% 51.5% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.6% 57.9% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.4% 42.1% 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.2% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.8% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.2% 95.5% 96.8% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 89.6% 1.03× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 80.6% 82.4% 77.3% 1.07× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 65.7% 66.3% 69.5% 0.95× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 60.5% 61.7% 56.7% 1.09× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 39.5% 38.3% 43.3% 0.88× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 34.3% 33.7% 30.5% 1.11× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 19.4% 17.7% 22.7% 0.78× 5.67
Under 0.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 8.0% 0.97× 12.94
Over 4.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 10.4% 0.74× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 2.8% 4.5% 3.2% 1.43× 22.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.1% 97.3% 98.5% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.0% 97.3% 96.6% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.0% 92.5% 88.1% 1.05× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 75.8% 75.9% 71.4% 1.06× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 53.5% 51.8% 58.7% 0.88× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.5% 48.2% 41.3% 1.17× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 24.2% 24.1% 28.6% 0.84× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.0% 7.5% 11.9% 0.64× 13.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.0% 2.8% 3.4% 0.81× 36.36
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.9% 2.7% 1.5% 1.82× 36.42
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.2% 92.9% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.1% 78.6% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 60.7% 63.6% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 39.3% 36.4% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 23.9% 21.4% 4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.8% 7.1% 14.10
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 85.0% 83.0% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 78.0% 1.28
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 61.7% 61.8% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 38.3% 38.2% 2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 22.0% 4.54
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.0% 17.0% 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. not to score in both halves 87.0% 85.9% 1.17
Aucas not to score in both halves 76.6% 78.4% 1.28
Aucas to score in both halves 23.4% 21.6% 4.62
Manta F.C. to score in both halves 13.0% 14.1% 7.08
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 43.8% 46.6% 48.9% 0.95× 2.15
Only Aucas scores 30.5% 33.3% 18.0% 1.85× 3.00
Only Manta F.C. scores 15.7% 16.1% 25.5% 0.63× 6.21
Neither team scores 9.9% 7.2% 8.0% 0.90× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.2% 25.0% 26.4% 0.95× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 24.4% 22.7% 22.7% 1.00× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 20.1% 22.6% 20.8% 1.09× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 11.4% 12.1% 12.5% 0.97× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 9.9% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 5.2% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.14
6 or more goals 2.8% 4.4% 3.2% 1.40× 22.63
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 38.3% 40.0% 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 35.5% 39.7% 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 26.2% 29.5% 3.38
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. not to win both halves 95.6% 97.1% 1.03
Aucas not to win both halves 87.6% 88.1% 1.14
Aucas to win both halves 12.4% 11.9% 8.38
Manta F.C. to win both halves 4.4% 2.9% 34.88
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. to win neither half 62.1% 65.3% 1.53
Aucas to win either half 58.8% 59.5% 1.68
Aucas to win neither half 41.2% 40.5% 2.47
Manta F.C. to win either half 37.9% 34.7% 2.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Manta F.C. not to win to nil 84.3% 83.0% 74.5% 1.11× 1.21
Aucas not to win to nil 69.5% 69.7% 82.0% 0.85× 1.44
Aucas to win to nil 30.5% 30.3% 18.0% 1.68× 3.30
Manta F.C. to win to nil 15.7% 17.0% 25.5% 0.67× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.8% 27.8% 26.4% 1.05× 3.59
Aucas by 1 25.2% 27.8% 18.2% 1.53× 3.59
Manta F.C. by 1 16.9% 16.9% 24.9% 0.68× 5.90
Aucas by 2 14.2% 11.8% 7.4% 1.59× 8.46
Aucas by 3+ 8.4% 7.2% 4.3% 1.70× 13.80
Manta F.C. by 2 6.3% 7.2% 11.9% 0.61× 13.81
Manta F.C. by 3+ 2.2% 2.7% 7.8% 0.35× 37.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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