Monaco v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.26
Goals − xG
+0.06 – +1.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
60.7%
Draw
23.1%
Auxerre win
16.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–0.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.04 | 1-1 10% | 58% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 1.94 xGAuxerre 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 10' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Faivre |
| 12' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aladji Bamba |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 20' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Elisha Owusu |
| 22' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 32' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 34' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aladji Bamba |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elisha Owusu |
| 46' |
Auxerre |
Bryan Okoh | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Faivre |
| 46' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Faivre |
| 46' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Mawissa Elebi |
| 50' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 50' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Denis Zakaria |
| 51' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 55' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 58' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 62' |
Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 64' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 67' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Monaco |
Krépin Diatta | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 81' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Krépin Diatta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.05 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Denis Zakaria DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| Anssumane Fati AMC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Jordan Teze MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleksandr Golovin Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.66 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Romain Faivre AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Kévin Danois DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Elisha Owusu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marvin Senaya DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Danny Namaso AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Fredrik Oppegård AML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lamine Sy Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Naouirou Ahamada Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Théo De Percin Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |