Monaco v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 20
On target
6 – 11
Shots in box
14 – 15
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
2.21 – 0.58
Goals − xG
-1.84 – +0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monaco win
56.8%
Draw
20.2%
Lens win
22.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLWDDWLWWL last 10
scored 23
from 27.4 xG
conceded 16
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–1.47 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monaco 2.84 xGLens 3.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monaco attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 8' |
 Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jonathan Gradit |
| 9' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 12' |
Lens |
Jonathan Gradit | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 18' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 19' |
Monaco |
Kassoum Ouattara | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 20' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 20' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 36' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 38' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Odsonne Edouard |
| 41' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 42' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 42' |
Lens |
Samson Baidoo | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 43' |
Monaco |
Mohammed Salisu | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 43' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 47' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Florian Thauvin |
| 50' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Gradit |
| 53' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 56' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 59' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Goal | Florian Thauvin |
| 61' |
Monaco |
George Ilenikhena | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Monaco |
George Ilenikhena | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 69' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Lucas Michal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 80' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 81' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 87' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Monaco |
George Ilenikhena | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 90' |
Monaco |
Mohammed Salisu | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 92' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 92' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.56 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Salisu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Kassoum Ouattara ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Caio Henrique DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Maghnes Akliouche MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Jordan Teze MR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Aleksandr Golovin MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 44 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Lucas Michal Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Pape Cabral Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.32 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Denis Zakaria Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.11 | 1.05 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 0.86 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.18 | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.41 |
| Samson Baidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 78 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 78 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.27 | 0.95 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.95 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Morgan Guilavogui Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Bermont Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |