Montevideo Wanderers v CD Nacional — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · URU-Primera Division · 2627

URU-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Montevideo Wanderers

15:30

CD Nacional

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 156h before kick-off

Montevideo Wanderers win

36.7%

model 37.6%

Draw

26.6%

model 25.3%

CD Nacional win

36.7%

model 37.1%

372737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
1-0 9.7%
0-1 9.6%
2-1 8.3%
1-2 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.7%	Under 2.5	50.3%
BTTS yes	53.7%	BTTS no	46.3%
Montevideo Wanderers 1+	73.7%	Montevideo Wanderers 2+	38.6%
CD Nacional 1+	73.4%	CD Nacional 2+	38.2%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.32. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

19/100

Data quality

40/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 66%

73.5% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 2591 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Montevideo Wanderers (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Montevideo Wanderers.

Risk factors

Data quality is 40/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0036 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Montevideo Wanderers have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.7% for CD Nacional and 26.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.34 for Montevideo Wanderers and 1.32 for CD Nacional.

Why Montevideo Wanderers

Nothing in the data singles out Montevideo Wanderers.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.34 to 1.32. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why CD Nacional can win

CD Nacional carry the stronger rating, 1600 Elo against 1544. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Montevideo Wanderers, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for CD Nacional, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Montevideo Wanderers: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. CD Nacional: 41% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Montevideo Wanderers are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 19/100, data quality 40/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	382537	1.34–1.32	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	352539	1.28–1.36	1-1 12%	49%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional to win	39.1%	36.5%	32.0%	1.14×	2.74
Montevideo Wanderers to win	35.4%	36.4%	40.6%	0.90×	2.75
Draw	25.4%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional & not both score	21.0%	21.9%	18.2%	1.20×	4.57
Montevideo Wanderers & not both score	18.9%	17.9%	22.7%	0.79×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	17.9%	17.6%	1.02×	5.58
CD Nacional & both teams score	18.1%	17.9%	13.9%	1.29×	5.58
Montevideo Wanderers & both teams score	16.5%	17.9%	18.0%	0.99×	5.58
Draw & not both score	6.8%	8.4%	10.2%	0.82×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional & over 1.5	29.0%	26.0%	19.8%	1.31×	3.84
CD Nacional & under 3.5	28.1%	26.0%	25.7%	1.01×	3.84
Montevideo Wanderers & over 1.5	25.9%	26.0%	29.4%	0.88×	3.84
Montevideo Wanderers & under 3.5	25.8%	26.0%	31.4%	0.83×	3.84
CD Nacional & over 2.5	22.4%	21.6%	15.7%	1.38×	4.62
Montevideo Wanderers & over 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	22.5%	0.96×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.9%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
CD Nacional & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Montevideo Wanderers & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	18.2%	0.99×	5.56
CD Nacional & over 3.5	11.0%	12.9%	6.5%	1.99×	7.78
CD Nacional & under 1.5	10.1%	12.9%	12.4%	1.04×	7.78
Montevideo Wanderers & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	11.4%	0.69×	12.69
Montevideo Wanderers & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	9.4%	0.84×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.69

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (1UP)	55.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Montevideo Wanderers (1UP)	52.0%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (2UP)	39.1%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
Montevideo Wanderers (2UP)	35.4%	36.9%	—	—	2.71

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	35.8%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
CD Nacional to win 2nd half	34.6%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Montevideo Wanderers to win 2nd half	29.6%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (+2.5)	94.8%	92.1%	92.5%	1.00×	1.09
CD Nacional (+1.5)	84.7%	82.4%	82.2%	1.00×	1.21
CD Nacional (+0.5)	64.6%	62.9%	59.4%	1.06×	1.59
Montevideo Wanderers (+0.5)	60.9%	62.9%	68.0%	0.92×	1.59
CD Nacional (-0.5)	39.1%	37.1%	32.0%	1.16×	2.69
Montevideo Wanderers (-0.5)	35.4%	37.1%	40.6%	0.91×	2.70
Montevideo Wanderers (-1.5)	15.3%	17.6%	17.8%	0.99×	5.69
Montevideo Wanderers (-2.5)	5.2%	7.9%	7.5%	1.06×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional to concede	72.2%	76.5%	71.8%	1.07×	1.31
CD Nacional clean sheet	27.8%	23.5%	28.2%	0.83×	4.26

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional clean sheet in 1st half	57.7%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
CD Nacional to concede in 1st half	42.3%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional under 3.5 goals	95.1%	97.6%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
CD Nacional under 2.5 goals	84.4%	81.5%	92.4%	0.88×	1.23
CD Nacional over 0.5 goals	74.3%	71.9%	67.3%	1.07×	1.39
CD Nacional under 1.5 goals	60.6%	62.9%	72.5%	0.87×	1.59
CD Nacional over 1.5 goals	39.4%	37.1%	27.5%	1.35×	2.70
CD Nacional under 0.5 goals	25.7%	28.1%	32.7%	0.86×	3.56
CD Nacional over 2.5 goals	15.6%	18.5%	7.6%	2.42×	5.40
CD Nacional over 3.5 goals	4.9%	2.4%	2.7%	0.89×	40.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional under 1.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
CD Nacional under 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
CD Nacional over 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
CD Nacional over 1.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.3%	—	—	9.68

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (away no bet)	58.2%	57.5%	59.5%	0.97×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.8%	42.5%	40.5%	1.05×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional even goals	53.3%	52.7%	54.5%	0.97×	1.90
CD Nacional odd goals	46.7%	47.3%	45.5%	1.04×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.4%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.7%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.3%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.7%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
CD Nacional to score 2+ in a row	31.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Montevideo Wanderers to score 2+ in a row	28.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.4%	—	—	6.09
CD Nacional to score 3+ in a row	9.8%	5.6%	—	—	17.73
Montevideo Wanderers to score 3+ in a row	8.4%	5.6%	—	—	17.85

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	12.7%	0.90×	8.73
0-1	10.1%	11.4%	12.4%	0.93×	8.74
1-0	9.5%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.46
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.46
0-0	6.8%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.46
0-2	6.6%	7.4%	4.3%	1.72×	13.46
2-1	8.0%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.46
2-0	5.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.46
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	4.5%	1.65×	13.46
0-3	3.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.58
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.45×	58.59
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.57
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.35×	58.59
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.58
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.74×	58.59
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.58
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.54×	58.57
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	2.2%	0.79×	58.58
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.59
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	8.70×	58.59
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.45×	58.59
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.59
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.59
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	8.70×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.70×	58.59
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers leading at HT (DNB)	50.4%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
CD Nacional leading at HT (DNB)	49.6%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers or CD Nacional (12)	74.6%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
CD Nacional or draw (X2)	64.6%	63.6%	59.4%	1.07×	1.57
Montevideo Wanderers or draw (1X)	60.9%	63.5%	68.0%	0.93×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers or draw at HT	72.3%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
CD Nacional or draw at HT	71.9%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Montevideo Wanderers or CD Nacional at HT	55.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional or draw (1UP)	64.6%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Montevideo Wanderers or draw (1UP)	60.9%	71.2%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional or draw in 2nd half	70.4%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Montevideo Wanderers or draw in 2nd half	65.4%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Montevideo Wanderers or CD Nacional in 2nd half	64.2%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.6%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (DNB)	52.5%	50.9%	44.1%	1.16×	1.96
Montevideo Wanderers (DNB)	47.5%	49.1%	55.9%	0.88×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional to score first	48.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Montevideo Wanderers to score first	45.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.57

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.2%	51.5%	49.2%	1.05×	1.94
Not both teams to score	46.8%	48.5%	50.8%	0.96×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.2%	41.5%	36.7%	1.13×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	38.8%	38.5%	44.5%	0.87×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.3%	12.7%	0.97×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.4%	6.5%	1.29×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.6%	85.7%	89.6%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.4%	14.3%	10.4%	1.38×	6.97

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.3%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.7%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Both score 1st half only	12.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.05

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	47.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.4%	46.1%	1.03×	2.11
0-1 goals	26.4%	26.4%	33.5%	0.79×	3.79
4-6 goals	25.4%	26.4%	19.8%	1.33×	3.79
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.85×	55.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional to score exactly 1	34.9%	33.9%	40.0%	0.85×	2.95
CD Nacional to score exactly 0	25.7%	27.4%	32.7%	0.84×	3.65
CD Nacional to score exactly 2	23.7%	22.4%	20.0%	1.12×	4.47
CD Nacional to score 3+	15.6%	19.5%	7.6%	2.55×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.6%	35.1%	1.01×	2.81
Montevideo Wanderers to score exactly 0	27.8%	26.5%	28.2%	0.94×	3.77
Montevideo Wanderers to score exactly 2	22.8%	23.3%	23.5%	0.99×	4.30
Montevideo Wanderers to score 3+	13.8%	14.4%	13.5%	1.06×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.2%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Montevideo Wanderers leading at HT	28.1%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
CD Nacional leading at HT	27.7%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional -1: 1	60.9%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
CD Nacional -1: X	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
CD Nacional -1: 2	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (0:1)	64.6%	61.4%	59.4%	1.03×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.1%	24.3%	22.9%	1.06×	4.12
Montevideo Wanderers (0:1)	15.3%	17.8%	17.8%	1.00×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (0:2)	84.7%	82.8%	82.2%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.1%	11.0%	10.6%	1.04×	9.10
Montevideo Wanderers (0:2)	5.2%	7.7%	7.5%	1.03×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (0:3)	94.8%	92.7%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.8%	2.4%	5.5%	0.43×	41.97
Montevideo Wanderers (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	2.2%	1.10×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (0:4)	98.5%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.34
Montevideo Wanderers (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.6%	2.04×	83.44

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (1:0)	60.9%	65.1%	68.0%	0.96×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	21.4%	21.7%	22.5%	0.96×	4.61
CD Nacional (1:0)	17.8%	17.0%	9.6%	1.77×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers (2:0)	82.2%	84.5%	90.4%	0.94×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.4%	10.4%	7.3%	1.43×	9.63
CD Nacional (2:0)	6.4%	6.5%	2.5%	2.53×	15.50

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.0%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers to concede	74.3%	73.1%	67.3%	1.09×	1.37
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet	25.7%	26.9%	32.7%	0.82×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half	58.1%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Montevideo Wanderers to concede in 1st half	41.9%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers under 3.5 goals	95.9%	96.3%	95.5%	1.01×	1.04
Montevideo Wanderers under 2.5 goals	86.2%	87.2%	86.5%	1.01×	1.15
Montevideo Wanderers over 0.5 goals	72.2%	74.2%	71.8%	1.03×	1.35
Montevideo Wanderers under 1.5 goals	63.4%	63.4%	63.1%	1.00×	1.58
Montevideo Wanderers over 1.5 goals	36.6%	36.6%	36.9%	0.99×	2.73
Montevideo Wanderers under 0.5 goals	27.8%	25.8%	28.2%	0.91×	3.88
Montevideo Wanderers over 2.5 goals	13.8%	12.8%	13.5%	0.94×	7.83
Montevideo Wanderers over 3.5 goals	4.1%	3.7%	4.5%	0.81×	27.38

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half	89.4%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Montevideo Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half	57.7%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Montevideo Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half	42.3%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Montevideo Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half	10.6%	10.0%	—	—	10.05

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional (home no bet)	60.6%	60.1%	53.6%	1.12×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	39.4%	39.9%	46.4%	0.86×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers even goals	53.9%	50.7%	55.1%	0.92×	1.97
Montevideo Wanderers odd goals	46.1%	49.3%	44.9%	1.10×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.07
HT 1-0	18.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.29
HT 0-1	18.3%	18.9%	—	—	5.29
HT 1-1	10.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 2-0	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.14
HT 0-2	4.9%	2.2%	—	—	44.55
Any other HT score	3.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.65
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.2%	—	—	44.72
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.2%	—	—	44.72
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.2%	—	—	44.88

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional at HT / CD Nacional at FT	21.1%	22.1%	—	—	4.53
Montevideo Wanderers at HT / Montevideo Wanderers at FT	20.2%	22.1%	—	—	4.53
Draw at HT / CD Nacional at FT	15.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Montevideo Wanderers at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Montevideo Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
CD Nacional at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.10
Montevideo Wanderers at HT / CD Nacional at FT	2.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.18
CD Nacional at HT / Montevideo Wanderers at FT	2.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.21

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional to score last	48.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Montevideo Wanderers to score last	45.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.57

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
CD Nacional to lead by 1 at any time	55.2%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Montevideo Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time	52.0%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.5%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
CD Nacional to lead by 2 at any time	23.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Montevideo Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time	21.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
CD Nacional to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	6.5%	—	—	15.29
Montevideo Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.5%	—	—	15.36

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	87.4%	86.3%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.4%	83.5%	80.8%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.8%	72.4%	65.7%	1.10×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.4%	69.0%	62.9%	1.10×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.0%	69.0%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.5%	57.5%	1.10×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.2%	48.7%	42.2%	1.15×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.1%	43.6%	47.1%	0.93×	2.29
3-5 goals	43.9%	43.6%	39.4%	1.11×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.3%	39.2%	33.9%	1.15×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.4%	30.2%	19.8%	1.52×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.0%	24.4%	17.1%	1.43×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.9%	14.8%	8.4%	1.76×	6.74
7+ goals	1.8%	2.5%	1.0%	2.58×	39.50

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional never behind	41.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Montevideo Wanderers never behind	38.0%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.8%	47.8%	1.06×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.2%	52.2%	0.94×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	96.3%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.2%	87.7%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.6%	72.5%	66.5%	1.09×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.8%	72.5%	79.4%	0.91×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	52.4%	57.1%	0.92×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	47.6%	42.9%	1.11×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	27.2%	27.5%	20.6%	1.33×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	26.4%	27.5%	33.5%	0.82×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	12.8%	12.3%	9.2%	1.34×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	10.2%	0.76×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	3.7%	2.07×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.4%	92.5%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.1%	86.7%	89.6%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.2%	67.3%	73.5%	0.92×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.0%	67.3%	56.2%	1.20×	1.49
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.0%	32.7%	43.8%	0.75×	3.06
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.8%	32.7%	26.5%	1.23×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.9%	13.3%	10.4%	1.28×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.6%	7.5%	3.9%	1.91×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.7%	1.0%	2.73×	36.39

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.2%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.2%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.5%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.5%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.8%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.8%	7.3%	—	—	13.67

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	20.0%	—	—	4.99
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers not to score in both halves	78.1%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
CD Nacional not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
CD Nacional to score in both halves	23.4%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Montevideo Wanderers to score in both halves	21.9%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.2%	54.0%	49.2%	1.10×	1.85
Only CD Nacional scores	21.0%	22.4%	18.2%	1.23×	4.47
Only Montevideo Wanderers scores	18.9%	16.1%	22.7%	0.71×	6.20
Neither team scores	6.8%	7.2%	10.2%	0.70×	13.95

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.5%	22.7%	23.7%	0.95×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	22.5%	1.00×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	19.6%	17.5%	23.5%	0.74×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.4%	12.1%	11.6%	1.04×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	7.6%	7.6%	5.7%	1.34×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.6%	10.2%	0.75×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	3.7%	2.04×	13.14

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.5%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.2%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers not to win both halves	91.7%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
CD Nacional not to win both halves	90.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
CD Nacional to win both halves	9.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.42
Montevideo Wanderers to win both halves	8.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.51

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CD Nacional to win either half	52.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Montevideo Wanderers to win neither half	50.5%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Montevideo Wanderers to win either half	49.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
CD Nacional to win neither half	47.2%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Montevideo Wanderers not to win to nil	81.1%	83.0%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
CD Nacional not to win to nil	79.0%	78.0%	81.8%	0.95×	1.28
CD Nacional to win to nil	21.0%	22.0%	18.2%	1.20×	4.55
Montevideo Wanderers to win to nil	18.9%	17.0%	22.7%	0.75×	5.87

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.4%	27.8%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
CD Nacional by 1	21.4%	24.1%	22.5%	1.07×	4.14
Montevideo Wanderers by 1	20.1%	24.1%	22.9%	1.05×	4.14
CD Nacional by 2	11.4%	11.8%	7.3%	1.63×	8.47
Montevideo Wanderers by 2	10.1%	11.8%	10.6%	1.12×	8.47
CD Nacional by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	2.5%	2.84×	13.81
Montevideo Wanderers by 3+	5.2%	7.2%	7.5%	0.97×	13.81