Monza v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 10
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.10 – +1.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Monza win
21.1%
Draw
25.9%
Udinese win
53.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Monza are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLWLLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.3 xG
conceded 24
from 17.7 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.83–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.26–1.30 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Monza 1.90 xGUdinese 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Monza attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Monza |
Manga Foe Ondoa | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ricardo Mangas |
| 7' |
Monza |
Manga Foe Ondoa | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Cutrone |
| 8' |
 Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Ebosse |
| 11' |
Monza |
Andrea Colpani | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Cutrone |
| 19' |
Monza |
Gustavo Varela | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manga Foe Ondoa |
| 26' |
Monza |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eddy Kouadio |
| 27' |
Monza |
Andrea Carboni | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ricardo Mangas |
| 28' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 31' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hassane Kamara |
| 31' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 36' |
Monza |
Andrea Colpani | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ricardo Mangas |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Unai Gómez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Unai Gómez |
| 47' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Udinese |
Unai Gómez | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 53' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 57' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jakub Piotrowski |
| 59' |
Monza |
Gustavo Varela | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Colpani |
| 62' |
Monza |
Gustavo Varela | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 67' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 70' |
Monza |
Andrea Carboni | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Andrea Colpani |
| 86' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Forson |
| 92' |
Monza |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dany Mota |
| 92' |
Monza |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ricardo Mangas |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cutrone AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.19 | 1.14 |
| Gustavo Varela FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Andrea Carboni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Demba Thiam GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ricardo Mangas DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1.37 |
| Eddy Kouadio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.96 |
| Andrea Colpani AMC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
| Samuele Birindelli DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Lorenzo Lucchesi DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Manga Foe Ondoa MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Mathis Mout MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Michael Folorunsho Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Sub | 34 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Filippo Delli Carri Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Dany Mota Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Omari Forson Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| James Abankwah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 62 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| Unai Gómez AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Arizala Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |