Motherwell v Aberdeen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 15 September 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627
SCO-Premiership
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 11.7%
- 2-0 11.2%
- 1-1 10.4%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 3-0 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | Under 2.5 | 47.4% |
| BTTS yes | 49.9% | BTTS no | 50.1% |
| Motherwell 1+ | 85.0% | Motherwell 2+ | 56.6% |
| Aberdeen 1+ | 58.6% | Aberdeen 2+ | 22.1% |
Expected goals 1.90 – 0.88. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Motherwell carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1399.
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Motherwell have an estimated 61.1% win probability, against 20.5% for the draw and 18.4% for Aberdeen. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.90 for Motherwell and 0.88 for Aberdeen.
Why Motherwell
Motherwell carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 20.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.
Why Aberdeen can win
Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Motherwell, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Aberdeen, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Motherwell: 57% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Aberdeen: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Motherwell's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Motherwell are the model's most likely outcome at 61.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.90–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.74–0.83 | 1-0 13% | 47% | 46% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to win | 59.0% | 54.1% | 45.9% | 1.18× | 1.85 |
| Draw | 23.5% | 24.4% | 23.4% | 1.04× | 4.09 |
| Aberdeen to win | 17.5% | 19.3% | 30.9% | 0.63× | 5.17 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell & not both score | 36.0% | 33.2% | 27.4% | 1.21× | 3.02 |
| Motherwell & both teams score | 22.9% | 21.9% | 18.7% | 1.17× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 15.8% | 17.9% | 17.8% | 1.00× | 5.58 |
| Aberdeen & not both score | 9.8% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 0.57× | 11.94 |
| Draw & not both score | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 1.44× | 11.94 |
| Aberdeen & both teams score | 7.7% | 8.4% | 16.4% | 0.51× | 11.95 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell & over 1.5 | 45.6% | 45.2% | 36.7% | 1.23× | 2.21 |
| Motherwell & under 3.5 | 41.3% | 40.3% | 30.1% | 1.34× | 2.48 |
| Motherwell & over 2.5 | 34.0% | 30.9% | 28.2% | 1.09× | 3.24 |
| Motherwell & under 2.5 | 25.0% | 21.6% | 17.8% | 1.21× | 4.62 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 18.9% | 18.0% | 14.9% | 1.20× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 18.9% | 18.0% | 14.9% | 1.20× | 5.56 |
| Motherwell & over 3.5 | 17.7% | 18.0% | 16.0% | 1.13× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 15.8% | 18.0% | 17.8% | 1.01× | 5.56 |
| Aberdeen & under 3.5 | 14.2% | 12.9% | 22.4% | 0.57× | 7.77 |
| Motherwell & under 1.5 | 13.3% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 1.38× | 7.78 |
| Aberdeen & over 1.5 | 11.2% | 12.9% | 24.5% | 0.53× | 7.78 |
| Aberdeen & over 2.5 | 8.6% | 7.9% | 20.5% | 0.38× | 12.69 |
| Aberdeen & under 2.5 | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 0.74× | 12.69 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 1.36× | 12.69 |
| Aberdeen & under 1.5 | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 1.19× | 12.69 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 0.55× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 0.55× | 20.93 |
| Aberdeen & over 3.5 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 0.55× | 20.93 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell (1UP) | 70.3% | 75.4% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Aberdeen (1UP) | 33.4% | 32.9% | — | — | 3.04 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell (2UP) | 59.0% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Aberdeen (2UP) | 17.5% | 17.3% | — | — | 5.79 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to win 2nd half | 46.7% | 45.7% | — | — | 2.19 |
| 2nd half drawn | 35.2% | 36.0% | — | — | 2.78 |
| Aberdeen to win 2nd half | 18.0% | 19.3% | — | — | 5.19 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen (+2.5) | 84.9% | 82.4% | 87.8% | 0.94× | 1.21 |
| Motherwell (+0.5) | 82.5% | 82.4% | 69.1% | 1.19× | 1.21 |
| Aberdeen (+1.5) | 66.6% | 68.7% | 73.4% | 0.94× | 1.46 |
| Motherwell (-0.5) | 59.0% | 57.0% | 45.9% | 1.24× | 1.75 |
| Aberdeen (+0.5) | 41.0% | 43.0% | 54.1% | 0.79× | 2.33 |
| Motherwell (-1.5) | 33.4% | 31.3% | 26.6% | 1.18× | 3.20 |
| Aberdeen (-0.5) | 17.5% | 17.6% | 30.9% | 0.57× | 5.68 |
| Motherwell (-2.5) | 15.1% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 1.44× | 5.69 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen to concede | 82.4% | 81.3% | 79.7% | 1.02× | 1.23 |
| Aberdeen clean sheet | 17.6% | 18.7% | 20.3% | 0.92× | 5.34 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen clean sheet in 1st half | 47.4% | 50.9% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Aberdeen to concede in 1st half | 52.6% | 49.1% | — | — | 2.04 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen under 6.5 corners | 88.8% | 84.9% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Aberdeen under 5.5 corners | 79.9% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Aberdeen over 2.5 corners | 69.6% | 68.3% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Aberdeen under 4.5 corners | 66.7% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Aberdeen over 3.5 corners | 50.6% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Aberdeen under 3.5 corners | 49.4% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Aberdeen over 4.5 corners | 33.3% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Aberdeen under 2.5 corners | 30.4% | 31.7% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Aberdeen over 5.5 corners | 20.1% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
| Aberdeen over 6.5 corners | 11.2% | 15.1% | — | — | 6.63 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen under 3.5 goals | 99.0% | 97.6% | 96.3% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Aberdeen under 2.5 goals | 94.9% | 92.4% | 85.5% | 1.08× | 1.08 |
| Aberdeen under 1.5 goals | 79.9% | 76.2% | 63.1% | 1.21× | 1.31 |
| Aberdeen over 0.5 goals | 56.2% | 59.6% | 67.0% | 0.89× | 1.68 |
| Aberdeen under 0.5 goals | 43.8% | 40.4% | 33.0% | 1.22× | 2.48 |
| Aberdeen over 1.5 goals | 20.1% | 23.8% | 36.9% | 0.64× | 4.21 |
| Aberdeen over 2.5 goals | 5.1% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 0.53× | 13.09 |
| Aberdeen over 3.5 goals | 1.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.65× | 41.15 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen under 1.5 in 1st half | 95.6% | 95.6% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Aberdeen under 0.5 in 1st half | 71.9% | 69.3% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Aberdeen over 0.5 in 1st half | 28.1% | 30.7% | — | — | 3.26 |
| Aberdeen over 1.5 in 1st half | 4.4% | 4.4% | — | — | 22.62 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell (away no bet) | 71.5% | 68.5% | 66.2% | 1.04× | 1.46 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 28.5% | 31.5% | 33.8% | 0.93× | 3.18 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen even goals | 59.6% | 57.0% | 57.7% | 0.99× | 1.76 |
| Aberdeen odd goals | 40.4% | 43.0% | 42.3% | 1.02× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 87.2% | 87.9% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 12.8% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.27 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 60.2% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 39.8% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 55.0% | 55.3% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Motherwell to score 2+ in a row | 45.4% | 45.9% | — | — | 2.18 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 21.5% | 19.3% | — | — | 5.18 |
| Motherwell to score 3+ in a row | 19.1% | 16.5% | — | — | 6.08 |
| Aberdeen to score 2+ in a row | 13.8% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.31 |
| Aberdeen to score 3+ in a row | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.52 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell corners (+3.5) | 92.6% | 88.7% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Motherwell corners (+2.5) | 87.4% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Motherwell corners (+1.5) | 79.9% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Aberdeen corners (+3.5) | 75.5% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Aberdeen corners (+2.5) | 65.3% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Aberdeen corners (+1.5) | 53.6% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Motherwell corners (-1.5) | 46.4% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Motherwell corners (-2.5) | 34.7% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Motherwell corners (-3.5) | 24.5% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Aberdeen corners (-1.5) | 20.1% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Aberdeen corners (-2.5) | 12.6% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
| Aberdeen corners (-3.5) | 7.4% | 11.3% | — | — | 8.82 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 49.2% | 40.7% | — | — | 2.46 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.2% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
| 12+ corners | 20.7% | 26.3% | — | — | 3.81 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 85.9% | 82.8% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.3% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 70.9% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 62.8% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 60.7% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 50.8% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 49.2% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39.3% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 37.2% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 29.1% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 20.7% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.28 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 14.1% | 17.2% | — | — | 5.80 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.3% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 1.23× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 1.31× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 1.23× | 8.73 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.05× | 13.46 |
| 0-0 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 1.28× | 13.46 |
| 3-0 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.33× | 13.46 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 1.12× | 13.46 |
| 3-1 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.33× | 13.46 |
| 0-2 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 0.41× | 58.58 |
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 0.51× | 58.59 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.11× | 58.59 |
| 1-2 | 4.6% | 1.7% | 8.9% | 0.19× | 58.57 |
| 1-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.59 |
| 1-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.06× | 58.59 |
| 2-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 6.6% | 0.26× | 58.57 |
| 2-3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.75× | 58.59 |
| 2-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.06× | 58.59 |
| 3-2 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.58 |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.75× | 58.59 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.11× | 58.59 |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.48× | 58.58 |
| 4-1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.18× | 58.58 |
| 4-2 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.74× | 58.59 |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.06× | 58.59 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.23× | 58.59 |
| Any other score | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 0.41× | 58.57 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell leading at HT (DNB) | 73.8% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Aberdeen leading at HT (DNB) | 26.2% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell or draw (1X) | 82.5% | 80.7% | 69.1% | 1.17× | 1.24 |
| Motherwell or Aberdeen (12) | 76.5% | 75.6% | 76.6% | 0.99× | 1.32 |
| Aberdeen or draw (X2) | 41.0% | 45.9% | 54.1% | 0.85× | 2.18 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell or draw at HT | 85.1% | 88.0% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Aberdeen or draw at HT | 57.9% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Motherwell or Aberdeen at HT | 57.0% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell or draw (1UP) | 82.5% | 88.5% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Aberdeen or draw (1UP) | 41.0% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.90 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell or draw in 2nd half | 82.0% | 80.7% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Motherwell or Aberdeen in 2nd half | 64.8% | 64.0% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Aberdeen or draw in 2nd half | 53.3% | 54.3% | — | — | 1.84 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 63.0% | 61.6% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 37.0% | 38.4% | — | — | 2.60 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell (DNB) | 77.1% | 74.6% | 59.7% | 1.25× | 1.34 |
| Aberdeen (DNB) | 22.9% | 25.4% | 40.3% | 0.63× | 3.94 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to score first | 62.5% | 64.3% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Aberdeen to score first | 29.7% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.50 |
| No goal scored | 7.8% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.51 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 53.6% | 51.5% | 47.5% | 1.08× | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 48.5% | 52.5% | 0.92× | 2.06 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 41.7% | 41.5% | 33.8% | 1.23× | 2.41 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 35.3% | 38.5% | 43.4% | 0.89× | 2.60 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 12.0% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 0.89× | 8.11 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 1.32× | 8.11 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 89.6% | 85.7% | 83.8% | 1.02× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 10.4% | 14.3% | 16.2% | 0.88× | 6.99 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 75.4% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 24.6% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 64.2% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 20.9% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.75 |
| Both score 1st half only | 11.2% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.56 |
| Both score in both halves | 3.6% | 5.0% | — | — | 20.19 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 85.2% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 14.8% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.75 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 51.0% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| A half without a goal | 49.0% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 47.0% | 47.4% | 45.9% | 1.03× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 27.4% | 26.4% | 21.4% | 1.24× | 3.79 |
| 4-6 goals | 24.0% | 22.8% | 31.3% | 0.73× | 4.38 |
| 7+ goals | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.97× | 55.27 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen to score exactly 0 | 43.8% | 37.0% | 33.0% | 1.12× | 2.70 |
| Aberdeen to score exactly 1 | 36.2% | 36.0% | 30.3% | 1.19× | 2.78 |
| Aberdeen to score exactly 2 | 14.9% | 12.8% | 22.6% | 0.57× | 7.79 |
| Aberdeen to score 3+ | 5.1% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 0.58× | 11.82 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to score exactly 1 | 30.6% | 32.6% | 31.1% | 1.05× | 3.07 |
| Motherwell to score exactly 2 | 26.6% | 26.5% | 25.1% | 1.06× | 3.77 |
| Motherwell to score 3+ | 25.3% | 26.5% | 23.9% | 1.11× | 3.77 |
| Motherwell to score exactly 0 | 17.6% | 18.9% | 20.3% | 0.93× | 5.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 43.0% | 43.2% | — | — | 2.31 |
| Motherwell leading at HT | 42.1% | 43.2% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Aberdeen leading at HT | 14.9% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.31 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell -1: 2 | 41.0% | 42.7% | — | — | 2.34 |
| Motherwell -1: 1 | 33.4% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.33 |
| Motherwell -1: X | 25.5% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen (0:1) | 41.0% | 42.7% | 54.1% | 0.79× | 2.34 |
| Motherwell (0:1) | 33.4% | 30.0% | 26.6% | 1.13× | 3.34 |
| Draw (0:1) | 25.5% | 27.0% | 19.5% | 1.38× | 3.70 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen (0:2) | 66.6% | 72.2% | 73.4% | 0.98× | 1.39 |
| Draw (0:2) | 18.3% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 1.06× | 6.53 |
| Motherwell (0:2) | 15.1% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 1.25× | 6.54 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen (0:3) | 84.9% | 85.2% | 87.8% | 0.97× | 1.17 |
| Draw (0:3) | 9.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 0.85× | 17.20 |
| Motherwell (0:3) | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 1.03× | 17.26 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen (0:4) | 94.4% | 94.7% | 94.4% | 1.00× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 3.9% | 1.2% | 4.8% | 0.25× | 83.02 |
| Motherwell (0:4) | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.16× | 83.27 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell (1:0) | 82.5% | 81.5% | 69.1% | 1.18× | 1.23 |
| Draw (1:0) | 12.1% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 0.73× | 7.81 |
| Aberdeen (1:0) | 5.4% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 0.51× | 14.52 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell (2:0) | 94.6% | 94.0% | 86.5% | 1.09× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 4.1% | 2.3% | 7.7% | 0.30× | 44.15 |
| Aberdeen (2:0) | 1.3% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 0.37× | 44.33 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 46.5% | 48.2% | — | — | 2.08 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.4% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Halves equal | 26.0% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to concede | 56.2% | 60.9% | 67.0% | 0.91× | 1.64 |
| Motherwell clean sheet | 43.8% | 39.1% | 33.0% | 1.18× | 2.56 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell clean sheet in 1st half | 71.9% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Motherwell to concede in 1st half | 28.1% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.18 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell over 2.5 corners | 84.1% | 81.3% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Motherwell under 6.5 corners | 73.7% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Motherwell over 3.5 corners | 70.1% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Motherwell under 5.5 corners | 60.9% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Motherwell over 4.5 corners | 54.3% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Motherwell under 4.5 corners | 45.7% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Motherwell over 5.5 corners | 39.1% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Motherwell under 3.5 corners | 29.9% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Motherwell over 6.5 corners | 26.3% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Motherwell under 2.5 corners | 15.9% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.36 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell under 3.5 goals | 90.1% | 92.2% | 92.1% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Motherwell over 0.5 goals | 82.4% | 82.1% | 79.7% | 1.03× | 1.22 |
| Motherwell under 2.5 goals | 74.7% | 74.3% | 76.1% | 0.98× | 1.35 |
| Motherwell over 1.5 goals | 51.8% | 53.3% | 48.8% | 1.09× | 1.88 |
| Motherwell under 1.5 goals | 48.2% | 46.7% | 51.2% | 0.91× | 2.14 |
| Motherwell over 2.5 goals | 25.3% | 25.8% | 23.9% | 1.08× | 3.88 |
| Motherwell under 0.5 goals | 17.6% | 17.9% | 20.3% | 0.88× | 5.60 |
| Motherwell over 3.5 goals | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 0.99× | 12.86 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell under 1.5 in 1st half | 82.8% | 84.7% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Motherwell under 0.5 in 1st half | 47.4% | 51.0% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Motherwell over 0.5 in 1st half | 52.6% | 49.0% | — | — | 2.04 |
| Motherwell over 1.5 in 1st half | 17.2% | 15.3% | — | — | 6.52 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 57.4% | 56.7% | 43.1% | 1.31× | 1.76 |
| Aberdeen (home no bet) | 42.6% | 43.3% | 56.9% | 0.76× | 2.31 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell even goals | 51.6% | 50.6% | 51.7% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| Motherwell odd goals | 48.4% | 49.4% | 48.3% | 1.02× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 34.1% | 32.6% | — | — | 3.07 |
| HT 1-0 | 25.4% | 28.6% | — | — | 3.50 |
| HT 0-1 | 11.2% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.06 |
| HT 2-0 | 9.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.07 |
| HT 1-1 | 8.4% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.09 |
| Any other HT score | 4.5% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.59 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.1% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.69 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.9% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.79 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.4% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.83 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.5% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.90 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell at HT / Motherwell at FT | 36.4% | 41.0% | — | — | 2.44 |
| Draw at HT / Motherwell at FT | 20.1% | 22.1% | — | — | 4.53 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 15.2% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
| Aberdeen at HT / Aberdeen at FT | 8.6% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.54 |
| Draw at HT / Aberdeen at FT | 7.7% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.56 |
| Motherwell at HT / Draw at FT | 4.4% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.11 |
| Aberdeen at HT / Draw at FT | 3.9% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.13 |
| Aberdeen at HT / Motherwell at FT | 2.4% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.19 |
| Motherwell at HT / Aberdeen at FT | 1.2% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.24 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to score last | 62.5% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Aberdeen to score last | 29.7% | 27.6% | — | — | 3.62 |
| No goal scored | 7.8% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.51 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 92.2% | 92.7% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Motherwell to lead by 1 at any time | 70.3% | 73.9% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 47.7% | 44.0% | — | — | 2.27 |
| Motherwell to lead by 2 at any time | 39.0% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Aberdeen to lead by 1 at any time | 33.4% | 29.5% | — | — | 3.39 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 19.2% | 15.0% | — | — | 6.68 |
| Motherwell to lead by 3 at any time | 17.3% | 14.9% | — | — | 6.70 |
| Aberdeen to lead by 2 at any time | 8.8% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.26 |
| Aberdeen to lead by 3 at any time | 1.9% | 1.6% | — | — | 64.06 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell most corners | 58.6% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Aberdeen most corners | 29.9% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Corners level | 11.5% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.39 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.6% | 87.4% | 86.9% | 1.01× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 80.5% | 83.5% | 79.7% | 1.05× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 71.0% | 72.4% | 77.0% | 0.94× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 68.0% | 69.0% | 71.4% | 0.97× | 1.45 |
| 1-3 goals | 66.6% | 69.0% | 61.4% | 1.12× | 1.45 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.9% | 63.5% | 64.1% | 0.99× | 1.58 |
| 2-3 goals | 47.0% | 48.7% | 45.9% | 1.06× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 45.6% | 48.7% | 55.4% | 0.88× | 2.06 |
| 1-2 goals | 45.0% | 48.7% | 37.3% | 1.30× | 2.06 |
| 3-5 goals | 42.6% | 43.6% | 49.8% | 0.88× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 35.5% | 39.2% | 42.5% | 0.92× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 24.0% | 24.5% | 31.3% | 0.78× | 4.09 |
| 4-5 goals | 21.0% | 24.4% | 25.7% | 0.95× | 4.09 |
| 5-6 goals | 10.1% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 1.14× | 6.74 |
| 7+ goals | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.36× | 39.51 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell never behind | 58.8% | 62.8% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Aberdeen never behind | 21.9% | 24.3% | — | — | 4.11 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.6% | 50.8% | 48.5% | 1.05× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 50.4% | 49.2% | 51.5% | 0.96× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.8% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.2% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.6% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.4% | 48.0% | — | — | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 95.4% | 95.5% | 92.5% | 1.03× | 1.05 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92.2% | 92.3% | 94.2% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 88.3% | 87.7% | 85.3% | 1.03× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74.4% | 72.5% | 67.0% | 1.08× | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | 72.5% | 78.6% | 0.92× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 52.4% | 42.9% | 1.22× | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 47.6% | 57.1% | 0.83× | 2.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 27.5% | 21.4% | 1.29× | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 27.5% | 33.0% | 0.83× | 3.64 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11.7% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 0.84× | 8.11 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 1.33× | 12.95 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 0.60× | 22.18 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.4% | 97.3% | 98.0% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 95.0% | 97.2% | 91.9% | 1.06× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 86.4% | 86.7% | 82.0% | 1.06× | 1.15 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 67.3% | 67.3% | 56.6% | 1.19× | 1.49 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 63.3% | 62.1% | 72.8% | 0.85× | 1.61 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 36.7% | 37.9% | 27.2% | 1.39× | 2.64 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 32.7% | 32.7% | 43.4% | 0.75× | 3.06 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 13.6% | 13.3% | 18.0% | 0.74× | 7.53 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 5.0% | 2.8% | 8.1% | 0.34× | 36.30 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.39× | 36.40 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 90.5% | 92.7% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 70.7% | 71.0% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 65.9% | 69.0% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 34.1% | 31.0% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 29.3% | 29.0% | — | — | 3.45 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 9.5% | 7.3% | — | — | 13.71 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 81.2% | 82.9% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 77.3% | 79.9% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 56.2% | 54.8% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 43.8% | 45.2% | — | — | 2.22 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 22.7% | 20.1% | — | — | 4.98 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 18.8% | 17.1% | — | — | 5.84 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen not to score in both halves | 89.0% | 86.0% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Motherwell not to score in both halves | 66.9% | 70.0% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Motherwell to score in both halves | 33.1% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.34 |
| Aberdeen to score in both halves | 11.0% | 14.0% | — | — | 7.15 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 46.4% | 50.3% | 52.5% | 0.96× | 1.99 |
| Only Motherwell scores | 36.0% | 39.8% | 27.4% | 1.45× | 2.51 |
| Only Aberdeen scores | 9.8% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 0.49× | 13.92 |
| Neither team scores | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 1.24× | 13.94 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 25.4% | 25.0% | 21.8% | 1.15× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.6% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 0.93× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 19.6% | 17.5% | 15.8% | 1.11× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 13.9% | 12.1% | 18.5% | 0.65× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 1.31× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 1.02× | 13.14 |
| 6 or more goals | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 0.59× | 22.60 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 43.8% | 44.5% | — | — | 2.25 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.6% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 22.7% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen not to win both halves | 97.3% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Motherwell not to win both halves | 80.3% | 84.1% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Motherwell to win both halves | 19.7% | 15.9% | — | — | 6.28 |
| Aberdeen to win both halves | 2.7% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.61 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen to win neither half | 69.7% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Motherwell to win either half | 69.1% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Motherwell to win neither half | 30.9% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Aberdeen to win either half | 30.3% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen not to win to nil | 90.2% | 92.0% | 85.3% | 1.08× | 1.09 |
| Motherwell not to win to nil | 64.0% | 66.8% | 72.6% | 0.92× | 1.50 |
| Motherwell to win to nil | 36.0% | 33.2% | 27.4% | 1.21× | 3.02 |
| Aberdeen to win to nil | 9.8% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 0.54× | 12.51 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell by 1 | 25.5% | 27.8% | 19.5% | 1.43× | 3.59 |
| Draw | 23.5% | 24.1% | 23.4% | 1.03× | 4.14 |
| Motherwell by 2 | 18.3% | 16.9% | 14.5% | 1.17× | 5.90 |
| Motherwell by 3+ | 15.1% | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.38× | 5.90 |
| Aberdeen by 1 | 12.1% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 0.67× | 8.46 |
| Aberdeen by 2 | 4.1% | 2.7% | 7.7% | 0.35× | 36.94 |
| Aberdeen by 3+ | 1.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 0.45× | 37.03 |