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Motherwell v Aberdeen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 15 September 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Motherwell win
61.1%
model 61.2%
Draw
20.5%
model 21.9%
Aberdeen win
18.4%
model 16.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 11.7%
  2. 2-0 11.2%
  3. 1-1 10.4%
  4. 2-1 9.9%
  5. 3-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.552.6% Under 2.547.4%
BTTS yes49.9% BTTS no50.1%
Motherwell 1+85.0% Motherwell 2+56.6%
Aberdeen 1+58.6% Aberdeen 2+22.1%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.88. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Motherwell (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 46%
63.4% fair odds 1.58
strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Aberdeen not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Motherwell carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1399.
  • Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Motherwell have an estimated 61.1% win probability, against 20.5% for the draw and 18.4% for Aberdeen. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.90 for Motherwell and 0.88 for Aberdeen.

Why Motherwell

Motherwell carry the stronger rating, 1605 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Aberdeen can win

Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Motherwell, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Aberdeen, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Motherwell: 57% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Aberdeen: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Motherwell's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Motherwell are the model's most likely outcome at 61.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.90–0.88 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.74–0.83 1-0 13% 47% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to win 59.0% 54.1% 45.9% 1.18× 1.85
Draw 23.5% 24.4% 23.4% 1.04× 4.09
Aberdeen to win 17.5% 19.3% 30.9% 0.63× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell & not both score 36.0% 33.2% 27.4% 1.21× 3.02
Motherwell & both teams score 22.9% 21.9% 18.7% 1.17× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 15.8% 17.9% 17.8% 1.00× 5.58
Aberdeen & not both score 9.8% 8.4% 14.7% 0.57× 11.94
Draw & not both score 7.8% 8.4% 5.8% 1.44× 11.94
Aberdeen & both teams score 7.7% 8.4% 16.4% 0.51× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell & over 1.5 45.6% 45.2% 36.7% 1.23× 2.21
Motherwell & under 3.5 41.3% 40.3% 30.1% 1.34× 2.48
Motherwell & over 2.5 34.0% 30.9% 28.2% 1.09× 3.24
Motherwell & under 2.5 25.0% 21.6% 17.8% 1.21× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 18.9% 18.0% 14.9% 1.20× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.9% 18.0% 14.9% 1.20× 5.56
Motherwell & over 3.5 17.7% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.8% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Aberdeen & under 3.5 14.2% 12.9% 22.4% 0.57× 7.77
Motherwell & under 1.5 13.3% 12.9% 9.3% 1.38× 7.78
Aberdeen & over 1.5 11.2% 12.9% 24.5% 0.53× 7.78
Aberdeen & over 2.5 8.6% 7.9% 20.5% 0.38× 12.69
Aberdeen & under 2.5 8.9% 7.9% 10.6% 0.74× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 7.8% 7.9% 5.8% 1.36× 12.69
Aberdeen & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 4.7% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.7% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.93
Aberdeen & over 3.5 3.3% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (1UP) 70.3% 75.4% 1.33
Aberdeen (1UP) 33.4% 32.9% 3.04
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (2UP) 59.0% 55.4% 1.81
Aberdeen (2UP) 17.5% 17.3% 5.79
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to win 2nd half 46.7% 45.7% 2.19
2nd half drawn 35.2% 36.0% 2.78
Aberdeen to win 2nd half 18.0% 19.3% 5.19
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (+2.5) 84.9% 82.4% 87.8% 0.94× 1.21
Motherwell (+0.5) 82.5% 82.4% 69.1% 1.19× 1.21
Aberdeen (+1.5) 66.6% 68.7% 73.4% 0.94× 1.46
Motherwell (-0.5) 59.0% 57.0% 45.9% 1.24× 1.75
Aberdeen (+0.5) 41.0% 43.0% 54.1% 0.79× 2.33
Motherwell (-1.5) 33.4% 31.3% 26.6% 1.18× 3.20
Aberdeen (-0.5) 17.5% 17.6% 30.9% 0.57× 5.68
Motherwell (-2.5) 15.1% 17.6% 12.2% 1.44× 5.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede 82.4% 81.3% 79.7% 1.02× 1.23
Aberdeen clean sheet 17.6% 18.7% 20.3% 0.92× 5.34
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen clean sheet in 1st half 47.4% 50.9% 1.97
Aberdeen to concede in 1st half 52.6% 49.1% 2.04
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 6.5 corners 88.8% 84.9% 1.18
Aberdeen under 5.5 corners 79.9% 75.8% 1.32
Aberdeen over 2.5 corners 69.6% 68.3% 1.47
Aberdeen under 4.5 corners 66.7% 68.2% 1.47
Aberdeen over 3.5 corners 50.6% 52.4% 1.91
Aberdeen under 3.5 corners 49.4% 47.6% 2.10
Aberdeen over 4.5 corners 33.3% 31.8% 3.15
Aberdeen under 2.5 corners 30.4% 31.7% 3.15
Aberdeen over 5.5 corners 20.1% 24.2% 4.14
Aberdeen over 6.5 corners 11.2% 15.1% 6.63
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 3.5 goals 99.0% 97.6% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Aberdeen under 2.5 goals 94.9% 92.4% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
Aberdeen under 1.5 goals 79.9% 76.2% 63.1% 1.21× 1.31
Aberdeen over 0.5 goals 56.2% 59.6% 67.0% 0.89× 1.68
Aberdeen under 0.5 goals 43.8% 40.4% 33.0% 1.22× 2.48
Aberdeen over 1.5 goals 20.1% 23.8% 36.9% 0.64× 4.21
Aberdeen over 2.5 goals 5.1% 7.6% 14.5% 0.53× 13.09
Aberdeen over 3.5 goals 1.0% 2.4% 3.7% 0.65× 41.15
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 1st half 95.6% 95.6% 1.05
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 1st half 71.9% 69.3% 1.44
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 1st half 28.1% 30.7% 3.26
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 1st half 4.4% 4.4% 22.62
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (away no bet) 71.5% 68.5% 66.2% 1.04× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 28.5% 31.5% 33.8% 0.93× 3.18
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen even goals 59.6% 57.0% 57.7% 0.99× 1.76
Aberdeen odd goals 40.4% 43.0% 42.3% 1.02× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.2% 87.9% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.8% 12.1% 8.27
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.2% 57.6% 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.8% 42.4% 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.0% 55.3% 1.81
Motherwell to score 2+ in a row 45.4% 45.9% 2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.5% 19.3% 5.18
Motherwell to score 3+ in a row 19.1% 16.5% 6.08
Aberdeen to score 2+ in a row 13.8% 12.0% 8.31
Aberdeen to score 3+ in a row 2.6% 2.6% 38.52
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell corners (+3.5) 92.6% 88.7% 1.13
Motherwell corners (+2.5) 87.4% 84.2% 1.19
Motherwell corners (+1.5) 79.9% 75.5% 1.33
Aberdeen corners (+3.5) 75.5% 75.5% 1.33
Aberdeen corners (+2.5) 65.3% 66.8% 1.50
Aberdeen corners (+1.5) 53.6% 52.3% 1.91
Motherwell corners (-1.5) 46.4% 47.7% 2.10
Motherwell corners (-2.5) 34.7% 33.2% 3.01
Motherwell corners (-3.5) 24.5% 24.5% 4.08
Aberdeen corners (-1.5) 20.1% 24.5% 4.08
Aberdeen corners (-2.5) 12.6% 15.8% 6.32
Aberdeen corners (-3.5) 7.4% 11.3% 8.82
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.2% 40.7% 2.46
9-11 corners 30.2% 32.0% 3.13
12+ corners 20.7% 26.3% 3.81
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.9% 82.8% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 79.3% 76.6% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 70.9% 72.5% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 62.8% 62.7% 1.60
Under 9.5 corners 60.7% 62.7% 1.60
Over 8.5 corners 50.8% 52.2% 1.91
Under 8.5 corners 49.2% 47.8% 2.09
Over 9.5 corners 39.3% 37.3% 2.68
Under 7.5 corners 37.2% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 29.1% 27.5% 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 20.7% 23.4% 4.28
Over 12.5 corners 14.1% 17.2% 5.80
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 13.3% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.73
2-0 11.6% 11.5% 8.7% 1.31× 8.73
1-1 11.1% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.73
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.46
0-0 7.8% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.46
3-0 6.7% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.46
0-1 6.3% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.46
3-1 5.6% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.46
0-2 2.6% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.58
0-3 0.7% 1.7% 3.3% 0.51× 58.59
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.11× 58.59
1-2 4.6% 1.7% 8.9% 0.19× 58.57
1-3 1.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.59
1-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.59
2-2 4.0% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.57
2-3 1.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.59
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.59
3-2 2.3% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.58
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.59
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.11× 58.59
4-0 2.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.48× 58.58
4-1 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.18× 58.58
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.59
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.23× 58.59
Any other score 3.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell leading at HT (DNB) 73.8% 71.6% 1.40
Aberdeen leading at HT (DNB) 26.2% 28.4% 3.52
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell or draw (1X) 82.5% 80.7% 69.1% 1.17× 1.24
Motherwell or Aberdeen (12) 76.5% 75.6% 76.6% 0.99× 1.32
Aberdeen or draw (X2) 41.0% 45.9% 54.1% 0.85× 2.18
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell or draw at HT 85.1% 88.0% 1.14
Aberdeen or draw at HT 57.9% 56.8% 1.76
Motherwell or Aberdeen at HT 57.0% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell or draw (1UP) 82.5% 88.5% 1.13
Aberdeen or draw (1UP) 41.0% 52.5% 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell or draw in 2nd half 82.0% 80.7% 1.24
Motherwell or Aberdeen in 2nd half 64.8% 64.0% 1.56
Aberdeen or draw in 2nd half 53.3% 54.3% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.0% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 37.0% 38.4% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (DNB) 77.1% 74.6% 59.7% 1.25× 1.34
Aberdeen (DNB) 22.9% 25.4% 40.3% 0.63× 3.94
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to score first 62.5% 64.3% 1.56
Aberdeen to score first 29.7% 28.5% 3.50
No goal scored 7.8% 7.4% 13.51
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 53.6% 51.5% 47.5% 1.08× 1.94
Both teams to score 46.4% 48.5% 52.5% 0.92× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 41.7% 41.5% 33.8% 1.23× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 35.3% 38.5% 43.4% 0.89× 2.60
Not both score & over 2.5 12.0% 12.3% 13.9% 0.89× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 11.1% 12.3% 9.3% 1.32× 8.11
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.6% 85.7% 83.8% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.4% 14.3% 16.2% 0.88× 6.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.4% 74.8% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.6% 25.2% 3.97
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.2% 66.8% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 20.9% 21.1% 4.75
Both score 1st half only 11.2% 10.5% 9.56
Both score in both halves 3.6% 5.0% 20.19
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.2% 85.2% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.8% 14.8% 6.75
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.0% 53.3% 1.88
A half without a goal 49.0% 46.7% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.0% 47.4% 45.9% 1.03× 2.11
0-1 goals 27.4% 26.4% 21.4% 1.24× 3.79
4-6 goals 24.0% 22.8% 31.3% 0.73× 4.38
7+ goals 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 0.97× 55.27
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score exactly 0 43.8% 37.0% 33.0% 1.12× 2.70
Aberdeen to score exactly 1 36.2% 36.0% 30.3% 1.19× 2.78
Aberdeen to score exactly 2 14.9% 12.8% 22.6% 0.57× 7.79
Aberdeen to score 3+ 5.1% 8.5% 14.5% 0.58× 11.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to score exactly 1 30.6% 32.6% 31.1% 1.05× 3.07
Motherwell to score exactly 2 26.6% 26.5% 25.1% 1.06× 3.77
Motherwell to score 3+ 25.3% 26.5% 23.9% 1.11× 3.77
Motherwell to score exactly 0 17.6% 18.9% 20.3% 0.93× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.0% 43.2% 2.31
Motherwell leading at HT 42.1% 43.2% 2.32
Aberdeen leading at HT 14.9% 12.0% 8.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell -1: 2 41.0% 42.7% 2.34
Motherwell -1: 1 33.4% 30.0% 3.33
Motherwell -1: X 25.5% 26.5% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (0:1) 41.0% 42.7% 54.1% 0.79× 2.34
Motherwell (0:1) 33.4% 30.0% 26.6% 1.13× 3.34
Draw (0:1) 25.5% 27.0% 19.5% 1.38× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (0:2) 66.6% 72.2% 73.4% 0.98× 1.39
Draw (0:2) 18.3% 15.3% 14.5% 1.06× 6.53
Motherwell (0:2) 15.1% 15.3% 12.2% 1.25× 6.54
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (0:3) 84.9% 85.2% 87.8% 0.97× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 9.5% 5.8% 6.8% 0.85× 17.20
Motherwell (0:3) 5.6% 5.8% 5.6% 1.03× 17.26
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (0:4) 94.4% 94.7% 94.4% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 3.9% 1.2% 4.8% 0.25× 83.02
Motherwell (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.16× 83.27
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (1:0) 82.5% 81.5% 69.1% 1.18× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 12.1% 12.8% 17.6% 0.73× 7.81
Aberdeen (1:0) 5.4% 6.9% 13.5% 0.51× 14.52
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (2:0) 94.6% 94.0% 86.5% 1.09× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.1% 2.3% 7.7% 0.30× 44.15
Aberdeen (2:0) 1.3% 2.3% 6.0% 0.37× 44.33
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.5% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 26.0% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to concede 56.2% 60.9% 67.0% 0.91× 1.64
Motherwell clean sheet 43.8% 39.1% 33.0% 1.18× 2.56
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell clean sheet in 1st half 71.9% 68.5% 1.46
Motherwell to concede in 1st half 28.1% 31.5% 3.18
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell over 2.5 corners 84.1% 81.3% 1.23
Motherwell under 6.5 corners 73.7% 71.5% 1.40
Motherwell over 3.5 corners 70.1% 71.5% 1.40
Motherwell under 5.5 corners 60.9% 62.0% 1.61
Motherwell over 4.5 corners 54.3% 53.1% 1.89
Motherwell under 4.5 corners 45.7% 46.9% 2.13
Motherwell over 5.5 corners 39.1% 38.0% 2.63
Motherwell under 3.5 corners 29.9% 28.5% 3.51
Motherwell over 6.5 corners 26.3% 28.5% 3.51
Motherwell under 2.5 corners 15.9% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell under 3.5 goals 90.1% 92.2% 92.1% 1.00× 1.08
Motherwell over 0.5 goals 82.4% 82.1% 79.7% 1.03× 1.22
Motherwell under 2.5 goals 74.7% 74.3% 76.1% 0.98× 1.35
Motherwell over 1.5 goals 51.8% 53.3% 48.8% 1.09× 1.88
Motherwell under 1.5 goals 48.2% 46.7% 51.2% 0.91× 2.14
Motherwell over 2.5 goals 25.3% 25.8% 23.9% 1.08× 3.88
Motherwell under 0.5 goals 17.6% 17.9% 20.3% 0.88× 5.60
Motherwell over 3.5 goals 9.9% 7.8% 7.9% 0.99× 12.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell under 1.5 in 1st half 82.8% 84.7% 1.18
Motherwell under 0.5 in 1st half 47.4% 51.0% 1.96
Motherwell over 0.5 in 1st half 52.6% 49.0% 2.04
Motherwell over 1.5 in 1st half 17.2% 15.3% 6.52
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 57.4% 56.7% 43.1% 1.31× 1.76
Aberdeen (home no bet) 42.6% 43.3% 56.9% 0.76× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell even goals 51.6% 50.6% 51.7% 0.98× 1.98
Motherwell odd goals 48.4% 49.4% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.1% 32.6% 3.07
HT 1-0 25.4% 28.6% 3.50
HT 0-1 11.2% 11.0% 9.06
HT 2-0 9.5% 7.1% 14.07
HT 1-1 8.4% 7.1% 14.09
Any other HT score 4.5% 2.2% 44.59
HT 2-1 3.1% 2.2% 44.69
HT 0-2 1.9% 2.2% 44.79
HT 1-2 1.4% 2.2% 44.83
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.2% 44.90
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell at HT / Motherwell at FT 36.4% 41.0% 2.44
Draw at HT / Motherwell at FT 20.1% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.2% 16.8% 5.96
Aberdeen at HT / Aberdeen at FT 8.6% 6.0% 16.54
Draw at HT / Aberdeen at FT 7.7% 6.0% 16.56
Motherwell at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.4% 29.11
Aberdeen at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.4% 29.13
Aberdeen at HT / Motherwell at FT 2.4% 3.4% 29.19
Motherwell at HT / Aberdeen at FT 1.2% 3.4% 29.24
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to score last 62.5% 62.3% 1.61
Aberdeen to score last 29.7% 27.6% 3.62
No goal scored 7.8% 7.4% 13.51
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.2% 92.7% 1.08
Motherwell to lead by 1 at any time 70.3% 73.9% 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.7% 44.0% 2.27
Motherwell to lead by 2 at any time 39.0% 34.8% 2.87
Aberdeen to lead by 1 at any time 33.4% 29.5% 3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.2% 15.0% 6.68
Motherwell to lead by 3 at any time 17.3% 14.9% 6.70
Aberdeen to lead by 2 at any time 8.8% 6.6% 15.26
Aberdeen to lead by 3 at any time 1.9% 1.6% 64.06
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell most corners 58.6% 55.4% 1.80
Aberdeen most corners 29.9% 32.1% 3.12
Corners level 11.5% 10.6% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.6% 87.4% 86.9% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.5% 83.5% 79.7% 1.05× 1.20
2-6 goals 71.0% 72.4% 77.0% 0.94× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.0% 69.0% 71.4% 0.97× 1.45
1-3 goals 66.6% 69.0% 61.4% 1.12× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.9% 63.5% 64.1% 0.99× 1.58
2-3 goals 47.0% 48.7% 45.9% 1.06× 2.06
3-6 goals 45.6% 48.7% 55.4% 0.88× 2.06
1-2 goals 45.0% 48.7% 37.3% 1.30× 2.06
3-5 goals 42.6% 43.6% 49.8% 0.88× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.5% 39.2% 42.5% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 24.0% 24.5% 31.3% 0.78× 4.09
4-5 goals 21.0% 24.4% 25.7% 0.95× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.1% 14.8% 13.1% 1.14× 6.74
7+ goals 1.6% 2.5% 1.9% 1.36× 39.51
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell never behind 58.8% 62.8% 1.59
Aberdeen never behind 21.9% 24.3% 4.11
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.6% 50.8% 48.5% 1.05× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.4% 49.2% 51.5% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.8% 57.8% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.2% 42.2% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.6% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.4% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.4% 95.5% 92.5% 1.03× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.3% 87.7% 85.3% 1.03× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 74.4% 72.5% 67.0% 1.08× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 72.6% 72.5% 78.6% 0.92× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.8% 52.4% 42.9% 1.22× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 47.2% 47.6% 57.1% 0.83× 2.10
Under 1.5 goals 27.4% 27.5% 21.4% 1.29× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 25.6% 27.5% 33.0% 0.83× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 11.7% 12.3% 14.7% 0.84× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 5.8% 1.33× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 4.6% 4.5% 7.5% 0.60× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.4% 97.3% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.0% 97.2% 91.9% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.4% 86.7% 82.0% 1.06× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 67.3% 67.3% 56.6% 1.19× 1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.3% 62.1% 72.8% 0.85× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.7% 37.9% 27.2% 1.39× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 32.7% 32.7% 43.4% 0.75× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.6% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.0% 2.8% 8.1% 0.34× 36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.6% 2.7% 2.0% 1.39× 36.40
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.5% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.7% 71.0% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.9% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.1% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.3% 29.0% 3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.5% 7.3% 13.71
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.2% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.3% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 56.2% 54.8% 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.8% 45.2% 2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.7% 20.1% 4.98
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.8% 17.1% 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to score in both halves 89.0% 86.0% 1.16
Motherwell not to score in both halves 66.9% 70.0% 1.43
Motherwell to score in both halves 33.1% 30.0% 3.34
Aberdeen to score in both halves 11.0% 14.0% 7.15
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.4% 50.3% 52.5% 0.96× 1.99
Only Motherwell scores 36.0% 39.8% 27.4% 1.45× 2.51
Only Aberdeen scores 9.8% 7.2% 14.7% 0.49× 13.92
Neither team scores 7.8% 7.2% 5.8% 1.24× 13.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.4% 25.0% 21.8% 1.15× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.6% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 19.6% 17.5% 15.8% 1.11× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 13.9% 12.1% 18.5% 0.65× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 7.8% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 7.1% 7.6% 7.5% 1.02× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.6% 4.4% 7.5% 0.59× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 43.8% 44.5% 2.25
1 goal in 2nd half 33.6% 33.9% 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 22.7% 23.5% 4.26
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to win both halves 97.3% 97.2% 1.03
Motherwell not to win both halves 80.3% 84.1% 1.19
Motherwell to win both halves 19.7% 15.9% 6.28
Aberdeen to win both halves 2.7% 2.8% 35.61
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to win neither half 69.7% 67.9% 1.47
Motherwell to win either half 69.1% 67.9% 1.47
Motherwell to win neither half 30.9% 32.1% 3.11
Aberdeen to win either half 30.3% 32.1% 3.12
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to win to nil 90.2% 92.0% 85.3% 1.08× 1.09
Motherwell not to win to nil 64.0% 66.8% 72.6% 0.92× 1.50
Motherwell to win to nil 36.0% 33.2% 27.4% 1.21× 3.02
Aberdeen to win to nil 9.8% 8.0% 14.7% 0.54× 12.51
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell by 1 25.5% 27.8% 19.5% 1.43× 3.59
Draw 23.5% 24.1% 23.4% 1.03× 4.14
Motherwell by 2 18.3% 16.9% 14.5% 1.17× 5.90
Motherwell by 3+ 15.1% 16.9% 12.2% 1.38× 5.90
Aberdeen by 1 12.1% 11.8% 17.6% 0.67× 8.46
Aberdeen by 2 4.1% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 36.94
Aberdeen by 3+ 1.3% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 37.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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