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Nantes v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 24 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

0–2
0.85 – 0.98 xG
Shots
18 – 7
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.85 – +1.02
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.81.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Josué Casimir 2' — goalSteve Ngoura 73' — goal
Nantes 0.85 xGLe Havre 0.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Issa Soumaré 2' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Josué Casimir 2' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 8' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Emmanuel Sabbi 15' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 29' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 32' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Florent Mollet 35' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 44' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Emmanuel Sabbi 45' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jean-Kevin Duverne 46' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Issa Soumaré 54' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Pedro Chirivella 55' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Cozza 58' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Johann Lepenant 68' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Moses Simon 68' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Steve Ngoura 73' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Johann Lepenant 76' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Nicolas Cozza 76' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Matthis Abline 77' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nathan Zeze 77' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Johann Lepenant 79' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Mostafa Mohamed 80' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Steve Ngoura 83' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Mostafa Mohamed 86' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Douglas Augusto 89' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Nantes attacking right Le Havre attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Le Havre Issa Soumaré 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
2' Le Havre Josué Casimir 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Goal
8' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.06 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
15' Le Havre Emmanuel Sabbi 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Josué Casimir
29' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.11 Open Play Missed Shot Moses Simon
32' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Florent Mollet
35' Nantes Florent Mollet 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matthis Abline
44' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot Florent Mollet
45' Le Havre Emmanuel Sabbi 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
46' Nantes Jean-Kevin Duverne 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
54' Le Havre Issa Soumaré 0.06 Set Piece Saved Shot Christopher Operi
55' Nantes Pedro Chirivella 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
58' Nantes Nicolas Cozza 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Fabien Centonze
68' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
68' Nantes Moses Simon 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Douglas Augusto
73' Le Havre Steve Ngoura 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Goal Josué Casimir
76' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
76' Nantes Nicolas Cozza 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
77' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bahereba Guirassy
77' Nantes Nathan Zeze 0.07 From Corner Saved Shot Moses Simon
79' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Matthis Abline
80' Nantes Mostafa Mohamed 0.09 Open Play Blocked Shot Fabien Centonze
83' Le Havre Steve Ngoura 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
86' Nantes Mostafa Mohamed 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
89' Nantes Douglas Augusto 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Fabien Centonze

Players

Le Havre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Josué Casimir DMR 90 1 1 1 2 0.30 0.45 0.75
Issa Soumaré AMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.02
Timothee Pembele DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yassine Kechta MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gautier Lloris DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Étienne Youté DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Daler Kuzyaev MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christopher Operi DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.00
Arthur Desmas GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
André Ayew FW 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Emmanuel Sabbi AMC 67 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.15
Rassoul Ndiaye Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steve Ngoura Sub 13 1 0 2 0 0.44 0.00 0.36
Yanis Zouaoui Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loïc Négo Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Nantes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matthis Abline FW 90 0 0 5 2 0.32 0.15 0.39
Johann Lepenant AMC 90 0 0 3 0 0.12 0.00 0.23
Nicolas Cozza DL 90 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.27
Nathan Zeze DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.19
Moses Simon AML 90 0 0 1 2 0.01 0.19 0.22
Douglas Augusto DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.17
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Alban Lafont GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Pedro Chirivella DMC 74 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.11
Florent Mollet AMR 64 0 0 1 2 0.07 0.09 0.12
Jean-Kevin Duverne DR 64 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Fabien Centonze Sub 26 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.14 0.24
Bahereba Guirassy Sub 26 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.11
Mostafa Mohamed Sub 16 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.12
Ignatius Ganago Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dehmaine Assoumani Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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