Nashville SC v Toronto — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627
USA-MLS
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyNashville SC win
66.9%
model 64.7%
Draw
22.3%
model 21.2%
Toronto win
10.8%
model 14.2%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 11.7%
- 1-0 11.1%
- 1-1 10.1%
- 2-1 9.8%
- 3-0 7.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 54.8% | Under 2.5 | 45.2% |
| BTTS yes | 49.8% | BTTS no | 50.2% |
| Nashville SC 1+ | 86.9% | Nashville SC 2+ | 60.3% |
| Toronto 1+ | 56.8% | Toronto 2+ | 20.6% |
Expected goals 2.03 – 0.84. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
56/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nashville SC (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 45%
63.6% fair odds 1.57
strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Nashville SC carry the stronger rating, 1687 Elo against 1470.
- Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Nashville SC have an estimated 66.9% win probability, against 22.3% for the draw and 10.8% for Toronto. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.03 for Nashville SC and 0.84 for Toronto.
Why Nashville SC
Nashville SC carry the stronger rating, 1687 Elo against 1470. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Toronto can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Nashville SC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Toronto, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Nashville SC: 52% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Toronto: 41% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Nashville SC's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Nashville SC are the model's most likely outcome at 66.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.7%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.03–0.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.95–0.76 | 2-0 13% | 51% | 46% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC to win | 65.0% | 58.2% | 45.4% | 1.28× | 1.72 |
| Draw | 21.7% | 24.4% | 24.9% | 0.98× | 4.09 |
| Toronto to win | 13.3% | 13.3% | 29.9% | 0.45× | 7.50 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC & not both score | 39.8% | 33.3% | 21.1% | 1.58× | 3.01 |
| Nashville SC & both teams score | 25.2% | 25.2% | 24.4% | 1.03× | 3.97 |
| Draw & both teams score | 14.6% | 13.3% | 19.1% | 0.69× | 7.54 |
| Draw & not both score | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 1.44× | 11.93 |
| Toronto & not both score | 7.2% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 0.68× | 11.93 |
| Toronto & both teams score | 6.2% | 8.4% | 17.8% | 0.47× | 11.93 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC & over 1.5 | 52.4% | 48.7% | 37.1% | 1.31× | 2.05 |
| Nashville SC & under 3.5 | 43.1% | 40.3% | 28.3% | 1.42× | 2.48 |
| Nashville SC & over 2.5 | 39.7% | 34.9% | 30.9% | 1.13× | 2.86 |
| Nashville SC & under 2.5 | 25.3% | 26.0% | 14.5% | 1.79× | 3.84 |
| Nashville SC & over 3.5 | 21.8% | 21.6% | 17.2% | 1.26× | 4.62 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 17.4% | 18.0% | 16.0% | 1.12× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 17.4% | 18.0% | 16.0% | 1.12× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 14.6% | 12.9% | 19.1% | 0.67× | 7.77 |
| Nashville SC & under 1.5 | 12.6% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 1.54× | 7.77 |
| Toronto & under 3.5 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 18.8% | 0.69× | 7.77 |
| Toronto & over 1.5 | 8.7% | 7.9% | 23.5% | 0.34× | 12.70 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 1.35× | 12.70 |
| Toronto & over 2.5 | 6.7% | 7.9% | 20.3% | 0.39× | 12.70 |
| Toronto & under 2.5 | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 0.81× | 12.70 |
| Toronto & under 1.5 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 0.73× | 20.92 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 0.53× | 20.92 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 0.53× | 20.92 |
| Toronto & over 3.5 | 2.5% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 0.43× | 20.94 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (1UP) | 75.2% | 78.6% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Toronto (1UP) | 29.1% | 27.2% | — | — | 3.68 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (2UP) | 65.0% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Toronto (2UP) | 13.3% | 13.5% | — | — | 7.40 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC to win 2nd half | 51.9% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| 2nd half drawn | 33.2% | 34.3% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Toronto to win 2nd half | 14.9% | 12.6% | — | — | 7.92 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (+0.5) | 86.7% | 88.5% | 70.1% | 1.26× | 1.13 |
| Toronto (+2.5) | 80.1% | 82.4% | 89.5% | 0.92× | 1.21 |
| Nashville SC (-0.5) | 65.0% | 62.9% | 45.4% | 1.39× | 1.59 |
| Toronto (+1.5) | 59.9% | 57.0% | 76.7% | 0.74× | 1.75 |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 40.1% | 43.0% | 23.3% | 1.85× | 2.33 |
| Toronto (+0.5) | 35.0% | 37.1% | 54.6% | 0.68× | 2.70 |
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 19.9% | 17.6% | 10.5% | 1.67× | 5.68 |
| Toronto (-0.5) | 13.3% | 11.5% | 29.9% | 0.39× | 8.69 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto to concede | 85.7% | 86.4% | 82.0% | 1.05× | 1.16 |
| Toronto clean sheet | 14.3% | 13.6% | 18.0% | 0.76× | 7.35 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto to concede in 1st half | 56.7% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Toronto clean sheet in 1st half | 43.3% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto under 6.5 corners | 90.1% | 90.0% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Toronto under 5.5 corners | 82.4% | 81.5% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Toronto under 4.5 corners | 70.8% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Toronto over 2.5 corners | 63.9% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Toronto under 3.5 corners | 54.9% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Toronto over 3.5 corners | 45.1% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Toronto under 2.5 corners | 36.1% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Toronto over 4.5 corners | 29.2% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Toronto over 5.5 corners | 17.6% | 18.5% | — | — | 5.39 |
| Toronto over 6.5 corners | 9.9% | 10.0% | — | — | 10.04 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto under 3.5 goals | 99.2% | 97.6% | 93.9% | 1.04× | 1.03 |
| Toronto under 2.5 goals | 95.9% | 97.5% | 83.3% | 1.17× | 1.03 |
| Toronto under 1.5 goals | 82.4% | 81.4% | 61.3% | 1.33× | 1.23 |
| Toronto over 0.5 goals | 53.1% | 53.7% | 73.2% | 0.73× | 1.86 |
| Toronto under 0.5 goals | 46.9% | 46.3% | 26.8% | 1.73× | 2.16 |
| Toronto over 1.5 goals | 17.6% | 18.6% | 38.7% | 0.48× | 5.39 |
| Toronto over 2.5 goals | 4.1% | 2.5% | 16.7% | 0.15× | 40.76 |
| Toronto over 3.5 goals | 0.8% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 0.40× | 40.94 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.2% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Toronto under 0.5 in 1st half | 73.9% | 68.7% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Toronto over 0.5 in 1st half | 26.1% | 31.3% | — | — | 3.20 |
| Toronto over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.8% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.30 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (away no bet) | 74.9% | 68.6% | 64.6% | 1.06× | 1.46 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 25.1% | 31.4% | 35.4% | 0.89× | 3.19 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto even goals | 61.0% | 59.0% | 53.6% | 1.10× | 1.69 |
| Toronto odd goals | 39.0% | 41.0% | 46.4% | 0.88× | 2.44 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 85.4% | 87.8% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 14.6% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.17 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 63.5% | 58.0% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 42.0% | — | — | 2.38 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 59.3% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Nashville SC to score 2+ in a row | 51.8% | 51.4% | — | — | 1.95 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 25.9% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Nashville SC to score 3+ in a row | 24.1% | 19.5% | — | — | 5.12 |
| Toronto to score 2+ in a row | 11.5% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.28 |
| Toronto to score 3+ in a row | 1.9% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.25 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC corners (+3.5) | 96.0% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Nashville SC corners (+2.5) | 93.1% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Nashville SC corners (+1.5) | 88.6% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Nashville SC corners (-1.5) | 65.2% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Toronto corners (+3.5) | 55.2% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Nashville SC corners (-2.5) | 55.0% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Toronto corners (+2.5) | 45.0% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Nashville SC corners (-3.5) | 44.8% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Toronto corners (+1.5) | 34.8% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Toronto corners (-1.5) | 11.4% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.46 |
| Toronto corners (-2.5) | 6.9% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
| Toronto corners (-3.5) | 4.0% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.54 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 36.2% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| 12+ corners | 34.9% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.0% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 73.5% | 72.7% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 73.1% | 72.7% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 65.1% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 63.9% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 56.1% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53.8% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 46.2% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43.9% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 36.2% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.73 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 34.9% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 26.9% | 27.3% | — | — | 3.66 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 26.5% | 27.3% | — | — | 3.66 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 1.37× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 12.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 1.82× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 1.11× | 8.74 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 0.75× | 13.47 |
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 1.27× | 13.47 |
| 3-0 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 1.80× | 13.47 |
| 3-1 | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.51× | 13.47 |
| 0-1 | 4.6% | 1.7% | 6.5% | 0.26× | 58.50 |
| Any other score | 4.9% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.36× | 58.50 |
| 0-2 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 0.51× | 58.51 |
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.93× | 58.52 |
| 0-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.13× | 58.52 |
| 1-2 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 7.4% | 0.23× | 58.50 |
| 1-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 0.50× | 58.52 |
| 1-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.24× | 58.52 |
| 2-2 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.50 |
| 2-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.71× | 58.52 |
| 2-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.99× | 58.52 |
| 3-2 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 58.51 |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.65× | 58.52 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.49× | 58.52 |
| 4-0 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.36× | 58.50 |
| 4-1 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.71× | 58.51 |
| 4-2 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.07× | 58.52 |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.13× | 58.52 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.73× | 58.52 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC leading at HT (DNB) | 78.6% | 78.3% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Toronto leading at HT (DNB) | 21.4% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC or draw (1X) | 86.7% | 86.7% | 70.1% | 1.24× | 1.15 |
| Nashville SC or Toronto (12) | 78.3% | 75.6% | 75.1% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Toronto or draw (X2) | 35.0% | 41.8% | 54.6% | 0.76× | 2.39 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC or draw at HT | 87.3% | 88.2% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Nashville SC or Toronto at HT | 59.2% | 56.6% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Toronto or draw at HT | 53.4% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC or draw (1UP) | 86.7% | 91.6% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Toronto or draw (1UP) | 35.0% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.39 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC or draw in 2nd half | 85.1% | 87.4% | — | — | 1.15 |
| Nashville SC or Toronto in 2nd half | 66.8% | 65.7% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Toronto or draw in 2nd half | 48.1% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 60.0% | 58.2% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Neither half drawn | 40.0% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.39 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (DNB) | 83.0% | 80.5% | 60.3% | 1.34× | 1.24 |
| Toronto (DNB) | 17.0% | 19.5% | 39.7% | 0.49× | 5.14 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC to score first | 66.9% | 69.5% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Toronto to score first | 26.0% | 28.0% | — | — | 3.57 |
| No goal scored | 7.1% | 7.5% | — | — | 13.36 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 54.1% | 51.5% | 38.9% | 1.32× | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 48.5% | 61.1% | 0.80× | 2.06 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 39.0% | 38.5% | 29.9% | 1.29× | 2.60 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 35.6% | 38.5% | 50.9% | 0.76× | 2.60 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 15.1% | 21.7% | 9.2% | 2.37× | 4.61 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.3% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 1.19× | 8.12 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 89.8% | 85.7% | 79.5% | 1.08× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 10.2% | 14.3% | 20.5% | 0.70× | 6.99 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 75.4% | 75.4% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 24.6% | 24.6% | — | — | 4.06 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 64.1% | 67.0% | — | — | 1.49 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 21.0% | 20.9% | — | — | 4.79 |
| Both score 1st half only | 11.3% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.50 |
| Both score in both halves | 3.6% | 4.9% | — | — | 20.36 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 85.1% | 85.5% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 14.9% | 14.5% | — | — | 6.90 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 54.0% | 53.5% | — | — | 1.87 |
| A half without a goal | 46.0% | 46.5% | — | — | 2.15 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 47.0% | 47.4% | 42.5% | 1.12× | 2.11 |
| 4-6 goals | 26.6% | 26.4% | 33.1% | 0.80× | 3.78 |
| 0-1 goals | 24.4% | 22.8% | 20.5% | 1.11× | 4.38 |
| 7+ goals | 2.1% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 0.44× | 55.04 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto to score exactly 0 | 46.9% | 42.9% | 26.8% | 1.60× | 2.33 |
| Toronto to score exactly 1 | 35.5% | 36.0% | 34.6% | 1.04× | 2.78 |
| Toronto to score exactly 2 | 13.4% | 12.8% | 22.1% | 0.58× | 7.81 |
| Toronto to score 3+ | 4.1% | 4.5% | 16.7% | 0.27× | 22.02 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC to score 3+ | 30.9% | 32.6% | 25.2% | 1.30× | 3.06 |
| Nashville SC to score exactly 1 | 27.8% | 26.5% | 31.0% | 0.85× | 3.77 |
| Nashville SC to score exactly 2 | 27.1% | 26.5% | 26.0% | 1.02× | 3.77 |
| Nashville SC to score exactly 0 | 14.3% | 14.4% | 18.0% | 0.80× | 6.97 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC leading at HT | 46.6% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Draw at HT | 40.8% | 43.4% | — | — | 2.31 |
| Toronto leading at HT | 12.7% | 11.8% | — | — | 8.49 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC -1: 1 | 40.1% | 42.7% | — | — | 2.34 |
| Nashville SC -1: 2 | 35.0% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Nashville SC -1: X | 24.9% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (0:1) | 40.1% | 42.6% | 23.3% | 1.83× | 2.35 |
| Toronto (0:1) | 35.0% | 37.2% | 54.6% | 0.68× | 2.69 |
| Draw (0:1) | 24.9% | 24.3% | 22.2% | 1.09× | 4.12 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto (0:2) | 59.9% | 63.0% | 76.7% | 0.82× | 1.59 |
| Draw (0:2) | 20.2% | 20.3% | 12.8% | 1.58× | 4.92 |
| Nashville SC (0:2) | 19.9% | 15.3% | 10.5% | 1.45× | 6.53 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto (0:3) | 80.1% | 85.0% | 89.5% | 0.95× | 1.18 |
| Draw (0:3) | 11.7% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 1.51× | 9.99 |
| Nashville SC (0:3) | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.45× | 17.17 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto (0:4) | 91.9% | 94.6% | 96.0% | 0.99× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 2.24× | 21.64 |
| Nashville SC (0:4) | 2.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.58× | 83.28 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (1:0) | 86.7% | 86.3% | 70.1% | 1.23× | 1.16 |
| Draw (1:0) | 9.4% | 6.9% | 16.8% | 0.41× | 14.43 |
| Toronto (1:0) | 3.9% | 3.2% | 13.2% | 0.24× | 31.48 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC (2:0) | 96.1% | 96.9% | 86.8% | 1.12× | 1.03 |
| Draw (2:0) | 3.1% | 2.3% | 8.7% | 0.26× | 44.31 |
| Toronto (2:0) | 0.8% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 0.49× | 44.46 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 46.8% | 48.1% | — | — | 2.08 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.5% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Halves equal | 25.8% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.78 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC to concede | 53.1% | 53.1% | 73.2% | 0.73× | 1.88 |
| Nashville SC clean sheet | 46.9% | 46.9% | 26.8% | 1.75× | 2.13 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC clean sheet in 1st half | 73.9% | 68.4% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Nashville SC to concede in 1st half | 26.1% | 31.6% | — | — | 3.17 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC over 2.5 corners | 91.4% | 89.3% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Nashville SC over 3.5 corners | 82.9% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Nashville SC over 4.5 corners | 72.0% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Nashville SC over 5.5 corners | 59.9% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Nashville SC under 6.5 corners | 52.3% | 52.8% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Nashville SC over 6.5 corners | 47.7% | 47.2% | — | — | 2.12 |
| Nashville SC under 5.5 corners | 40.1% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Nashville SC under 4.5 corners | 28.0% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Nashville SC under 3.5 corners | 17.1% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
| Nashville SC under 2.5 corners | 8.6% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.36 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC under 3.5 goals | 86.7% | 87.2% | 90.6% | 0.96× | 1.15 |
| Nashville SC over 0.5 goals | 85.7% | 87.2% | 82.0% | 1.06× | 1.15 |
| Nashville SC under 2.5 goals | 69.1% | 67.9% | 74.8% | 0.91× | 1.47 |
| Nashville SC over 1.5 goals | 57.9% | 58.8% | 51.1% | 1.15× | 1.70 |
| Nashville SC under 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 41.2% | 48.9% | 0.84× | 2.43 |
| Nashville SC over 2.5 goals | 30.9% | 32.1% | 25.2% | 1.28× | 3.11 |
| Nashville SC under 0.5 goals | 14.3% | 12.8% | 18.0% | 0.71× | 7.83 |
| Nashville SC over 3.5 goals | 13.3% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.36× | 7.84 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC under 1.5 in 1st half | 79.6% | 77.2% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Nashville SC over 0.5 in 1st half | 56.7% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Nashville SC under 0.5 in 1st half | 43.3% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Nashville SC over 1.5 in 1st half | 20.4% | 22.8% | — | — | 4.38 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 62.0% | 60.1% | 45.4% | 1.32× | 1.66 |
| Toronto (home no bet) | 38.0% | 39.9% | 54.6% | 0.73× | 2.51 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC even goals | 51.0% | 50.6% | 51.0% | 0.99× | 1.98 |
| Nashville SC odd goals | 49.0% | 49.4% | 49.0% | 1.01× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 32.1% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| HT 1-0 | 26.7% | 29.0% | — | — | 3.44 |
| HT 2-0 | 11.2% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.12 |
| HT 0-1 | 9.6% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.14 |
| HT 1-1 | 8.2% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.16 |
| Any other HT score | 5.6% | 7.0% | — | — | 14.20 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.4% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.81 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.5% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.96 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.98 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.5% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.03 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC at HT / Nashville SC at FT | 41.5% | 44.1% | — | — | 2.27 |
| Draw at HT / Nashville SC at FT | 20.9% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 14.0% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.89 |
| Toronto at HT / Toronto at FT | 6.5% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.61 |
| Draw at HT / Toronto at FT | 5.9% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.63 |
| Nashville SC at HT / Draw at FT | 4.1% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.83 |
| Toronto at HT / Draw at FT | 3.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.85 |
| Toronto at HT / Nashville SC at FT | 2.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.89 |
| Nashville SC at HT / Toronto at FT | 1.0% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.95 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC to score last | 67.0% | 70.0% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Toronto to score last | 25.9% | 26.8% | — | — | 3.73 |
| No goal scored | 7.1% | 7.5% | — | — | 13.36 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 92.9% | 92.6% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Nashville SC to lead by 1 at any time | 75.2% | 78.0% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 52.3% | 50.7% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Nashville SC to lead by 2 at any time | 45.6% | 44.0% | — | — | 2.27 |
| Toronto to lead by 1 at any time | 29.1% | 25.3% | — | — | 3.95 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 23.6% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.10 |
| Nashville SC to lead by 3 at any time | 22.3% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.11 |
| Toronto to lead by 2 at any time | 6.9% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.26 |
| Toronto to lead by 3 at any time | 1.3% | 1.5% | — | — | 65.31 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC most corners | 74.5% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Toronto most corners | 17.5% | 19.2% | — | — | 5.21 |
| Corners level | 7.9% | 8.5% | — | — | 11.81 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.2% | 87.4% | 83.2% | 1.05× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.1% | 78.6% | 73.1% | 1.08× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 73.6% | 72.4% | 75.5% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 69.9% | 69.0% | 68.5% | 1.01× | 1.45 |
| 1-3 goals | 64.2% | 63.4% | 57.2% | 1.11× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.9% | 63.4% | 58.4% | 1.09× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 48.7% | 48.7% | 55.9% | 0.87× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 47.0% | 48.7% | 42.5% | 1.15× | 2.06 |
| 3-5 goals | 45.0% | 48.7% | 48.9% | 0.99× | 2.06 |
| 1-2 goals | 42.2% | 43.6% | 34.4% | 1.27× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 37.0% | 39.2% | 38.8% | 1.01× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 26.6% | 30.2% | 33.1% | 0.91× | 3.31 |
| 4-5 goals | 23.0% | 24.5% | 26.1% | 0.94× | 4.09 |
| 5-6 goals | 11.7% | 14.9% | 17.2% | 0.87× | 6.73 |
| 7+ goals | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 0.62× | 39.42 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC never behind | 63.8% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Toronto never behind | 17.7% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.36 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 48.9% | 50.8% | 50.2% | 1.01× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 51.1% | 49.2% | 49.8% | 0.99× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.3% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.7% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.5% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.5% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 94.3% | 92.3% | 88.9% | 1.04× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92.9% | 92.3% | 94.2% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 86.3% | 87.6% | 78.8% | 1.11× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | 77.4% | 79.5% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71.4% | 72.5% | 62.9% | 1.15× | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 52.4% | 59.9% | 0.88× | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 47.6% | 40.1% | 1.19× | 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 27.5% | 37.1% | 0.74× | 3.64 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 22.6% | 20.5% | 1.10× | 4.42 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13.7% | 12.4% | 21.2% | 0.58× | 8.09 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 1.32× | 12.94 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 5.7% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 0.70× | 12.95 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 97.9% | 97.2% | 95.6% | 1.02× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 93.8% | 92.5% | 87.6% | 1.06× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 83.9% | 81.1% | 74.8% | 1.08× | 1.23 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 67.5% | 67.4% | 74.5% | 0.90× | 1.48 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 63.3% | 62.1% | 51.9% | 1.20× | 1.61 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 36.8% | 37.9% | 48.1% | 0.79× | 2.64 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 32.5% | 32.6% | 25.5% | 1.28× | 3.07 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 16.1% | 18.9% | 25.2% | 0.75× | 5.29 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 6.2% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 0.61× | 13.28 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 0.62× | 36.36 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 89.2% | 89.1% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 68.4% | 69.2% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 67.9% | 69.1% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 32.1% | 30.9% | — | — | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 31.6% | 30.8% | — | — | 3.24 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 10.8% | 10.9% | — | — | 9.19 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 79.3% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 78.9% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 53.5% | 53.5% | — | — | 1.87 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 46.5% | 46.5% | — | — | 2.15 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 21.1% | 20.0% | — | — | 4.99 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 20.7% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.00 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto not to score in both halves | 90.5% | 89.8% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Nashville SC not to score in both halves | 62.0% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Nashville SC to score in both halves | 38.0% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.74 |
| Toronto to score in both halves | 9.5% | 10.2% | — | — | 9.81 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 45.9% | 50.4% | 61.1% | 0.83× | 1.99 |
| Only Nashville SC scores | 39.8% | 39.9% | 21.1% | 1.89× | 2.51 |
| Neither team scores | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 1.23× | 13.91 |
| Only Toronto scores | 7.2% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 0.59× | 13.91 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 24.9% | 22.6% | 19.7% | 1.15× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.1% | 22.6% | 22.9% | 0.99× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 17.3% | 17.4% | 14.8% | 1.18× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 14.9% | 12.1% | 16.0% | 0.75× | 8.28 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 8.1% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 0.75× | 13.09 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 1.31× | 13.09 |
| 6 or more goals | 5.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 0.69× | 13.10 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 46.5% | 44.6% | — | — | 2.24 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 32.5% | 33.6% | — | — | 2.97 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 21.1% | 23.0% | — | — | 4.35 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto not to win both halves | 98.1% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Nashville SC not to win both halves | 75.7% | 75.2% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Nashville SC to win both halves | 24.3% | 24.8% | — | — | 4.03 |
| Toronto to win both halves | 1.9% | 2.8% | — | — | 36.26 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto to win neither half | 74.3% | 73.2% | — | — | 1.37 |
| Nashville SC to win either half | 74.2% | 73.1% | — | — | 1.37 |
| Nashville SC to win neither half | 25.8% | 26.9% | — | — | 3.72 |
| Toronto to win either half | 25.7% | 26.8% | — | — | 3.73 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto not to win to nil | 92.8% | 92.0% | 87.7% | 1.05× | 1.09 |
| Nashville SC not to win to nil | 60.2% | 66.7% | 78.9% | 0.85× | 1.50 |
| Nashville SC to win to nil | 39.8% | 33.3% | 21.1% | 1.58× | 3.00 |
| Toronto to win to nil | 7.2% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 0.65× | 12.56 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC by 1 | 24.9% | 24.2% | 22.2% | 1.09× | 4.14 |
| Draw | 21.7% | 24.1% | 24.9% | 0.97× | 4.14 |
| Nashville SC by 2 | 20.2% | 24.1% | 12.8% | 1.88× | 4.14 |
| Nashville SC by 3+ | 19.9% | 17.0% | 10.5% | 1.61× | 5.90 |
| Toronto by 1 | 9.4% | 7.3% | 16.8% | 0.43× | 13.79 |
| Toronto by 2 | 3.1% | 2.7% | 8.7% | 0.31× | 37.04 |
| Toronto by 3+ | 0.8% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 0.59× | 37.11 |