Necaxa v Puebla — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Necaxa

21:00

Puebla

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 137h before kick-off

Necaxa win

51.5%

model 52.5%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.5%

Puebla win

21.2%

model 22.0%

512721

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.1%
2-1 9.8%
1-0 9.5%
2-0 9.2%
0-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.4%	Under 2.5	46.6%
BTTS yes	55.1%	BTTS no	44.9%
Necaxa 1+	82.6%	Necaxa 2+	52.2%
Puebla 1+	65.5%	Puebla 2+	28.8%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

36/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Necaxa or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 71%

78.5% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 1358 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Necaxa carry the stronger rating, 1438 Elo against 1382.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Necaxa have an estimated 51.5% win probability, against 27.3% for the draw and 21.2% for Puebla. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.75 for Necaxa and 1.06 for Puebla.

Why Necaxa

Necaxa carry the stronger rating, 1438 Elo against 1382.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why Puebla can win

Nothing in the data singles out Puebla.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Necaxa, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Puebla, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Necaxa: 50% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Puebla: 39% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Necaxa's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Necaxa are the model's most likely outcome at 51.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	522622	1.75–1.06	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542619	1.66–0.90	1-1 13%	47%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa to win	54.4%	51.5%	47.1%	1.09×	1.94
Draw	26.4%	27.9%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59
Puebla to win	19.3%	19.4%	29.3%	0.66×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa & not both score	32.0%	29.7%	22.7%	1.31×	3.36
Necaxa & both teams score	22.4%	21.9%	24.5%	0.89×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	17.9%	17.4%	1.03×	5.58
Puebla & not both score	10.3%	13.2%	11.7%	1.13×	7.55
Puebla & both teams score	9.0%	8.4%	17.8%	0.47×	11.94
Draw & not both score	8.7%	8.4%	6.6%	1.27×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa & over 1.5	42.5%	40.3%	37.3%	1.08×	2.48
Necaxa & under 3.5	38.0%	34.9%	30.9%	1.13×	2.86
Necaxa & over 2.5	31.8%	30.9%	30.4%	1.02×	3.24
Necaxa & under 2.5	22.5%	21.6%	16.9%	1.28×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	17.9%	1.21×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	21.3%	21.6%	17.9%	1.21×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Necaxa & over 3.5	16.3%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Puebla & under 3.5	15.2%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Puebla & over 1.5	13.3%	12.9%	23.4%	0.55×	7.78
Necaxa & under 1.5	11.8%	12.9%	9.9%	1.29×	7.78
Puebla & over 2.5	10.2%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.69
Puebla & under 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.69
Puebla & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.69
Puebla & over 3.5	4.1%	4.8%	9.8%	0.49×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa (1UP)	67.2%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Puebla (1UP)	36.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa (2UP)	54.4%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Puebla (2UP)	19.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa to win 2nd half	43.7%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
2nd half drawn	36.4%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Puebla to win 2nd half	19.9%	19.4%	—	—	5.15

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (+2.5)	86.9%	88.5%	90.9%	0.97×	1.13
Necaxa (+0.5)	80.7%	82.4%	70.7%	1.17×	1.21
Puebla (+1.5)	69.8%	68.7%	77.1%	0.89×	1.46
Necaxa (-0.5)	54.4%	52.4%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
Puebla (+0.5)	45.6%	47.6%	52.9%	0.90×	2.10
Necaxa (-1.5)	30.2%	31.3%	22.9%	1.36×	3.20
Puebla (-0.5)	19.3%	17.6%	29.3%	0.60×	5.68
Necaxa (-2.5)	13.1%	11.5%	9.1%	1.27×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to concede	81.0%	81.3%	81.9%	0.99×	1.23
Puebla clean sheet	19.0%	18.7%	18.1%	1.03×	5.33

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla clean sheet in 1st half	49.0%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Puebla to concede in 1st half	51.0%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla over 2.5 corners	80.9%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Puebla under 6.5 corners	71.4%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Puebla over 3.5 corners	67.3%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Puebla under 5.5 corners	60.2%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Puebla over 4.5 corners	53.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Puebla under 4.5 corners	46.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Puebla over 5.5 corners	39.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Puebla under 3.5 corners	32.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Puebla over 6.5 corners	28.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Puebla under 2.5 corners	19.1%	19.1%	—	—	5.24

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.6%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Puebla under 2.5 goals	93.7%	92.4%	86.7%	1.07×	1.08
Puebla under 1.5 goals	77.3%	76.2%	64.8%	1.18×	1.31
Puebla over 0.5 goals	59.3%	59.6%	70.9%	0.84×	1.68
Puebla under 0.5 goals	40.7%	40.4%	29.1%	1.39×	2.48
Puebla over 1.5 goals	22.7%	23.8%	35.2%	0.68×	4.21
Puebla over 2.5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	13.3%	0.57×	13.08
Puebla over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.4%	4.1%	0.60×	41.13

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla under 1.5 in 1st half	94.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Puebla under 0.5 in 1st half	69.8%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Puebla over 0.5 in 1st half	30.2%	31.9%	—	—	3.14
Puebla over 1.5 in 1st half	5.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.34

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa (away no bet)	67.3%	66.5%	66.4%	1.00×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	32.7%	33.5%	33.6%	1.00×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla even goals	58.3%	56.9%	54.4%	1.05×	1.76
Puebla odd goals	41.7%	43.1%	45.6%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.1%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Necaxa to score 2+ in a row	42.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.19
Necaxa to score 3+ in a row	17.0%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Puebla to score 2+ in a row	16.0%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Puebla to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.10

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa corners (+3.5)	86.0%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Necaxa corners (+2.5)	80.3%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Necaxa corners (+1.5)	73.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Puebla corners (+3.5)	70.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Puebla corners (+2.5)	61.9%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Puebla corners (+1.5)	53.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Necaxa corners (-1.5)	47.0%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Necaxa corners (-2.5)	38.1%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Necaxa corners (-3.5)	30.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Puebla corners (-1.5)	26.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Puebla corners (-2.5)	19.7%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Puebla corners (-3.5)	14.0%	15.8%	—	—	6.31

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	46.6%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
0-8 corners	27.1%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 8.5 corners	72.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	64.3%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 12.5 corners	61.7%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 10.5 corners	55.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	53.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Over 11.5 corners	46.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Under 10.5 corners	44.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	38.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 9.5 corners	35.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 8.5 corners	27.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	19.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.5%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
1-0	11.8%	11.5%	9.9%	1.15×	8.73
2-0	10.7%	11.5%	7.1%	1.61×	8.73
0-0	8.7%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.46
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	10.7%	0.70×	13.46
0-1	5.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.46
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	8.9%	0.84×	13.46
3-0	5.9%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.46
3-1	5.3%	7.4%	5.7%	1.31×	13.46
0-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.57
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.59
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.92×	58.59
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.58
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.92×	58.59
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.57
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.59
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.59
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.58
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.59
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.92×	58.59
4-0	2.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.58
4-1	2.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.58
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.59
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.80×	58.59
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa leading at HT (DNB)	70.7%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Puebla leading at HT (DNB)	29.3%	28.9%	—	—	3.46

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa or draw (1X)	80.7%	80.6%	70.7%	1.14×	1.24
Necaxa or Puebla (12)	73.6%	72.1%	76.2%	0.95×	1.39
Puebla or draw (X2)	45.6%	48.5%	52.9%	0.92×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa or draw at HT	83.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Puebla or draw at HT	60.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Necaxa or Puebla at HT	56.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa or draw (1UP)	80.7%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Puebla or draw (1UP)	45.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa or draw in 2nd half	80.1%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Necaxa or Puebla in 2nd half	63.6%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Puebla or draw in 2nd half	56.3%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.2%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.8%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa (DNB)	73.8%	71.5%	61.6%	1.16×	1.40
Puebla (DNB)	26.2%	28.5%	38.4%	0.74×	3.51

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa to score first	59.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Puebla to score first	32.0%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
No goal scored	8.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	51.0%	51.4%	40.7%	1.26×	1.94
Both teams to score	49.0%	48.6%	59.3%	0.82×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.3%	41.5%	32.7%	1.27×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	36.5%	38.5%	48.0%	0.80×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.5%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.7%	12.3%	8.2%	1.51×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.8%	85.7%	82.6%	1.04×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.2%	14.3%	17.4%	0.82×	6.99

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.2%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.8%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.9%	21.1%	—	—	4.74
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Both score in both halves	3.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.12

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.4%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	48.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.0%	47.4%	46.2%	1.03×	2.11
0-1 goals	26.5%	26.4%	22.2%	1.19×	3.79
4-6 goals	23.9%	22.8%	29.1%	0.78×	4.38
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	55.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to score exactly 0	40.7%	36.9%	29.1%	1.27×	2.71
Puebla to score exactly 1	36.6%	36.0%	35.9%	1.00×	2.78
Puebla to score exactly 2	16.4%	19.5%	22.0%	0.89×	5.12
Puebla to score 3+	6.3%	8.5%	13.3%	0.64×	11.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa to score exactly 1	31.6%	32.6%	33.4%	0.98×	3.06
Necaxa to score exactly 2	26.2%	26.5%	26.6%	0.99×	3.77
Necaxa to score 3+	23.2%	23.3%	22.2%	1.05×	4.30
Necaxa to score exactly 0	19.0%	18.9%	18.1%	1.04×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Necaxa leading at HT	39.7%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Puebla leading at HT	16.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa -1: 2	45.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Necaxa -1: 1	30.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.34
Necaxa -1: X	24.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (0:1)	45.6%	45.8%	52.9%	0.87×	2.18
Necaxa (0:1)	30.2%	29.9%	22.9%	1.30×	3.35
Draw (0:1)	24.1%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.11

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (0:2)	69.8%	72.3%	77.1%	0.94×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	17.1%	15.3%	14.0%	1.09×	6.53
Necaxa (0:2)	13.1%	11.0%	9.1%	1.22×	9.08

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (0:3)	86.9%	90.7%	90.9%	1.00×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.5%	5.8%	6.0%	0.96×	17.21
Necaxa (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	41.93

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (0:4)	95.3%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.3%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.09
Necaxa (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	83.31

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa (1:0)	80.7%	81.4%	70.7%	1.15×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.6%	12.8%	19.0%	0.67×	7.81
Puebla (1:0)	6.7%	6.9%	10.5%	0.66×	14.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa (2:0)	93.3%	94.0%	89.5%	1.05×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.0%	2.3%	7.3%	0.31×	44.09
Puebla (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	3.4%	0.67×	44.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	27.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa to concede	59.3%	61.0%	70.9%	0.86×	1.64
Necaxa clean sheet	40.7%	39.0%	29.1%	1.34×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa clean sheet in 1st half	69.8%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Necaxa to concede in 1st half	30.2%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa over 2.5 corners	88.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Necaxa over 3.5 corners	78.9%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Necaxa over 4.5 corners	67.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Necaxa under 6.5 corners	56.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Necaxa over 5.5 corners	55.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Necaxa under 5.5 corners	44.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Necaxa over 6.5 corners	43.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Necaxa under 4.5 corners	32.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Necaxa under 3.5 corners	21.1%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Necaxa under 2.5 corners	11.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa under 3.5 goals	91.3%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Necaxa over 0.5 goals	81.0%	82.1%	81.9%	1.00×	1.22
Necaxa under 2.5 goals	76.8%	77.7%	77.8%	1.00×	1.29
Necaxa under 1.5 goals	50.5%	53.3%	51.3%	1.04×	1.88
Necaxa over 1.5 goals	49.5%	46.7%	48.7%	0.96×	2.14
Necaxa over 2.5 goals	23.2%	22.3%	22.2%	1.00×	4.48
Necaxa under 0.5 goals	19.0%	17.9%	18.1%	0.99×	5.60
Necaxa over 3.5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	84.7%	—	—	1.18
Necaxa under 0.5 in 1st half	49.0%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Necaxa over 0.5 in 1st half	51.0%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Necaxa over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	15.3%	—	—	6.56

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.8%	56.7%	44.8%	1.27×	1.76
Puebla (home no bet)	42.2%	43.3%	55.2%	0.78×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa even goals	51.8%	50.6%	49.9%	1.01×	1.98
Necaxa odd goals	48.2%	49.4%	50.1%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.4%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
HT 1-0	24.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	12.1%	11.1%	—	—	9.05
HT 1-1	8.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-0	8.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.61
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.69
HT 0-2	2.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.77
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.82
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.90

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa at HT / Necaxa at FT	33.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Draw at HT / Necaxa at FT	18.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Puebla at HT / Puebla at FT	9.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Draw at HT / Puebla at FT	8.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.55
Necaxa at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.08
Puebla at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.11
Puebla at HT / Necaxa at FT	2.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.19
Necaxa at HT / Puebla at FT	1.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa to score last	59.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Puebla to score last	31.9%	32.7%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	8.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Necaxa to lead by 1 at any time	67.2%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.3%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Puebla to lead by 1 at any time	36.1%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Necaxa to lead by 2 at any time	36.0%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Necaxa to lead by 3 at any time	15.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Puebla to lead by 2 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Puebla to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	—	—	63.47

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa most corners	56.2%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Puebla most corners	34.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	8.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	86.5%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.6%	78.6%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	71.9%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.9%	69.0%	70.9%	0.97×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.8%	69.0%	61.8%	1.12×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.8%	63.5%	60.2%	1.05×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.0%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.5%	48.7%	53.3%	0.91×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.1%	43.6%	37.7%	1.16×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.5%	43.6%	49.0%	0.89×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.4%	39.2%	38.4%	1.02×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.9%	24.5%	29.1%	0.84×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.9%	24.4%	24.9%	0.98×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.1%	14.8%	15.1%	0.98×	6.74
7+ goals	1.6%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Necaxa never behind	55.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
Puebla never behind	24.1%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.7%	50.8%	52.6%	0.97×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.3%	49.2%	47.4%	1.04×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.4%	95.5%	92.9%	1.03×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.3%	87.7%	82.2%	1.07×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.5%	72.5%	68.2%	1.06×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	73.5%	72.5%	77.8%	0.93×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.9%	52.4%	44.1%	1.19×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	47.1%	47.6%	56.0%	0.85×	2.10
Under 1.5 goals	26.5%	27.5%	22.2%	1.24×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	25.5%	27.5%	31.8%	0.86×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	11.7%	12.3%	17.8%	0.69×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	6.6%	1.18×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.6%	4.5%	7.1%	0.63×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.3%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.0%	97.2%	92.0%	1.06×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.4%	86.7%	79.3%	1.09×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.5%	67.3%	58.1%	1.16×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	64.0%	62.1%	71.6%	0.87×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.0%	37.9%	28.4%	1.33×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.5%	32.7%	41.9%	0.78×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.6%	13.3%	20.7%	0.64×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.0%	2.8%	8.0%	0.35×	36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.7%	3.0%	0.93×	36.40

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.6%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.7%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.6%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.4%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.3%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.4%	7.3%	—	—	13.72

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.98
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla not to score in both halves	87.4%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Necaxa not to score in both halves	68.8%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Necaxa to score in both halves	31.2%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Puebla to score in both halves	12.6%	14.1%	—	—	7.09

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.0%	50.4%	59.3%	0.85×	1.99
Only Necaxa scores	32.0%	33.4%	22.7%	1.47×	3.00
Only Puebla scores	10.3%	10.9%	11.7%	0.93×	9.15
Neither team scores	8.7%	7.2%	6.6%	1.09×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	25.0%	22.0%	1.13×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	17.8%	17.5%	15.8%	1.10×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.8%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	8.7%	7.6%	6.6%	1.16×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.1%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.6%	4.4%	7.1%	0.62×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.1%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	32.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla not to win both halves	96.6%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Necaxa not to win both halves	82.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Necaxa to win both halves	17.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.33
Puebla to win both halves	3.4%	2.8%	—	—	35.33

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to win neither half	67.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Necaxa to win either half	65.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Necaxa to win neither half	34.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Puebla to win either half	33.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla not to win to nil	89.7%	88.2%	88.3%	1.00×	1.13
Necaxa not to win to nil	68.0%	69.6%	77.3%	0.90×	1.44
Necaxa to win to nil	32.0%	30.4%	22.7%	1.34×	3.30
Puebla to win to nil	10.3%	11.8%	11.7%	1.00×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.4%	27.8%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59
Necaxa by 1	24.1%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
Necaxa by 2	17.1%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.90
Necaxa by 3+	13.1%	11.8%	9.1%	1.30×	8.46
Puebla by 1	12.6%	11.8%	19.0%	0.62×	8.46
Puebla by 2	5.0%	2.7%	7.3%	0.37×	36.91
Puebla by 3+	1.7%	2.7%	3.4%	0.80×	37.02