New Caledonia v China PR — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 7 September 2026 · FIFA:108 · 2627
FIFA:108
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.4%
- 1-0 10.6%
- 2-1 8.9%
- 0-1 8.7%
- 2-0 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.3% | Under 2.5 | 51.7% |
| BTTS yes | 52.5% | BTTS no | 47.5% |
| New Caledonia 1+ | 76.2% | New Caledonia 2+ | 42.0% |
| China PR 1+ | 69.0% | China PR 2+ | 32.7% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- New Caledonia have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while China PR have allowed 1.35.
- At home New Caledonia average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- New Caledonia have only 0 matches on record.
- China PR have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
New Caledonia have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 30.8% for China PR and 26.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for New Caledonia and 1.17 for China PR.
Why New Caledonia
New Caledonia have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while China PR have allowed 1.35. At home New Caledonia average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.1%.
Why China PR can win
China PR have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while New Caledonia have allowed 1.35. Away from home China PR average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for New Caledonia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for China PR, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
New Caledonia: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. China PR: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
New Caledonia are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.43–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.