Norwich City v Bolton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627
Championship
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.2%
- 1-0 9.8%
- 2-1 9.5%
- 2-0 9.0%
- 0-0 8.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | Under 2.5 | 50.2% |
| BTTS yes | 53.6% | BTTS no | 46.4% |
| Norwich City 1+ | 79.9% | Norwich City 2+ | 47.7% |
| Bolton Wanderers 1+ | 65.4% | Bolton Wanderers 2+ | 28.6% |
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Norwich City.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Bolton Wanderers have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Norwich City have an estimated 48.7% win probability, against 27.7% for the draw and 23.7% for Bolton Wanderers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.61 for Norwich City and 1.06 for Bolton Wanderers.
Why Norwich City
Nothing in the data singles out Norwich City.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.7%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Bolton Wanderers can win
Nothing in the data singles out Bolton Wanderers.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Norwich City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Bolton Wanderers, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Norwich City: 55% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Bolton Wanderers: 54% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Norwich City are the model's most likely outcome at 48.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.61–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.58–0.93 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 49% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.