Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 12
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.14 – -0.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
24.3%
Draw
31.2%
Aston Villa win
44.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Aston Villa have scored 16 from 16.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLLDWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.86 xGAston Villa 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amadou Onana |
| 6' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 19' |
Aston Villa |
Victor Lindelöf | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 22' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | John McGinn |
| 37' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ola Aina |
| 41' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 42' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 43' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ola Aina |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 60' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 61' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Igor Jesus |
| 63' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 69' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 84' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 85' |
Aston Villa |
Victor Lindelöf | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Chris Wood Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Ndoye Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 0.79 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| John McGinn AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.51 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.41 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Marco Bizot GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Rogers AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.02 | 0.60 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Ross Barkley AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Douglas Luiz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |