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Oldham Athletic v Chesterfield — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-League Two · 2627

ENG-League Two results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Oldham Athletic win
49.4%
Draw
26.4%
Chesterfield win
24.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.44–0.92 1-0 14% 42% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic to win 49.4% 47.5% 42.6% 1.11× 2.11
Draw 26.4% 27.9% 26.2% 1.06× 3.59
Chesterfield to win 24.3% 24.4% 31.3% 0.78× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic & not both score 30.5% 29.7% 23.4% 1.27× 3.37
Oldham Athletic & both teams score 18.8% 17.9% 19.4% 0.92× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 17.2% 17.9% 19.4% 0.92× 5.58
Chesterfield & not both score 14.4% 13.3% 17.1% 0.77× 7.55
Chesterfield & both teams score 9.9% 8.4% 14.4% 0.58× 11.94
Draw & not both score 9.2% 8.4% 6.9% 1.21× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic & under 3.5 37.2% 34.9% 29.9% 1.17× 2.86
Oldham Athletic & over 1.5 35.7% 34.9% 30.5% 1.14× 2.86
Oldham Athletic & over 2.5 25.9% 26.0% 23.9% 1.09× 3.84
Oldham Athletic & under 2.5 23.5% 21.6% 18.9% 1.14× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 21.5% 21.6% 18.9% 1.14× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 21.5% 21.6% 18.9% 1.14× 4.62
Chesterfield & under 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 23.9% 0.75× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.2% 18.0% 19.4% 0.93× 5.56
Chesterfield & over 1.5 15.4% 18.0% 23.1% 0.78× 5.56
Oldham Athletic & under 1.5 13.7% 12.9% 12.3% 1.05× 7.77
Chesterfield & under 2.5 12.8% 12.9% 14.1% 0.92× 7.78
Oldham Athletic & over 3.5 12.2% 12.9% 12.9% 1.00× 7.78
Chesterfield & over 2.5 11.4% 12.9% 17.4% 0.74× 7.78
Draw & under 1.5 9.2% 7.9% 6.9% 1.13× 12.69
Chesterfield & under 1.5 8.8% 7.9% 8.4% 0.94× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 4.8% 4.8% 7.4% 0.64× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.8% 4.8% 7.4% 0.64× 20.93
Chesterfield & over 3.5 4.4% 4.8% 7.6% 0.63× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic (1UP) 62.2% 63.1% 1.58
Chesterfield (1UP) 39.8% 34.2% 2.92
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic (2UP) 49.4% 50.1% 2.00
Chesterfield (2UP) 24.3% 23.7% 4.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic to win 2nd half 39.1% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 38.0% 36.1% 2.77
Chesterfield to win 2nd half 22.9% 23.0% 4.35
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield (+2.5) 90.5% 92.1% 93.4% 0.99× 1.09
Oldham Athletic (+0.5) 75.7% 78.5% 68.7% 1.14× 1.28
Chesterfield (+1.5) 75.6% 78.5% 81.3% 0.97× 1.28
Chesterfield (+0.5) 50.6% 52.3% 57.4% 0.91× 1.91
Oldham Athletic (-0.5) 49.4% 47.7% 42.6% 1.12× 2.10
Oldham Athletic (-1.5) 24.4% 21.5% 18.7% 1.15× 4.64
Chesterfield (-0.5) 24.3% 21.5% 31.3% 0.69× 4.64
Oldham Athletic (-2.5) 9.5% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.65
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield to concede 76.4% 79.0% 76.1% 1.04× 1.27
Chesterfield clean sheet 23.6% 21.0% 23.9% 0.88× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield to concede in 1st half 46.3% 50.8% 1.97
Chesterfield clean sheet in 1st half 53.7% 49.2% 2.03
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield under 3.5 goals 98.5% 97.6% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Chesterfield under 2.5 goals 93.3% 92.4% 88.5% 1.04× 1.08
Chesterfield under 1.5 goals 76.4% 76.2% 65.1% 1.17× 1.31
Chesterfield over 0.5 goals 60.3% 62.9% 69.8% 0.90× 1.59
Chesterfield under 0.5 goals 39.7% 37.1% 30.2% 1.23× 2.70
Chesterfield over 1.5 goals 23.6% 23.8% 34.9% 0.68× 4.20
Chesterfield over 2.5 goals 6.7% 7.6% 11.5% 0.67× 13.08
Chesterfield over 3.5 goals 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 0.89× 41.12
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield under 1.5 in 1st half 94.7% 94.2% 1.06
Chesterfield under 0.5 in 1st half 69.1% 68.1% 1.47
Chesterfield over 0.5 in 1st half 30.9% 31.9% 3.13
Chesterfield over 1.5 in 1st half 5.3% 5.8% 17.31
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic (away no bet) 65.2% 66.4% 62.0% 1.07× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 34.8% 33.6% 38.0% 0.88× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield even goals 57.9% 56.9% 55.9% 1.02× 1.76
Chesterfield odd goals 42.1% 43.1% 44.1% 0.98× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.6% 88.1% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.4% 11.9% 8.38
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 55.6% 59.4% 1.68
Both halves under 1.5 goals 44.4% 40.6% 2.46
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 49.2% 46.2% 2.17
Oldham Athletic to score 2+ in a row 35.8% 36.2% 2.76
Chesterfield to score 2+ in a row 17.4% 16.4% 6.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row 16.3% 16.4% 6.10
Oldham Athletic to score 3+ in a row 12.7% 12.0% 8.33
Chesterfield to score 3+ in a row 3.8% 2.6% 37.79
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 13.7% 11.5% 12.3% 0.93× 8.73
1-1 12.3% 11.5% 12.1% 0.95× 8.73
0-0 9.2% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.46
0-1 8.8% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.46
2-0 9.8% 7.4% 6.8% 1.10× 13.46
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 8.6% 0.87× 13.46
1-2 5.8% 7.4% 7.8% 0.96× 13.46
3-0 4.7% 1.7% 2.7% 0.62× 58.57
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.28× 58.59
3-1 4.3% 1.7% 5.0% 0.34× 58.57
3-2 2.0% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.58
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.59
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
4-0 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.58
4-1 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.58
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.64× 58.59
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.52× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
Any other score 1.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 58.58
0-2 4.0% 1.7% 5.8% 0.29× 58.57
0-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.59
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.59
1-3 1.8% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.58
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.59
2-2 4.2% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.57
2-3 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic leading at HT (DNB) 65.7% 73.2% 1.37
Chesterfield leading at HT (DNB) 34.3% 26.8% 3.73
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic or draw (1X) 75.7% 75.6% 68.7% 1.10× 1.32
Oldham Athletic or Chesterfield (12) 73.6% 72.1% 73.8% 0.98× 1.39
Chesterfield or draw (X2) 50.6% 52.5% 57.4% 0.92× 1.91
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic or draw at HT 81.5% 84.1% 1.19
Chesterfield or draw at HT 64.6% 62.3% 1.61
Oldham Athletic or Chesterfield at HT 53.9% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic or draw (1UP) 75.7% 83.8% 1.19
Chesterfield or draw (1UP) 50.6% 58.6% 1.71
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic or draw in 2nd half 77.1% 77.0% 1.30
Oldham Athletic or Chesterfield in 2nd half 62.0% 63.9% 1.57
Chesterfield or draw in 2nd half 60.9% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.8% 69.8% 1.43
Neither half drawn 33.2% 30.2% 3.31
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic (DNB) 67.1% 67.2% 57.6% 1.17× 1.49
Chesterfield (DNB) 32.9% 32.8% 42.4% 0.78× 3.05
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic to score first 55.4% 62.1% 1.61
Chesterfield to score first 35.4% 32.4% 3.09
No goal scored 9.2% 7.5% 13.41
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.1% 51.5% 47.2% 1.09× 1.94
Both teams to score 45.9% 48.5% 52.8% 0.92× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 45.5% 44.2% 39.6% 1.12× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.5% 34.4% 40.9% 0.84× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 12.3% 12.3% 12.1% 1.02× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.6% 8.4% 7.8% 1.08× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.0% 89.1% 86.3% 1.03× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 10.0% 10.9% 13.7% 0.80× 9.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.2% 74.9% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.8% 25.1% 3.99
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 65.4% 62.3% 1.61
Both score 2nd half only 20.4% 21.0% 4.75
Both score 1st half only 10.8% 10.5% 9.56
Both score in both halves 3.4% 4.9% 20.24
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.8% 85.3% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.3% 14.7% 6.79
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 53.1% 53.4% 1.87
A goal in each half 46.9% 46.6% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.8% 47.4% 45.2% 1.05× 2.11
0-1 goals 31.7% 30.7% 27.3% 1.12× 3.26
4-6 goals 20.4% 22.8% 26.3% 0.87× 4.39
7+ goals 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.24× 55.33
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield to score exactly 0 39.7% 36.0% 30.2% 1.19× 2.78
Chesterfield to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 35.1% 1.03× 2.78
Chesterfield to score exactly 2 16.9% 19.5% 23.6% 0.83× 5.12
Chesterfield to score 3+ 6.7% 8.5% 11.5% 0.74× 11.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic to score exactly 1 34.1% 32.7% 36.7% 0.89× 3.06
Oldham Athletic to score exactly 2 24.6% 23.3% 23.1% 1.01× 4.30
Oldham Athletic to score exactly 0 23.6% 23.3% 23.9% 0.97× 4.30
Oldham Athletic to score 3+ 17.7% 18.9% 16.6% 1.13× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.1% 52.4% 1.91
Oldham Athletic leading at HT 35.4% 37.7% 2.65
Chesterfield leading at HT 18.5% 15.9% 6.28
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic -1: 2 50.6% 52.0% 1.92
Oldham Athletic -1: X 25.0% 23.6% 4.24
Oldham Athletic -1: 1 24.4% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield (0:1) 50.6% 51.1% 57.4% 0.89× 1.96
Draw (0:1) 25.0% 24.3% 24.1% 1.01× 4.11
Oldham Athletic (0:1) 24.4% 24.3% 18.7% 1.30× 4.11
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield (0:2) 75.6% 79.4% 81.3% 0.98× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.9% 11.0% 12.3% 0.90× 9.07
Oldham Athletic (0:2) 9.5% 7.7% 6.6% 1.17× 12.96
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield (0:3) 90.5% 92.6% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.5% 5.8% 4.0% 1.44× 17.25
Oldham Athletic (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% 0.87× 42.01
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield (0:4) 97.0% 98.1% 97.3% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.2% 1.9% 0.62× 83.21
Oldham Athletic (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 1.24× 83.38
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic (1:0) 75.7% 78.5% 68.7% 1.14× 1.28
Draw (1:0) 16.0% 17.0% 17.4% 0.98× 5.88
Chesterfield (1:0) 8.2% 6.9% 14.1% 0.49× 14.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic (2:0) 91.8% 93.9% 85.9% 1.09× 1.07
Draw (2:0) 6.1% 6.5% 9.4% 0.69× 15.50
Chesterfield (2:0) 2.1% 2.3% 4.8% 0.47× 44.28
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.9% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 27.0% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic to concede 60.3% 63.3% 69.8% 0.91× 1.58
Oldham Athletic clean sheet 39.7% 36.7% 30.2% 1.21× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic clean sheet in 1st half 69.1% 68.4% 1.46
Oldham Athletic to concede in 1st half 30.9% 31.6% 3.17
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic under 3.5 goals 94.1% 92.3% 95.0% 0.97× 1.08
Oldham Athletic under 2.5 goals 82.3% 82.1% 83.4% 0.99× 1.22
Oldham Athletic over 0.5 goals 76.4% 77.7% 76.1% 1.02× 1.29
Oldham Athletic under 1.5 goals 57.7% 58.8% 60.4% 0.97× 1.70
Oldham Athletic over 1.5 goals 42.3% 41.2% 39.6% 1.04× 2.43
Oldham Athletic under 0.5 goals 23.6% 22.3% 23.9% 0.93× 4.48
Oldham Athletic over 2.5 goals 17.7% 17.9% 16.6% 1.07× 5.60
Oldham Athletic over 3.5 goals 5.9% 7.8% 5.0% 1.55× 12.90
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic under 1.5 in 1st half 87.1% 89.9% 1.11
Oldham Athletic over 0.5 in 1st half 46.3% 50.9% 1.96
Oldham Athletic under 0.5 in 1st half 53.7% 49.1% 2.04
Oldham Athletic over 1.5 in 1st half 12.9% 10.1% 9.93
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.1% 51.6% 45.5% 1.13× 1.94
Chesterfield (home no bet) 47.9% 48.4% 54.5% 0.89× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic even goals 52.8% 50.6% 50.4% 1.00× 1.97
Oldham Athletic odd goals 47.2% 49.4% 49.6% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.1% 38.5% 2.60
HT 1-0 23.1% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 13.7% 11.1% 9.03
HT 1-1 8.5% 7.1% 14.09
HT 2-0 7.2% 7.1% 14.11
Any other HT score 3.1% 2.2% 44.69
HT 2-1 2.6% 2.2% 44.73
HT 0-2 2.5% 2.2% 44.74
HT 1-2 1.6% 2.2% 44.82
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.2% 44.90
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic at HT / Oldham Athletic at FT 29.1% 26.7% 3.74
Draw at HT / Oldham Athletic at FT 18.1% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.3% 16.8% 5.95
Chesterfield at HT / Chesterfield at FT 12.1% 12.7% 7.90
Draw at HT / Chesterfield at FT 10.6% 12.6% 7.91
Oldham Athletic at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.09
Chesterfield at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.4% 29.11
Chesterfield at HT / Oldham Athletic at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.20
Oldham Athletic at HT / Chesterfield at FT 1.5% 3.4% 29.23
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic to score last 55.4% 56.4% 1.77
Chesterfield to score last 35.4% 38.2% 2.62
No goal scored 9.2% 7.5% 13.41
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.8% 92.7% 1.08
Oldham Athletic to lead by 1 at any time 62.2% 61.4% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 41.6% 39.0% 2.56
Chesterfield to lead by 1 at any time 39.8% 34.8% 2.87
Oldham Athletic to lead by 2 at any time 29.6% 25.3% 3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.1% 10.5% 9.53
Chesterfield to lead by 2 at any time 12.1% 10.4% 9.57
Oldham Athletic to lead by 3 at any time 11.2% 10.4% 9.59
Chesterfield to lead by 3 at any time 2.9% 1.6% 62.93
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.4% 87.4% 89.7% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.6% 83.5% 82.1% 1.02× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.4% 69.0% 65.6% 1.05× 1.45
2-6 goals 67.2% 69.0% 71.4% 0.97× 1.45
2-5 goals 64.9% 63.5% 69.3% 0.92× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.1% 59.2% 61.7% 0.96× 1.69
1-2 goals 48.6% 48.7% 44.8% 1.09× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.8% 48.7% 45.2% 1.08× 2.06
3-6 goals 41.1% 43.6% 47.2% 0.92× 2.29
3-5 goals 38.8% 39.2% 45.1% 0.87× 2.55
3-4 goals 33.0% 35.4% 37.5% 0.94× 2.83
4-6 goals 20.4% 24.4% 26.3% 0.93× 4.09
4-5 goals 18.1% 18.6% 24.2% 0.77× 5.37
5-6 goals 8.1% 8.7% 9.9% 0.89× 11.44
7+ goals 1.1% 2.5% 1.5% 1.74× 39.53
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oldham Athletic never behind 51.0% 62.5% 1.60
Chesterfield never behind 28.6% 30.0% 3.33
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.9% 50.8% 49.6% 1.02× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.1% 49.2% 50.4% 0.98× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.8% 57.9% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 43.2% 42.1% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.1% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.9% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.6% 95.5% 96.4% 0.99× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 93.1% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 88.9% 1.04× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 78.6% 77.4% 72.4% 1.07× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 68.3% 66.3% 72.7% 0.91× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 57.8% 58.8% 51.5% 1.14× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 42.2% 41.2% 48.5% 0.85× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 31.7% 33.7% 27.3% 1.24× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 21.4% 22.6% 27.6% 0.82× 4.42
Under 0.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 6.9% 1.11× 12.94
Over 4.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 11.1% 0.69× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 3.4% 4.5% 3.6% 1.27× 22.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.9% 97.3% 98.5% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.4% 97.2% 96.2% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.5% 86.7% 86.7% 1.00× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 73.0% 72.6% 65.1% 1.12× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 57.1% 55.5% 64.0% 0.87× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 42.9% 44.5% 36.0% 1.23× 2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 27.0% 27.4% 34.9% 0.79× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.5% 13.3% 13.3% 0.99× 7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.6% 2.8% 3.8% 0.72× 36.34
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.1% 2.7% 1.5% 1.85× 36.41
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.2% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.0% 71.1% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.9% 63.7% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.1% 36.3% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 26.0% 28.9% 3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.8% 7.2% 13.95
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 83.9% 83.0% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.8% 78.0% 1.28
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.0% 61.7% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.0% 38.3% 2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.2% 22.0% 4.55
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 16.1% 17.0% 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield not to score in both halves 86.9% 85.9% 1.17
Oldham Athletic not to score in both halves 74.1% 74.4% 1.35
Oldham Athletic to score in both halves 25.9% 25.6% 3.90
Chesterfield to score in both halves 13.1% 14.1% 7.07
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 45.9% 50.3% 52.8% 0.95× 1.99
Only Oldham Athletic scores 30.5% 33.3% 23.4% 1.42× 3.00
Only Chesterfield scores 14.4% 11.0% 17.1% 0.64× 9.13
Neither team scores 9.2% 7.2% 6.9% 1.03× 13.93
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.1% 25.0% 24.4% 1.02× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 22.5% 22.6% 20.5% 1.10× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 20.7% 22.6% 21.0% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 12.3% 12.1% 16.6% 0.72× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 9.2% 7.6% 6.9% 1.10× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 5.8% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.14
6 or more goals 3.4% 4.4% 3.6% 1.24× 22.62
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 40.0% 40.3% 2.48
1 goal in 2nd half 34.9% 33.9% 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 25.2% 29.5% 3.39
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield not to win both halves 95.8% 97.1% 1.03
Oldham Athletic not to win both halves 86.2% 88.0% 1.14
Oldham Athletic to win both halves 13.8% 12.0% 8.34
Chesterfield to win both halves 4.2% 2.9% 34.97
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield to win neither half 62.9% 65.4% 1.53
Oldham Athletic to win either half 60.7% 65.3% 1.53
Oldham Athletic to win neither half 39.3% 34.7% 2.88
Chesterfield to win either half 37.1% 34.6% 2.89
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Chesterfield not to win to nil 85.6% 88.2% 82.9% 1.06× 1.13
Oldham Athletic not to win to nil 69.5% 69.7% 76.6% 0.91× 1.44
Oldham Athletic to win to nil 30.5% 30.3% 23.4% 1.29× 3.30
Chesterfield to win to nil 14.4% 11.8% 17.1% 0.69× 8.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.4% 27.8% 26.2% 1.06× 3.59
Oldham Athletic by 1 25.0% 24.1% 24.1% 1.00× 4.14
Chesterfield by 1 16.0% 16.9% 17.4% 0.97× 5.90
Oldham Athletic by 2 14.9% 11.8% 12.3% 0.96× 8.46
Oldham Athletic by 3+ 9.5% 7.2% 6.6% 1.09× 13.79
Chesterfield by 2 6.1% 7.2% 9.4% 0.77× 13.81
Chesterfield by 3+ 2.1% 2.7% 4.8% 0.56× 37.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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