Paderborn v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.1%
- 0-1 9.1%
- 1-0 8.7%
- 1-2 8.5%
- 2-1 8.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | Under 2.5 | 48.6% |
| BTTS yes | 55.5% | BTTS no | 44.5% |
| Paderborn 1+ | 73.7% | Paderborn 2+ | 38.6% |
| Hoffenheim 1+ | 75.3% | Hoffenheim 2+ | 40.7% |
Expected goals 1.34 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1485.
- Hoffenheim have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Paderborn have allowed 1.36.
- Away from home Hoffenheim average 1.61 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Paderborn have only 2 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Hoffenheim have an estimated 38.6% win probability, against 35.8% for Paderborn and 25.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for Paderborn and 1.40 for Hoffenheim.
Why Paderborn
Paderborn have created 0.71 xG a match over their last five while Hoffenheim have allowed 1.90. At home Paderborn average 0.73 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hoffenheim were missing 1.08 expected goal involvements a match against 0.16.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.33 to 1.40. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Hoffenheim can win
Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1485. Hoffenheim have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Paderborn have allowed 1.36. Away from home Hoffenheim average 1.61 xG a match.
Key players
Paderborn's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marvin Pieringer (0.36), Laurin Curda (0.22), Rayan Philippe (0.20). Hoffenheim's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tim Lemperle (0.40), Andrej Kramaric (0.39), Fisnik Asllani (0.36).
Availability
2 of Hoffenheim's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hoffenheim's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Paderborn: 54% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces. Hoffenheim: 59% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 14.5 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Hoffenheim are the model's most likely outcome at 38.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.34–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.17–1.24 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 49% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.