PAOK v Aris — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 September 2026 · GRE-Super League · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyPAOK win
52.6%
model 52.7%
Draw
27.9%
model 28.6%
Aris win
19.5%
model 18.7%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.7%
- 1-0 10.6%
- 2-0 10.5%
- 0-0 9.7%
- 2-1 9.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 47.4% | Under 2.5 | 52.6% |
| BTTS yes | 50.6% | BTTS no | 49.4% |
| PAOK 1+ | 80.9% | PAOK 2+ | 49.2% |
| Aris 1+ | 60.0% | Aris 2+ | 23.3% |
Expected goals 1.65 – 0.92. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
PAOK (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 66%
81.9% fair odds 1.22
moderate signal · 1065 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Aris not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- PAOK carry the stronger rating, 1724 Elo against 1604.
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
PAOK have an estimated 52.6% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 19.5% for Aris. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.65 for PAOK and 0.92 for Aris.
Why PAOK
PAOK carry the stronger rating, 1724 Elo against 1604. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Aris can win
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for PAOK, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Aris, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
PAOK: 49% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Aris: 54% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
PAOK are the model's most likely outcome at 52.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.65–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.66–0.69 | 1-0 14% | 41% | 42% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK to win | 58.8% | 54.1% | 41.5% | 1.30× | 1.85 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.9% | 25.1% | 1.11× | 3.59 |
| Aris to win | 13.2% | 13.3% | 33.7% | 0.40× | 7.50 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK & not both score | 38.8% | 33.2% | 24.0% | 1.38× | 3.01 |
| PAOK & both teams score | 20.0% | 21.9% | 17.7% | 1.24× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 16.4% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 1.06× | 5.58 |
| Draw & not both score | 11.6% | 13.2% | 8.4% | 1.57× | 7.55 |
| Aris & not both score | 7.5% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 0.43× | 11.95 |
| Aris & both teams score | 5.7% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 0.58× | 11.95 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK & over 1.5 | 44.9% | 40.3% | 32.4% | 1.24× | 2.48 |
| PAOK & under 3.5 | 43.5% | 40.3% | 29.8% | 1.35× | 2.48 |
| PAOK & over 2.5 | 31.7% | 30.9% | 26.5% | 1.16× | 3.24 |
| PAOK & under 2.5 | 27.2% | 26.0% | 15.2% | 1.71× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 24.4% | 21.6% | 21.4% | 1.01× | 4.62 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 24.4% | 21.6% | 21.4% | 1.01× | 4.62 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 16.4% | 18.0% | 16.8% | 1.07× | 5.56 |
| PAOK & over 3.5 | 15.3% | 18.0% | 11.9% | 1.51× | 5.56 |
| PAOK & under 1.5 | 14.0% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 1.39× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 11.6% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 1.53× | 7.78 |
| Aris & under 3.5 | 11.2% | 12.9% | 26.7% | 0.48× | 7.78 |
| Aris & over 1.5 | 8.6% | 7.9% | 24.2% | 0.33× | 12.69 |
| Aris & over 2.5 | 6.3% | 7.9% | 18.5% | 0.43× | 12.69 |
| Aris & under 2.5 | 6.9% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 0.51× | 12.69 |
| Aris & under 1.5 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 9.7% | 0.50× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.22× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.22× | 20.93 |
| Aris & over 3.5 | 2.1% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 0.66× | 20.94 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK (1UP) | 69.6% | 70.2% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Aris (1UP) | 28.2% | 27.0% | — | — | 3.71 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK (2UP) | 58.8% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Aris (2UP) | 13.2% | 13.5% | — | — | 7.38 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK to win 2nd half | 46.9% | 45.7% | — | — | 2.19 |
| 2nd half drawn | 38.2% | 36.1% | — | — | 2.77 |
| Aris to win 2nd half | 15.0% | 12.4% | — | — | 8.10 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK (+0.5) | 86.8% | 88.5% | 66.3% | 1.33× | 1.13 |
| Aris (+2.5) | 85.0% | 88.5% | 89.3% | 0.99× | 1.13 |
| Aris (+1.5) | 66.1% | 68.7% | 78.9% | 0.87× | 1.46 |
| PAOK (-0.5) | 58.8% | 57.0% | 41.5% | 1.37× | 1.75 |
| Aris (+0.5) | 41.2% | 43.0% | 58.5% | 0.73× | 2.33 |
| PAOK (-1.5) | 33.9% | 31.3% | 21.2% | 1.48× | 3.20 |
| PAOK (-2.5) | 15.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 1.08× | 8.68 |
| Aris (-0.5) | 13.2% | 11.5% | 33.7% | 0.34× | 8.69 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris to concede | 80.9% | 81.3% | 72.3% | 1.12× | 1.23 |
| Aris clean sheet | 19.1% | 18.7% | 27.7% | 0.68× | 5.33 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris clean sheet in 1st half | 49.1% | 51.0% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Aris to concede in 1st half | 50.9% | 49.0% | — | — | 2.04 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris over 2.5 corners | 81.1% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Aris under 6.5 corners | 68.5% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Aris over 3.5 corners | 68.3% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Aris under 5.5 corners | 57.6% | 56.9% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Aris over 4.5 corners | 55.0% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Aris under 4.5 corners | 45.0% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Aris over 5.5 corners | 42.4% | 43.1% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Aris under 3.5 corners | 31.7% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Aris over 6.5 corners | 31.5% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Aris under 2.5 corners | 18.9% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris under 3.5 goals | 99.5% | 97.6% | 96.7% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Aris under 2.5 goals | 96.8% | 97.6% | 89.7% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Aris under 1.5 goals | 84.9% | 81.5% | 67.6% | 1.21× | 1.23 |
| Aris under 0.5 goals | 50.4% | 53.7% | 32.2% | 1.67× | 1.86 |
| Aris over 0.5 goals | 49.6% | 46.3% | 67.8% | 0.68× | 2.16 |
| Aris over 1.5 goals | 15.1% | 18.5% | 32.4% | 0.57× | 5.41 |
| Aris over 2.5 goals | 3.2% | 2.4% | 10.3% | 0.24× | 41.02 |
| Aris over 3.5 goals | 0.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.74× | 41.17 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.9% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Aris under 0.5 in 1st half | 76.0% | 75.6% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Aris over 0.5 in 1st half | 24.0% | 24.4% | — | — | 4.10 |
| Aris over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.1% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.64 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK (away no bet) | 67.8% | 66.5% | 62.3% | 1.07× | 1.50 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 32.2% | 33.5% | 37.7% | 0.89× | 2.98 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris even goals | 62.7% | 59.1% | 56.7% | 1.04× | 1.69 |
| Aris odd goals | 37.3% | 40.9% | 43.3% | 0.94× | 2.44 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 89.8% | 88.1% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 10.2% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.39 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 56.0% | 59.5% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 40.5% | — | — | 2.47 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 51.4% | 51.1% | — | — | 1.96 |
| PAOK to score 2+ in a row | 43.9% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 19.7% | 16.5% | — | — | 6.07 |
| PAOK to score 3+ in a row | 18.2% | 16.4% | — | — | 6.09 |
| Aris to score 2+ in a row | 10.3% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.38 |
| Aris to score 3+ in a row | 1.6% | 2.6% | — | — | 39.10 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris corners (+3.5) | 85.0% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Aris corners (+2.5) | 78.8% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| PAOK corners (+3.5) | 75.1% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Aris corners (+1.5) | 71.0% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| PAOK corners (+2.5) | 67.1% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| PAOK corners (+1.5) | 57.9% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Aris corners (-1.5) | 42.1% | 43.2% | — | — | 2.31 |
| Aris corners (-2.5) | 32.9% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| PAOK corners (-1.5) | 29.0% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Aris corners (-3.5) | 24.9% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| PAOK corners (-2.5) | 21.2% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| PAOK corners (-3.5) | 15.0% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.31 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 40.6% | 37.0% | — | — | 2.70 |
| 12+ corners | 32.6% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.8% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 74.5% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 68.9% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 67.4% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 59.4% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 59.2% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 50.1% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49.9% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 40.9% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 40.6% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 32.6% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 31.1% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 25.5% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 1.24× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 13.2% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 1.86× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 0.87× | 8.73 |
| 0-0 | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 1.36× | 8.73 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 0.86× | 13.46 |
| 3-0 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.17× | 13.46 |
| 0-1 | 4.6% | 1.7% | 9.7% | 0.18× | 58.57 |
| 3-1 | 5.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.56 |
| 0-2 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.29× | 58.58 |
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.59 |
| 0-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.08× | 58.59 |
| 1-2 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 8.6% | 0.20× | 58.57 |
| 1-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.83× | 58.59 |
| 1-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.19× | 58.59 |
| 2-2 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 0.46× | 58.57 |
| 2-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.76× | 58.59 |
| 2-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.77× | 58.59 |
| 3-2 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.58 |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.16× | 58.59 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.31× | 58.59 |
| 4-0 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.92× | 58.58 |
| 4-1 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.19× | 58.58 |
| 4-2 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.19× | 58.59 |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.31× | 58.59 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.31× | 58.59 |
| Any other score | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.69× | 58.58 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK leading at HT (DNB) | 76.9% | 77.8% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Aris leading at HT (DNB) | 23.1% | 22.2% | — | — | 4.50 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK or draw (1X) | 86.8% | 86.7% | 66.3% | 1.31× | 1.15 |
| PAOK or Aris (12) | 72.0% | 72.1% | 74.9% | 0.96× | 1.39 |
| Aris or draw (X2) | 41.2% | 45.9% | 58.5% | 0.78× | 2.18 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK or draw at HT | 87.4% | 88.2% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Aris or draw at HT | 58.2% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| PAOK or Aris at HT | 54.4% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK or draw (1UP) | 86.8% | 91.6% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Aris or draw (1UP) | 41.2% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.90 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK or draw in 2nd half | 85.0% | 87.7% | — | — | 1.14 |
| PAOK or Aris in 2nd half | 61.8% | 63.9% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Aris or draw in 2nd half | 53.1% | 54.3% | — | — | 1.84 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 64.3% | 61.6% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 35.7% | 38.4% | — | — | 2.61 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK (DNB) | 81.7% | 80.4% | 55.2% | 1.46× | 1.25 |
| Aris (DNB) | 18.3% | 19.7% | 44.8% | 0.44× | 5.09 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK to score first | 62.6% | 64.3% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Aris to score first | 25.9% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| No goal scored | 11.6% | 10.0% | — | — | 10.05 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 57.9% | 54.8% | 51.5% | 1.06× | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 42.1% | 45.2% | 48.5% | 0.93× | 2.21 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 45.7% | 44.2% | 38.6% | 1.15× | 2.26 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 29.2% | 33.6% | 35.5% | 0.95× | 2.97 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 0.94× | 8.11 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 12.3% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 0.94× | 8.11 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 92.6% | 89.1% | 88.9% | 1.00× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 7.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 0.98× | 9.18 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 78.7% | 75.2% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 21.3% | 24.8% | — | — | 4.04 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 68.7% | 63.0% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 18.7% | 15.7% | — | — | 6.36 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.0% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.5% | 4.9% | — | — | 20.44 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 87.5% | 85.5% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.5% | 14.5% | — | — | 6.92 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 52.5% | 53.4% | — | — | 1.87 |
| A goal in each half | 47.5% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.14 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 48.9% | 47.4% | 50.7% | 0.94× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 30.2% | 30.7% | 26.9% | 1.14× | 3.26 |
| 4-6 goals | 19.9% | 20.3% | 21.8% | 0.93× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.76× | 55.34 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris to score exactly 0 | 50.4% | 47.3% | 32.2% | 1.47× | 2.12 |
| Aris to score exactly 1 | 34.5% | 33.9% | 35.5% | 0.95× | 2.95 |
| Aris to score exactly 2 | 11.8% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 0.57× | 7.81 |
| Aris to score 3+ | 3.2% | 4.5% | 10.3% | 0.44× | 22.25 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK to score exactly 1 | 31.6% | 32.6% | 33.7% | 0.97× | 3.06 |
| PAOK to score exactly 2 | 26.2% | 26.5% | 20.7% | 1.28× | 3.77 |
| PAOK to score 3+ | 23.1% | 23.3% | 18.3% | 1.27× | 4.30 |
| PAOK to score exactly 0 | 19.1% | 18.9% | 27.7% | 0.68× | 5.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 45.6% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| PAOK leading at HT | 41.8% | 43.2% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Aris leading at HT | 12.6% | 11.8% | — | — | 8.50 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK -1: 2 | 41.2% | 42.7% | — | — | 2.34 |
| PAOK -1: 1 | 33.9% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.33 |
| PAOK -1: X | 24.9% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:1) | 41.2% | 42.7% | 58.5% | 0.73× | 2.34 |
| PAOK (0:1) | 33.9% | 30.0% | 21.2% | 1.42× | 3.34 |
| Draw (0:1) | 24.9% | 24.3% | 20.5% | 1.18× | 4.11 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:2) | 66.1% | 72.2% | 78.9% | 0.92× | 1.39 |
| Draw (0:2) | 18.9% | 15.3% | 10.7% | 1.44× | 6.53 |
| PAOK (0:2) | 15.0% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 1.03× | 9.07 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:3) | 85.0% | 90.7% | 89.3% | 1.02× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 9.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 0.73× | 17.19 |
| PAOK (0:3) | 5.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.01× | 17.27 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris (0:4) | 94.6% | 94.7% | 97.1% | 0.98× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 3.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.65× | 83.03 |
| PAOK (0:4) | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.97× | 83.28 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK (1:0) | 86.8% | 86.4% | 66.3% | 1.30× | 1.16 |
| Draw (1:0) | 9.2% | 6.9% | 20.1% | 0.34× | 14.46 |
| Aris (1:0) | 4.0% | 3.2% | 13.8% | 0.23× | 31.43 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK (2:0) | 96.0% | 96.9% | 86.2% | 1.12× | 1.03 |
| Draw (2:0) | 3.2% | 2.3% | 8.2% | 0.28× | 44.20 |
| Aris (2:0) | 0.8% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 0.39× | 44.36 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 43.6% | 46.5% | — | — | 2.15 |
| Halves equal | 30.4% | 29.4% | — | — | 3.40 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.0% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK clean sheet | 50.4% | 53.1% | 32.2% | 1.65× | 1.88 |
| PAOK to concede | 49.6% | 46.9% | 67.8% | 0.69× | 2.13 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK clean sheet in 1st half | 76.0% | 77.1% | — | — | 1.30 |
| PAOK to concede in 1st half | 24.0% | 22.9% | — | — | 4.36 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK under 6.5 corners | 77.5% | 76.1% | — | — | 1.31 |
| PAOK over 2.5 corners | 74.5% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| PAOK under 5.5 corners | 67.5% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| PAOK over 3.5 corners | 59.5% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| PAOK under 4.5 corners | 55.0% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| PAOK over 4.5 corners | 45.0% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| PAOK under 3.5 corners | 40.5% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
| PAOK over 5.5 corners | 32.5% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
| PAOK under 2.5 corners | 25.5% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| PAOK over 6.5 corners | 22.5% | 23.9% | — | — | 4.19 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK under 3.5 goals | 91.3% | 92.2% | 94.3% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| PAOK over 0.5 goals | 80.9% | 82.1% | 72.3% | 1.14× | 1.22 |
| PAOK under 2.5 goals | 76.9% | 77.7% | 81.7% | 0.95× | 1.29 |
| PAOK under 1.5 goals | 50.7% | 53.3% | 61.2% | 0.87× | 1.88 |
| PAOK over 1.5 goals | 49.3% | 46.7% | 38.8% | 1.20× | 2.14 |
| PAOK over 2.5 goals | 23.1% | 22.3% | 18.3% | 1.22× | 4.48 |
| PAOK under 0.5 goals | 19.1% | 17.9% | 27.7% | 0.64× | 5.60 |
| PAOK over 3.5 goals | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 1.35× | 12.88 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK under 1.5 in 1st half | 84.0% | 84.8% | — | — | 1.18 |
| PAOK under 0.5 in 1st half | 49.1% | 51.0% | — | — | 1.96 |
| PAOK over 0.5 in 1st half | 50.9% | 49.0% | — | — | 2.04 |
| PAOK over 1.5 in 1st half | 16.0% | 15.2% | — | — | 6.56 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 67.9% | 63.8% | 42.7% | 1.50× | 1.57 |
| Aris (home no bet) | 32.1% | 36.2% | 57.3% | 0.63× | 2.76 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK even goals | 51.8% | 50.6% | 52.8% | 0.96× | 1.98 |
| PAOK odd goals | 48.2% | 49.4% | 47.2% | 1.05× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 37.6% | 38.5% | — | — | 2.60 |
| HT 1-0 | 26.2% | 28.6% | — | — | 3.50 |
| HT 0-1 | 9.9% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.06 |
| HT 2-0 | 9.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.07 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.6% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.10 |
| Any other HT score | 3.8% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.64 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.6% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.73 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.4% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.83 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.0% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.86 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.4% | 2.2% | — | — | 44.91 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK at HT / PAOK at FT | 36.5% | 41.0% | — | — | 2.44 |
| Draw at HT / PAOK at FT | 20.3% | 22.1% | — | — | 4.53 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 19.5% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.94 |
| Aris at HT / Aris at FT | 6.5% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.60 |
| Draw at HT / Aris at FT | 5.9% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.62 |
| PAOK at HT / Draw at FT | 4.5% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.10 |
| Aris at HT / Draw at FT | 4.0% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.13 |
| Aris at HT / PAOK at FT | 2.1% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.20 |
| PAOK at HT / Aris at FT | 0.9% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.25 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK to score last | 63.0% | 62.4% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Aris to score last | 25.5% | 27.1% | — | — | 3.69 |
| No goal scored | 11.6% | 9.3% | — | — | 10.71 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 88.4% | 90.7% | — | — | 1.10 |
| PAOK to lead by 1 at any time | 69.6% | 69.6% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 45.2% | 43.9% | — | — | 2.28 |
| PAOK to lead by 2 at any time | 38.6% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.88 |
| Aris to lead by 1 at any time | 28.2% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 18.0% | 14.9% | — | — | 6.70 |
| PAOK to lead by 3 at any time | 16.8% | 14.9% | — | — | 6.71 |
| Aris to lead by 2 at any time | 6.6% | 6.5% | — | — | 15.37 |
| Aris to lead by 3 at any time | 1.2% | 1.5% | — | — | 64.79 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris most corners | 52.0% | 52.9% | — | — | 1.89 |
| PAOK most corners | 38.1% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Corners level | 9.8% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.88 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 85.2% | 87.4% | 88.5% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.6% | 78.6% | 80.1% | 0.98× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 68.8% | 69.0% | 72.3% | 0.95× | 1.45 |
| 1-3 goals | 67.5% | 69.0% | 69.2% | 1.00× | 1.45 |
| 2-5 goals | 66.6% | 69.0% | 70.0% | 0.99× | 1.45 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.9% | 63.5% | 61.6% | 1.03× | 1.58 |
| 2-3 goals | 48.9% | 48.7% | 50.7% | 0.96× | 2.06 |
| 1-2 goals | 46.9% | 48.7% | 43.3% | 1.12× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 40.5% | 43.6% | 47.6% | 0.92× | 2.29 |
| 3-5 goals | 38.3% | 39.2% | 45.4% | 0.86× | 2.55 |
| 3-4 goals | 32.6% | 35.4% | 37.0% | 0.96× | 2.83 |
| 4-6 goals | 19.9% | 18.6% | 21.8% | 0.86× | 5.37 |
| 4-5 goals | 17.7% | 18.6% | 19.5% | 0.95× | 5.37 |
| 5-6 goals | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 0.80× | 11.44 |
| 7+ goals | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 2.46× | 39.54 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK never behind | 60.2% | 67.3% | — | — | 1.49 |
| Aris never behind | 18.8% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.35 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 45.6% | 50.8% | 53.8% | 0.94× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 54.4% | 49.2% | 46.2% | 1.07× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 57.6% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 42.4% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 54.7% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 45.3% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 96.8% | 95.5% | 96.7% | 0.99× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91.1% | 92.3% | 88.3% | 1.05× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 88.4% | 87.7% | 91.6% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79.1% | 77.4% | 77.4% | 1.00× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | 66.3% | 73.1% | 0.91× | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 58.8% | 51.5% | 1.14× | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 41.2% | 48.5% | 0.85× | 2.43 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 33.7% | 26.9% | 1.25× | 2.97 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 1.00× | 4.42 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 11.6% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 1.46× | 8.11 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 8.9% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 0.66× | 12.94 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.37× | 22.20 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.0% | 97.3% | 99.0% | 0.98× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 96.6% | 97.2% | 96.4% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 89.9% | 86.8% | 86.9% | 1.00× | 1.15 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 73.7% | 72.6% | 69.5% | 1.04× | 1.38 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 57.9% | 55.5% | 64.3% | 0.86× | 1.80 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 42.1% | 44.5% | 35.7% | 1.25× | 2.25 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 26.3% | 27.4% | 30.5% | 0.90× | 3.65 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 10.1% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 1.01× | 7.55 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 0.77× | 36.34 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 2.61× | 36.42 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 92.2% | 92.8% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 73.8% | 71.1% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 62.4% | 63.7% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 37.6% | 36.3% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 26.2% | 28.9% | — | — | 3.46 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 7.8% | 7.2% | — | — | 13.96 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 84.4% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 73.5% | 78.0% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 60.1% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 39.9% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 26.5% | 22.0% | — | — | 4.54 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 15.6% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris not to score in both halves | 91.9% | 90.2% | — | — | 1.11 |
| PAOK not to score in both halves | 68.9% | 70.1% | — | — | 1.43 |
| PAOK to score in both halves | 31.1% | 29.9% | — | — | 3.35 |
| Aris to score in both halves | 8.1% | 9.8% | — | — | 10.17 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 42.1% | 46.6% | 48.5% | 0.96× | 2.15 |
| Only PAOK scores | 38.8% | 39.9% | 24.0% | 1.66× | 2.51 |
| Neither team scores | 11.6% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 1.30× | 9.14 |
| Only Aris scores | 7.5% | 7.2% | 19.5% | 0.37× | 13.94 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 28.3% | 25.0% | 24.8% | 1.00× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 20.6% | 22.6% | 26.1% | 0.87× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 18.6% | 17.5% | 18.7% | 0.93× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 1.09× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 11.6% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 1.43× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 0.88× | 13.14 |
| 6 or more goals | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.35× | 22.62 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 39.9% | 40.3% | — | — | 2.48 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.6% | 33.9% | — | — | 2.95 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 26.5% | 29.6% | — | — | 3.38 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris not to win both halves | 98.0% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| PAOK not to win both halves | 80.0% | 75.6% | — | — | 1.32 |
| PAOK to win both halves | 20.0% | 24.4% | — | — | 4.09 |
| Aris to win both halves | 2.0% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.91 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris to win neither half | 74.5% | 73.1% | — | — | 1.37 |
| PAOK to win either half | 68.7% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| PAOK to win neither half | 31.3% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Aris to win either half | 25.5% | 26.9% | — | — | 3.72 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris not to win to nil | 92.5% | 92.0% | 80.5% | 1.14× | 1.09 |
| PAOK not to win to nil | 61.2% | 66.7% | 76.0% | 0.88× | 1.50 |
| PAOK to win to nil | 38.8% | 33.3% | 24.0% | 1.38× | 3.01 |
| Aris to win to nil | 7.5% | 8.0% | 19.5% | 0.41× | 12.56 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.8% | 25.1% | 1.11× | 3.59 |
| PAOK by 1 | 24.9% | 24.1% | 20.5% | 1.18× | 4.14 |
| PAOK by 2 | 18.9% | 16.9% | 10.7% | 1.59× | 5.90 |
| PAOK by 3+ | 15.0% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 1.11× | 8.46 |
| Aris by 1 | 9.2% | 7.2% | 20.1% | 0.36× | 13.80 |
| Aris by 2 | 3.2% | 2.7% | 8.2% | 0.33× | 36.97 |
| Aris by 3+ | 0.8% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 0.47× | 37.04 |