Paris FC v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.36
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.91
Goals − xG
+0.06 – +0.15
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris FC win
44.1%
Draw
22.3%
Strasbourg win
33.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWLWLWDW last 10
scored 21
from 21.2 xG
conceded 9
from 12.0 xG
Strasbourg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWLWLDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 16.6 xG
conceded 21
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.85–1.59 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris FC 1.94 xGStrasbourg 2.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris FC attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 1' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Paris FC |
Adama Camara | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moses Simon |
| 26' |
 Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Goal | Diego Moreira |
| 28' |
Paris FC |
Hamari Traore | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 33' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
| 34' |
Paris FC |
Hamari Traore | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 40' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 46' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
| 47' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 51' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 57' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adama Camara |
| 59' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 61' |
Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 67' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Mbow |
| 67' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 75' |
Strasbourg |
Mathis Amougou | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 76' |
Paris FC |
Thibault De Smet | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 77' |
Strasbourg |
Guela Doué | 0.88 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Emanuel Emegha |
| 80' |
Paris FC |
Nouha Dicko | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ilan Kebbal |
| 86' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.57 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Ismaël Doukouré |
| 86' |
Strasbourg |
Ismaël Doukouré | 0.34 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 93' |
Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nouha Dicko |
| 93' |
Paris FC |
Nouha Dicko | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| Ben Chilwell DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Valentín Barco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.11 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Moreira MR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kendry Páez FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Martial Godo ML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Emanuel Emegha Sub | 26 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| Guela Doué Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Felix Lemarechal Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Mathis Amougou Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilan Kebbal MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 1.26 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Maxime Lopez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.27 |
| Samir Chergui DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Obed Nkambadio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.88 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.18 |
| Adama Camara MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.81 |
| Moses Simon ML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.91 |
| Hamari Traore DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Willem Geubbels FW | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Alimami Gory Sub | 40 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Thibault De Smet Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Nouha Dicko Sub | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.30 | 0.72 |
| Mathieu Cafaro Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |