Paris Saint Germain v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 3
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.62 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
76.8%
Draw
14.3%
Brest win
8.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLLDDD last 10
scored 13
from 15.9 xG
conceded 23
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.79–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.00–0.78 | 3-0 10% | 73% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xGBrest 0.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Hernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Beraldo |
| 14' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Dro Fernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Beraldo |
| 20' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 20' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Dro Fernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beraldo |
| 24' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
 Brest |
Raphaël Le Guen | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Dro Fernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 45' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabián |
| 50' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 52' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 56' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 67' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 71' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 75' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 81' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 81' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lucas Hernández |
| 81' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 83' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dro Fernández |
| 88' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Neves |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dro Fernández MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| Senny Mayulu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| Beraldo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.56 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| Renato Marin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Fabián MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| Lee Kang-In FWR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Désiré Doué Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| João Neves Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Raphaël Le Guen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Magnetti MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daouda Guindo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romain Del Castillo FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Tousart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kamory Doumbia FWL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |