Rayo Vallecano v Racing Santander — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
40.8%
Draw
25.1%
Racing Santander win
34.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.49–1.34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.42–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 58% | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.38–1.33 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to win | 38.3% | 34.6% | 47.0% | 0.74× | 2.89 |
| Racing Santander to win | 36.9% | 34.5% | 28.2% | 1.23× | 2.90 |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.1% | 25.0% | 1.00× | 3.98 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano & both teams score | 19.8% | 18.7% | 21.7% | 0.86× | 5.34 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.3% | 18.7% | 20.1% | 0.93× | 5.34 |
| Racing Santander & both teams score | 19.2% | 18.7% | 13.6% | 1.37× | 5.34 |
| Rayo Vallecano & not both score | 18.4% | 18.7% | 25.4% | 0.74× | 5.34 |
| Racing Santander & not both score | 17.7% | 18.7% | 14.6% | 1.28× | 5.35 |
| Draw & not both score | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.49× | 13.29 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano & over 1.5 | 30.1% | 32.1% | 34.2% | 0.94× | 3.12 |
| Racing Santander & over 1.5 | 28.9% | 27.3% | 21.1% | 1.30× | 3.66 |
| Rayo Vallecano & under 3.5 | 25.5% | 27.3% | 33.2% | 0.82× | 3.66 |
| Racing Santander & under 3.5 | 24.7% | 21.8% | 22.0% | 0.99× | 4.59 |
| Rayo Vallecano & over 2.5 | 24.2% | 21.8% | 28.0% | 0.78× | 4.60 |
| Racing Santander & over 2.5 | 23.2% | 21.8% | 16.5% | 1.32× | 4.60 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.3% | 18.4% | 20.1% | 0.92× | 5.43 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 17.2% | 18.4% | 19.8% | 0.93× | 5.43 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 17.2% | 18.4% | 19.8% | 0.93× | 5.43 |
| Rayo Vallecano & under 2.5 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 19.1% | 0.68× | 7.72 |
| Racing Santander & under 2.5 | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 1.10× | 7.72 |
| Rayo Vallecano & over 3.5 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 0.93× | 7.72 |
| Racing Santander & over 3.5 | 12.2% | 13.0% | 6.3% | 2.05× | 7.72 |
| Rayo Vallecano & under 1.5 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 0.57× | 13.52 |
| Racing Santander & under 1.5 | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 1.03× | 13.52 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.39× | 13.52 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.39× | 13.52 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.46× | 13.53 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano (1UP) | 55.8% | 56.6% | 63.3% | 0.90× | 1.77 |
| Racing Santander (1UP) | 54.6% | 52.1% | 47.1% | 1.11× | 1.92 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano (2UP) | 38.3% | 36.8% | 48.7% | 0.76× | 2.72 |
| Racing Santander (2UP) | 36.9% | 36.7% | 29.8% | 1.23× | 2.73 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to win 2nd half | 39.5% | 36.7% | 39.3% | 0.94× | 2.72 |
| 2nd half drawn | 38.2% | 36.7% | 33.1% | 1.11× | 2.73 |
| Racing Santander to win 2nd half | 22.3% | 22.6% | 27.8% | 0.81× | 4.43 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (+2.5) | 93.1% | 93.5% | 90.2% | 1.04× | 1.07 |
| Racing Santander (+1.5) | 81.9% | 85.2% | 79.2% | 1.08× | 1.17 |
| Rayo Vallecano (+0.5) | 63.1% | 63.6% | 71.8% | 0.89× | 1.57 |
| Racing Santander (+0.5) | 61.7% | 63.5% | 53.0% | 1.20× | 1.57 |
| Rayo Vallecano (-0.5) | 38.3% | 36.5% | 47.0% | 0.78× | 2.74 |
| Racing Santander (-0.5) | 36.9% | 36.4% | 28.2% | 1.29× | 2.75 |
| Rayo Vallecano (-1.5) | 18.1% | 14.8% | 20.8% | 0.71× | 6.74 |
| Rayo Vallecano (-2.5) | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 0.66× | 15.28 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander to concede | 76.7% | 75.3% | 80.4% | 0.94× | 1.33 |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 23.3% | 24.7% | 19.6% | 1.26× | 4.05 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander clean sheet in 1st half | 53.3% | 50.1% | 51.9% | 0.97× | 2.00 |
| Racing Santander to concede in 1st half | 46.7% | 49.9% | 48.1% | 1.04× | 2.00 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander over 2.5 corners | 85.5% | 84.9% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Racing Santander over 3.5 corners | 73.1% | 72.3% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Racing Santander under 6.5 corners | 67.9% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Racing Santander over 4.5 corners | 58.8% | 56.9% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Racing Santander under 5.5 corners | 55.4% | 56.9% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Racing Santander over 5.5 corners | 44.6% | 43.1% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Racing Santander under 4.5 corners | 41.2% | 43.1% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Racing Santander over 6.5 corners | 32.1% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Racing Santander under 3.5 corners | 26.9% | 27.7% | — | — | 3.62 |
| Racing Santander under 2.5 corners | 14.5% | 15.1% | — | — | 6.62 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander under 3.5 goals | 94.3% | 94.5% | 97.3% | 0.97× | 1.06 |
| Racing Santander under 2.5 goals | 82.7% | 83.4% | 90.3% | 0.92× | 1.20 |
| Racing Santander over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | 76.1% | 69.7% | 1.09× | 1.32 |
| Racing Santander under 1.5 goals | 58.3% | 60.6% | 68.3% | 0.89× | 1.65 |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 39.4% | 31.7% | 1.24× | 2.54 |
| Racing Santander under 0.5 goals | 24.0% | 23.9% | 30.3% | 0.79× | 4.18 |
| Racing Santander over 2.5 goals | 17.3% | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.70× | 6.03 |
| Racing Santander over 3.5 goals | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.09× | 18.06 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander under 1.5 in 1st half | 77.8% | 77.3% | 93.6% | 0.83× | 1.29 |
| Racing Santander over 0.5 in 1st half | 58.7% | 62.3% | 36.5% | 1.71× | 1.61 |
| Racing Santander under 0.5 in 1st half | 41.3% | 37.7% | 63.5% | 0.59× | 2.65 |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 in 1st half | 22.2% | 22.7% | 6.4% | 3.53× | 4.40 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano (away no bet) | 60.6% | 59.6% | 65.3% | 0.91× | 1.68 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 39.4% | 40.4% | 34.7% | 1.16× | 2.48 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander even goals | 52.9% | 52.5% | 54.0% | 0.97× | 1.90 |
| Racing Santander odd goals | 47.1% | 47.5% | 46.0% | 1.03× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 82.3% | 83.3% | 87.1% | 0.96× | 1.20 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 17.7% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 1.30× | 5.97 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 66.6% | 67.9% | 62.4% | 1.09× | 1.47 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 32.1% | 37.6% | 0.85× | 3.12 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 58.3% | 54.9% | 52.3% | 1.05× | 1.82 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score 2+ in a row | 33.4% | 27.9% | 34.2% | 0.81× | 3.59 |
| Racing Santander to score 2+ in a row | 32.3% | 27.8% | 23.6% | 1.18× | 3.59 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 20.9% | 19.0% | 18.8% | 1.01× | 5.25 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score 3+ in a row | 10.9% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 0.88× | 8.71 |
| Racing Santander to score 3+ in a row | 10.3% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 1.82× | 8.73 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano corners (+3.5) | 86.8% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Rayo Vallecano corners (+2.5) | 81.1% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Rayo Vallecano corners (+1.5) | 74.1% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Racing Santander corners (+3.5) | 70.4% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Racing Santander corners (+2.5) | 62.0% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Racing Santander corners (+1.5) | 52.8% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Rayo Vallecano corners (-1.5) | 47.2% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Rayo Vallecano corners (-2.5) | 38.0% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Rayo Vallecano corners (-3.5) | 29.6% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Racing Santander corners (-1.5) | 25.9% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Racing Santander corners (-2.5) | 18.9% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.00 |
| Racing Santander corners (-3.5) | 13.2% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 53.1% | 46.3% | — | — | 2.16 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.3% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| 0-8 corners | 20.6% | 26.3% | — | — | 3.81 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 86.2% | 82.8% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 79.4% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 71.2% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 62.3% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 56.0% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 53.1% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 46.9% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 44.0% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 37.7% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 28.8% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 20.6% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.28 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 13.8% | 17.2% | — | — | 5.80 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 0.85× | 7.88 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.76× | 13.45 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 0.58× | 13.45 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 0.88× | 13.45 |
| 0-1 | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 1.03× | 13.45 |
| 2-0 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.18× | 13.46 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.68× | 13.46 |
| 0-0 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.47× | 13.46 |
| 0-2 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 1.59× | 13.46 |
| 1-3 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.90× | 58.58 |
| 3-1 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 0.47× | 58.58 |
| 2-3 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.84× | 58.62 |
| 3-0 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.61 |
| 3-2 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.54× | 58.61 |
| Any other score | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.61× | 58.61 |
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.84× | 58.62 |
| 1-4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.38× | 58.66 |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.69× | 58.66 |
| 4-1 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.84× | 58.66 |
| 2-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.37× | 58.67 |
| 3-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.50× | 58.69 |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.04× | 58.67 |
| 4-2 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.23× | 58.67 |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.25× | 58.69 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.49× | 58.70 |
| 0-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.93× | 58.67 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB) | 61.6% | 66.1% | 37.7% | 1.75× | 1.51 |
| Rayo Vallecano leading at HT (DNB) | 38.4% | 33.9% | 62.3% | 0.54× | 2.95 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano or Racing Santander (12) | 75.1% | 74.9% | 75.0% | 1.00× | 1.34 |
| Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X) | 63.1% | 65.5% | 71.8% | 0.91× | 1.53 |
| Racing Santander or draw (X2) | 61.7% | 65.4% | 53.0% | 1.23× | 1.53 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander or draw at HT | 75.4% | 80.0% | 64.5% | 1.24× | 1.25 |
| Rayo Vallecano or Racing Santander at HT | 63.9% | 62.1% | 56.8% | 1.09× | 1.61 |
| Rayo Vallecano or draw at HT | 60.6% | 62.0% | 78.5% | 0.79× | 1.61 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano or draw (1UP) | 63.1% | 71.6% | 78.2% | 0.92× | 1.40 |
| Racing Santander or draw (1UP) | 61.7% | 71.5% | 60.0% | 1.19× | 1.40 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano or draw in 2nd half | 77.7% | 77.4% | 72.2% | 1.07× | 1.29 |
| Rayo Vallecano or Racing Santander in 2nd half | 61.8% | 63.3% | 66.9% | 0.95× | 1.58 |
| Racing Santander or draw in 2nd half | 60.5% | 63.3% | 60.7% | 1.04× | 1.58 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 60.5% | 61.9% | 62.4% | 0.99× | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 39.5% | 38.1% | 37.6% | 1.01× | 2.63 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano (DNB) | 50.9% | 50.9% | 62.5% | 0.81× | 1.96 |
| Racing Santander (DNB) | 49.1% | 49.1% | 37.5% | 1.31× | 2.04 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to score first | 47.7% | 45.1% | 55.6% | 0.81× | 2.22 |
| Racing Santander to score first | 46.7% | 45.1% | 39.5% | 1.14× | 2.22 |
| No goal scored | 5.6% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 1.64× | 12.05 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 56.0% | 55.2% | 1.01× | 1.79 |
| Not both teams to score | 41.8% | 44.0% | 44.8% | 0.98× | 2.27 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 46.6% | 43.5% | 40.4% | 1.08× | 2.30 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 33.4% | 34.0% | 35.6% | 0.96× | 2.94 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.6% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 0.80× | 8.40 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 0.93× | 11.52 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 82.2% | 82.3% | 86.5% | 0.95× | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 17.8% | 17.7% | 13.5% | 1.31× | 5.65 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 76.5% | 75.6% | 71.5% | 1.06× | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 23.5% | 24.4% | 28.5% | 0.86× | 4.10 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 55.5% | 60.1% | 60.4% | 1.00× | 1.67 |
| Both score 1st half only | 21.0% | 20.8% | 11.2% | 1.85× | 4.80 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 17.1% | 15.2% | 23.1% | 0.66× | 6.60 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 1.17× | 15.44 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 72.6% | 79.9% | 83.3% | 0.96× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 27.4% | 20.1% | 16.7% | 1.21× | 4.97 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 58.1% | 57.3% | 54.7% | 1.05× | 1.74 |
| A half without a goal | 41.9% | 42.7% | 45.3% | 0.94× | 2.34 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 45.6% | 46.3% | 50.0% | 0.93× | 2.16 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.8% | 26.6% | 23.2% | 1.15× | 3.76 |
| 0-1 goals | 21.8% | 23.0% | 24.9% | 0.92× | 4.35 |
| 7+ goals | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.87× | 53.57 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander to score exactly 1 | 34.3% | 34.0% | 38.1% | 0.89× | 2.94 |
| Racing Santander to score exactly 2 | 24.4% | 22.1% | 22.1% | 1.00× | 4.53 |
| Racing Santander to score exactly 0 | 24.0% | 22.1% | 30.3% | 0.73× | 4.53 |
| Racing Santander to score 3+ | 17.3% | 19.0% | 9.7% | 1.95× | 5.28 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 1 | 33.9% | 33.5% | 38.4% | 0.87× | 2.99 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 2 | 24.7% | 24.2% | 22.7% | 1.07× | 4.13 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 0 | 23.3% | 24.2% | 19.6% | 1.24× | 4.14 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score 3+ | 18.0% | 18.4% | 19.6% | 0.94× | 5.43 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander leading at HT | 39.4% | 38.0% | 21.5% | 1.77× | 2.63 |
| Draw at HT | 36.1% | 37.9% | 43.2% | 0.88× | 2.64 |
| Rayo Vallecano leading at HT | 24.6% | 20.0% | 35.5% | 0.56× | 4.99 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano -1: 2 | 61.7% | 64.2% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Rayo Vallecano -1: X | 20.1% | 23.8% | — | — | 4.20 |
| Rayo Vallecano -1: 1 | 18.1% | 16.2% | — | — | 6.18 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:1) | 61.7% | 63.7% | 53.0% | 1.20× | 1.57 |
| Draw (0:1) | 20.1% | 23.3% | 26.3% | 0.89× | 4.28 |
| Rayo Vallecano (0:1) | 18.1% | 15.4% | 20.8% | 0.74× | 6.51 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:2) | 81.9% | 84.8% | 79.2% | 1.07× | 1.18 |
| Draw (0:2) | 11.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 0.89× | 10.08 |
| Rayo Vallecano (0:2) | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 0.64× | 15.87 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:3) | 93.1% | 93.4% | 90.2% | 1.04× | 1.07 |
| Draw (0:3) | 4.7% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 0.27× | 53.93 |
| Rayo Vallecano (0:3) | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 0.60× | 55.08 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:4) | 97.9% | 98.4% | 97.0% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 0.45× | 92.89 |
| Rayo Vallecano (0:4) | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.41× | 93.71 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano (1:0) | 63.1% | 65.5% | 71.8% | 0.91× | 1.53 |
| Draw (1:0) | 19.7% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 0.97× | 5.84 |
| Racing Santander (1:0) | 17.2% | 17.0% | 10.6% | 1.61× | 5.87 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano (2:0) | 82.8% | 83.8% | 89.4% | 0.94× | 1.19 |
| Draw (2:0) | 10.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 1.72× | 8.39 |
| Racing Santander (2:0) | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.57× | 16.80 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half highest scoring | 40.8% | 38.3% | 26.5% | 1.45× | 2.61 |
| 2nd half highest scoring | 34.4% | 37.1% | 51.1% | 0.72× | 2.70 |
| Halves equal | 24.8% | 24.9% | 22.5% | 1.11× | 4.02 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to concede | 76.0% | 75.7% | 69.7% | 1.09× | 1.32 |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 24.0% | 24.3% | 30.3% | 0.80× | 4.11 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to concede in 1st half | 58.7% | 62.3% | 36.5% | 1.71× | 1.61 |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet in 1st half | 41.3% | 37.7% | 63.5% | 0.59× | 2.65 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 corners | 92.1% | 88.3% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 corners | 83.8% | 81.3% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 4.5 corners | 72.9% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 5.5 corners | 60.6% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 6.5 corners | 51.8% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 6.5 corners | 48.2% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 5.5 corners | 39.4% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 4.5 corners | 27.1% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 corners | 16.2% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.36 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 corners | 7.9% | 11.7% | — | — | 8.53 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 goals | 94.0% | 93.4% | 92.7% | 1.01× | 1.07 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 goals | 82.0% | 81.8% | 80.4% | 1.02× | 1.22 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | 76.8% | 80.4% | 0.95× | 1.30 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 goals | 57.3% | 57.7% | 57.8% | 1.00× | 1.73 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 42.3% | 42.2% | 1.00× | 2.37 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 goals | 23.3% | 23.2% | 19.6% | 1.19× | 4.30 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 goals | 18.0% | 18.2% | 19.6% | 0.93× | 5.49 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 goals | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 0.91× | 15.06 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 in 1st half | 86.8% | 90.1% | 86.1% | 1.05× | 1.11 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 in 1st half | 46.7% | 50.1% | 48.1% | 1.04× | 2.00 |
| Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 in 1st half | 53.3% | 49.9% | 51.9% | 0.96× | 2.00 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 in 1st half | 13.2% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 0.71× | 10.08 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (home no bet) | 59.7% | 57.6% | 53.0% | 1.09× | 1.74 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 40.3% | 42.4% | 47.0% | 0.90× | 2.36 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano even goals | 52.7% | 52.2% | 47.6% | 1.10× | 1.92 |
| Rayo Vallecano odd goals | 47.3% | 47.8% | 52.4% | 0.91× | 2.09 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 22.0% | 23.8% | 32.1% | 0.74× | 4.20 |
| HT 0-1 | 19.5% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 1.15× | 5.31 |
| HT 1-0 | 13.9% | 10.9% | 22.7% | 0.48× | 9.18 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 1.06× | 9.20 |
| HT 0-2 | 8.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 2.39× | 14.41 |
| Any other HT score | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.53× | 14.41 |
| HT 1-2 | 5.4% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 4.56× | 14.46 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.4% | 2.2% | 6.3% | 0.35× | 45.76 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 0.69× | 45.80 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.91× | 45.97 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander at HT / Racing Santander at FT | 27.8% | 26.4% | 12.8% | 2.07× | 3.78 |
| Rayo Vallecano at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT | 20.2% | 22.8% | 26.5% | 0.86× | 4.39 |
| Draw at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT | 14.3% | 12.8% | 17.9% | 0.72× | 7.80 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 13.8% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 0.92× | 7.80 |
| Draw at HT / Racing Santander at FT | 8.0% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 0.52× | 16.52 |
| Racing Santander at HT / Draw at FT | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 0.98× | 16.53 |
| Racing Santander at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.20× | 30.07 |
| Rayo Vallecano at HT / Draw at FT | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 0.64× | 30.08 |
| Rayo Vallecano at HT / Racing Santander at FT | 1.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 0.82× | 30.18 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to score last | 47.7% | 46.4% | 55.7% | 0.83× | 2.15 |
| Racing Santander to score last | 46.7% | 46.4% | 39.4% | 1.18× | 2.16 |
| No goal scored | 5.6% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 1.64× | 12.05 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 94.4% | 91.8% | 94.9% | 0.97× | 1.09 |
| Rayo Vallecano to lead by 1 at any time | 55.8% | 54.1% | 63.3% | 0.86× | 1.85 |
| Racing Santander to lead by 1 at any time | 54.6% | 50.1% | 47.1% | 1.06× | 2.00 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 48.2% | 43.5% | 41.5% | 1.05× | 2.30 |
| Rayo Vallecano to lead by 2 at any time | 24.8% | 19.3% | 26.5% | 0.73× | 5.18 |
| Racing Santander to lead by 2 at any time | 23.7% | 19.3% | 15.4% | 1.25× | 5.18 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 17.3% | 14.7% | 16.5% | 0.89× | 6.80 |
| Rayo Vallecano to lead by 3 at any time | 8.9% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 0.52× | 15.85 |
| Racing Santander to lead by 3 at any time | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.39× | 15.88 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano most corners | 56.7% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Racing Santander most corners | 34.2% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Corners level | 9.1% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.89 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.2% | 86.6% | 89.3% | 0.97× | 1.15 |
| 1-4 goals | 77.9% | 77.1% | 81.7% | 0.94× | 1.30 |
| 2-6 goals | 75.5% | 77.1% | 73.1% | 1.05× | 1.30 |
| 2-5 goals | 71.0% | 71.9% | 69.4% | 1.04× | 1.39 |
| 1-3 goals | 61.8% | 62.5% | 69.8% | 0.89× | 1.60 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.7% | 62.5% | 61.9% | 1.01× | 1.60 |
| 3-6 goals | 52.2% | 50.8% | 47.6% | 1.07× | 1.97 |
| 3-5 goals | 47.7% | 46.4% | 43.9% | 1.06× | 2.16 |
| 2-3 goals | 45.6% | 46.3% | 50.0% | 0.93× | 2.16 |
| 1-2 goals | 39.4% | 38.1% | 45.5% | 0.84× | 2.62 |
| 3-4 goals | 38.5% | 38.1% | 36.4% | 1.05× | 2.62 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.8% | 26.2% | 23.2% | 1.13× | 3.81 |
| 4-5 goals | 25.4% | 26.1% | 19.6% | 1.33× | 3.83 |
| 5-6 goals | 13.7% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 0.95× | 9.23 |
| 7+ goals | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.91× | 51.44 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano never behind | 39.8% | 45.3% | 52.9% | 0.86× | 2.21 |
| Racing Santander never behind | 38.6% | 45.2% | 36.7% | 1.23× | 2.21 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 50.2% | 50.7% | 46.5% | 1.09× | 1.97 |
| Odd number of goals | 49.8% | 49.3% | 53.5% | 0.92× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 52.4% | 51.8% | 53.4% | 0.97× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 47.6% | 48.2% | 46.6% | 1.03× | 2.08 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 53.2% | 52.9% | 49.7% | 1.06× | 1.89 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 46.8% | 47.1% | 50.3% | 0.94× | 2.12 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94.4% | 92.6% | 94.9% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 92.8% | 92.6% | 94.2% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 83.5% | 81.4% | 86.6% | 0.94× | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | 79.4% | 75.1% | 1.06× | 1.26 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67.4% | 66.9% | 74.7% | 0.90× | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 51.1% | 49.6% | 1.03× | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 48.9% | 50.4% | 0.97× | 2.05 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 33.1% | 25.3% | 1.31× | 3.03 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 20.6% | 24.9% | 0.83× | 4.84 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16.5% | 18.6% | 13.4% | 1.39× | 5.39 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 1.28× | 13.44 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.47× | 13.48 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 97.1% | 98.2% | 97.8% | 1.00× | 1.02 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 92.0% | 94.7% | 93.7% | 1.01× | 1.06 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 80.3% | 83.9% | 84.8% | 0.99× | 1.19 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 71.6% | 75.9% | 66.6% | 1.14× | 1.32 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 58.0% | 55.9% | 66.6% | 0.84× | 1.79 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 42.0% | 44.1% | 33.4% | 1.32× | 2.27 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 28.4% | 24.1% | 33.4% | 0.72× | 4.15 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 19.7% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 1.06× | 6.22 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 0.84× | 18.94 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.81× | 55.23 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 80.6% | 86.5% | 90.0% | 0.96× | 1.16 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 78.0% | 79.0% | 67.9% | 1.16× | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 55.3% | 61.2% | 71.0% | 0.86× | 1.63 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 44.7% | 38.8% | 29.0% | 1.33× | 2.58 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 22.0% | 21.0% | 32.1% | 0.66× | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 19.4% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 1.36× | 7.39 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 84.1% | 82.6% | 79.8% | 1.04× | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 74.5% | 77.5% | 81.7% | 0.95× | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 60.3% | 61.2% | 53.8% | 1.14× | 1.63 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 39.7% | 38.8% | 46.2% | 0.84× | 2.58 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 25.5% | 22.5% | 18.3% | 1.23× | 4.45 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 15.9% | 17.4% | 20.2% | 0.86× | 5.75 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander not to score in both halves | 75.5% | 78.8% | 81.6% | 0.97× | 1.27 |
| Rayo Vallecano not to score in both halves | 73.7% | 74.7% | 73.7% | 1.01× | 1.34 |
| Rayo Vallecano to score in both halves | 26.3% | 25.3% | 26.3% | 0.96× | 3.95 |
| Racing Santander to score in both halves | 24.5% | 21.2% | 18.4% | 1.15× | 4.72 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 58.3% | 56.3% | 55.2% | 1.02× | 1.78 |
| Only Rayo Vallecano scores | 18.4% | 19.7% | 25.4% | 0.78× | 5.07 |
| Only Racing Santander scores | 17.7% | 19.7% | 14.6% | 1.35× | 5.08 |
| Neither team scores | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.48× | 13.35 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 23.3% | 22.5% | 25.6% | 0.88× | 4.44 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.5% | 24.5% | 0.92× | 4.44 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 16.2% | 18.3% | 19.9% | 0.92× | 5.47 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 16.1% | 18.3% | 12.0% | 1.53× | 5.47 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 0.99× | 13.14 |
| 6 or more goals | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 1.31× | 13.18 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 1.50× | 13.21 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 39.7% | 35.5% | 46.2% | 0.77× | 2.82 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 34.8% | 34.2% | 35.6% | 0.96× | 2.92 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 25.5% | 29.8% | 18.3% | 1.63× | 3.36 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander not to win both halves | 91.2% | 94.0% | 94.7% | 0.99× | 1.06 |
| Rayo Vallecano not to win both halves | 90.3% | 94.0% | 88.3% | 1.06× | 1.06 |
| Rayo Vallecano to win both halves | 9.7% | 6.0% | 11.7% | 0.51× | 16.61 |
| Racing Santander to win both halves | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 1.13× | 16.67 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to win either half | 54.4% | 54.5% | 63.0% | 0.87× | 1.84 |
| Racing Santander to win either half | 52.9% | 54.5% | 43.9% | 1.24× | 1.84 |
| Racing Santander to win neither half | 47.1% | 45.5% | 56.1% | 0.81× | 2.20 |
| Rayo Vallecano to win neither half | 45.6% | 45.5% | 37.0% | 1.23× | 2.20 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander not to win to nil | 82.3% | 81.2% | 85.4% | 0.95× | 1.23 |
| Rayo Vallecano not to win to nil | 81.6% | 81.2% | 74.6% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| Rayo Vallecano to win to nil | 18.4% | 18.8% | 25.4% | 0.74× | 5.32 |
| Racing Santander to win to nil | 17.7% | 18.8% | 14.6% | 1.28× | 5.33 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.9% | 25.0% | 1.00× | 4.02 |
| Rayo Vallecano by 1 | 20.1% | 24.8% | 26.3% | 0.95× | 4.03 |
| Racing Santander by 1 | 19.7% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 0.97× | 5.82 |
| Rayo Vallecano by 2 | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 0.99× | 9.13 |
| Racing Santander by 2 | 10.8% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 1.58× | 9.13 |
| Rayo Vallecano by 3+ | 6.9% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 0.63× | 16.16 |
| Racing Santander by 3+ | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.63× | 16.17 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 1.19 xGRacing Santander 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Racing Santander attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Racing Santander |
Sergio Canales | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 12' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Racing Santander |
Manu Hernando | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Canales |
| 15' |
Racing Santander |
Pablo García | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sergio Camello |
| 18' |
Racing Santander |
Sergio Canales | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 25' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 27' |
Racing Santander |
Pablo García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 42' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Unai López |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Unai López |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 48' |
Racing Santander |
Sergio Canales | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 49' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 49' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Unai López |
| 51' |
Racing Santander |
Pablo García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yassir Zabiri |
| 60' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 71' |
Racing Santander |
Yassir Zabiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iñigo Vicente |
| 82' |
Racing Santander |
Jeanuël Belocian | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Iñigo Vicente |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 84' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.72 |
| Unai López MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.08 | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| Pathé Ciss DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Pedro Díaz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Daniel Cárdenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Adrià Pedrosa DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Álvaro García FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jorge De Frutos FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sergio Camello FW | 63 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 0.70 |
| Óscar Valentín MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Gnangoro Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alemão Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Balliu Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Racing Santander
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo García AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Sergio Canales AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Yassir Zabiri FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Iñigo Vicente AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Jorge Salinas DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Álvaro Mantilla DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Julen Agirrezabala GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Manu Hernando DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Facu González DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Prati DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Jeanuël Belocian Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Almeida Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pablo Ramón Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Juan Carlos Arana Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |