RCD Espanyol v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000037 · 2627
FIFA:2000000037
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.3%
- 1-0 10.4%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 0-1 8.3%
- 2-0 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | Under 2.5 | 50.6% |
| BTTS yes | 53.3% | BTTS no | 46.7% |
| RCD Espanyol 1+ | 77.1% | RCD Espanyol 2+ | 43.3% |
| Sevilla 1+ | 69.1% | Sevilla 2+ | 32.8% |
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- RCD Espanyol have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Sevilla have allowed 1.28.
- At home RCD Espanyol average 1.35 xG a match.
- They have had 14 days' rest to Sevilla's 8.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- RCD Espanyol have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
RCD Espanyol have an estimated 44.0% win probability, against 30.2% for Sevilla and 25.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for RCD Espanyol and 1.18 for Sevilla.
Why RCD Espanyol
RCD Espanyol have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Sevilla have allowed 1.28. At home RCD Espanyol average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Sevilla's 8.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.8%.
Why Sevilla can win
Sevilla have created 1.02 xG a match over their last five while RCD Espanyol have allowed 1.35. Away from home Sevilla average 0.73 xG a match.
Key players
Sevilla's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.31), Robbie Ure (0.31), Neal Maupay (0.27).
Availability
No lineup on record for RCD Espanyol, so availability is unknown. 2 of Sevilla's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Sevilla's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
RCD Espanyol: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sevilla: 42% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.13 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
RCD Espanyol are the model's most likely outcome at 44.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.47–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.