Real Betis v Real Oviedo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 16
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+1.13 – -1.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
57.7%
Draw
23.7%
Real Oviedo win
18.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.71–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–0.97 | 2-0 10% | 60% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.87 xGReal Oviedo 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Real Oviedo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 2' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 5' |
 Real Betis |
Héctor Bellerín | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 8' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 11' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nacho Vidal |
| 12' |
Real Betis |
Ricardo Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 15' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Colombatto | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 21' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Fornals |
| 25' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 40' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 43' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 44' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Antony |
| 47' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 49' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 57' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 57' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 66' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javier López |
| 68' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Haissem Hassan |
| 70' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier López |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isco |
| 75' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Roca |
| 81' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 90' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Borbas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli FWL | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 1.19 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 86 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Giovani Lo Celso MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.83 |
| Sofyan Amrabat MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Pablo Fornals MC | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| Antony FWR | 67 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.64 | 0.87 |
| Marc Roca Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Isco Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilyas Chaira MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Alberto Reina FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.69 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dani Calvo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 0.46 |
| Federico Viñas FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| Thiago Fernández ML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Santiago Colombatto MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Nicolás Fonseca MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Haissem Hassan Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Kwasi Sibo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Thiago Borbas Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lucas Ahijado Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |