Real Madrid v Malaga — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 15
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
14 – 6
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.33
Goals − xG
+0.55 – -0.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
74.9%
Draw
16.2%
Malaga win
8.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.28–0.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.21–0.68 | 2-0 14% | 55% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 3.45 xGMalaga 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Malaga attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Malaga |
David Larrubia | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chupe |
| 0' |
 Real Madrid |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 13' |
Malaga |
Rafa Rodríguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Malaga |
Joaquín Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Larrubia |
| 18' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
Malaga |
Alfonso Herrero | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 25' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 29' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 35' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 41' |
Malaga |
Rafa Rodríguez | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Joaquín Muñoz |
| 42' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Rüdiger |
| 44' |
Malaga |
Chupe | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Larrubia |
| 46' |
Malaga |
Rafa Rodríguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Larrubia |
| 49' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 54' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Vinícius Júnior |
| 56' |
Real Madrid |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 58' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 58' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.77 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 63' |
Malaga |
Juan Cruz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chupe |
| 69' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 71' |
Malaga |
David Larrubia | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Izan Merino |
| 75' |
Malaga |
Haitam Abaida | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Malaga |
Chupe | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haitam Abaida |
| 82' |
Malaga |
David Larrubia | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Izan Merino |
| 84' |
Malaga |
Haitam Abaida | 0.17 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Malaga |
Chupe | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Larrubia |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.82 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vinícius Júnior |
| 91' |
Malaga |
David Larrubia | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Dotor |
| 92' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 93' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.49 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Jude Bellingham AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.87 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.48 | 0.83 |
| Vinícius Júnior AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.09 | 1.05 | 1.22 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.64 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.04 |
| Eduardo Camavinga DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| Federico Valverde DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.46 |
| Brahim Diaz AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.87 |
| Yan Diomande Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Bernardo Silva Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arda Güler Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
Malaga
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Larrubia MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Chupe FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Ángel Recio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Dotor FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Izan Merino MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Alfonso Herrero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rafita DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Einar Galilea DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Joaquín Muñoz ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Carlos Puga DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Rafa Rodríguez MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Pablo Martínez Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Juan Cruz Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| José Salinas Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Haitam Abaida Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Ramón Enríquez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |