Samsunspor v Çorum FK — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 September 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627
TUR-Super Lig
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 9.3%
- 1-1 8.4%
- 3-1 7.7%
- 2-0 7.6%
- 3-0 6.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 71.5% | Under 2.5 | 28.5% |
| BTTS yes | 65.5% | BTTS no | 34.5% |
| Samsunspor 1+ | 91.6% | Samsunspor 2+ | 70.8% |
| Çorum FK 1+ | 70.6% | Çorum FK 2+ | 34.6% |
Expected goals 2.48 – 1.22. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Samsunspor carry the stronger rating, 1584 Elo against 1471.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Çorum FK have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Samsunspor have an estimated 63.9% win probability, against 19.7% for the draw and 16.4% for Çorum FK. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.48 for Samsunspor and 1.22 for Çorum FK.
Why Samsunspor
Samsunspor carry the stronger rating, 1584 Elo against 1471.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 19.7%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Çorum FK can win
Nothing in the data singles out Çorum FK.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Samsunspor, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Çorum FK, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Samsunspor: 58% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 20.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Çorum FK: 53% possession, 11.7 shots a match, 20.7 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Samsunspor are the model's most likely outcome at 63.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.3%. Confidence 67/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.48–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.46–1.17 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 64% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.