Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Cerezo Osaka — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

06:00

Cerezo Osaka

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 146h before kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

57.7%

model 55.9%

Draw

21.2%

model 23.8%

Cerezo Osaka win

21.1%

model 20.3%

582121

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.7%
1-1 11.3%
2-0 10.6%
2-1 9.6%
0-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.1%	Under 2.5	51.9%
BTTS yes	48.5%	BTTS no	51.5%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+	81.5%	Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+	50.3%
Cerezo Osaka 1+	59.7%	Cerezo Osaka 2+	23.1%

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

56.8% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cerezo Osaka not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sanfrecce Hiroshima carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1586.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have an estimated 57.7% win probability, against 21.2% for the draw and 21.1% for Cerezo Osaka. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.69 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.91 for Cerezo Osaka.

Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1586. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Cerezo Osaka can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cerezo Osaka, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 54% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 8.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cerezo Osaka: 56% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the model's most likely outcome at 57.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.7%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	562420	1.69–0.91	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	522523	1.54–0.92	1-0 13%	44%	47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win	52.0%	51.4%	42.9%	1.20×	1.94
Draw	25.4%	27.9%	26.3%	1.06×	3.59
Cerezo Osaka to win	22.6%	24.4%	31.0%	0.79×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & not both score	31.6%	29.7%	25.0%	1.19×	3.37
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & both teams score	20.4%	21.9%	18.0%	1.21×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	17.0%	17.9%	19.3%	0.93×	5.58
Cerezo Osaka & not both score	13.0%	13.2%	17.7%	0.75×	7.55
Cerezo Osaka & both teams score	9.6%	8.4%	13.4%	0.62×	11.94
Draw & not both score	8.5%	8.4%	7.1%	1.18×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 1.5	38.6%	34.9%	30.2%	1.16×	2.86
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 3.5	38.1%	34.9%	33.1%	1.06×	2.86
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 2.5	28.5%	26.0%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 2.5	23.5%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	20.4%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.62
Cerezo Osaka & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.0%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.56
Cerezo Osaka & over 1.5	14.6%	12.9%	21.2%	0.61×	7.77
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & under 1.5	13.4%	12.9%	12.8%	1.00×	7.78
Sanfrecce Hiroshima & over 3.5	13.9%	12.9%	10.0%	1.29×	7.77
Cerezo Osaka & under 2.5	11.6%	12.9%	13.3%	0.97×	7.78
Cerezo Osaka & over 2.5	11.0%	12.9%	17.9%	0.72×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.69
Cerezo Osaka & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.0%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.92
Draw & over 3.5	5.0%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.92
Cerezo Osaka & over 3.5	4.3%	4.8%	7.8%	0.62×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1UP)	64.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Cerezo Osaka (1UP)	38.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2UP)	52.0%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Cerezo Osaka (2UP)	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 2nd half	41.2%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	37.0%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Cerezo Osaka to win 2nd half	21.8%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (+2.5)	89.0%	88.5%	93.8%	0.94×	1.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+0.5)	77.4%	78.5%	69.0%	1.14×	1.27
Cerezo Osaka (+1.5)	73.1%	73.7%	82.0%	0.90×	1.36
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-0.5)	52.0%	52.3%	42.9%	1.22×	1.91
Cerezo Osaka (+0.5)	48.0%	47.7%	57.1%	0.83×	2.10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)	26.9%	26.3%	18.0%	1.46×	3.80
Cerezo Osaka (-0.5)	22.6%	21.5%	31.0%	0.69×	4.64
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)	11.0%	11.5%	6.2%	1.86×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to concede	78.5%	79.0%	75.3%	1.05×	1.27
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	21.5%	21.0%	24.7%	0.85×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to concede in 1st half	48.4%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet in 1st half	51.6%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 6.5 corners	94.6%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Cerezo Osaka under 5.5 corners	88.8%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Cerezo Osaka under 4.5 corners	78.8%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Cerezo Osaka under 3.5 corners	63.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Cerezo Osaka over 2.5 corners	56.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Cerezo Osaka under 2.5 corners	43.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Cerezo Osaka over 3.5 corners	36.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Cerezo Osaka over 4.5 corners	21.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
Cerezo Osaka over 5.5 corners	11.2%	15.1%	—	—	6.63
Cerezo Osaka over 6.5 corners	5.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.33

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.6%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Cerezo Osaka under 2.5 goals	93.5%	92.4%	87.8%	1.05×	1.08
Cerezo Osaka under 1.5 goals	76.7%	76.2%	68.2%	1.12×	1.31
Cerezo Osaka over 0.5 goals	59.9%	59.7%	68.0%	0.88×	1.68
Cerezo Osaka under 0.5 goals	40.1%	40.3%	32.0%	1.26×	2.48
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 goals	23.3%	23.8%	31.8%	0.75×	4.20
Cerezo Osaka over 2.5 goals	6.5%	7.6%	12.2%	0.63×	13.08
Cerezo Osaka over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.4%	4.1%	0.59×	41.12

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 1.5 in 1st half	94.7%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Cerezo Osaka under 0.5 in 1st half	69.4%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Cerezo Osaka over 0.5 in 1st half	30.7%	31.9%	—	—	3.13
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 in 1st half	5.3%	5.8%	—	—	17.32

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (away no bet)	67.2%	66.5%	62.0%	1.07×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	32.8%	33.5%	38.0%	0.88×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka even goals	58.0%	56.9%	54.4%	1.05×	1.76
Cerezo Osaka odd goals	42.0%	43.1%	45.6%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.6%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.4%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.4%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 2+ in a row	38.8%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.9%	16.4%	—	—	6.09
Cerezo Osaka to score 2+ in a row	16.8%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 3+ in a row	14.5%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Cerezo Osaka to score 3+ in a row	3.6%	2.6%	—	—	37.91

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+3.5)	98.3%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+2.5)	96.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (+1.5)	93.9%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-1.5)	74.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-2.5)	65.2%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Sanfrecce Hiroshima corners (-3.5)	54.5%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Cerezo Osaka corners (+3.5)	45.5%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Cerezo Osaka corners (+2.5)	34.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Cerezo Osaka corners (+1.5)	25.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Cerezo Osaka corners (-1.5)	6.1%	11.3%	—	—	8.82
Cerezo Osaka corners (-2.5)	3.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Cerezo Osaka corners (-3.5)	1.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.70

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	34.8%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
12+ corners	34.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
9-11 corners	30.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	73.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.4%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	65.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	55.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.6%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Under 9.5 corners	45.4%	47.7%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	44.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	34.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	34.6%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 12.5 corners	26.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	24.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.4%	11.5%	12.8%	0.89×	8.73
1-1	12.0%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.73
2-0	10.2%	11.4%	7.3%	1.57×	8.73
0-0	8.5%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.46
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.46
0-1	8.0%	7.4%	10.0%	0.75×	13.46
1-2	5.5%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.46
3-0	5.2%	7.4%	3.6%	2.04×	13.46
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.56
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.57
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.59
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.59
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.58
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.59
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.57
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.59
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.59
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.58
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.59
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.70×	58.59
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.35×	58.58
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.58
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.59
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.59
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading at HT (DNB)	67.8%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Cerezo Osaka leading at HT (DNB)	32.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1X)	77.4%	75.6%	69.0%	1.10×	1.32
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Cerezo Osaka (12)	74.6%	72.1%	73.7%	0.98×	1.39
Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2)	48.0%	48.6%	57.1%	0.85×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw at HT	82.3%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Cerezo Osaka or draw at HT	62.7%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Cerezo Osaka at HT	55.0%	56.7%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1UP)	77.4%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Cerezo Osaka or draw (1UP)	48.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw in 2nd half	78.2%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Cerezo Osaka in 2nd half	63.0%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Cerezo Osaka or draw in 2nd half	58.8%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.5%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	34.5%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (DNB)	69.7%	67.2%	58.0%	1.16×	1.49
Cerezo Osaka (DNB)	30.3%	32.8%	42.0%	0.78×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score first	57.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Cerezo Osaka to score first	34.1%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
No goal scored	8.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.1%	51.5%	49.5%	1.04×	1.94
Both teams to score	46.9%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	43.6%	41.6%	40.0%	1.04×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	35.0%	34.4%	37.2%	0.93×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.4%	9.7%	0.87×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.4%	85.7%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.6%	14.3%	13.8%	1.04×	6.99

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.2%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.0%	21.1%	—	—	4.75
Both score 1st half only	11.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Both score in both halves	3.7%	5.0%	—	—	20.18

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	48.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.4%	47.2%	1.01×	2.11
0-1 goals	29.8%	26.4%	29.6%	0.89×	3.78
4-6 goals	22.0%	22.8%	21.0%	1.08×	4.38
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	2.5%	0.71×	55.31

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 0	40.1%	36.9%	32.0%	1.16×	2.71
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 1	36.6%	36.0%	36.4%	0.99×	2.78
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 2	16.8%	19.5%	19.8%	0.99×	5.12
Cerezo Osaka to score 3+	6.5%	8.5%	12.2%	0.70×	11.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 1	33.0%	32.6%	36.4%	0.90×	3.06
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 2	25.4%	26.5%	24.4%	1.09×	3.77
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score exactly 0	21.5%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 3+	20.1%	23.3%	14.9%	1.56×	4.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.0%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading at HT	37.3%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Cerezo Osaka leading at HT	17.7%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: 2	48.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: 1	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1: X	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:1)	48.0%	45.9%	57.1%	0.80×	2.18
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:1)	26.9%	27.0%	18.0%	1.50×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	25.1%	27.0%	25.0%	1.08×	3.71

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:2)	73.1%	75.6%	82.0%	0.92×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.9%	15.3%	12.0%	1.27×	6.54
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:2)	11.0%	11.0%	6.2%	1.78×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:3)	89.0%	90.8%	93.8%	0.97×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.3%	5.8%	4.3%	1.36×	17.23
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	2.1%	1.16×	41.98

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:4)	96.3%	98.1%	97.9%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.84×	83.16
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	0.8%	1.52×	83.36

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (1:0)	77.4%	78.5%	69.0%	1.14×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.0%	17.0%	19.3%	0.88×	5.88
Cerezo Osaka (1:0)	7.6%	6.9%	11.9%	0.58×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2:0)	92.4%	93.9%	88.1%	1.07×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	6.0%	1.07×	15.51
Cerezo Osaka (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	6.0%	0.38×	44.29

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede	59.9%	61.0%	68.0%	0.90×	1.64
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet	40.1%	39.0%	32.0%	1.22×	2.57

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet in 1st half	69.4%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to concede in 1st half	30.7%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 2.5 corners	94.4%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 3.5 corners	87.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 4.5 corners	78.2%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 5.5 corners	66.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 6.5 corners	54.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 6.5 corners	45.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 5.5 corners	33.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 4.5 corners	21.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 3.5 corners	12.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 2.5 corners	5.6%	11.7%	—	—	8.57

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 3.5 goals	93.0%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 2.5 goals	79.9%	77.7%	85.1%	0.91×	1.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 goals	78.5%	77.7%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 goals	54.5%	53.3%	60.9%	0.88×	1.88
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 goals	45.5%	46.7%	39.1%	1.19×	2.14
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 goals	21.5%	22.3%	24.7%	0.90×	4.49
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 2.5 goals	20.1%	22.3%	14.9%	1.50×	4.49
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 3.5 goals	7.0%	7.8%	5.1%	1.53×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 1.5 in 1st half	85.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 in 1st half	48.4%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Sanfrecce Hiroshima under 0.5 in 1st half	51.6%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 in 1st half	14.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.86

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.0%	51.6%	45.9%	1.12×	1.94
Cerezo Osaka (home no bet)	47.0%	48.4%	54.1%	0.89×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima even goals	52.3%	50.6%	52.4%	0.97×	1.97
Sanfrecce Hiroshima odd goals	47.7%	49.4%	47.6%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	23.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	13.1%	11.1%	—	—	9.04
HT 1-1	8.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-0	7.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.10
Any other HT score	3.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.66
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.2%	—	—	44.71
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.2%	—	—	44.75
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.81
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.2%	—	—	44.90

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT	31.1%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Draw at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT	18.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	11.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	9.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.09
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Sanfrecce Hiroshima at FT	2.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.19
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	1.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score last	57.4%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Cerezo Osaka to score last	34.2%	33.0%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	8.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 1 at any time	64.6%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.7%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 1 at any time	38.5%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 2 at any time	32.4%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead by 3 at any time	12.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 2 at any time	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	—	—	63.15

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima most corners	83.2%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Cerezo Osaka most corners	10.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.40
Corners level	6.3%	8.4%	—	—	11.93

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.3%	83.5%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	68.9%	69.0%	68.0%	1.01×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.3%	69.0%	69.6%	0.99×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.3%	69.0%	65.0%	1.06×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.9%	59.2%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
1-2 goals	47.1%	48.7%	46.4%	1.05×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.7%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.1%	43.6%	44.3%	0.98×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.1%	35.4%	35.6%	0.99×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.0%	24.4%	21.0%	1.16×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.3%	18.6%	18.0%	1.03×	5.37
5-6 goals	9.0%	8.7%	8.9%	0.99×	11.43
7+ goals	1.3%	2.5%	2.5%	1.00×	39.52

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima never behind	53.0%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Cerezo Osaka never behind	26.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	53.2%	0.96×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	46.8%	1.05×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.1%	95.5%	94.5%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.7%	87.7%	88.8%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.8%	77.4%	76.6%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.2%	72.5%	70.4%	1.03×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.6%	58.8%	53.3%	1.10×	1.70
Over 2.5 goals	44.4%	41.2%	46.7%	0.88×	2.43
Under 1.5 goals	29.8%	27.5%	29.6%	0.93×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	23.2%	22.6%	23.4%	0.97×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	10.3%	12.3%	11.2%	1.10×	8.12
Under 0.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	7.1%	1.09×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.9%	4.5%	5.5%	0.81×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.3%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.8%	97.2%	94.1%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.2%	86.7%	87.2%	0.99×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.5%	72.6%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.8%	55.6%	61.2%	0.91×	1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.2%	44.4%	38.8%	1.15×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.5%	27.4%	30.5%	0.90×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.8%	13.3%	12.8%	1.04×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.2%	2.8%	5.9%	0.47×	36.32
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.7%	2.6%	1.05×	36.41

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.5%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.6%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.2%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.8%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.4%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.5%	7.2%	—	—	13.85

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.97
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka not to score in both halves	87.1%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to score in both halves	71.8%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score in both halves	28.2%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Cerezo Osaka to score in both halves	12.9%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.9%	50.4%	50.5%	1.00×	1.99
Only Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores	31.6%	33.4%	25.0%	1.33×	3.00
Only Cerezo Osaka scores	13.0%	10.9%	17.7%	0.62×	9.14
Neither team scores	8.5%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.7%	25.0%	23.9%	1.04×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	21.4%	22.6%	22.6%	1.00×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.6%	23.4%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	13.0%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	8.5%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.4%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.9%	4.4%	5.5%	0.80×	22.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.7%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	34.4%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka not to win both halves	96.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to win both halves	84.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win both halves	15.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Cerezo Osaka to win both halves	3.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to win neither half	64.3%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win either half	63.2%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win neither half	36.8%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Cerezo Osaka to win either half	35.7%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka not to win to nil	87.0%	88.2%	82.3%	1.07×	1.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to win to nil	68.4%	69.7%	75.0%	0.93×	1.44
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win to nil	31.6%	30.3%	25.0%	1.21×	3.30
Cerezo Osaka to win to nil	13.0%	11.8%	17.7%	0.67×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.4%	27.8%	26.3%	1.06×	3.59
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 1	25.1%	27.8%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 2	15.9%	16.9%	12.0%	1.41×	5.90
Cerezo Osaka by 1	15.0%	16.9%	19.3%	0.88×	5.90
Sanfrecce Hiroshima by 3+	11.0%	11.8%	6.2%	1.91×	8.47
Cerezo Osaka by 2	5.6%	7.2%	6.0%	1.20×	13.81
Cerezo Osaka by 3+	1.9%	2.7%	6.0%	0.45×	37.01