Santa Clara v Braga — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627
Primeira Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailySanta Clara win
26.6%
model 28.3%
Draw
26.5%
model 26.0%
Braga win
46.9%
model 45.7%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 13.9%
- 1-1 12.1%
- 1-0 10.4%
- 0-0 8.9%
- 0-2 8.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 41.1% | Under 2.5 | 58.9% |
| BTTS yes | 45.5% | BTTS no | 54.5% |
| Santa Clara 1+ | 62.7% | Santa Clara 2+ | 25.9% |
| Braga 1+ | 73.9% | Braga 2+ | 38.8% |
Expected goals 0.99 – 1.34. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Braga or draw (X2)
Double chance · usually 58%
72.3% fair odds 1.38
strong signal · 1552 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Santa Clara not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Braga carry the stronger rating, 1639 Elo against 1508.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Braga have an estimated 46.9% win probability, against 26.6% for Santa Clara and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.99 for Santa Clara and 1.34 for Braga.
Why Santa Clara
Nothing in the data singles out Santa Clara.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.5%. A combined 2.33 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Braga can win
Braga carry the stronger rating, 1639 Elo against 1508.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Santa Clara, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Braga, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Santa Clara: 44% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Braga: 58% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Braga are the model's most likely outcome at 46.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.9%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.99–1.34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.91–1.29 | 0-1 15% | 38% | 42% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga to win | 46.1% | 47.4% | 31.4% | 1.51× | 2.11 |
| Santa Clara to win | 27.1% | 27.9% | 42.2% | 0.66× | 3.59 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.9% | 26.6% | 1.05× | 3.59 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga & not both score | 30.0% | 25.2% | 19.8% | 1.27× | 3.97 |
| Santa Clara & not both score | 17.3% | 17.9% | 26.1% | 0.69× | 5.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 16.6% | 17.9% | 20.4% | 0.88× | 5.58 |
| Braga & both teams score | 16.1% | 17.9% | 11.7% | 1.52× | 5.59 |
| Draw & not both score | 10.3% | 13.3% | 6.3% | 2.09× | 7.55 |
| Santa Clara & both teams score | 9.8% | 8.4% | 16.2% | 0.52× | 11.92 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga & under 3.5 | 36.7% | 34.9% | 25.5% | 1.37× | 2.86 |
| Braga & over 1.5 | 31.0% | 30.8% | 22.4% | 1.38× | 3.24 |
| Braga & under 2.5 | 24.3% | 21.6% | 14.2% | 1.52× | 4.62 |
| Santa Clara & under 3.5 | 22.8% | 21.6% | 29.2% | 0.74× | 4.62 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 22.5% | 21.6% | 17.2% | 1.26× | 4.62 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 22.5% | 21.6% | 17.2% | 1.26× | 4.62 |
| Braga & over 2.5 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 17.3% | 1.25× | 4.62 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 16.6% | 18.0% | 20.4% | 0.88× | 5.56 |
| Santa Clara & over 1.5 | 16.2% | 18.0% | 31.5% | 0.57× | 5.56 |
| Santa Clara & under 2.5 | 15.5% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 1.02× | 5.56 |
| Braga & under 1.5 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 9.1% | 1.97× | 5.56 |
| Santa Clara & over 2.5 | 11.6% | 12.9% | 24.7% | 0.52× | 7.77 |
| Santa Clara & under 1.5 | 10.9% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 1.19× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 10.3% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 2.03× | 7.77 |
| Braga & over 3.5 | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 1.31× | 12.70 |
| Santa Clara & over 3.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 13.1% | 0.36× | 20.92 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 4.4% | 4.8% | 9.6% | 0.50× | 20.92 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 4.4% | 4.8% | 9.6% | 0.50× | 20.92 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (1UP) | 58.4% | 58.2% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Santa Clara (1UP) | 41.4% | 39.0% | — | — | 2.56 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (2UP) | 46.1% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
| Santa Clara (2UP) | 27.1% | 25.0% | — | — | 4.00 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 39.1% | 36.3% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Braga to win 2nd half | 38.3% | 36.3% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Santa Clara to win 2nd half | 22.6% | 23.0% | — | — | 4.35 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (+2.5) | 97.7% | 96.3% | 89.6% | 1.07× | 1.04 |
| Braga (+1.5) | 91.0% | 92.1% | 77.7% | 1.18× | 1.09 |
| Braga (+0.5) | 72.9% | 73.7% | 57.8% | 1.27× | 1.36 |
| Santa Clara (+0.5) | 53.9% | 52.4% | 68.6% | 0.76× | 1.91 |
| Braga (-0.5) | 46.1% | 47.6% | 31.4% | 1.52× | 2.10 |
| Santa Clara (-0.5) | 27.1% | 26.3% | 42.2% | 0.62× | 3.80 |
| Santa Clara (-1.5) | 9.0% | 7.9% | 22.3% | 0.36× | 12.63 |
| Santa Clara (-2.5) | 2.3% | 3.7% | 10.4% | 0.36× | 26.90 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga to concede | 59.7% | 62.8% | 74.0% | 0.85× | 1.59 |
| Braga clean sheet | 40.3% | 37.2% | 26.0% | 1.43× | 2.69 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga clean sheet in 1st half | 67.6% | 70.5% | — | — | 1.42 |
| Braga to concede in 1st half | 32.4% | 29.5% | — | — | 3.39 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga over 2.5 corners | 80.2% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Braga under 6.5 corners | 75.7% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Braga over 3.5 corners | 65.5% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Braga under 5.5 corners | 64.2% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Braga under 4.5 corners | 50.0% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Braga over 4.5 corners | 50.0% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Braga over 5.5 corners | 35.8% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Braga under 3.5 corners | 34.5% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Braga over 6.5 corners | 24.3% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.15 |
| Braga under 2.5 corners | 19.8% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.39 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga under 3.5 goals | 95.8% | 97.5% | 96.1% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Braga under 2.5 goals | 86.0% | 87.9% | 88.9% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| Braga over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | 71.9% | 67.7% | 1.06× | 1.39 |
| Braga under 1.5 goals | 63.1% | 62.9% | 65.4% | 0.96× | 1.59 |
| Braga over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 37.1% | 34.6% | 1.07× | 2.70 |
| Braga under 0.5 goals | 27.6% | 28.1% | 32.3% | 0.87× | 3.56 |
| Braga over 2.5 goals | 14.0% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 1.09× | 8.25 |
| Braga over 3.5 goals | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 0.64× | 40.75 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga under 1.5 in 1st half | 90.5% | 94.1% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Braga under 0.5 in 1st half | 59.7% | 62.6% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Braga over 0.5 in 1st half | 40.3% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Braga over 1.5 in 1st half | 9.5% | 5.9% | — | — | 16.82 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara (away no bet) | 50.2% | 51.2% | 61.3% | 0.83× | 1.95 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 49.8% | 48.8% | 38.7% | 1.26× | 2.05 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga even goals | 53.8% | 52.8% | 58.6% | 0.90× | 1.89 |
| Braga odd goals | 46.2% | 47.2% | 41.4% | 1.14× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 91.5% | 92.3% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 8.5% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.90 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 48.9% | 50.0% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 51.1% | 50.0% | — | — | 2.00 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 45.1% | 45.8% | — | — | 2.19 |
| Braga to score 2+ in a row | 31.0% | 28.7% | — | — | 3.48 |
| Santa Clara to score 2+ in a row | 17.5% | 16.4% | — | — | 6.09 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 13.7% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.24 |
| Braga to score 3+ in a row | 10.0% | 5.7% | — | — | 17.55 |
| Santa Clara to score 3+ in a row | 3.9% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.05 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga corners (+3.5) | 92.5% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Braga corners (+2.5) | 87.3% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Braga corners (+1.5) | 79.9% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Santa Clara corners (+3.5) | 74.9% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Santa Clara corners (+2.5) | 64.9% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Santa Clara corners (+1.5) | 53.3% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Braga corners (-1.5) | 46.7% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Braga corners (-2.5) | 35.1% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Braga corners (-3.5) | 25.1% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Santa Clara corners (-1.5) | 20.1% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Santa Clara corners (-2.5) | 12.7% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
| Santa Clara corners (-3.5) | 7.5% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 55.3% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.15 |
| 9-11 corners | 27.1% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 17.6% | 22.6% | — | — | 4.42 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 88.0% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.4% | 80.8% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 75.0% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 65.9% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 56.3% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 55.3% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 44.7% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 43.7% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 34.1% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 25.0% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 17.6% | 19.2% | — | — | 5.20 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 12.0% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.88 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.1% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 1.51× | 7.28 |
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 1.04× | 8.74 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 1.06× | 8.74 |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 1.81× | 8.74 |
| 0-2 | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.41× | 13.47 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.96× | 13.47 |
| 2-1 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.47 |
| 0-3 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 0.44× | 58.50 |
| 0-4 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.38× | 58.52 |
| 1-3 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.23× | 58.50 |
| 1-4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.58× | 58.52 |
| 2-0 | 4.6% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.25× | 58.50 |
| 2-2 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 8.3% | 0.20× | 58.50 |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.38× | 58.51 |
| 2-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.76× | 58.52 |
| 3-0 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.36× | 58.52 |
| 3-1 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.36× | 58.51 |
| 3-2 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.52 |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.38× | 58.52 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 11.06× | 58.52 |
| 4-0 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.61× | 58.52 |
| 4-1 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.23× | 58.52 |
| 4-2 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.76× | 58.52 |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.53× | 58.52 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.53× | 58.52 |
| Any other score | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.58× | 58.52 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga leading at HT (DNB) | 58.4% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Santa Clara leading at HT (DNB) | 41.6% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara or Braga (12) | 73.2% | 72.1% | 73.4% | 0.98× | 1.39 |
| Braga or draw (X2) | 72.9% | 72.1% | 57.8% | 1.25× | 1.39 |
| Santa Clara or draw (1X) | 53.9% | 52.6% | 68.6% | 0.77× | 1.90 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga or draw at HT | 78.6% | 79.9% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Santa Clara or draw at HT | 70.0% | 74.4% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Santa Clara or Braga at HT | 51.3% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga or draw (1UP) | 72.9% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Santa Clara or draw (1UP) | 53.9% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.69 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga or draw in 2nd half | 77.4% | 77.0% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Santa Clara or draw in 2nd half | 61.7% | 63.7% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Santa Clara or Braga in 2nd half | 60.9% | 63.7% | — | — | 1.57 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 69.6% | 69.8% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Neither half drawn | 30.4% | 30.2% | — | — | 3.31 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (DNB) | 63.0% | 62.8% | 42.6% | 1.47× | 1.59 |
| Santa Clara (DNB) | 37.0% | 37.2% | 57.4% | 0.65× | 2.69 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga to score first | 52.6% | 53.9% | — | — | 1.86 |
| Santa Clara to score first | 37.1% | 32.7% | — | — | 3.06 |
| No goal scored | 10.3% | 9.5% | — | — | 10.49 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 57.5% | 54.8% | 51.9% | 1.06× | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 45.2% | 48.1% | 0.94× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 50.1% | 47.0% | 37.9% | 1.24× | 2.13 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 30.3% | 34.3% | 37.2% | 0.92× | 2.92 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 1.12× | 8.12 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 7.4% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 0.59× | 11.95 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 91.5% | 89.1% | 85.9% | 1.04× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 8.5% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 0.78× | 9.17 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 78.5% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 21.5% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 68.4% | 62.8% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 18.7% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.31 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.1% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.52 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.8% | 4.9% | — | — | 20.53 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 87.1% | 85.8% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.9% | 14.2% | — | — | 7.05 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 57.1% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| A goal in each half | 42.9% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 45.7% | 47.4% | 45.8% | 1.04× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 36.3% | 35.0% | 26.0% | 1.35× | 2.85 |
| 4-6 goals | 17.3% | 20.2% | 27.7% | 0.73× | 4.95 |
| 7+ goals | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.95× | 55.18 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga to score exactly 1 | 35.5% | 36.0% | 33.2% | 1.08× | 2.78 |
| Braga to score exactly 0 | 27.6% | 27.4% | 32.3% | 0.85× | 3.65 |
| Braga to score exactly 2 | 22.9% | 22.4% | 23.6% | 0.95× | 4.46 |
| Braga to score 3+ | 14.0% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 1.15× | 7.80 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara to score exactly 1 | 36.6% | 35.6% | 31.5% | 1.13× | 2.81 |
| Santa Clara to score exactly 0 | 40.3% | 34.9% | 26.0% | 1.34× | 2.87 |
| Santa Clara to score exactly 2 | 16.7% | 18.9% | 23.6% | 0.80× | 5.30 |
| Santa Clara to score 3+ | 6.5% | 10.3% | 19.2% | 0.54× | 9.73 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 48.7% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Braga leading at HT | 30.0% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.91 |
| Santa Clara leading at HT | 21.4% | 20.1% | — | — | 4.98 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga -1: 1 | 53.9% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Braga -1: X | 25.3% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Braga -1: 2 | 20.8% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (0:1) | 72.9% | 71.0% | 57.8% | 1.23× | 1.41 |
| Draw (0:1) | 18.1% | 17.8% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.62 |
| Santa Clara (0:1) | 9.0% | 9.3% | 22.3% | 0.42× | 10.81 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (0:2) | 91.0% | 90.8% | 77.7% | 1.17× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:2) | 6.7% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 0.64× | 12.96 |
| Santa Clara (0:2) | 2.3% | 3.8% | 10.4% | 0.36× | 26.60 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (0:3) | 97.7% | 96.6% | 89.6% | 1.08× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 1.9% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 0.39× | 42.13 |
| Santa Clara (0:3) | 0.5% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 0.53× | 42.19 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (0:4) | 99.5% | 98.1% | 95.5% | 1.03× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 0.37× | 83.57 |
| Santa Clara (0:4) | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.86× | 83.61 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara (1:0) | 53.9% | 54.2% | 68.6% | 0.79× | 1.85 |
| Draw (1:0) | 25.3% | 25.1% | 17.8% | 1.41× | 3.99 |
| Braga (1:0) | 20.8% | 21.7% | 13.8% | 1.58× | 4.60 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara (2:0) | 79.2% | 80.5% | 86.2% | 0.93× | 1.24 |
| Draw (2:0) | 13.4% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 1.46× | 9.61 |
| Braga (2:0) | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 0.95× | 15.52 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 46.1% | 48.1% | — | — | 2.08 |
| Halves equal | 27.2% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.7% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara to concede | 72.4% | 73.0% | 67.7% | 1.08× | 1.37 |
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 27.6% | 27.0% | 32.3% | 0.83× | 3.71 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara clean sheet in 1st half | 59.7% | 62.6% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Santa Clara to concede in 1st half | 40.3% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.68 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara under 6.5 corners | 90.3% | 89.3% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Santa Clara under 5.5 corners | 82.7% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Santa Clara under 4.5 corners | 71.0% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Santa Clara over 2.5 corners | 63.9% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Santa Clara under 3.5 corners | 55.0% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Santa Clara over 3.5 corners | 45.0% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Santa Clara under 2.5 corners | 36.1% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Santa Clara over 4.5 corners | 29.0% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Santa Clara over 5.5 corners | 17.3% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
| Santa Clara over 6.5 corners | 9.7% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.35 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara under 3.5 goals | 98.6% | 96.4% | 93.5% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Santa Clara under 2.5 goals | 93.5% | 92.3% | 80.8% | 1.14× | 1.08 |
| Santa Clara under 1.5 goals | 76.9% | 77.7% | 57.3% | 1.36× | 1.29 |
| Santa Clara over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | 58.8% | 74.0% | 0.79× | 1.70 |
| Santa Clara under 0.5 goals | 40.3% | 41.2% | 26.0% | 1.59× | 2.43 |
| Santa Clara over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 22.3% | 42.7% | 0.52× | 4.49 |
| Santa Clara over 2.5 goals | 6.5% | 7.7% | 19.2% | 0.40× | 12.93 |
| Santa Clara over 3.5 goals | 1.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 0.56× | 27.52 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara under 1.5 in 1st half | 94.1% | 95.5% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Santa Clara under 0.5 in 1st half | 67.6% | 69.0% | — | — | 1.45 |
| Santa Clara over 0.5 in 1st half | 32.4% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Santa Clara over 1.5 in 1st half | 5.9% | 4.5% | — | — | 22.09 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga (home no bet) | 63.2% | 60.1% | 54.1% | 1.11× | 1.66 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 36.8% | 39.9% | 45.9% | 0.87× | 2.51 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara even goals | 58.1% | 55.5% | 54.6% | 1.02× | 1.80 |
| Santa Clara odd goals | 41.9% | 44.5% | 45.4% | 0.98× | 2.25 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 40.2% | 40.8% | — | — | 2.45 |
| HT 0-1 | 21.0% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
| HT 1-0 | 15.9% | 18.8% | — | — | 5.33 |
| HT 1-1 | 8.0% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.16 |
| HT 0-2 | 5.4% | 7.0% | — | — | 14.20 |
| HT 2-0 | 3.1% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.84 |
| Any other HT score | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.90 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.1% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.91 |
| HT 2-1 | 1.6% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.95 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.4% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.04 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga at HT / Braga at FT | 24.7% | 21.8% | — | — | 4.58 |
| Draw at HT / Braga at FT | 19.1% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.94 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 18.2% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.94 |
| Santa Clara at HT / Santa Clara at FT | 14.5% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Santa Clara at FT | 11.4% | 12.6% | — | — | 7.91 |
| Santa Clara at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.81 |
| Braga at HT / Draw at FT | 4.0% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.83 |
| Santa Clara at HT / Braga at FT | 2.2% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.90 |
| Braga at HT / Santa Clara at FT | 1.2% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.94 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga to score last | 52.5% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Santa Clara to score last | 37.2% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.62 |
| No goal scored | 10.3% | 8.9% | — | — | 11.21 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 89.7% | 91.0% | — | — | 1.10 |
| Braga to lead by 1 at any time | 58.4% | 55.2% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Santa Clara to lead by 1 at any time | 41.4% | 39.2% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 38.0% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Braga to lead by 2 at any time | 25.4% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.96 |
| Santa Clara to lead by 2 at any time | 12.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 11.8% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.63 |
| Braga to lead by 3 at any time | 8.7% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.17 |
| Santa Clara to lead by 3 at any time | 3.1% | 1.6% | — | — | 63.41 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga most corners | 58.8% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Santa Clara most corners | 29.8% | 31.0% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Corners level | 11.4% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.2% | 87.4% | 90.0% | 0.97× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 82.5% | 83.5% | 83.2% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| 1-3 goals | 71.7% | 72.4% | 65.4% | 1.11× | 1.38 |
| 2-6 goals | 63.0% | 63.4% | 73.3% | 0.87× | 1.58 |
| 2-5 goals | 61.2% | 63.4% | 70.3% | 0.90× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 56.5% | 59.2% | 63.5% | 0.93× | 1.69 |
| 1-2 goals | 52.0% | 53.2% | 42.5% | 1.25× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 45.7% | 48.7% | 45.8% | 1.06× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 37.0% | 39.2% | 50.5% | 0.78× | 2.55 |
| 3-5 goals | 35.2% | 39.2% | 47.6% | 0.82× | 2.55 |
| 3-4 goals | 30.5% | 35.4% | 40.8% | 0.87× | 2.83 |
| 4-6 goals | 17.3% | 18.6% | 27.7% | 0.67× | 5.37 |
| 4-5 goals | 15.6% | 18.6% | 24.7% | 0.75× | 5.37 |
| 5-6 goals | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 0.88× | 11.44 |
| 7+ goals | 0.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 2.73× | 39.49 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga never behind | 48.4% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Santa Clara never behind | 31.3% | 35.7% | — | — | 2.80 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 49.0% | 50.8% | 50.1% | 1.01× | 1.97 |
| Odd number of goals | 51.0% | 49.2% | 49.9% | 0.99× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 57.9% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 42.1% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 53.2% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 46.8% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 97.5% | 95.5% | 96.1% | 0.99× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 92.8% | 92.3% | 89.3% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 89.7% | 87.7% | 93.7% | 0.94× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 82.0% | 82.4% | 71.6% | 1.15× | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | 61.7% | 74.0% | 0.83× | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.3% | 61.7% | 48.7% | 1.27× | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 38.3% | 51.3% | 0.75× | 2.61 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 38.3% | 26.0% | 1.47× | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 17.6% | 28.4% | 0.62× | 5.67 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10.3% | 12.3% | 6.3% | 1.95× | 8.10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 0.72× | 12.94 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.16× | 22.25 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.2% | 97.3% | 99.0% | 0.98× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 97.4% | 97.2% | 95.9% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 91.9% | 92.5% | 87.0% | 1.06× | 1.08 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 77.5% | 75.9% | 63.1% | 1.20× | 1.32 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 51.0% | 51.8% | 66.4% | 0.78× | 1.93 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 49.0% | 48.2% | 33.6% | 1.44× | 2.07 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 22.5% | 24.1% | 36.9% | 0.65× | 4.15 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 8.1% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 0.58× | 13.27 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 0.66× | 36.34 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 2.88× | 36.40 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 93.6% | 92.9% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 77.1% | 78.9% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 59.8% | 63.8% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 40.2% | 36.2% | — | — | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 22.9% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.73 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 6.4% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.03 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 85.9% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 72.8% | 77.7% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 63.2% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 36.8% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 27.2% | 22.3% | — | — | 4.49 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 14.1% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.76 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara not to score in both halves | 86.9% | 86.0% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Braga not to score in both halves | 78.3% | 78.3% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Braga to score in both halves | 21.7% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
| Santa Clara to score in both halves | 13.1% | 14.0% | — | — | 7.14 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 42.5% | 46.6% | 48.1% | 0.97× | 2.15 |
| Only Braga scores | 30.0% | 26.2% | 19.8% | 1.32× | 3.82 |
| Only Santa Clara scores | 17.3% | 16.1% | 26.1% | 0.62× | 6.22 |
| Neither team scores | 10.3% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 1.73× | 9.15 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 1 goals | 26.0% | 24.9% | 19.8% | 1.26× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 26.0% | 24.9% | 22.9% | 1.09× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 19.7% | 17.4% | 23.0% | 0.76× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 10.8% | 12.1% | 17.9% | 0.67× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 10.3% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 1.90× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 0.63× | 22.67 |
| 6 or more goals | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.14× | 22.70 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 36.8% | 40.0% | — | — | 2.50 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 36.0% | 39.9% | — | — | 2.50 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 27.2% | 29.8% | — | — | 3.35 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara not to win both halves | 95.3% | 97.1% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Braga not to win both halves | 88.7% | 88.1% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Braga to win both halves | 11.3% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.37 |
| Santa Clara to win both halves | 4.7% | 2.9% | — | — | 35.06 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara to win neither half | 60.8% | 65.1% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Braga to win either half | 56.9% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Braga to win neither half | 43.1% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.47 |
| Santa Clara to win either half | 39.2% | 34.9% | — | — | 2.87 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara not to win to nil | 82.7% | 83.0% | 73.9% | 1.12× | 1.21 |
| Braga not to win to nil | 70.0% | 75.2% | 80.2% | 0.94× | 1.33 |
| Braga to win to nil | 30.0% | 24.8% | 19.8% | 1.25× | 4.04 |
| Santa Clara to win to nil | 17.3% | 17.0% | 26.1% | 0.65× | 5.89 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.8% | 26.6% | 1.05× | 3.60 |
| Braga by 1 | 25.3% | 27.8% | 17.8% | 1.56× | 3.60 |
| Santa Clara by 1 | 18.1% | 17.0% | 20.1% | 0.84× | 5.90 |
| Braga by 2 | 13.4% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 1.66× | 8.47 |
| Braga by 3+ | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 1.07× | 13.80 |
| Santa Clara by 2 | 6.7% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 0.60× | 13.80 |
| Santa Clara by 3+ | 2.3% | 2.7% | 10.4% | 0.26× | 37.06 |