Sporting CP v FC Arouca — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Sporting CP

14:00

FC Arouca

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 346h before kick-off

Sporting CP win

82.7%

model 78.6%

Draw

10.1%

model 12.5%

FC Arouca win

7.1%

model 8.9%

83107

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (50 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 9.8%
3-0 9.4%
2-1 8.5%
3-1 8.1%
1-0 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	72.0%	Under 2.5	28.0%
BTTS yes	54.4%	BTTS no	45.6%
Sporting CP 1+	94.3%	Sporting CP 2+	78.0%
FC Arouca 1+	58.1%	FC Arouca 2+	21.7%

Expected goals 2.86 – 0.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Sporting CP (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 22%

56.9% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

1-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 90%

82.4% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1382 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1535.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sporting CP have an estimated 82.7% win probability, against 10.1% for the draw and 7.1% for FC Arouca. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.86 for Sporting CP and 0.87 for FC Arouca.

Why Sporting CP

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1535. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why FC Arouca can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sporting CP, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Arouca, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sporting CP: 59% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Arouca: 49% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Sporting CP are the model's most likely outcome at 82.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 9.8%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	79139	2.86–0.87	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	82117	3.20–0.89	3-0 9%	77%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win	82.2%	80.8%	42.2%	1.91×	1.24
Draw	10.5%	13.3%	26.6%	0.50×	7.54
FC Arouca to win	7.2%	8.2%	31.4%	0.26×	12.24

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & both teams score	42.4%	40.1%	16.2%	2.47×	2.49
Sporting CP & not both score	39.8%	33.3%	26.1%	1.27×	3.01
Draw & both teams score	9.2%	8.4%	20.4%	0.41×	11.92
FC Arouca & both teams score	4.5%	4.9%	11.7%	0.41×	20.53
FC Arouca & not both score	2.7%	4.9%	19.8%	0.25×	20.58
Draw & not both score	1.4%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & over 1.5	76.5%	74.4%	31.5%	2.36×	1.34
Sporting CP & over 2.5	67.9%	67.2%	24.7%	2.72×	1.49
Sporting CP & over 3.5	51.0%	48.7%	13.1%	3.70×	2.06
Sporting CP & under 3.5	31.2%	30.8%	29.2%	1.06×	3.24
Sporting CP & under 2.5	14.3%	12.9%	17.6%	0.73×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	9.2%	7.9%	20.4%	0.39×	12.70
Sporting CP & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
Draw & under 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	17.2%	0.46×	12.70
Draw & under 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	17.2%	0.46×	12.70
FC Arouca & over 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	22.4%	0.35×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.92
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.92
FC Arouca & over 2.5	4.8%	4.8%	17.3%	0.28×	20.92
FC Arouca & under 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	25.5%	0.19×	20.92
FC Arouca & under 2.5	2.5%	4.8%	14.2%	0.34×	20.94
FC Arouca & over 3.5	2.4%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.94
FC Arouca & under 1.5	1.8%	4.8%	9.1%	0.52×	20.94
Draw & under 1.5	1.4%	4.8%	6.3%	0.75×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1UP)	89.4%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
FC Arouca (1UP)	24.9%	23.7%	—	—	4.21

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2UP)	82.2%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
FC Arouca (2UP)	7.2%	8.4%	—	—	11.86

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win 2nd half	68.8%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
2nd half drawn	21.0%	22.9%	—	—	4.37
FC Arouca to win 2nd half	10.2%	11.9%	—	—	8.40

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (+0.5)	92.8%	92.1%	68.6%	1.34×	1.09
Sporting CP (-0.5)	82.2%	82.4%	42.2%	1.95×	1.21
Sporting CP (-1.5)	64.3%	62.9%	22.3%	2.83×	1.59
FC Arouca (+2.5)	56.0%	57.0%	89.6%	0.64×	1.75
Sporting CP (-2.5)	44.0%	43.0%	10.4%	4.15×	2.33
FC Arouca (+1.5)	35.7%	37.1%	77.7%	0.48×	2.70
FC Arouca (+0.5)	17.8%	17.6%	57.8%	0.30×	5.68
FC Arouca (-0.5)	7.2%	7.9%	31.4%	0.25×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to concede	95.9%	96.2%	74.0%	1.30×	1.04
FC Arouca clean sheet	4.1%	3.8%	26.0%	0.15×	26.05

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to concede in 1st half	74.7%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
FC Arouca clean sheet in 1st half	25.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 6.5 corners	94.9%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
FC Arouca under 5.5 corners	89.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
FC Arouca under 4.5 corners	80.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
FC Arouca under 3.5 corners	66.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
FC Arouca over 2.5 corners	53.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
FC Arouca under 2.5 corners	46.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Arouca over 3.5 corners	33.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
FC Arouca over 4.5 corners	19.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
FC Arouca over 5.5 corners	10.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
FC Arouca over 6.5 corners	5.1%	9.9%	—	—	10.10

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.6%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
FC Arouca under 2.5 goals	93.9%	92.4%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
FC Arouca under 1.5 goals	77.8%	76.2%	65.4%	1.17×	1.31
FC Arouca over 0.5 goals	58.8%	59.6%	67.7%	0.88×	1.68
FC Arouca under 0.5 goals	41.2%	40.4%	32.3%	1.25×	2.47
FC Arouca over 1.5 goals	22.2%	23.8%	34.6%	0.69×	4.21
FC Arouca over 2.5 goals	6.1%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.08
FC Arouca over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.4%	3.9%	0.63×	40.91

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca under 1.5 in 1st half	95.0%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
FC Arouca under 0.5 in 1st half	70.2%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
FC Arouca over 0.5 in 1st half	29.8%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
FC Arouca over 1.5 in 1st half	5.0%	4.5%	—	—	22.35

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (away no bet)	88.6%	84.9%	61.3%	1.38×	1.18
Draw (away no bet)	11.4%	15.1%	38.7%	0.39×	6.61

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca even goals	58.5%	56.9%	58.6%	0.97×	1.76
FC Arouca odd goals	41.5%	43.1%	41.4%	1.04×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	64.9%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Both halves over 1.5 goals	35.1%	34.7%	—	—	2.88

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	84.4%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Both halves under 1.5 goals	15.6%	22.2%	—	—	4.50

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	81.6%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Sporting CP to score 2+ in a row	77.1%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Either team to score 3+ in a row	52.0%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Sporting CP to score 3+ in a row	50.5%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
FC Arouca to score 2+ in a row	12.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
FC Arouca to score 3+ in a row	1.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.25

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP corners (+3.5)	98.0%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Sporting CP corners (+2.5)	96.2%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Sporting CP corners (+1.5)	93.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sporting CP corners (-1.5)	73.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sporting CP corners (-2.5)	63.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Sporting CP corners (-3.5)	52.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
FC Arouca corners (+3.5)	47.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
FC Arouca corners (+2.5)	36.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
FC Arouca corners (+1.5)	27.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
FC Arouca corners (-1.5)	6.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
FC Arouca corners (-2.5)	3.8%	4.2%	—	—	23.54
FC Arouca corners (-3.5)	2.0%	4.2%	—	—	23.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.8%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	70.3%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	60.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	60.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	50.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	39.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	39.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	31.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	29.7%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	21.8%	20.1%	2.9%	6.86×	4.96
2-0	8.6%	7.4%	7.0%	1.07×	13.47
3-0	9.2%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.47
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.47
3-1	8.2%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.47
4-0	7.4%	7.4%	2.8%	2.67×	13.47
4-1	6.5%	7.4%	1.4%	5.34×	13.47
1-0	5.7%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.47
0-3	0.2%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.52
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.52
1-1	4.5%	1.7%	11.0%	0.16×	58.50
1-2	2.1%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.51
1-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.52
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.52
2-2	3.4%	1.7%	8.3%	0.20×	58.50
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.52
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.76×	58.52
3-2	3.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.50
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.52
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.06×	58.52
4-2	2.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.76×	58.51
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.52
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.52
0-0	1.4%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.52
0-1	1.8%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.51
0-2	0.7%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT (DNB)	87.0%	86.6%	—	—	1.16
FC Arouca leading at HT (DNB)	13.0%	13.4%	—	—	7.44

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1X)	92.8%	91.8%	68.6%	1.34×	1.09
Sporting CP or FC Arouca (12)	89.5%	86.7%	73.4%	1.18×	1.15
FC Arouca or draw (X2)	17.8%	19.2%	57.8%	0.33×	5.21

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw at HT	90.5%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Sporting CP or FC Arouca at HT	72.6%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
FC Arouca or draw at HT	36.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1UP)	92.8%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
FC Arouca or draw (1UP)	24.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.96

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw in 2nd half	89.8%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Sporting CP or FC Arouca in 2nd half	79.0%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
FC Arouca or draw in 2nd half	31.2%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	57.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
A half drawn	43.0%	41.9%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (DNB)	91.9%	93.1%	57.4%	1.62×	1.07
FC Arouca (DNB)	8.1%	6.9%	42.6%	0.16×	14.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score first	77.2%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
FC Arouca to score first	21.4%	22.5%	—	—	4.44
No goal scored	1.4%	4.2%	—	—	23.63

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.1%	54.8%	48.1%	1.14×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.9%	45.2%	51.9%	0.87×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.6%	47.0%	37.2%	1.26×	2.13
Not both score & over 2.5	25.8%	33.6%	14.2%	2.36×	2.98
Not both score & under 2.5	18.2%	21.8%	37.9%	0.57×	4.60
Both score & under 2.5	4.5%	4.7%	11.0%	0.43×	21.36

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.6%	83.1%	85.9%	0.97×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.4%	16.9%	14.1%	1.21×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.0%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	26.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Both score 1st half only	14.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.8%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.35

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	74.3%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
A half without a goal	25.7%	26.9%	—	—	3.71

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	46.5%	47.4%	27.7%	1.71×	2.11
2-3 goals	33.0%	30.8%	45.8%	0.67×	3.25
7+ goals	11.7%	16.9%	0.9%	18.25×	5.91
0-1 goals	8.9%	7.6%	26.0%	0.29×	13.12

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca to score exactly 0	41.2%	37.0%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
FC Arouca to score exactly 1	36.5%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
FC Arouca to score exactly 2	16.2%	19.5%	23.6%	0.83×	5.12
FC Arouca to score 3+	6.1%	8.5%	11.1%	0.76×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score 3+	61.9%	61.3%	19.2%	3.20×	1.63
Sporting CP to score exactly 2	20.9%	23.3%	23.6%	0.98×	4.30
Sporting CP to score exactly 1	13.1%	14.3%	31.5%	0.45×	6.97
Sporting CP to score exactly 0	4.1%	6.2%	26.0%	0.24×	16.18

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT	63.1%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Draw at HT	27.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
FC Arouca leading at HT	9.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.55

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP -1: 1	64.3%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Sporting CP -1: X	18.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Sporting CP -1: 2	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:1)	64.3%	61.4%	22.3%	2.76×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	18.0%	17.8%	20.1%	0.89×	5.62
FC Arouca (0:1)	17.8%	17.8%	57.8%	0.31×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:2)	44.0%	38.7%	10.4%	3.73×	2.59
FC Arouca (0:2)	35.7%	38.5%	77.7%	0.50×	2.59
Draw (0:2)	20.3%	20.3%	12.1%	1.69×	4.92

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:3)	56.0%	70.1%	89.6%	0.78×	1.43
Sporting CP (0:3)	26.1%	22.6%	4.5%	5.03×	4.43
Draw (0:3)	17.9%	16.1%	6.0%	2.67×	6.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca (0:4)	73.9%	78.3%	95.5%	0.82×	1.28
Sporting CP (0:4)	13.4%	9.6%	1.4%	6.92×	10.39
Draw (0:4)	12.7%	9.6%	3.2%	2.95×	10.46

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1:0)	92.8%	92.7%	68.6%	1.35×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	5.2%	6.9%	17.8%	0.39×	14.51
FC Arouca (1:0)	2.0%	3.1%	13.8%	0.23×	31.79

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2:0)	98.0%	96.9%	86.2%	1.12×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	44.41
FC Arouca (2:0)	0.5%	2.2%	6.8%	0.33×	44.48

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.1%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	19.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to concede	58.8%	61.0%	67.7%	0.90×	1.64
Sporting CP clean sheet	41.2%	39.0%	32.3%	1.21×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 1st half	70.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Sporting CP to concede in 1st half	29.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 2.5 corners	92.4%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Sporting CP over 3.5 corners	84.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sporting CP over 4.5 corners	74.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Sporting CP over 5.5 corners	62.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sporting CP over 6.5 corners	50.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Sporting CP under 6.5 corners	49.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Sporting CP under 5.5 corners	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Sporting CP under 4.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Sporting CP under 3.5 corners	15.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Sporting CP under 2.5 corners	7.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.37

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals	95.9%	96.4%	74.0%	1.30×	1.04
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals	82.8%	82.1%	42.7%	1.93×	1.22
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals	61.9%	63.4%	19.2%	3.31×	1.58
Sporting CP under 3.5 goals	60.5%	63.4%	93.5%	0.68×	1.58
Sporting CP over 3.5 goals	39.5%	36.6%	6.5%	5.64×	2.73
Sporting CP under 2.5 goals	38.1%	36.6%	80.8%	0.45×	2.73
Sporting CP under 1.5 goals	17.2%	17.9%	57.3%	0.31×	5.59
Sporting CP under 0.5 goals	4.1%	3.7%	26.0%	0.14×	27.40

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 1st half	74.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 1st half	60.1%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 1st half	39.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 1st half	25.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.4%	56.7%	45.9%	1.24×	1.76
FC Arouca (home no bet)	40.6%	43.3%	54.1%	0.80×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP even goals	50.1%	50.6%	54.6%	0.93×	1.98
Sporting CP odd goals	49.9%	49.4%	45.4%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	24.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-0	17.7%	18.8%	—	—	5.32
HT 2-0	16.8%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
Any other HT score	16.5%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-1	8.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.15
HT 0-1	6.3%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
HT 2-1	5.9%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.96
HT 0-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.99
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.99

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP at HT / Sporting CP at FT	59.6%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Draw at HT / Sporting CP at FT	19.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
FC Arouca at HT / Sporting CP at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
FC Arouca at HT / FC Arouca at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Draw at HT / FC Arouca at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Sporting CP at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
FC Arouca at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Sporting CP at HT / FC Arouca at FT	0.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score last	77.1%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
FC Arouca to score last	21.5%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
No goal scored	1.4%	4.2%	—	—	23.63

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.6%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Sporting CP to lead by 1 at any time	89.4%	90.9%	—	—	1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	75.3%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Sporting CP to lead by 2 at any time	70.4%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	49.2%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Sporting CP to lead by 3 at any time	48.2%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
FC Arouca to lead by 1 at any time	24.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
FC Arouca to lead by 2 at any time	5.4%	6.5%	—	—	15.33
FC Arouca to lead by 3 at any time	1.0%	1.5%	—	—	65.63

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP most corners	81.6%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
FC Arouca most corners	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.61
Corners level	6.7%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	79.4%	78.6%	73.3%	1.07×	1.27
1-5 goals	76.0%	78.6%	90.0%	0.87×	1.27
2-5 goals	68.5%	69.0%	70.3%	0.98×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.7%	69.0%	50.5%	1.36×	1.45
1-4 goals	60.0%	63.4%	83.2%	0.76×	1.58
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	47.6%	1.12×	1.88
2-4 goals	52.5%	53.2%	63.5%	0.84×	1.88
4-6 goals	46.5%	48.7%	27.7%	1.76×	2.06
1-3 goals	40.5%	43.6%	65.4%	0.67×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.8%	39.2%	40.8%	0.96×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.6%	39.2%	24.7%	1.58×	2.55
2-3 goals	33.0%	35.4%	45.8%	0.77×	2.83
5-6 goals	26.9%	30.2%	9.9%	3.06×	3.31
1-2 goals	21.3%	24.5%	42.5%	0.58×	4.09
7+ goals	11.7%	14.9%	0.9%	16.03×	6.73

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP never behind	73.7%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
FC Arouca never behind	9.2%	5.1%	—	—	19.66

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.8%	50.1%	1.01×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.2%	49.9%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.5%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.5%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.6%	95.5%	93.7%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	74.0%	1.25×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	77.4%	77.4%	96.1%	0.80×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	77.3%	77.4%	51.3%	1.51×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	61.4%	61.7%	89.3%	0.69×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	58.2%	58.8%	28.4%	2.07×	1.70
Under 3.5 goals	41.8%	41.2%	71.6%	0.58×	2.43
Over 4.5 goals	38.6%	38.3%	10.7%	3.59×	2.61
Over 5.5 goals	22.6%	22.6%	3.9%	5.86×	4.42
Under 2.5 goals	22.7%	22.6%	48.7%	0.46×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	26.0%	0.30×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	1.4%	4.5%	6.3%	0.71×	22.27

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.7%	86.8%	66.4%	1.31×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	86.9%	86.7%	99.0%	0.88×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	73.1%	72.6%	95.9%	0.76×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.0%	72.6%	36.9%	1.97×	1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	52.0%	51.8%	87.0%	0.60×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	48.0%	48.2%	13.0%	3.72×	2.07
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.0%	27.4%	63.1%	0.43×	3.65
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	26.9%	27.4%	4.1%	6.61×	3.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	13.1%	13.3%	1.0%	13.88×	7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.3%	13.2%	33.6%	0.39×	7.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	82.3%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	75.0%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Over 1.5 in 1st half	51.5%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Under 1.5 in 1st half	48.5%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Over 2.5 in 1st half	25.0%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	17.7%	13.6%	—	—	7.33

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.6%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	68.0%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	58.3%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	41.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.0%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.4%	11.1%	—	—	9.01

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to score in both halves	87.7%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Sporting CP to score in both halves	62.6%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Sporting CP not to score in both halves	37.4%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
FC Arouca to score in both halves	12.3%	14.0%	—	—	7.17

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.1%	58.3%	48.1%	1.21×	1.72
Only Sporting CP scores	39.8%	39.9%	26.1%	1.53×	2.51
Only FC Arouca scores	2.7%	4.6%	19.8%	0.23×	21.85
Neither team scores	1.4%	4.6%	6.3%	0.72×	21.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	22.6%	22.6%	3.9%	5.86×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.6%	17.4%	17.9%	0.97×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	19.2%	17.4%	23.0%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	16.0%	17.4%	7.0%	2.51×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	13.8%	12.1%	22.9%	0.53×	8.28
Exactly 1 goals	7.5%	7.6%	19.8%	0.39×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	1.4%	4.4%	6.3%	0.69×	22.72

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	68.0%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	22.6%	23.1%	—	—	4.34
No goals in 2nd half	9.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.48

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to win both halves	99.0%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Sporting CP not to win both halves	56.7%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Sporting CP to win both halves	43.3%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
FC Arouca to win both halves	1.0%	2.7%	—	—	36.69

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win either half	88.6%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
FC Arouca to win neither half	81.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
FC Arouca to win either half	18.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.81
Sporting CP to win neither half	11.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.31

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Arouca not to win to nil	97.3%	96.2%	80.2%	1.20×	1.04
Sporting CP not to win to nil	60.2%	66.7%	73.9%	0.90×	1.50
Sporting CP to win to nil	39.8%	33.3%	26.1%	1.28×	3.00
FC Arouca to win to nil	2.7%	3.8%	19.8%	0.19×	26.19

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP by 3+	44.0%	34.8%	10.4%	3.36×	2.87
Sporting CP by 2	20.3%	24.1%	12.1%	2.00×	4.14
Sporting CP by 1	18.0%	17.0%	20.1%	0.84×	5.90
Draw	10.5%	11.8%	26.6%	0.44×	8.47
FC Arouca by 1	5.2%	7.2%	17.8%	0.41×	13.81
FC Arouca by 2	1.6%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	37.09
FC Arouca by 3+	0.5%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	37.12