SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627
GER-2. Bundesliga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-2 6.5%
- 3-2 5.9%
- 2-1 5.6%
- 3-1 5.1%
- 2-3 4.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 87.7% | Under 2.5 | 12.3% |
| BTTS yes | 84.1% | BTTS no | 15.9% |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ | 93.5% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ | 75.7% |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1+ | 89.8% | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2+ | 66.6% |
Expected goals 2.73 – 2.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 35/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have an estimated 48.5% win probability, against 33.2% for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 and 18.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.73 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.29 for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846.
Why SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Nothing in the data singles out SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 18.3%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 can win
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 carry the stronger rating, 1512 Elo against 1436. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: 46% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: 46% possession, 19.3 shots a match, 20.7 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the model's most likely outcome at 48.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-2 at 6.5%. Confidence 17/100, data quality 35/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.73–2.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 3.39–2.97 | 3-2 5% | 95% | 92% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.