Strasbourg v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 9
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.83 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
56.4%
Draw
24.3%
Nantes win
19.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWLWLDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 16.6 xG
conceded 21
from 20.0 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.82–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.78–1.14 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 1.83 xGNantes 0.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 7' |
 Nantes |
Yassine Benhattab | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mostafa Mohamed |
| 8' |
Nantes |
Francis Coquelin | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 9' |
Nantes |
Kelvin Adou | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Felix Lemarechal |
| 20' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Lemarechal |
| 31' |
Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Lemarechal |
| 35' |
Nantes |
Bahereba Guirassy | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yassine Benhattab |
| 44' |
Nantes |
Bahereba Guirassy | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yassine Benhattab |
| 46' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassine Benhattab |
| 46' |
Nantes |
Nicolas Cozza | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Nantes |
Bahereba Guirassy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 62' |
Strasbourg |
Felix Lemarechal | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 62' |
Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 69' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yassine Benhattab |
| 72' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaël Doukouré |
| 79' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.97 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Guemissongui Ouattara |
| 80' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Goal | Dilane Bakwa |
| 83' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Strasbourg |
Junior Mwanga | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dilane Bakwa |
| 86' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Strasbourg |
Rafael Luís | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diego Moreira |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.97 | 1.13 |
| Junior Mwanga DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Karl-Johan Johnsson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Felix Lemarechal MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Kendry Páez AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Valentín Barco Sub | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.35 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Emanuel Emegha Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.32 | 0.00 | 1.32 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diego Moreira Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.31 |
| Dilane Bakwa Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1.26 |
| Rafael Luís Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Yassine Benhattab MR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Louis Leroux MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bahereba Guirassy ML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Francis Coquelin DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Kwon Hyeok-Kyu Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthis Abline Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hong Hyun-Seok Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef El-Arabi Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |