Sunderland v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 August 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.17
Goals − xG
-0.56 – -1.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
36.6%
Draw
30.2%
Fulham win
33.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.22 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 1.56 xGFulham 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nilson Angulo |
| 14' |
 Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Sunderland |
Thomas Meunier | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Trai Hume |
| 25' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 56' |
Fulham |
Gonzalo García | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sander Berge |
| 57' |
Fulham |
César Palacios | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 66' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 66' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 70' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Enzo Le Fée |
| 74' |
Fulham |
Shea Charles | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sander Berge |
| 74' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Habib Diarra |
| 80' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 83' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 86' |
Fulham |
Gonzalo García | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 86' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Fulham |
Shea Charles | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joachim Andersen |
| 90' |
Fulham |
Gonzalo García | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 92' |
Sunderland |
Romaine Mundle | 0.26 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Granit Xhaka |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Joshua King AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.68 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.64 |
| César Palacios AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Oscar Bobb AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Shea Charles Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ryan Sessegnon Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Kevin Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Le Fée AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| Noah Sadiki DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.50 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.67 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Trai Hume AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.09 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Nilson Angulo AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Habib Diarra Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| Chris Rigg Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romaine Mundle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 |