Toronto v Chicago Fire — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Toronto

19:30

Chicago Fire

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1h before kick-off

Toronto win

36.7%

model 38.4%

Draw

26.7%

model 25.9%

Chicago Fire win

36.7%

model 35.7%

372737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.2%
2-1 8.6%
1-2 8.2%
1-0 7.8%
0-1 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.7%	Under 2.5	45.3%
BTTS yes	58.5%	BTTS no	41.5%
Toronto 1+	76.9%	Toronto 2+	43.1%
Chicago Fire 1+	75.5%	Chicago Fire 2+	41.0%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

56/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

1-4 goals

Multi goal · usually 73%

78.9% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2094 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Toronto corners (+3.5)

Corner handicap

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 6586 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Toronto have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.7% for Chicago Fire and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Toronto and 1.41 for Chicago Fire.

Why Toronto

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.47 to 1.41. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Chicago Fire can win

Chicago Fire carry the stronger rating, 1579 Elo against 1470. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Toronto, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Chicago Fire, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Toronto: 41% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Chicago Fire: 47% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Toronto are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	382636	1.47–1.41	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382637	1.46–1.44	1-1 12%	55%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to win	37.6%	36.4%	45.4%	0.80×	2.75
Chicago Fire to win	36.6%	36.4%	29.9%	1.22×	2.75
Draw	25.8%	27.8%	24.9%	1.12×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto & both teams score	19.9%	17.9%	24.4%	0.73×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	19.8%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
Chicago Fire & both teams score	19.4%	17.9%	17.8%	1.01×	5.58
Toronto & not both score	17.7%	17.9%	21.1%	0.85×	5.58
Chicago Fire & not both score	17.2%	17.9%	12.3%	1.46×	5.58
Draw & not both score	6.0%	8.4%	5.8%	1.43×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto & over 1.5	30.1%	30.8%	37.1%	0.83×	3.24
Chicago Fire & over 1.5	29.2%	26.0%	23.5%	1.11×	3.84
Toronto & under 3.5	24.7%	21.6%	28.3%	0.77×	4.62
Toronto & over 2.5	24.2%	21.6%	30.9%	0.70×	4.62
Chicago Fire & under 3.5	24.2%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.62
Chicago Fire & over 2.5	23.5%	21.6%	20.3%	1.07×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.8%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.1%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Toronto & under 2.5	13.4%	12.9%	14.5%	0.89×	7.77
Toronto & over 3.5	12.9%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.77
Chicago Fire & under 2.5	13.1%	12.9%	9.7%	1.32×	7.77
Chicago Fire & over 3.5	12.4%	12.9%	11.2%	1.15×	7.77
Toronto & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.70
Chicago Fire & under 1.5	7.4%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	5.8%	1.35×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (1UP)	55.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Chicago Fire (1UP)	54.7%	52.9%	—	—	1.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (2UP)	37.6%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Chicago Fire (2UP)	36.6%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Chicago Fire to win 2nd half	33.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Toronto to win 2nd half	31.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (+2.5)	93.2%	92.1%	89.5%	1.03×	1.09
Chicago Fire (+1.5)	81.9%	82.4%	76.7%	1.07×	1.21
Toronto (+0.5)	63.4%	62.9%	70.1%	0.90×	1.59
Chicago Fire (+0.5)	62.4%	62.9%	54.6%	1.15×	1.59
Toronto (-0.5)	37.6%	37.1%	45.4%	0.82×	2.69
Chicago Fire (-0.5)	36.6%	37.1%	29.9%	1.24×	2.70
Toronto (-1.5)	18.1%	17.6%	23.3%	0.76×	5.68
Toronto (-2.5)	6.8%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to concede	76.8%	79.0%	82.0%	0.96×	1.27
Chicago Fire clean sheet	23.2%	21.0%	18.0%	1.17×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to concede in 1st half	46.6%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Chicago Fire clean sheet in 1st half	53.4%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire under 6.5 corners	79.9%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Chicago Fire over 2.5 corners	75.9%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Chicago Fire under 5.5 corners	69.4%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Chicago Fire over 3.5 corners	60.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Chicago Fire under 4.5 corners	55.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Chicago Fire over 4.5 corners	44.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Chicago Fire under 3.5 corners	40.0%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Chicago Fire over 5.5 corners	30.6%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Chicago Fire under 2.5 corners	24.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Chicago Fire over 6.5 corners	20.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire under 3.5 goals	94.2%	92.4%	93.9%	0.98×	1.08
Chicago Fire under 2.5 goals	82.4%	81.4%	83.3%	0.98×	1.23
Chicago Fire over 0.5 goals	76.3%	76.2%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
Chicago Fire under 1.5 goals	57.8%	59.6%	61.3%	0.97×	1.68
Chicago Fire over 1.5 goals	42.2%	40.4%	38.7%	1.04×	2.47
Chicago Fire under 0.5 goals	23.7%	23.8%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
Chicago Fire over 2.5 goals	17.6%	18.6%	16.7%	1.11×	5.39
Chicago Fire over 3.5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	6.1%	1.26×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Chicago Fire under 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Chicago Fire over 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Chicago Fire over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.5%	—	—	9.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (away no bet)	59.3%	57.6%	64.6%	0.89×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.7%	42.4%	35.4%	1.20×	2.36

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire even goals	52.8%	52.8%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Chicago Fire odd goals	47.2%	47.2%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.9%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.1%	16.9%	—	—	5.90

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.6%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.4%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.6%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Toronto to score 2+ in a row	33.5%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Chicago Fire to score 2+ in a row	32.7%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Toronto to score 3+ in a row	10.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
Chicago Fire to score 3+ in a row	10.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.30

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Toronto corners (+2.5)	81.9%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Chicago Fire corners (+3.5)	74.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Toronto corners (+1.5)	74.1%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Chicago Fire corners (+2.5)	66.1%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Chicago Fire corners (+1.5)	56.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Toronto corners (-1.5)	43.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Toronto corners (-2.5)	33.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Chicago Fire corners (-1.5)	25.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Toronto corners (-3.5)	25.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Chicago Fire corners (-2.5)	18.1%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Chicago Fire corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.1%	35.2%	—	—	2.84
12+ corners	31.8%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	60.9%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 10.5 corners	59.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.6%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 9.5 corners	49.4%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	40.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	39.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	31.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 7.5 corners	29.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.4%	10.3%	1.11×	8.74
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.47
0-1	7.4%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.47
1-0	7.5%	7.4%	8.4%	0.89×	13.47
1-2	8.3%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.47
0-0	6.0%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.47
0-2	5.7%	7.4%	3.3%	2.23×	13.47
2-0	5.9%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.47
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.47
0-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.51
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.52
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.50
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.52
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.51
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.52
3-0	2.9%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.51
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.50
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.51
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.52
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.49×	58.52
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.52
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.52
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.52
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.52
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.73×	58.52
Any other score	3.2%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto leading at HT (DNB)	52.9%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Chicago Fire leading at HT (DNB)	47.1%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto or Chicago Fire (12)	74.2%	72.2%	75.1%	0.96×	1.39
Toronto or draw (1X)	63.4%	63.6%	70.1%	0.91×	1.57
Chicago Fire or draw (X2)	62.4%	63.6%	54.6%	1.16×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto or draw at HT	72.7%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Chicago Fire or draw at HT	69.4%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Toronto or Chicago Fire at HT	58.0%	56.6%	—	—	1.77

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto or draw (1UP)	63.4%	71.7%	—	—	1.40
Chicago Fire or draw (1UP)	62.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire or draw in 2nd half	68.1%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Toronto or draw in 2nd half	66.4%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Toronto or Chicago Fire in 2nd half	65.6%	65.7%	—	—	1.52

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	38.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (DNB)	50.7%	50.9%	60.3%	0.84×	1.96
Chicago Fire (DNB)	49.3%	49.1%	39.7%	1.24×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to score first	47.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Chicago Fire to score first	46.6%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.1%	54.9%	61.1%	0.90×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.9%	45.1%	38.9%	1.16×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.0%	44.3%	50.9%	0.87×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	32.5%	34.3%	29.9%	1.15×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.3%	10.3%	1.19×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.4%	9.2%	0.91×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.9%	83.1%	79.5%	1.04×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.1%	16.9%	20.5%	0.83×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.3%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Both score 1st half only	13.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.46
Both score in both halves	6.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.82

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.4%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	42.6%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.4%	42.5%	1.12×	2.11
4-6 goals	30.2%	30.7%	33.1%	0.93×	3.25
0-1 goals	21.0%	22.8%	20.5%	1.11×	4.38
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	54.95

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.9%	34.6%	0.98×	2.95
Chicago Fire to score exactly 2	24.6%	22.4%	22.1%	1.01×	4.46
Chicago Fire to score exactly 0	23.7%	22.4%	26.8%	0.84×	4.46
Chicago Fire to score 3+	17.6%	19.5%	16.7%	1.17×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to score exactly 1	33.9%	32.7%	31.0%	1.05×	3.06
Toronto to score exactly 2	24.8%	23.3%	26.0%	0.90×	4.30
Toronto to score exactly 0	23.2%	23.3%	18.0%	1.29×	4.30
Toronto to score 3+	18.1%	18.9%	25.2%	0.75×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.0%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Toronto leading at HT	30.6%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Chicago Fire leading at HT	27.3%	25.4%	—	—	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto -1: 2	62.4%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Toronto -1: X	19.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Toronto -1: 1	18.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (0:1)	62.4%	61.4%	54.6%	1.12×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.5%	17.8%	22.2%	0.80×	5.62
Toronto (0:1)	18.1%	17.8%	23.3%	0.77×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (0:2)	81.9%	82.8%	76.7%	1.08×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.11
Toronto (0:2)	6.8%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (0:3)	93.2%	92.6%	89.5%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	6.6%	0.36×	42.00
Toronto (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (0:4)	97.9%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	83.43
Toronto (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	83.55

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (1:0)	63.4%	65.1%	70.1%	0.93×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	19.2%	17.1%	16.8%	1.01×	5.87
Chicago Fire (1:0)	17.4%	17.0%	13.2%	1.29×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (2:0)	82.6%	84.6%	86.8%	0.97×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.9%	10.4%	8.7%	1.19×	9.64
Chicago Fire (2:0)	6.5%	6.4%	4.6%	1.40×	15.54

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to concede	76.3%	75.9%	73.2%	1.04×	1.32
Toronto clean sheet	23.7%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.15

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto clean sheet in 1st half	56.2%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Toronto to concede in 1st half	43.8%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto over 2.5 corners	84.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Toronto over 3.5 corners	72.0%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Toronto under 6.5 corners	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Toronto over 4.5 corners	58.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Toronto under 5.5 corners	55.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Toronto over 5.5 corners	44.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Toronto under 4.5 corners	42.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Toronto over 6.5 corners	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Toronto under 3.5 corners	28.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Toronto under 2.5 corners	15.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Toronto under 2.5 goals	81.9%	82.1%	74.8%	1.10×	1.22
Toronto over 0.5 goals	76.8%	77.7%	82.0%	0.95×	1.29
Toronto under 1.5 goals	57.1%	58.8%	48.9%	1.20×	1.70
Toronto over 1.5 goals	42.9%	41.2%	51.1%	0.81×	2.43
Toronto under 0.5 goals	23.2%	22.3%	18.0%	1.24×	4.49
Toronto over 2.5 goals	18.1%	17.9%	25.2%	0.71×	5.59
Toronto over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.94

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 1.5 in 1st half	86.9%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Toronto over 0.5 in 1st half	46.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Toronto under 0.5 in 1st half	53.4%	49.4%	—	—	2.03
Toronto over 1.5 in 1st half	13.1%	10.1%	—	—	9.88

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (home no bet)	58.7%	56.7%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	41.3%	43.3%	45.4%	0.95×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto even goals	52.7%	50.6%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Toronto odd goals	47.3%	49.4%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.1%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
HT 1-0	18.8%	18.8%	—	—	5.32
HT 0-1	17.2%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	5.9%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
HT 0-2	5.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.70
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.72
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.81
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.83
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.3%	—	—	44.00

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto at HT / Toronto at FT	22.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Chicago Fire at HT / Chicago Fire at FT	20.0%	16.9%	—	—	5.93
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Chicago Fire at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Toronto at FT	13.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Toronto at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Chicago Fire at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Toronto at HT / Chicago Fire at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Chicago Fire at HT / Toronto at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to score last	47.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Chicago Fire to score last	46.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Toronto to lead by 1 at any time	55.5%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Chicago Fire to lead by 1 at any time	54.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.5%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Toronto to lead by 2 at any time	24.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Chicago Fire to lead by 2 at any time	24.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.4%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Toronto to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.6%	—	—	15.16
Chicago Fire to lead by 3 at any time	8.5%	6.6%	—	—	15.18

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto most corners	54.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Chicago Fire most corners	35.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Corners level	10.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	83.2%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.2%	78.6%	73.1%	1.08×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.2%	78.6%	75.5%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.6%	72.4%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.2%	63.4%	58.4%	1.09×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.0%	63.4%	57.2%	1.11×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.5%	53.2%	55.9%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.0%	48.7%	48.9%	0.99×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.7%	42.5%	1.15×	2.06
1-2 goals	38.6%	39.2%	34.4%	1.14×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.6%	39.2%	38.8%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.2%	35.4%	33.1%	1.07×	2.83
4-5 goals	25.6%	30.2%	26.1%	1.16×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.0%	14.9%	17.2%	0.87×	6.72
7+ goals	2.9%	2.5%	4.1%	0.62×	39.39

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto never behind	39.3%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Chicago Fire never behind	38.5%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.8%	50.8%	50.2%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.2%	49.2%	49.8%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.2%	82.4%	78.8%	1.05×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	79.0%	77.4%	79.5%	0.97×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.0%	66.2%	62.9%	1.05×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.4%	58.8%	59.9%	0.98×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	44.6%	41.2%	40.1%	1.03×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	33.0%	33.8%	37.1%	0.91×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	21.0%	22.6%	20.5%	1.10×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	16.8%	17.6%	21.2%	0.83×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	11.1%	0.70×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	5.8%	1.32×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.8%	92.5%	87.6%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.9%	75.9%	74.8%	1.02×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.6%	72.6%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.4%	55.5%	51.9%	1.07×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.6%	44.5%	48.1%	0.93×	2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.4%	27.4%	25.5%	1.08×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.1%	24.1%	25.2%	0.95×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.2%	7.5%	12.4%	0.61×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	4.4%	0.62×	36.33

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.9%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.9%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.0%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.0%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.1%	30.8%	—	—	3.25
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.8%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.7%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.2%	20.1%	—	—	4.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire not to score in both halves	74.7%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Toronto not to score in both halves	73.6%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Toronto to score in both halves	26.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Chicago Fire to score in both halves	25.3%	25.9%	—	—	3.87

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.1%	58.3%	61.1%	0.96×	1.71
Only Toronto scores	17.7%	16.1%	21.1%	0.76×	6.22
Only Chicago Fire scores	17.2%	16.1%	12.3%	1.31×	6.22
Neither team scores	6.0%	7.2%	5.8%	1.23×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.6%	22.6%	19.7%	1.15×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.4%	16.0%	1.09×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.0%	12.1%	14.8%	0.82×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.6%	10.2%	0.75×	13.09
6 or more goals	7.4%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.10

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	30.8%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
No goals in 2nd half	18.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire not to win both halves	90.7%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Toronto not to win both halves	90.1%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Toronto to win both halves	9.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.42
Chicago Fire to win both halves	9.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.47

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to win either half	52.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Chicago Fire to win either half	51.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Chicago Fire to win neither half	48.3%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Toronto to win neither half	47.3%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire not to win to nil	82.8%	83.0%	87.7%	0.95×	1.21
Toronto not to win to nil	82.3%	83.0%	78.9%	1.05×	1.21
Toronto to win to nil	17.7%	17.0%	21.1%	0.81×	5.89
Chicago Fire to win to nil	17.2%	17.0%	12.3%	1.39×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.8%	27.8%	24.9%	1.12×	3.60
Toronto by 1	19.5%	17.0%	22.2%	0.76×	5.90
Chicago Fire by 1	19.2%	17.0%	16.8%	1.01×	5.90
Toronto by 2	11.2%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.47
Chicago Fire by 2	10.9%	11.8%	8.7%	1.36×	8.47
Toronto by 3+	6.8%	7.2%	10.5%	0.69×	13.80
Chicago Fire by 3+	6.5%	7.2%	4.6%	1.58×	13.80