Tottenham Hotspur v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 29 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.30 – 0.22
Goals − xG
-0.28 – +1.36
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
60.6%
Draw
19.5%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
19.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.28–1.25 | 2-1 10% | 68% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 2.28 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 6' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 11' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Goal | Pedro Porro |
| 13' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Radu Dragusin | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 34' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | André |
| 38' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 42' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 44' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 47' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 57' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Santiago Bueno | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 60' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 65' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 69' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Craig Dawson | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 70' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Timo Werner |
| 77' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Reguilón |
| 79' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Solanke |
| 85' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Carlos Forbs | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Gomes |
| 86' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 89' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tommy Doyle |
| 91' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Dejan Kulusevski AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Radu Dragusin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| Archie Gray DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Fraser Forster GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Son Heung-Min AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Brennan Johnson AMR | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Yves Bissouma DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Sergio Reguilón Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| James Maddison Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Timo Werner Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Matt Doherty DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Craig Dawson DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Carlos Forbs Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |