Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 6 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 3
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 2
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.27 – +0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
40.8%
Draw
26.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
32.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDWLDLLDD last 10
scored 16
from 15.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–1.43 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.70–1.46 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 1.27 xGEintracht Frankfurt 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Woo-Yeong Jeong |
| 28' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 38' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Oscar Højlund | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 63' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 75' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Livan Burcu |
| 82' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mahmoud Dahoud |
| 86' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Kral |
| 92' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Kral |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Højlund MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Kauã Santos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mario Götze AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Ritsu Doan DMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Farès Chaïbi AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jean Négoce Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aurèle Amenda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Derrick Köhn DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stanley N'Soki DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ilyas Ansah FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Andrej Ilic Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Janik Haberer Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 |