Valencia v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
2.01 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.03 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
31.0%
Draw
28.1%
Getafe win
40.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 13 from 13.5 expected and conceded 13 from 13.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLWDWWDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.5 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–1.00 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 2.97 xGGetafe 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Getafe |
Juan Bernat | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 7' |
 Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 11' |
Getafe |
Omar Alderete | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Getafe |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 15' |
Valencia |
André Almeida | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 21' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | André Almeida |
| 32' |
Valencia |
André Almeida | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diego López |
| 36' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 39' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 44' |
Getafe |
Peter | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Diego Rico |
| 47' |
Getafe |
Peter | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Borja Mayoral |
| 47' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Bernat |
| 54' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.53 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | André Almeida |
| 77' |
Getafe |
Coba da Costa | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Valencia |
Iván Jaime | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iván Jaime |
| 91' |
Getafe |
Borja Mayoral | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Diego Rico |
| 94' |
Getafe |
Coba da Costa | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Mayoral FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Ramón Terrats MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Peter MR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Juan Bernat ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Coba da Costa Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Juan Berrocal Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bertug Yildirim Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismael Bekhoucha Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nyom Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Santiago Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Duro FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.40 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Javier Guerra DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Cristhian Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Gayá DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Pepelu DMC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| André Almeida AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| Diego López AML | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| Dimitri Foulquier DR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luis Rioja AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Rafa Mir Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Jaime Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Enzo Barrenechea Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |