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Vancouver Whitecaps v LA Galaxy — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 10 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Vancouver Whitecaps win
82.8%
model 77.7%
Draw
10.4%
model 14.6%
LA Galaxy win
6.8%
model 7.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (50 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 11.9%
  2. 3-0 10.5%
  3. 2-1 8.8%
  4. 1-0 8.7%
  5. 3-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.565.7% Under 2.534.3%
BTTS yes48.7% BTTS no51.3%
Vancouver Whitecaps 1+92.9% Vancouver Whitecaps 2+74.1%
LA Galaxy 1+52.1% LA Galaxy 2+16.9%

Expected goals 2.65 – 0.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
56/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Vancouver Whitecaps (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 23%
56.8% fair odds 1.76
strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Vancouver Whitecaps carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1429.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Vancouver Whitecaps have an estimated 82.8% win probability, against 10.4% for the draw and 6.8% for LA Galaxy. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.65 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.74 for LA Galaxy.

Why Vancouver Whitecaps

Vancouver Whitecaps carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1429. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why LA Galaxy can win

Nothing in the data singles out LA Galaxy.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vancouver Whitecaps, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for LA Galaxy, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vancouver Whitecaps: 61% possession, 18.0 shots a match, 6.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. LA Galaxy: 46% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Vancouver Whitecaps are the model's most likely outcome at 82.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.9%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.65–0.74 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.47–0.69 2-0 13% 61% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to win 76.1% 78.0% 45.4% 1.72× 1.28
Draw 15.8% 19.3% 24.9% 0.78× 5.18
LA Galaxy to win 8.1% 8.1% 29.9% 0.27× 12.34
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps & not both score 45.5% 42.7% 21.1% 2.02× 2.34
Vancouver Whitecaps & both teams score 30.6% 29.7% 24.4% 1.22× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 11.3% 13.2% 19.1% 0.69× 7.55
Draw & not both score 4.5% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.47
LA Galaxy & both teams score 4.2% 4.9% 17.8% 0.28× 20.48
LA Galaxy & not both score 3.9% 4.9% 12.3% 0.40× 20.49
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps & over 1.5 65.9% 67.0% 37.1% 1.81× 1.49
Vancouver Whitecaps & over 2.5 53.0% 48.7% 30.9% 1.58× 2.05
Vancouver Whitecaps & under 3.5 42.6% 40.3% 28.3% 1.42× 2.48
Vancouver Whitecaps & over 3.5 33.5% 30.9% 17.2% 1.80× 3.24
Vancouver Whitecaps & under 2.5 23.0% 21.6% 14.5% 1.49× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 12.1% 12.9% 16.0% 0.80× 7.78
Draw & under 3.5 12.1% 12.9% 16.0% 0.80× 7.78
Draw & over 1.5 11.3% 12.9% 19.1% 0.67× 7.78
Vancouver Whitecaps & under 1.5 10.1% 12.9% 8.4% 1.54× 7.78
LA Galaxy & under 3.5 6.4% 7.9% 18.8% 0.42× 12.69
LA Galaxy & over 1.5 5.5% 7.9% 23.5% 0.34× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 4.5% 4.8% 5.8% 0.82× 20.93
LA Galaxy & over 2.5 4.5% 4.8% 20.3% 0.24× 20.93
Draw & over 2.5 3.8% 4.8% 8.9% 0.53× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.8% 4.8% 8.9% 0.53× 20.93
LA Galaxy & under 2.5 3.6% 4.8% 9.7% 0.49× 20.93
LA Galaxy & under 1.5 2.6% 4.8% 6.5% 0.73× 20.94
LA Galaxy & over 3.5 1.7% 4.8% 11.2% 0.43× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (1UP) 83.9% 87.3% 1.15
LA Galaxy (1UP) 23.4% 23.1% 4.32
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (2UP) 76.1% 75.9% 1.32
LA Galaxy (2UP) 8.1% 8.7% 11.44
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to win 2nd half 62.0% 59.2% 1.69
2nd half drawn 27.3% 26.3% 3.81
LA Galaxy to win 2nd half 10.7% 11.7% 8.55
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (+0.5) 91.9% 92.1% 70.1% 1.31× 1.09
Vancouver Whitecaps (-0.5) 76.1% 78.5% 45.4% 1.73× 1.28
LA Galaxy (+2.5) 68.0% 68.7% 89.5% 0.77× 1.46
Vancouver Whitecaps (-1.5) 54.0% 52.4% 23.3% 2.25× 1.91
LA Galaxy (+1.5) 46.0% 47.6% 76.7% 0.62× 2.10
Vancouver Whitecaps (-2.5) 32.0% 31.3% 10.5% 2.97× 3.20
LA Galaxy (+0.5) 23.9% 21.5% 54.6% 0.39× 4.64
LA Galaxy (-0.5) 8.1% 7.9% 29.9% 0.26× 12.66
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy to concede 91.6% 91.7% 82.0% 1.12× 1.09
LA Galaxy clean sheet 8.4% 8.3% 18.0% 0.46× 12.05
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy to concede in 1st half 65.5% 69.9% 1.43
LA Galaxy clean sheet in 1st half 34.5% 30.1% 3.33
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy under 6.5 corners 90.1% 89.2% 1.12
LA Galaxy under 5.5 corners 82.6% 80.9% 1.24
LA Galaxy under 4.5 corners 71.2% 72.3% 1.38
LA Galaxy over 2.5 corners 63.1% 61.4% 1.63
LA Galaxy under 3.5 corners 55.5% 56.9% 1.76
LA Galaxy over 3.5 corners 44.5% 43.1% 2.32
LA Galaxy under 2.5 corners 36.9% 38.6% 2.59
LA Galaxy over 4.5 corners 28.8% 27.7% 3.61
LA Galaxy over 5.5 corners 17.4% 19.1% 5.25
LA Galaxy over 6.5 corners 9.9% 10.8% 9.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy under 3.5 goals 99.4% 97.6% 93.9% 1.04× 1.03
LA Galaxy under 2.5 goals 96.7% 97.6% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
LA Galaxy under 1.5 goals 84.7% 81.5% 61.3% 1.33× 1.23
LA Galaxy under 0.5 goals 50.0% 53.7% 26.8% 2.00× 1.86
LA Galaxy over 0.5 goals 50.0% 46.3% 73.2% 0.63× 2.16
LA Galaxy over 1.5 goals 15.3% 18.5% 38.7% 0.48× 5.41
LA Galaxy over 2.5 goals 3.3% 2.4% 16.7% 0.15× 41.02
LA Galaxy over 3.5 goals 0.6% 2.4% 6.1% 0.40× 41.17
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy under 1.5 in 1st half 96.8% 95.8% 1.04
LA Galaxy under 0.5 in 1st half 75.8% 75.5% 1.32
LA Galaxy over 0.5 in 1st half 24.2% 24.5% 4.09
LA Galaxy over 1.5 in 1st half 3.2% 4.2% 23.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (away no bet) 82.8% 82.8% 64.6% 1.28× 1.21
Draw (away no bet) 17.2% 17.2% 35.4% 0.49× 5.80
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy even goals 62.5% 59.1% 53.6% 1.10× 1.69
LA Galaxy odd goals 37.5% 40.9% 46.4% 0.88× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 78.9% 82.2% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 21.1% 17.8% 5.63
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.3% 66.9% 1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals 27.7% 33.1% 3.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 69.9% 62.4% 1.60
Vancouver Whitecaps to score 2+ in a row 65.2% 62.1% 1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row 37.9% 36.3% 2.75
Vancouver Whitecaps to score 3+ in a row 36.8% 36.3% 2.76
LA Galaxy to score 2+ in a row 9.0% 5.6% 17.80
LA Galaxy to score 3+ in a row 1.3% 2.5% 39.34
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (+3.5) 93.5% 88.7% 1.13
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (+2.5) 89.1% 84.2% 1.19
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (+1.5) 82.7% 80.0% 1.25
LA Galaxy corners (+3.5) 69.0% 66.8% 1.50
LA Galaxy corners (+2.5) 58.7% 56.8% 1.76
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (-1.5) 52.5% 52.3% 1.91
LA Galaxy corners (+1.5) 47.5% 47.7% 2.10
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (-2.5) 41.3% 43.2% 2.32
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (-3.5) 31.0% 33.2% 3.01
LA Galaxy corners (-1.5) 17.3% 20.0% 5.00
LA Galaxy corners (-2.5) 10.9% 15.8% 6.32
LA Galaxy corners (-3.5) 6.5% 11.3% 8.82
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.9% 40.7% 2.46
9-11 corners 27.8% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 22.3% 26.3% 3.80
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.0% 79.9% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 77.7% 76.6% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 69.8% 67.9% 1.47
Over 7.5 corners 61.2% 62.7% 1.60
Under 9.5 corners 60.4% 62.7% 1.60
Over 8.5 corners 50.1% 52.2% 1.92
Under 8.5 corners 49.9% 47.8% 2.09
Over 9.5 corners 39.6% 37.3% 2.68
Under 7.5 corners 38.8% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 30.2% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 22.3% 23.4% 4.28
Over 12.5 corners 16.0% 20.1% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 12.9% 11.5% 6.3% 1.82× 8.73
3-0 10.6% 11.5% 4.1% 2.78× 8.73
1-0 10.1% 11.4% 8.4% 1.37× 8.74
Any other score 10.5% 11.4% 4.7% 2.44× 8.73
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.46
1-1 7.5% 7.4% 10.3% 0.72× 13.46
3-1 7.4% 7.4% 4.9% 1.51× 13.46
4-0 6.6% 7.4% 1.3% 5.90× 13.46
0-0 4.5% 1.7% 5.8% 0.29× 58.57
0-1 2.6% 1.7% 6.5% 0.26× 58.58
0-2 1.0% 1.7% 3.3% 0.51× 58.59
0-3 0.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.93× 58.59
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.59
1-2 2.5% 1.7% 7.4% 0.23× 58.58
1-3 0.6% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.59
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.24× 58.59
2-2 3.1% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.57
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.59
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.59
3-2 2.6% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.58
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.59
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.48× 58.59
4-1 4.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.57
4-2 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.58
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.72× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps leading at HT (DNB) 85.4% 85.7% 1.17
LA Galaxy leading at HT (DNB) 14.6% 14.3% 7.02
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw (1X) 91.9% 91.9% 70.1% 1.31× 1.09
Vancouver Whitecaps or LA Galaxy (12) 84.2% 80.7% 75.1% 1.07× 1.24
LA Galaxy or draw (X2) 23.9% 22.0% 54.6% 0.40× 4.55
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw at HT 90.5% 89.5% 1.12
Vancouver Whitecaps or LA Galaxy at HT 65.4% 66.0% 1.52
LA Galaxy or draw at HT 44.1% 42.8% 2.34
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw (1UP) 91.9% 93.4% 1.07
LA Galaxy or draw (1UP) 23.9% 24.8% 4.03
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw in 2nd half 89.3% 88.3% 1.13
Vancouver Whitecaps or LA Galaxy in 2nd half 72.7% 73.7% 1.36
LA Galaxy or draw in 2nd half 38.0% 40.8% 2.45
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 52.1% 50.1% 2.00
Neither half drawn 47.9% 49.9% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (DNB) 90.4% 92.9% 60.3% 1.54× 1.08
LA Galaxy (DNB) 9.6% 7.1% 39.7% 0.18× 14.15
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to score first 74.6% 75.5% 1.33
LA Galaxy to score first 20.9% 22.4% 4.46
No goal scored 4.5% 4.4% 22.85
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 53.9% 51.5% 38.9% 1.32× 1.94
Both teams to score 46.1% 48.5% 61.1% 0.79× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 38.5% 38.5% 50.9% 0.76× 2.60
Not both score & under 2.5 31.2% 34.4% 29.9% 1.15× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 22.7% 27.7% 9.2% 3.02× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 7.5% 8.4% 10.3% 0.81× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.2% 85.7% 79.5% 1.08× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.8% 14.3% 20.5% 0.70× 6.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.2% 74.6% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.8% 25.4% 3.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 62.4% 66.7% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 21.7% 21.1% 4.74
Both score 1st half only 11.8% 10.5% 9.55
Both score in both halves 4.1% 5.0% 20.09
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.1% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.9% 17.1% 5.85
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 62.1% 58.9% 1.70
A half without a goal 37.9% 41.1% 2.44
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.8% 42.1% 42.5% 0.99× 2.37
4-6 goals 34.8% 30.7% 33.1% 0.93× 3.26
0-1 goals 17.3% 20.2% 20.5% 0.99× 4.94
7+ goals 4.2% 1.8% 4.1% 0.44× 54.99
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy to score exactly 0 50.0% 47.2% 26.8% 1.76× 2.12
LA Galaxy to score exactly 1 34.7% 33.9% 34.6% 0.98× 2.95
LA Galaxy to score exactly 2 12.0% 12.8% 22.1% 0.58× 7.81
LA Galaxy to score 3+ 3.3% 4.5% 16.7% 0.27× 22.25
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to score 3+ 44.9% 35.2% 25.2% 1.39× 2.85
Vancouver Whitecaps to score exactly 2 25.8% 26.5% 26.0% 1.02× 3.77
Vancouver Whitecaps to score exactly 1 20.9% 23.3% 31.0% 0.75× 4.30
Vancouver Whitecaps to score exactly 0 8.4% 10.3% 18.0% 0.57× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps leading at HT 55.9% 57.2% 1.75
Draw at HT 34.6% 34.0% 2.94
LA Galaxy leading at HT 9.5% 10.5% 9.52
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps -1: 1 54.0% 52.1% 1.92
Vancouver Whitecaps -1: 2 23.9% 23.6% 4.24
Vancouver Whitecaps -1: X 22.0% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:1) 54.0% 51.2% 23.3% 2.20× 1.95
LA Galaxy (0:1) 23.9% 24.3% 54.6% 0.44× 4.11
Draw (0:1) 22.0% 24.3% 22.2% 1.09× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (0:2) 46.0% 51.1% 76.7% 0.67× 1.96
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:2) 32.0% 28.6% 10.5% 2.71× 3.50
Draw (0:2) 22.1% 20.3% 12.8% 1.58× 4.92
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (0:3) 68.0% 72.0% 89.5% 0.80× 1.39
Draw (0:3) 16.1% 16.0% 6.6% 2.41× 6.23
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:3) 15.9% 16.0% 4.0% 4.00× 6.24
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy (0:4) 84.1% 87.2% 96.0% 0.91× 1.15
Draw (0:4) 9.2% 4.7% 2.1% 2.26× 21.45
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:4) 6.8% 4.6% 2.1% 2.24× 21.67
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (1:0) 91.9% 92.8% 70.1% 1.32× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 5.9% 6.9% 16.8% 0.41× 14.51
LA Galaxy (1:0) 2.2% 3.2% 13.2% 0.24× 31.75
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (2:0) 97.9% 96.9% 86.8% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.7% 2.3% 8.7% 0.26× 44.30
LA Galaxy (2:0) 0.4% 2.3% 4.6% 0.49× 44.39
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.6% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 28.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.3% 24.2% 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet 50.0% 53.1% 26.8% 1.98× 1.88
Vancouver Whitecaps to concede 50.0% 46.9% 73.2% 0.64× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet in 1st half 75.8% 76.9% 1.30
Vancouver Whitecaps to concede in 1st half 24.2% 23.1% 4.34
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps over 2.5 corners 83.7% 81.3% 1.23
Vancouver Whitecaps over 3.5 corners 70.9% 71.5% 1.40
Vancouver Whitecaps under 6.5 corners 68.9% 67.8% 1.48
Vancouver Whitecaps under 5.5 corners 57.0% 57.4% 1.74
Vancouver Whitecaps over 4.5 corners 56.7% 57.4% 1.74
Vancouver Whitecaps under 4.5 corners 43.3% 42.6% 2.35
Vancouver Whitecaps over 5.5 corners 43.0% 42.6% 2.35
Vancouver Whitecaps over 6.5 corners 31.1% 32.2% 3.10
Vancouver Whitecaps under 3.5 corners 29.1% 28.5% 3.51
Vancouver Whitecaps under 2.5 corners 16.3% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps over 0.5 goals 91.6% 92.2% 82.0% 1.12× 1.08
Vancouver Whitecaps under 3.5 goals 76.4% 77.7% 90.6% 0.86× 1.29
Vancouver Whitecaps over 1.5 goals 70.7% 74.2% 51.1% 1.45× 1.35
Vancouver Whitecaps under 2.5 goals 55.1% 58.8% 74.8% 0.79× 1.70
Vancouver Whitecaps over 2.5 goals 44.9% 41.2% 25.2% 1.64× 2.43
Vancouver Whitecaps under 1.5 goals 29.3% 25.8% 48.9% 0.53× 3.88
Vancouver Whitecaps over 3.5 goals 23.6% 22.3% 9.4% 2.38× 4.48
Vancouver Whitecaps under 0.5 goals 8.4% 7.8% 18.0% 0.43× 12.88
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps under 1.5 in 1st half 71.3% 79.2% 1.26
Vancouver Whitecaps over 0.5 in 1st half 65.5% 68.5% 1.46
Vancouver Whitecaps under 0.5 in 1st half 34.5% 31.5% 3.18
Vancouver Whitecaps over 1.5 in 1st half 28.7% 20.8% 4.80
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 66.2% 63.7% 45.4% 1.40× 1.57
LA Galaxy (home no bet) 33.8% 36.3% 54.6% 0.66× 2.76
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps even goals 50.4% 50.6% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Vancouver Whitecaps odd goals 49.6% 49.4% 49.0% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 27.8% 28.7% 3.49
HT 0-0 26.2% 28.6% 3.50
HT 2-0 14.8% 11.1% 9.02
Any other HT score 9.5% 7.1% 14.07
HT 1-1 7.8% 7.1% 14.10
HT 0-1 7.2% 7.1% 14.11
HT 2-1 4.1% 2.2% 44.62
HT 0-2 1.0% 2.2% 44.86
HT 1-2 1.1% 2.2% 44.86
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.2% 44.90
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps at HT / Vancouver Whitecaps at FT 52.0% 54.6% 1.83
Draw at HT / Vancouver Whitecaps at FT 21.2% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.8% 6.1% 16.50
LA Galaxy at HT / LA Galaxy at FT 3.9% 3.4% 29.13
Draw at HT / LA Galaxy at FT 3.5% 3.4% 29.14
Vancouver Whitecaps at HT / Draw at FT 3.2% 3.4% 29.16
LA Galaxy at HT / Vancouver Whitecaps at FT 2.8% 3.4% 29.17
LA Galaxy at HT / Draw at FT 2.8% 3.4% 29.17
Vancouver Whitecaps at HT / LA Galaxy at FT 0.7% 3.4% 29.26
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to score last 74.6% 73.0% 1.37
LA Galaxy to score last 20.8% 25.9% 3.86
No goal scored 4.5% 4.4% 22.85
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.5% 95.6% 1.05
Vancouver Whitecaps to lead by 1 at any time 83.9% 87.4% 1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 63.8% 61.5% 1.63
Vancouver Whitecaps to lead by 2 at any time 59.4% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 35.7% 34.7% 2.88
Vancouver Whitecaps to lead by 3 at any time 34.9% 29.5% 3.39
LA Galaxy to lead by 1 at any time 23.4% 19.6% 5.10
LA Galaxy to lead by 2 at any time 4.7% 1.6% 61.17
LA Galaxy to lead by 3 at any time 0.8% 1.5% 65.26
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps most corners 63.8% 58.8% 1.70
LA Galaxy most corners 25.9% 32.0% 3.13
Corners level 10.3% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.4% 87.4% 83.2% 1.05× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.5% 78.6% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.2% 72.4% 73.1% 0.99× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.6% 72.4% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.5% 63.5% 58.4% 1.09× 1.58
3-6 goals 57.1% 59.2% 55.9% 1.06× 1.69
1-3 goals 56.5% 59.2% 57.2% 1.04× 1.69
3-5 goals 51.2% 53.1% 48.9% 1.09× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.8% 43.6% 42.5% 1.03× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.0% 39.2% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
4-6 goals 34.8% 35.4% 33.1% 1.07× 2.83
1-2 goals 34.2% 35.4% 34.4% 1.03× 2.83
4-5 goals 28.9% 30.2% 26.1% 1.16× 3.31
5-6 goals 17.1% 18.6% 17.2% 1.08× 5.37
7+ goals 4.2% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.39
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps never behind 72.1% 77.0% 1.30
LA Galaxy never behind 11.6% 12.6% 7.92
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.3% 50.8% 50.2% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.7% 49.2% 49.8% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.5% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.5% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.5% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.5% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.5% 95.5% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.9% 87.7% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 82.7% 82.4% 79.5% 1.04× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 78.7% 77.4% 78.8% 0.98× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 61.3% 61.7% 59.9% 1.03× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 61.1% 61.7% 62.9% 0.98× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 38.9% 38.3% 37.1% 1.03× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 38.7% 38.3% 40.1% 0.95× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 21.3% 22.6% 21.2% 1.07× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 17.3% 17.6% 20.5% 0.86× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 10.1% 12.3% 11.1% 1.11× 8.12
Under 0.5 goals 4.5% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.6% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.6% 86.7% 87.6% 0.99× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 78.0% 75.9% 74.5% 1.02× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.2% 72.6% 74.8% 0.97× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.1% 51.8% 48.1% 1.08× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.9% 48.2% 51.9% 0.93× 2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.8% 27.4% 25.2% 1.09× 3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.0% 24.1% 25.5% 0.94× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.4% 13.3% 12.4% 1.07× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.4% 2.8% 4.4% 0.62× 36.31
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.8% 86.5% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.8% 71.1% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.2% 63.6% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 38.8% 36.4% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.2% 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.2% 13.5% 7.43
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.8% 83.0% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.4% 77.9% 1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.5% 53.1% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.5% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.6% 22.1% 4.53
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.2% 17.0% 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy not to score in both halves 91.8% 90.1% 1.11
Vancouver Whitecaps not to score in both halves 50.5% 56.4% 1.77
Vancouver Whitecaps to score in both halves 49.5% 43.6% 2.29
LA Galaxy to score in both halves 8.2% 9.9% 10.13
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.1% 50.3% 61.1% 0.82× 1.99
Only Vancouver Whitecaps scores 45.5% 50.3% 21.1% 2.39× 1.99
Neither team scores 4.5% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.69
Only LA Galaxy scores 3.9% 4.6% 12.3% 0.38× 21.72
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 22.9% 0.99× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 21.5% 22.6% 19.7% 1.15× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 17.7% 17.5% 16.0% 1.09× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.7% 12.1% 14.8% 0.82× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 11.2% 12.1% 10.2% 1.18× 8.29
6 or more goals 10.1% 12.1% 11.1% 1.09× 8.30
Exactly 0 goals 4.5% 4.4% 5.8% 0.76× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.5% 51.1% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 29.2% 29.7% 3.37
No goals in 2nd half 16.2% 16.8% 5.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy not to win both halves 99.0% 97.2% 1.03
Vancouver Whitecaps not to win both halves 65.2% 69.6% 1.44
Vancouver Whitecaps to win both halves 34.8% 30.4% 3.29
LA Galaxy to win both halves 1.0% 2.8% 36.34
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to win either half 83.2% 83.1% 1.20
LA Galaxy to win neither half 80.8% 82.7% 1.21
LA Galaxy to win either half 19.2% 17.3% 5.78
Vancouver Whitecaps to win neither half 16.8% 16.9% 5.92
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Galaxy not to win to nil 96.1% 96.1% 87.7% 1.10× 1.04
Vancouver Whitecaps not to win to nil 54.5% 54.5% 78.9% 0.69× 1.83
Vancouver Whitecaps to win to nil 45.5% 45.5% 21.1% 2.16× 2.20
LA Galaxy to win to nil 3.9% 3.9% 12.3% 0.32× 25.82
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps by 3+ 32.0% 27.6% 10.5% 2.62× 3.62
Vancouver Whitecaps by 1 22.0% 24.1% 22.2% 1.09× 4.14
Vancouver Whitecaps by 2 22.1% 24.1% 12.8% 1.88× 4.14
Draw 15.8% 16.9% 24.9% 0.68× 5.90
LA Galaxy by 1 5.9% 7.2% 16.8% 0.43× 13.81
LA Galaxy by 2 1.7% 2.7% 8.7% 0.31× 37.01
LA Galaxy by 3+ 0.4% 2.7% 4.6% 0.59× 37.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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