Vélez Sarsfield v Estudiantes de La Plata — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Vélez Sarsfield

20:15

Estudiantes de La Plata

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 2h before kick-off

Vélez Sarsfield win

37.3%

model 36.0%

Draw

31.4%

model 32.1%

Estudiantes de La Plata win

31.4%

model 31.9%

373131

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-0 14.7%
1-0 14.0%
1-1 13.9%
0-1 13.0%
2-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	30.9%	Under 2.5	69.1%
BTTS yes	39.0%	BTTS no	61.0%
Vélez Sarsfield 1+	63.6%	Vélez Sarsfield 2+	26.8%
Estudiantes de La Plata 1+	60.7%	Estudiantes de La Plata 2+	24.0%

Expected goals 1.01 – 0.94. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

21/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 corners

Home corners O/U

81.3% fair odds 1.23

moderate signal · 4471 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Estudiantes de La Plata not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Vélez Sarsfield.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vélez Sarsfield have an estimated 37.3% win probability, against 31.4% for the draw and 31.4% for Estudiantes de La Plata. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.01 for Vélez Sarsfield and 0.94 for Estudiantes de La Plata.

Why Vélez Sarsfield

Nothing in the data singles out Vélez Sarsfield.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.4%. A combined 1.95 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.01 to 0.94. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Estudiantes de La Plata can win

Nothing in the data singles out Estudiantes de La Plata.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vélez Sarsfield, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Estudiantes de La Plata, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vélez Sarsfield: 54% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Estudiantes de La Plata: 64% possession, 18.6 shots a match, 8.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Vélez Sarsfield are the model's most likely outcome at 37.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-0 at 14.7%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	363232	1.01–0.94	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	383427	0.97–0.76	0-0 18%	25%	33%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to win	38.5%	36.4%	41.7%	0.87×	2.74
Draw	34.2%	30.4%	30.6%	0.99×	3.29
Estudiantes de La Plata to win	27.3%	27.9%	27.8%	1.00×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & not both score	28.5%	25.2%	27.8%	0.91×	3.97
Estudiantes de La Plata & not both score	20.0%	17.9%	17.2%	1.04×	5.58
Draw & not both score	18.1%	17.9%	14.8%	1.21×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	16.1%	17.9%	15.9%	1.12×	5.59
Vélez Sarsfield & both teams score	10.0%	13.3%	14.1%	0.94×	7.55
Estudiantes de La Plata & both teams score	7.3%	8.4%	10.7%	0.79×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & under 3.5	34.0%	30.9%	34.9%	0.89×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	31.6%	30.8%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Draw & under 3.5	31.6%	30.8%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Vélez Sarsfield & under 2.5	25.0%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Estudiantes de La Plata & under 3.5	24.6%	21.6%	23.6%	0.92×	4.62
Vélez Sarsfield & over 1.5	21.7%	21.6%	27.6%	0.78×	4.62
Draw & under 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
Estudiantes de La Plata & under 2.5	18.3%	18.0%	14.7%	1.23×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & under 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	14.2%	1.27×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.1%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & over 2.5	13.5%	12.9%	18.2%	0.71×	7.77
Estudiantes de La Plata & over 1.5	14.1%	12.9%	17.5%	0.73×	7.77
Estudiantes de La Plata & under 1.5	13.2%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.77
Estudiantes de La Plata & over 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.70
Vélez Sarsfield & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	7.0%	0.68×	20.92
Draw & over 2.5	2.6%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	2.6%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.93
Estudiantes de La Plata & over 3.5	2.6%	4.8%	4.2%	1.13×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (1UP)	49.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Estudiantes de La Plata (1UP)	39.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2UP)	38.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Estudiantes de La Plata (2UP)	27.3%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	46.5%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Vélez Sarsfield to win 2nd half	29.8%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Estudiantes de La Plata to win 2nd half	23.6%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (+2.5)	95.9%	96.3%	95.0%	1.01×	1.04
Estudiantes de La Plata (+1.5)	85.4%	88.5%	82.5%	1.07×	1.13
Vélez Sarsfield (+0.5)	72.7%	73.7%	72.2%	1.02×	1.36
Estudiantes de La Plata (+0.5)	61.5%	62.9%	58.3%	1.08×	1.59
Vélez Sarsfield (-0.5)	38.5%	37.1%	41.7%	0.89×	2.69
Estudiantes de La Plata (-0.5)	27.3%	26.3%	27.8%	0.95×	3.80
Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)	14.6%	11.5%	17.5%	0.66×	8.68
Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)	4.1%	3.7%	5.0%	0.74×	26.79

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata to concede	61.9%	67.2%	68.1%	0.99×	1.49
Estudiantes de La Plata clean sheet	38.1%	32.8%	31.9%	1.03×	3.05

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata clean sheet in 1st half	66.0%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Estudiantes de La Plata to concede in 1st half	34.0%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata under 6.5 corners	86.3%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Estudiantes de La Plata under 5.5 corners	77.3%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Estudiantes de La Plata over 2.5 corners	69.5%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Estudiantes de La Plata under 4.5 corners	64.6%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Estudiantes de La Plata over 3.5 corners	51.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Estudiantes de La Plata under 3.5 corners	48.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Estudiantes de La Plata over 4.5 corners	35.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Estudiantes de La Plata under 2.5 corners	30.5%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Estudiantes de La Plata over 5.5 corners	22.7%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Estudiantes de La Plata over 6.5 corners	13.7%	15.1%	—	—	6.62

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata under 3.5 goals	99.2%	97.6%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Estudiantes de La Plata under 2.5 goals	95.8%	97.5%	93.3%	1.05×	1.03
Estudiantes de La Plata under 1.5 goals	82.2%	81.4%	78.2%	1.04×	1.23
Estudiantes de La Plata over 0.5 goals	53.4%	53.7%	57.6%	0.93×	1.86
Estudiantes de La Plata under 0.5 goals	46.6%	46.3%	42.4%	1.09×	2.16
Estudiantes de La Plata over 1.5 goals	17.8%	18.6%	21.8%	0.85×	5.39
Estudiantes de La Plata over 2.5 goals	4.2%	2.5%	6.7%	0.37×	40.75
Estudiantes de La Plata over 3.5 goals	0.8%	2.4%	1.1%	2.13×	40.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata under 1.5 in 1st half	96.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Estudiantes de La Plata under 0.5 in 1st half	73.7%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Estudiantes de La Plata over 0.5 in 1st half	26.3%	31.3%	—	—	3.20
Estudiantes de La Plata over 1.5 in 1st half	3.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.26

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (away no bet)	52.9%	51.3%	57.7%	0.89×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	47.1%	48.7%	42.3%	1.15×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata even goals	60.9%	59.0%	58.4%	1.01×	1.70
Estudiantes de La Plata odd goals	39.1%	41.0%	41.6%	0.98×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	95.7%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals	4.4%	4.2%	—	—	23.56

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	61.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Not both halves under 1.5	38.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	33.7%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Vélez Sarsfield to score 2+ in a row	21.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Estudiantes de La Plata to score 2+ in a row	14.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Either team to score 3+ in a row	8.2%	5.7%	—	—	17.69
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+ in a row	5.4%	5.6%	—	—	17.92
Estudiantes de La Plata to score 3+ in a row	2.8%	2.6%	—	—	38.68

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+3.5)	90.3%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+2.5)	84.5%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+1.5)	76.7%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (+3.5)	76.0%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (+2.5)	66.6%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (+1.5)	55.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-1.5)	44.3%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-2.5)	33.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-3.5)	24.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (-1.5)	23.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (-2.5)	15.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.01
Estudiantes de La Plata corners (-3.5)	9.7%	11.4%	—	—	8.80

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.3%	40.7%	—	—	2.46
9-11 corners	28.3%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	22.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.1%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 11.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	61.9%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 9.5 corners	60.0%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 8.5 corners	50.7%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 8.5 corners	49.3%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 9.5 corners	40.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 7.5 corners	38.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 10.5 corners	30.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	15.9%	20.1%	—	—	4.96

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	18.1%	13.8%	14.8%	0.93×	7.26
1-0	16.8%	13.8%	14.2%	0.97×	7.27
0-1	13.2%	11.5%	10.3%	1.11×	8.73
1-1	13.5%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.73
2-0	8.3%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.47
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	4.5%	1.66×	13.47
2-1	6.3%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.47
1-2	5.0%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.50
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.52
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.98×	58.52
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.52
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.52
2-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.51
2-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.52
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.90×	58.52
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.51
3-1	2.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.51
3-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.52
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.52
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	14.90×	58.52
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.52
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.52
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.52
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.52
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.52
Any other score	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT (DNB)	59.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Estudiantes de La Plata leading at HT (DNB)	41.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1X)	72.7%	72.1%	72.2%	1.00×	1.39
Vélez Sarsfield or Estudiantes de La Plata (12)	65.8%	69.6%	69.4%	1.00×	1.44
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw (X2)	61.5%	63.6%	58.3%	1.09×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw at HT	81.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw at HT	73.5%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Vélez Sarsfield or Estudiantes de La Plata at HT	44.8%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1UP)	72.7%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw (1UP)	61.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw in 2nd half	76.4%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Estudiantes de La Plata or draw in 2nd half	70.2%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Vélez Sarsfield or Estudiantes de La Plata in 2nd half	53.5%	54.4%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	75.7%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Neither half drawn	24.3%	23.7%	—	—	4.21

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (DNB)	58.5%	58.3%	60.1%	0.97×	1.72
Estudiantes de La Plata (DNB)	41.5%	41.7%	39.9%	1.05×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score first	45.7%	45.6%	—	—	2.20
Estudiantes de La Plata to score first	36.1%	32.6%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	18.1%	18.3%	—	—	5.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	66.6%	58.2%	59.5%	0.98×	1.72
Both teams to score	33.4%	41.8%	40.5%	1.03×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	61.5%	50.0%	52.9%	0.95×	2.00
Both score & over 2.5	20.0%	21.8%	27.2%	0.80×	4.59
Both score & under 2.5	13.5%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	5.1%	8.4%	6.8%	1.24×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	95.5%	91.7%	94.2%	0.97×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	4.5%	8.3%	5.8%	1.42×	12.05

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	84.3%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	15.7%	25.4%	—	—	3.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	76.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Both score 2nd half only	14.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Both score 1st half only	7.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.77
Both score in both halves	1.4%	4.8%	—	—	20.87

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	91.0%	91.2%	—	—	1.10
Both teams to score by HT	9.0%	8.8%	—	—	11.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	67.2%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
A goal in each half	32.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	48.1%	47.4%	39.1%	1.21×	2.11
2-3 goals	42.2%	42.1%	47.4%	0.89×	2.38
4-6 goals	9.5%	7.6%	13.3%	0.57×	13.11
7+ goals	0.2%	1.8%	0.5%	3.95×	55.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata to score exactly 0	46.6%	42.9%	42.4%	1.01×	2.33
Estudiantes de La Plata to score exactly 1	35.6%	36.0%	35.9%	1.00×	2.78
Estudiantes de La Plata to score exactly 2	13.6%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.81
Estudiantes de La Plata to score 3+	4.2%	4.5%	6.7%	0.68×	22.02

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 0	38.1%	35.6%	31.9%	1.12×	2.81
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.6%	36.6%	0.97×	2.81
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 2	17.7%	18.9%	21.8%	0.87×	5.30
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+	7.4%	10.3%	10.0%	1.03×	9.72

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	55.2%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT	26.5%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Estudiantes de La Plata leading at HT	18.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 2	61.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Vélez Sarsfield -1: X	23.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 1	14.6%	14.0%	—	—	7.14

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:1)	61.5%	61.4%	58.3%	1.05×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	23.9%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.12
Vélez Sarsfield (0:1)	14.6%	13.9%	17.5%	0.79×	7.21

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:2)	85.4%	86.9%	82.5%	1.05×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	10.5%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.12
Vélez Sarsfield (0:2)	4.1%	3.8%	5.0%	0.75×	26.49

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:3)	95.9%	96.6%	95.0%	1.02×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.07
Vélez Sarsfield (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	1.7%	1.38×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.3%	0.95×	83.53
Vélez Sarsfield (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.6%	2.09×	83.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (1:0)	72.7%	72.5%	72.2%	1.00×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	18.8%	17.0%	18.7%	0.91×	5.87
Estudiantes de La Plata (1:0)	8.5%	6.9%	9.2%	0.75×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2:0)	91.5%	93.9%	90.8%	1.03×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.6%	6.4%	6.3%	1.02×	15.53
Estudiantes de La Plata (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	3.0%	0.76×	44.39

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Halves equal	33.8%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
1st half highest scoring	25.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to concede	53.4%	53.1%	57.6%	0.92×	1.88
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	46.6%	46.9%	42.4%	1.10×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 1st half	73.7%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 1st half	26.3%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 corners	81.2%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Vélez Sarsfield under 6.5 corners	73.7%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 corners	67.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Vélez Sarsfield under 5.5 corners	62.1%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Vélez Sarsfield over 4.5 corners	52.0%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Vélez Sarsfield under 4.5 corners	48.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Vélez Sarsfield over 5.5 corners	37.9%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 corners	32.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Vélez Sarsfield over 6.5 corners	26.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 corners	18.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.35

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 goals	98.3%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	90.0%	1.02×	1.08
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 goals	74.9%	74.2%	68.3%	1.09×	1.35
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 goals	61.9%	63.4%	68.1%	0.93×	1.58
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 goals	38.1%	36.6%	31.9%	1.15×	2.73
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 goals	25.1%	25.8%	31.7%	0.81×	3.88
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	10.0%	0.78×	12.92
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 goals	1.7%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.51

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 1st half	93.4%	95.4%	—	—	1.05
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 1st half	66.0%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 1st half	34.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 1st half	6.6%	4.6%	—	—	21.84

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.6%	56.7%	52.5%	1.08×	1.77
Estudiantes de La Plata (home no bet)	44.4%	43.3%	47.5%	0.91×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield even goals	57.3%	55.5%	55.7%	1.00×	1.80
Vélez Sarsfield odd goals	42.7%	44.5%	44.3%	1.01×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	48.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	6.2%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.75
HT 0-2	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.90
HT 2-1	1.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.97
Any other HT score	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.98
HT 1-2	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	44.00
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.3%	—	—	44.06

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	26.0%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	21.0%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Estudiantes de La Plata at HT / Estudiantes de La Plata at FT	13.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Estudiantes de La Plata at FT	12.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Estudiantes de La Plata at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Estudiantes de La Plata at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.95
Estudiantes de La Plata at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score last	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Estudiantes de La Plata to score last	36.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
No goal scored	18.1%	13.0%	—	—	7.70

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	81.9%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 1 at any time	49.4%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Estudiantes de La Plata to lead by 1 at any time	39.0%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	28.7%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 2 at any time	17.7%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Estudiantes de La Plata to lead by 2 at any time	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.64
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	7.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.24
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 3 at any time	4.8%	1.6%	—	—	61.67
Estudiantes de La Plata to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	—	—	64.16

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield most corners	55.8%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Estudiantes de La Plata most corners	33.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	11.1%	10.6%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.0%	83.5%	84.3%	0.99×	1.20
1-4 goals	78.7%	78.6%	80.0%	0.98×	1.27
1-3 goals	72.1%	72.4%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
1-2 goals	56.8%	59.2%	51.5%	1.15×	1.69
2-6 goals	51.7%	53.2%	60.6%	0.88×	1.88
2-5 goals	51.1%	53.2%	60.0%	0.89×	1.88
2-4 goals	48.8%	48.7%	55.7%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	42.2%	43.6%	47.4%	0.92×	2.30
3-6 goals	24.8%	24.5%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09
3-5 goals	24.2%	24.5%	32.9%	0.74×	4.09
3-4 goals	21.9%	24.5%	28.7%	0.85×	4.09
4-6 goals	9.5%	8.8%	13.3%	0.66×	11.42
4-5 goals	8.9%	8.8%	12.7%	0.69×	11.42
5-6 goals	2.9%	2.5%	4.9%	0.51×	39.38
7+ goals	0.2%	2.5%	0.5%	5.52×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield never behind	42.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Estudiantes de La Plata never behind	32.5%	35.8%	—	—	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.7%	50.8%	49.1%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.3%	49.2%	50.9%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	62.0%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 1st half	38.0%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	56.9%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Odd goals in 2nd half	43.1%	39.6%	—	—	2.52

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.1%	95.5%	99.0%	0.97×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	96.9%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	86.4%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	81.9%	82.4%	85.2%	0.97×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	75.0%	72.5%	66.2%	1.10×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	51.9%	52.5%	60.9%	0.86×	1.91
Under 1.5 goals	48.1%	47.6%	39.1%	1.22×	2.10
Over 2.5 goals	25.0%	27.5%	33.8%	0.81×	3.64
Under 0.5 goals	18.1%	17.6%	14.8%	1.19×	5.67
Over 3.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	13.6%	0.57×	12.93
Over 4.5 goals	3.1%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.24
Over 5.5 goals	0.9%	4.5%	1.0%	4.35×	22.28

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.8%	97.3%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.1%	97.3%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	96.6%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	88.5%	86.8%	82.9%	1.05×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.8%	67.4%	53.6%	1.26×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.2%	32.6%	46.4%	0.70×	3.06
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	11.5%	13.3%	17.1%	0.77×	7.55
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	3.4%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	36.32
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	0.9%	2.7%	1.1%	2.55×	36.39
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.2%	2.7%	0.5%	5.95×	36.42

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	96.3%	96.9%	—	—	1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half	83.7%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	51.3%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Under 0.5 in 1st half	48.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Over 1.5 in 1st half	16.3%	13.6%	—	—	7.37
Over 2.5 in 1st half	3.7%	3.1%	—	—	32.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	91.8%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	8.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata not to score in both halves	90.3%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Vélez Sarsfield not to score in both halves	85.6%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Vélez Sarsfield to score in both halves	14.4%	14.1%	—	—	7.09
Estudiantes de La Plata to score in both halves	9.7%	10.2%	—	—	9.78

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	33.4%	33.4%	40.5%	0.82×	3.00
Only Vélez Sarsfield scores	28.5%	26.2%	27.8%	0.94×	3.82
Only Estudiantes de La Plata scores	20.0%	16.1%	17.2%	0.94×	6.21
Neither team scores	18.1%	16.1%	14.8%	1.09×	6.22

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	29.9%	25.0%	24.4%	1.02×	4.01
Exactly 2 goals	26.9%	24.9%	27.2%	0.92×	4.01
Exactly 0 goals	18.1%	17.4%	14.8%	1.18×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	15.3%	17.4%	20.3%	0.86×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	6.6%	7.6%	8.5%	0.90×	13.10
Exactly 5 goals	2.3%	4.4%	4.4%	1.01×	22.70
6 or more goals	0.9%	4.4%	1.0%	4.26×	22.73

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 2nd half	36.6%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
1 goal in 2nd half	36.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half	26.8%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata not to win both halves	95.6%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Vélez Sarsfield not to win both halves	92.1%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Vélez Sarsfield to win both halves	7.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
Estudiantes de La Plata to win both halves	4.4%	2.8%	—	—	35.20

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata to win neither half	62.4%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
Vélez Sarsfield to win neither half	51.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Vélez Sarsfield to win either half	48.3%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Estudiantes de La Plata to win either half	37.6%	34.8%	—	—	2.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estudiantes de La Plata not to win to nil	80.0%	83.0%	82.8%	1.00×	1.21
Vélez Sarsfield not to win to nil	71.5%	75.3%	72.2%	1.04×	1.33
Vélez Sarsfield to win to nil	28.5%	24.7%	27.8%	0.89×	4.04
Estudiantes de La Plata to win to nil	20.0%	17.0%	17.2%	0.99×	5.88

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	34.2%	27.6%	30.6%	0.90×	3.62
Vélez Sarsfield by 1	23.9%	24.2%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
Estudiantes de La Plata by 1	18.8%	17.0%	18.7%	0.91×	5.90
Vélez Sarsfield by 2	10.5%	11.8%	12.6%	0.94×	8.47
Estudiantes de La Plata by 2	6.6%	7.2%	6.3%	1.15×	13.80
Vélez Sarsfield by 3+	4.1%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	37.01
Estudiantes de La Plata by 3+	1.9%	2.7%	3.0%	0.90×	37.08