VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 6
On target
8 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.93 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.43 – +0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
43.7%
Draw
23.0%
Bayer Leverkusen win
33.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–1.66 | 1-1 9% | 70% | 70% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 3.43 xGBayer Leverkusen 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christian Kofane |
| 2' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 4' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nikolas Nartey |
| 6' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 10' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 16' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 17' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 21' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Montrell Culbreath | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 23' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julian Chabot |
| 26' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chema Andres |
| 30' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 51' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 53' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 55' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jamie Leweling |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 88' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Maza AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Patrik Schick AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Christian Kofane FW | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| Aleix García MC | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| Montrell Culbreath DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Malik Tillman Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Arthur Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ernest Poku Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.23 | 0.02 | 1.98 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Angelo Stiller MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| Chris Führich ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 1.17 |
| Jamie Leweling MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.61 | 1.55 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Chema Andres MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.57 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.18 | 0.08 | 1.16 |
| Nikolas Nartey AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Jaquez Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenz Assignon Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |