VfB Stuttgart v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 25 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 6
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 2
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.92 – +0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
58.1%
Draw
22.3%
FC Heidenheim win
19.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.04–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 1.92 xGFC Heidenheim 0.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 22' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 24' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Niklas Dorsch | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 35' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 38' |
FC Heidenheim |
Frans Krätzig | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 41' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 46' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Finn Jeltsch |
| 48' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 55' |
FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 55' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Niklas Dorsch |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Fabian Rieder | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 79' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Finn Jeltsch | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 80' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 80' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 83' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Pascal Stenzel |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Pascal Stenzel | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 88' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jan Schöppner |
| 92' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Pascal Stenzel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Stenzel |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.75 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.66 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Chris Führich AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| Fabian Rieder AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Leonidas Stergiou DR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Nick Woltemade Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Pascal Stenzel Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.08 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frans Krätzig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.06 | 0.41 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Omar Traoré DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Adrian Beck FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Marnon Busch MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Keller Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |