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VfB Stuttgart v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 August 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

3–3
4.21 – 1.95 xG
Shots
28 – 11
On target
11 – 7
Shots in box
21 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 0.80
Goals − xG
-1.43 – +1.05
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.22.53.75.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Enzo Millot 7' — goalJamie Leweling 14' — goalNadiem Amiri 42' — goalJonathan Burkardt 61' — goalFabian Rieder 87' — goalMaxim Leitsch 93' — goal
VfB Stuttgart 4.43 xGMainz 05 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Deniz Undav 2' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 3' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Anrie Chase 4' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Jae-Sung Lee 5' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Chris Führich 7' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 7' — Goal (0.91 xG, Open Play)Pascal Stenzel 9' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 10' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 12' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 13' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 14' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 19' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 24' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 28' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Angelo Stiller 30' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 32' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 34' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 42' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Hong Hyun-Seok 44' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 50' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 50' — Missed Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 53' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Jamie Leweling 56' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 61' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 64' — Saved Shot (0.20 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 68' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 68' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 69' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)El Bilal Touré 74' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 76' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Mittelstädt 82' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)El Bilal Touré 84' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 84' — Blocked Shot (0.87 xG, Open Play)Atakan Karazor 85' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fabian Rieder 87' — Goal (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)Fabian Rieder 90' — Shot On Post (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Maxim Leitsch 93' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Fabian Rieder 96' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 97' — Missed Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)
VfB Stuttgart attacking right Mainz 05 attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
3' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.07 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
4' VfB Stuttgart Anrie Chase 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
5' Mainz 05 Jae-Sung Lee 0.05 Open Play Blocked Shot Anthony Caci
7' VfB Stuttgart Chris Führich 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Deniz Undav
7' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.91 Open Play Left Foot Goal
9' VfB Stuttgart Pascal Stenzel 0.12 Open Play Missed Shot Angelo Stiller
10' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Enzo Millot
12' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
13' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
14' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Alexander Nübel
19' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jae-Sung Lee
24' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
28' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Chris Führich
30' VfB Stuttgart Angelo Stiller 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Deniz Undav
32' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jae-Sung Lee
34' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
42' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.76 Right Foot Goal
44' Mainz 05 Hong Hyun-Seok 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Caci
50' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.26 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Deniz Undav
50' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
53' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
56' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
61' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.30 Open Play Goal Andreas Hanche-Olsen
64' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.20 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Joshua Vagnoman
68' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Fabian Rieder
68' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Atakan Karazor
69' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.09 From Corner Saved Shot Enzo Millot
74' VfB Stuttgart El Bilal Touré 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
76' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Fabian Rieder
82' VfB Stuttgart Maximilian Mittelstädt 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Angelo Stiller
84' VfB Stuttgart El Bilal Touré 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ermedin Demirovic
84' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.87 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
85' VfB Stuttgart Atakan Karazor 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
87' VfB Stuttgart Fabian Rieder 0.08 Direct Freekick Left Foot Goal
90' VfB Stuttgart Fabian Rieder 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Shot On Post
93' Mainz 05 Maxim Leitsch 0.32 Open Play Goal Silvan Widmer
96' VfB Stuttgart Fabian Rieder 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Enzo Millot
97' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.16 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Enzo Millot

Players

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Enzo Millot AMC 90 1 0 6 4 2.61 0.46 3.25
Angelo Stiller DMC 90 0 0 1 2 0.12 0.15 0.84
Anrie Chase DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.98
Maximilian Mittelstädt DL 90 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.14 0.71
Atakan Karazor DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.08 0.31
Alexander Nübel GK 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.49
Julian Chabot DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.68
Jamie Leweling AMR 77 1 0 3 0 0.27 0.00 0.33
Deniz Undav FW 76 0 0 7 3 0.55 0.43 1.14
Pascal Stenzel DR 49 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.18
Chris Führich AML 49 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.08 0.48
Fabian Rieder Sub 41 1 0 3 2 0.23 0.24 0.99
Joshua Vagnoman Sub 41 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.20 0.23
Ermedin Demirovic Sub 14 0 0 1 1 0.16 0.08 0.26
El Bilal Touré Sub 13 0 0 2 0 0.18 0.00 0.19
Ramon Hendriks Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nadiem Amiri MC 90 1 0 6 0 0.87 0.00 0.43
Jonathan Burkardt FW 90 1 0 2 0 0.65 0.00 0.71
Jae-Sung Lee AMC 90 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.39 0.75
Dominik Kohr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Andreas Hanche-Olsen DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.30 0.30
Kaishu Sano MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Philipp Mwene DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.62
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anthony Caci DMR 76 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.11
Hong Hyun-Seok AMC 67 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.41
Stefan Bell DC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maxim Leitsch Sub 41 1 0 1 0 0.32 0.00 0.32
Armindo Sieb Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Silvan Widmer Sub 14 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.32 0.32
Aymen Barkok Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nikolas Veratschnig Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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