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VfB Stuttgart v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 December 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–1
2.42 – 2.58 xG
Shots
25 – 11
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
22 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.99 – 1.15
Goals − xG
-2.42 – -1.87
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Johannes Eggestein 20' — goal
VfB Stuttgart 2.42 xGSt. Pauli 2.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Johannes Eggestein 7' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 10' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 12' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 17' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Julian Chabot 19' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Yannik Keitel 19' — Saved Shot (0.50 xG, From Corner)Johannes Eggestein 20' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Anthony Rouault 23' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Julian Chabot 25' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Yannik Keitel 33' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nick Woltemade 36' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Johannes Eggestein 40' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 40' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nick Woltemade 40' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nick Woltemade 46' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 47' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 47' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Carlo Boukhalfa 48' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 50' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Nick Woltemade 50' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, From Corner)Jackson Irvine 53' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Set Piece)Johannes Eggestein 53' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Maximilian Mittelstädt 57' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Joshua Vagnoman 59' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Yannik Keitel 60' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lars Ritzka 63' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Ermedin Demirovic 65' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Oladapo Afolayan 67' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 68' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Nick Woltemade 72' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Ermedin Demirovic 78' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Oladapo Afolayan 79' — Shot On Post (0.38 xG, Open Play)Oladapo Afolayan 81' — Saved Shot (0.57 xG, Open Play)Fabian Rieder 82' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pascal Stenzel 89' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pascal Stenzel 91' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
VfB Stuttgart attacking right St. Pauli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Morgan Guilavogui
10' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Manolis Saliakas
12' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot Angelo Stiller
17' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nick Woltemade
19' VfB Stuttgart Julian Chabot 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
19' VfB Stuttgart Yannik Keitel 0.50 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
20' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.49 Open Play Left Foot Goal Jackson Irvine
23' VfB Stuttgart Anthony Rouault 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
25' VfB Stuttgart Julian Chabot 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Angelo Stiller
33' VfB Stuttgart Yannik Keitel 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nick Woltemade
36' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.29 Open Play Saved Shot Chris Führich
40' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jackson Irvine
40' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot Joshua Vagnoman
40' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Joshua Vagnoman
46' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
47' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anthony Rouault
47' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
48' St. Pauli Carlo Boukhalfa 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Morgan Guilavogui
50' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
50' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.26 From Corner Saved Shot Chris Führich
53' St. Pauli Jackson Irvine 0.38 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot
53' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.76 Right Foot Saved Shot
57' VfB Stuttgart Maximilian Mittelstädt 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Yannik Keitel
59' VfB Stuttgart Joshua Vagnoman 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nick Woltemade
60' VfB Stuttgart Yannik Keitel 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ermedin Demirovic
63' St. Pauli Lars Ritzka 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
65' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Angelo Stiller
67' St. Pauli Oladapo Afolayan 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lars Ritzka
68' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.39 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
72' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.09 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Chris Führich
78' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Enzo Millot
79' St. Pauli Oladapo Afolayan 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Jackson Irvine
81' St. Pauli Oladapo Afolayan 0.57 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Danel Sinani
82' VfB Stuttgart Fabian Rieder 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
89' VfB Stuttgart Pascal Stenzel 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
91' VfB Stuttgart Pascal Stenzel 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot

Players

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nick Woltemade AMC 90 0 0 5 3 0.81 0.16 0.65
Enzo Millot AMC 90 0 0 5 1 0.59 0.03 0.97
Yannik Keitel MC 90 0 0 3 1 0.55 0.05 1.02
Ermedin Demirovic FW 90 0 0 4 1 0.18 0.02 0.31
Maximilian Mittelstädt DC 90 0 0 1 4 0.05 0.50 0.60
Chris Führich DML 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.64 1.02
Angelo Stiller MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.12 1.14
Alexander Nübel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Julian Chabot DC 76 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.94
Joshua Vagnoman DMR 68 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.11 0.50
Anthony Rouault DC 48 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.03 0.44
Anrie Chase Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Fabian Rieder Sub 22 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.09
Pascal Stenzel Sub 14 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.10
Jarzinho Malanga Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

St. Pauli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Oladapo Afolayan FWL 90 0 0 3 0 0.99 0.00 0.99
Jackson Irvine MC 90 0 1 1 3 0.38 0.89 1.03
Carlo Boukhalfa MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
David Nemeth DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nikola Vasilj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manolis Saliakas DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.46
Hauke Wahl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Philipp Treu DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Morgan Guilavogui FWR 84 0 0 1 2 0.09 0.12 0.21
Johannes Eggestein FW 72 1 0 4 0 1.34 0.00 0.58
Lars Ritzka DC 72 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.04 0.04
Danel Sinani Sub 18 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.57 0.94
Adam Dzwigala Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Erik Ahlstrand Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andreas Albers Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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