Vitória v Grêmio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 7 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000078 · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.4%
- 1-0 10.6%
- 2-1 8.9%
- 0-1 8.7%
- 2-0 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.3% | Under 2.5 | 51.7% |
| BTTS yes | 52.5% | BTTS no | 47.5% |
| Vitória 1+ | 76.2% | Vitória 2+ | 42.0% |
| Grêmio 1+ | 69.0% | Grêmio 2+ | 32.7% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Vitória have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Grêmio have allowed 1.35.
- At home Vitória average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Vitória have only 0 matches on record.
- Grêmio have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Vitória have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 30.8% for Grêmio and 26.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Vitória and 1.17 for Grêmio.
Why Vitória
Vitória have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Grêmio have allowed 1.35. At home Vitória average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.1%.
Why Grêmio can win
Grêmio have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Vitória have allowed 1.35. Away from home Grêmio average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Vitória, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Grêmio, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Vitória: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Grêmio: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Vitória are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.43–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.