Werder Bremen v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 10
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-1.55 – -0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
43.5%
Draw
28.6%
St. Pauli win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 1.55 xGSt. Pauli 0.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Werder Bremen |
Mitchell Weiser | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 7' |
 St. Pauli |
Philipp Treu | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 8' |
St. Pauli |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 13' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlo Boukhalfa |
| 29' |
St. Pauli |
Carlo Boukhalfa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 33' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 35' |
St. Pauli |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 37' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 40' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 42' |
St. Pauli |
Carlo Boukhalfa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 48' |
Werder Bremen |
Niklas Stark | 0.37 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 51' |
St. Pauli |
David Nemeth | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
St. Pauli |
Noah Weißhaupt | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manolis Saliakas |
| 57' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 58' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 68' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 70' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 77' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Elias Saad |
| 86' |
Werder Bremen |
Niklas Stark | 0.38 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Leonardo Bittencourt | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niklas Stark DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.65 |
| Mitchell Weiser DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Ducksch FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 0.38 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Felix Agu DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Justin Njinmah AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.09 | 0.65 |
| Oliver Burke Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Treu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Morgan Guilavogui AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.69 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| David Nemeth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Siebe Van der Heyden DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| Carlo Boukhalfa MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Danel Sinani FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| Noah Weißhaupt AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Elias Saad Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robert Wagner Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lars Ritzka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johannes Eggestein Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |