Wolverhampton Wanderers v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:07

Wolverhampton Wanderers

1–3

1.11 – 3.76 xG

Chelsea

Shots

11 – 15

On target

3 – 6

Shots in box

9 – 11

xG per shot

0.10 – 0.25

Set-piece xG

0.79 – 1.52

Goals − xG

-0.11 – -0.77

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

16.8%

Draw

26.5%

Chelsea win

56.7%

172757

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Chelsea are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLDWLWW last 10 scored 12 from 15.3 xG conceded 22 from 17.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	172757	0.86–1.74	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	272449	1.18–1.68	1-1 11%	55%	56%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.11 xGChelsea 3.77 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Chelsea attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.02	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Mateus Mané
7'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Yerson Mosquera	0.10	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Hugo Bueno
12'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.76		Left Foot	Goal	—
14'	Chelsea	Enzo Fernández	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
23'	Chelsea	Marc Cucurella	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Malo Gusto
23'	Chelsea	Moisés Caicedo	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
24'	Chelsea	Enzo Fernández	0.39	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Moisés Caicedo
26'	Chelsea	João Pedro	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Enzo Fernández
29'	Chelsea	João Pedro	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Marc Cucurella
30'	Chelsea	Malo Gusto	0.33	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Andrey Santos
34'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.76		Left Foot	Goal	—
37'	Chelsea	Cole Palmer	0.59	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Marc Cucurella
39'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
48'	Chelsea	Enzo Fernández	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Malo Gusto
53'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mateus Mané	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	Rodrigo Gomes
53'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.64	From Corner	Right Foot	Goal	Adam Armstrong
55'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mateus Mané	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Angel Gomes
63'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.01	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Yerson Mosquera
70'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Yerson Mosquera	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Angel Gomes
86'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.41	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Enzo Fernández
87'	Chelsea	Liam Delap	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Enzo Fernández
87'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Moisés Caicedo
91'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hugo Bueno	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
91'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Rodrigo Gomes	0.08	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Hugo Bueno
94'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mateus Mané	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
96'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Yerson Mosquera	0.03	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	—

Players

Chelsea

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Pedro Neto AMR	90	0	0	3	0	0.52	0.00	1.53
Enzo Fernández AML	90	0	0	3	3	0.48	0.56	2.05
Marc Cucurella DL	90	0	1	1	2	0.09	0.64	1.22
Moisés Caicedo DMC	90	0	0	1	2	0.04	0.46	0.66
Robert Sánchez GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.64
Trevoh Chalobah DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.04
Wesley Fofana DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.99
Andrey Santos DMC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.33	1.01
Malo Gusto DR	81	0	0	1	2	0.33	0.17	1.08
João Pedro FW	81	0	0	2	0	0.12	0.00	0.20
Cole Palmer AMC	67	3	0	3	0	2.11	0.00	1.08
Alejandro Garnacho Sub	23	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.41
Liam Delap Sub	9	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.08
Josh Acheampong Sub	9	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jorrel Hato Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.41