Jasmine Paolini v Sorana Cirstea — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · WTA · 2026

WTA Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Jasmine Paolini

11:00

Sorana Cirstea

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Jasmine Paolini win

19.1%

Draw

0.0%

Sorana Cirstea win

80.9%

19081

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	19081	9.70–13.26	0-2 52%	41%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	59.7%	57.0%	66.1%	0.86×	1.76
Match to reach a 3rd set	40.3%	37.6%	33.9%	1.11×	2.66

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sorana Cirstea to win the first set	72.0%	67.7%	49.3%	1.37×	1.48
Jasmine Paolini to win the first set	28.0%	32.3%	50.7%	0.64×	3.09

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sorana Cirstea first set and match	66.4%	63.4%	39.7%	1.59×	1.58
Jasmine Paolini first set, Sorana Cirstea match	14.5%	11.7%	8.2%	1.43×	8.54
Jasmine Paolini first set and match	13.5%	11.7%	42.5%	0.28×	8.54
Sorana Cirstea first set, Jasmine Paolini match	5.6%	9.0%	9.6%	0.94×	11.16

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sorana Cirstea +8.5 games	99.6%	95.6%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Sorana Cirstea +9.5 games	99.8%	95.6%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Sorana Cirstea +7.5 games	99.1%	95.6%	89.2%	1.07×	1.05
Sorana Cirstea +6.5 games	98.4%	95.6%	82.1%	1.16×	1.05
Sorana Cirstea +5.5 games	97.2%	95.6%	74.3%	1.29×	1.05
Sorana Cirstea +4.5 games	95.5%	95.6%	66.4%	1.44×	1.05
Sorana Cirstea +3.5 games	93.3%	87.5%	59.8%	1.46×	1.14
Jasmine Paolini +9.5 games	92.3%	87.5%	97.6%	0.90×	1.14
Sorana Cirstea +2.5 games	90.7%	87.5%	55.0%	1.59×	1.14
Jasmine Paolini +8.5 games	87.5%	80.3%	94.4%	0.85×	1.25
Sorana Cirstea +1.5 games	87.3%	80.3%	51.7%	1.55×	1.25
Jasmine Paolini +7.5 games	81.0%	74.5%	90.2%	0.83×	1.34
Jasmine Paolini +6.5 games	72.8%	65.2%	83.7%	0.78×	1.54
Sorana Cirstea −1.5 games	67.7%	61.1%	44.1%	1.38×	1.64
Jasmine Paolini +5.5 games	63.8%	57.6%	76.4%	0.75×	1.74
Sorana Cirstea −2.5 games	60.9%	57.6%	40.8%	1.41×	1.74
Jasmine Paolini +4.5 games	54.9%	50.7%	70.0%	0.72×	1.97
Sorana Cirstea −3.5 games	53.6%	50.7%	36.5%	1.39×	1.97
Jasmine Paolini +3.5 games	46.4%	49.3%	63.5%	0.78×	2.03
Sorana Cirstea −4.5 games	45.1%	49.3%	30.0%	1.64×	2.03
Jasmine Paolini +2.5 games	39.1%	42.4%	59.2%	0.72×	2.36
Sorana Cirstea −5.5 games	36.2%	42.4%	23.6%	1.80×	2.36
Jasmine Paolini +1.5 games	32.3%	38.9%	55.9%	0.70×	2.57
Sorana Cirstea −6.5 games	27.2%	34.8%	16.3%	2.14×	2.87
Sorana Cirstea −7.5 games	19.0%	25.5%	9.8%	2.59×	3.92
Jasmine Paolini −1.5 games	12.7%	19.7%	48.3%	0.41×	5.08
Sorana Cirstea −8.5 games	12.5%	19.7%	5.6%	3.54×	5.08
Jasmine Paolini −2.5 games	9.3%	12.5%	45.0%	0.28×	7.97
Sorana Cirstea −9.5 games	7.7%	12.5%	2.4%	5.19×	7.98
Jasmine Paolini −3.5 games	6.7%	12.5%	40.2%	0.31×	7.98
Jasmine Paolini −4.5 games	4.5%	4.4%	33.6%	0.13×	22.88
Jasmine Paolini −5.5 games	2.8%	4.4%	25.7%	0.17×	22.89
Jasmine Paolini −6.5 games	1.6%	4.4%	17.9%	0.24×	22.90
Jasmine Paolini −7.5 games	0.9%	4.4%	10.8%	0.41×	22.91
Jasmine Paolini −8.5 games	0.4%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.91
Jasmine Paolini −9.5 games	0.2%	4.4%	2.8%	1.55×	22.91

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sorana Cirstea to win	80.9%	76.0%	47.9%	1.59×	1.32
Jasmine Paolini to win	19.1%	24.0%	52.1%	0.46×	4.16

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of games	49.7%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Even number of games	50.3%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sorana Cirstea +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Jasmine Paolini +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Sorana Cirstea +1.5 sets	92.2%	86.0%	65.4%	1.31×	1.16
Sorana Cirstea −1.5 sets	51.9%	55.4%	31.6%	1.76×	1.80
Jasmine Paolini +1.5 sets	48.1%	44.6%	68.4%	0.65×	2.24
Jasmine Paolini −1.5 sets	7.8%	14.0%	34.6%	0.40×	7.15
Jasmine Paolini −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93
Sorana Cirstea −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93

Set score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sorana Cirstea to win 2-0	51.9%	49.2%	31.6%	1.56×	2.03
Sorana Cirstea to win 2-1	29.0%	21.8%	16.4%	1.33×	4.60
Jasmine Paolini to win 2-1	11.3%	18.3%	17.5%	1.04×	5.46
Jasmine Paolini to win 2-0	7.8%	12.1%	34.6%	0.35×	8.24

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sorana Cirstea in straight sets	51.9%	56.2%	31.6%	1.78×	1.78
Match in straight sets	59.7%	55.4%	66.1%	0.84×	1.80
At least one set dropped	40.3%	39.8%	33.9%	1.17×	2.51
Jasmine Paolini in straight sets	7.8%	13.0%	34.6%	0.37×	7.72

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 15.5 games	95.1%	93.4%	89.2%	1.05×	1.07
Under 31.5 games	91.9%	88.8%	93.4%	0.95×	1.13
Under 29.5 games	84.2%	79.1%	86.8%	0.91×	1.27
Over 17.5 games	81.9%	79.1%	71.7%	1.10×	1.27
Under 27.5 games	75.1%	74.3%	79.2%	0.94×	1.35
Under 26.5 games	70.8%	73.6%	75.9%	0.97×	1.36
Under 25.5 games	66.0%	66.2%	72.0%	0.92×	1.51
Over 19.5 games	65.4%	66.1%	54.3%	1.22×	1.51
Under 24.5 games	61.4%	60.6%	68.6%	0.88×	1.65
Under 23.5 games	58.7%	57.5%	66.2%	0.87×	1.74
Over 20.5 games	58.3%	57.5%	47.3%	1.22×	1.74
Under 22.5 games	54.1%	52.0%	62.3%	0.83×	1.92
Over 21.5 games	52.8%	52.0%	42.6%	1.22×	1.92
Under 21.5 games	47.2%	48.0%	57.4%	0.84×	2.08
Over 22.5 games	45.9%	48.0%	37.7%	1.27×	2.08
Under 20.5 games	41.7%	42.5%	52.8%	0.81×	2.35
Over 23.5 games	41.3%	42.5%	33.8%	1.26×	2.35
Over 24.5 games	38.6%	39.4%	31.4%	1.25×	2.54
Under 19.5 games	34.6%	33.9%	45.7%	0.74×	2.95
Over 25.5 games	34.0%	33.8%	28.0%	1.21×	2.95
Over 26.5 games	29.2%	26.4%	24.1%	1.09×	3.79
Over 27.5 games	24.9%	25.7%	20.8%	1.24×	3.89
Under 17.5 games	18.1%	20.9%	28.3%	0.74×	4.78
Over 29.5 games	15.8%	20.9%	13.2%	1.59×	4.78
Over 31.5 games	8.1%	11.2%	6.6%	1.69×	8.95
Under 15.5 games	4.9%	6.6%	10.8%	0.61×	15.13

Total sets 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 sets	59.7%	57.0%	66.1%	0.86×	1.76
Exactly 3 sets	40.3%	37.6%	33.9%	1.11×	2.66

Jasmine Paolini v Sorana Cirstea — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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