Jessica Pegula v Leylah Fernandez — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · WTA · 2026

WTA Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Jessica Pegula

11:30

Leylah Fernandez

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Jessica Pegula win

84.9%

Draw

0.0%

Leylah Fernandez win

15.1%

85015

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	85015	13.28–9.18	2-0 57%	42%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	63.0%	62.4%	66.1%	0.94×	1.60
Match to reach a 3rd set	37.0%	35.1%	33.9%	1.04×	2.85

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jessica Pegula to win the first set	75.5%	72.4%	50.7%	1.43×	1.38
Leylah Fernandez to win the first set	24.5%	27.6%	49.3%	0.56×	3.62

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jessica Pegula first set and match	70.9%	65.4%	42.5%	1.54×	1.53
Leylah Fernandez first set, Jessica Pegula match	14.0%	11.7%	9.6%	1.23×	8.54
Leylah Fernandez first set and match	10.6%	11.7%	39.7%	0.29×	8.55
Jessica Pegula first set, Leylah Fernandez match	4.5%	5.6%	8.2%	0.69×	17.74

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jessica Pegula +7.5 games	99.4%	95.6%	90.2%	1.06×	1.05
Jessica Pegula +8.5 games	99.7%	95.6%	94.4%	1.01×	1.05
Jessica Pegula +9.5 games	99.9%	95.6%	97.6%	0.98×	1.05
Jessica Pegula +6.5 games	98.9%	95.6%	83.7%	1.14×	1.05
Jessica Pegula +5.5 games	98.0%	95.6%	76.4%	1.25×	1.05
Jessica Pegula +4.5 games	96.7%	95.6%	70.0%	1.37×	1.05
Jessica Pegula +3.5 games	95.0%	87.5%	63.5%	1.38×	1.14
Jessica Pegula +2.5 games	92.9%	87.5%	59.2%	1.48×	1.14
Leylah Fernandez +9.5 games	90.9%	87.5%	97.2%	0.90×	1.14
Jessica Pegula +1.5 games	90.0%	87.5%	55.9%	1.57×	1.14
Leylah Fernandez +8.5 games	85.4%	80.3%	94.2%	0.85×	1.25
Leylah Fernandez +7.5 games	78.0%	69.9%	89.2%	0.78×	1.43
Jessica Pegula −1.5 games	72.2%	65.1%	48.3%	1.35×	1.54
Leylah Fernandez +6.5 games	68.8%	61.1%	82.1%	0.74×	1.64
Jessica Pegula −2.5 games	65.9%	61.1%	45.0%	1.36×	1.64
Leylah Fernandez +5.5 games	59.0%	53.6%	74.3%	0.72×	1.87
Jessica Pegula −3.5 games	58.8%	53.6%	40.2%	1.33×	1.87
Jessica Pegula −4.5 games	50.2%	50.7%	33.6%	1.51×	1.97
Leylah Fernandez +4.5 games	49.8%	49.3%	66.4%	0.74×	2.03
Leylah Fernandez +3.5 games	41.2%	46.4%	59.8%	0.78×	2.15
Jessica Pegula −5.5 games	41.0%	46.4%	25.7%	1.81×	2.15
Leylah Fernandez +2.5 games	34.1%	38.9%	55.0%	0.71×	2.57
Jessica Pegula −6.5 games	31.2%	38.9%	17.9%	2.17×	2.57
Leylah Fernandez +1.5 games	27.8%	34.9%	51.7%	0.67×	2.87
Jessica Pegula −7.5 games	22.0%	30.1%	10.8%	2.80×	3.32
Jessica Pegula −8.5 games	14.6%	19.7%	5.8%	3.42×	5.07
Leylah Fernandez −1.5 games	10.0%	12.5%	44.1%	0.28×	7.97
Jessica Pegula −9.5 games	9.1%	12.5%	2.8%	4.44×	7.97
Leylah Fernandez −2.5 games	7.1%	12.5%	40.8%	0.31×	7.98
Leylah Fernandez −3.5 games	5.0%	12.5%	36.5%	0.34×	7.98
Leylah Fernandez −4.5 games	3.3%	4.4%	30.0%	0.15×	22.89
Leylah Fernandez −5.5 games	2.0%	4.4%	23.6%	0.19×	22.90
Leylah Fernandez −6.5 games	1.1%	4.4%	16.3%	0.27×	22.90
Leylah Fernandez −7.5 games	0.6%	4.4%	9.8%	0.44×	22.91
Leylah Fernandez −8.5 games	0.3%	4.4%	5.6%	0.78×	22.91
Leylah Fernandez −9.5 games	0.1%	4.4%	2.4%	1.81×	22.91

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jessica Pegula to win	84.9%	76.4%	52.1%	1.47×	1.31
Leylah Fernandez to win	15.1%	23.6%	47.9%	0.49×	4.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of games	49.7%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Even number of games	50.3%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leylah Fernandez +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Jessica Pegula +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Jessica Pegula +1.5 sets	94.0%	86.1%	68.4%	1.26×	1.16
Jessica Pegula −1.5 sets	56.9%	58.7%	34.6%	1.70×	1.70
Leylah Fernandez +1.5 sets	43.1%	41.3%	65.4%	0.63×	2.42
Leylah Fernandez −1.5 sets	6.0%	13.9%	31.6%	0.44×	7.20
Jessica Pegula −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93
Leylah Fernandez −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93

Set score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jessica Pegula to win 2-0	56.9%	50.7%	34.6%	1.47×	1.97
Jessica Pegula to win 2-1	27.9%	21.8%	17.5%	1.24×	4.60
Leylah Fernandez to win 2-1	9.1%	12.2%	16.4%	0.74×	8.21
Leylah Fernandez to win 2-0	6.0%	12.1%	31.6%	0.38×	8.28

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match in straight sets	63.0%	61.0%	66.1%	0.92×	1.64
Jessica Pegula in straight sets	56.9%	55.3%	34.6%	1.60×	1.81
At least one set dropped	37.0%	35.8%	33.9%	1.06×	2.79
Leylah Fernandez in straight sets	6.0%	12.9%	31.6%	0.41×	7.78

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 14.5 games	97.7%	93.5%	94.9%	0.98×	1.07
Under 30.5 games	90.2%	88.8%	90.4%	0.98×	1.13
Over 16.5 games	87.8%	82.8%	81.3%	1.02×	1.21
Under 28.5 games	82.4%	79.1%	83.2%	0.95×	1.27
Under 26.5 games	74.1%	73.7%	75.9%	0.97×	1.36
Over 18.5 games	70.6%	73.6%	62.5%	1.18×	1.36
Under 25.5 games	69.6%	66.2%	72.0%	0.92×	1.51
Under 24.5 games	65.1%	66.1%	68.6%	0.96×	1.51
Under 23.5 games	62.3%	60.6%	66.2%	0.92×	1.65
Over 19.5 games	62.1%	60.6%	54.3%	1.12×	1.65
Under 22.5 games	57.7%	57.5%	62.3%	0.92×	1.74
Over 20.5 games	54.8%	52.0%	47.3%	1.10×	1.92
Under 21.5 games	50.9%	52.0%	57.4%	0.91×	1.92
Over 21.5 games	49.1%	48.0%	42.6%	1.13×	2.08
Under 20.5 games	45.2%	48.0%	52.8%	0.91×	2.08
Over 22.5 games	42.3%	42.5%	37.7%	1.13×	2.35
Under 19.5 games	37.9%	39.4%	45.7%	0.86×	2.54
Over 23.5 games	37.7%	39.4%	33.8%	1.17×	2.54
Over 24.5 games	34.9%	33.9%	31.4%	1.08×	2.95
Over 25.5 games	30.4%	33.8%	28.0%	1.21×	2.96
Under 18.5 games	29.4%	26.4%	37.5%	0.70×	3.79
Over 26.5 games	25.9%	26.3%	24.1%	1.09×	3.80
Over 28.5 games	17.6%	20.9%	16.8%	1.25×	4.78
Under 16.5 games	12.2%	17.2%	18.7%	0.92×	5.80
Over 30.5 games	9.8%	11.2%	9.6%	1.17×	8.94
Under 14.5 games	2.3%	6.5%	5.1%	1.28×	15.39

Total sets 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 sets	63.0%	62.4%	66.1%	0.94×	1.60
Exactly 3 sets	37.0%	35.1%	33.9%	1.04×	2.85

Jessica Pegula v Leylah Fernandez — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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