Jiri Lehecka v Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · ATP · 2026

ATP Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Jiri Lehecka

17:00

Stefanos Tsitsipas

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Jiri Lehecka win

67.2%

Draw

0.0%

Stefanos Tsitsipas win

32.8%

67033

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	67033	21.98–19.78	3-1 26%	47%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	65.1%	68.1%	96.8%	0.70×	1.47
Match to reach a 5th set	34.9%	30.9%	3.2%	9.55×	3.24

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jiri Lehecka to win the first set	59.4%	57.8%	49.4%	1.17×	1.73
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the first set	40.6%	42.2%	50.6%	0.83×	2.37

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jiri Lehecka first set and match	48.4%	49.6%	39.4%	1.26×	2.02
Stefanos Tsitsipas first set, Jiri Lehecka match	18.9%	30.5%	9.9%	3.07×	3.28
Stefanos Tsitsipas first set and match	21.7%	28.7%	40.7%	0.70×	3.49
Jiri Lehecka first set, Stefanos Tsitsipas match	11.1%	11.7%	10.0%	1.17×	8.55

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jiri Lehecka +9.5 games	98.7%	95.6%	98.0%	0.98×	1.05
Jiri Lehecka +8.5 games	97.8%	95.6%	95.8%	1.00×	1.05
Jiri Lehecka +7.5 games	96.6%	95.6%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Jiri Lehecka +6.5 games	94.8%	87.5%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Jiri Lehecka +5.5 games	92.5%	87.5%	82.6%	1.06×	1.14
Stefanos Tsitsipas +9.5 games	91.8%	87.5%	97.9%	0.89×	1.14
Jiri Lehecka +4.5 games	89.5%	80.3%	74.7%	1.08×	1.25
Stefanos Tsitsipas +8.5 games	88.3%	80.3%	95.9%	0.84×	1.25
Jiri Lehecka +3.5 games	85.8%	80.3%	66.5%	1.21×	1.25
Stefanos Tsitsipas +7.5 games	84.0%	74.5%	93.0%	0.80×	1.34
Jiri Lehecka +2.5 games	81.1%	74.5%	59.1%	1.26×	1.34
Stefanos Tsitsipas +6.5 games	78.7%	69.9%	88.1%	0.79×	1.43
Jiri Lehecka +1.5 games	75.6%	69.9%	54.1%	1.29×	1.43
Stefanos Tsitsipas +5.5 games	72.8%	65.2%	80.4%	0.81×	1.54
Stefanos Tsitsipas +4.5 games	66.2%	61.1%	72.8%	0.84×	1.64
Stefanos Tsitsipas +3.5 games	59.2%	53.6%	65.2%	0.82×	1.87
Jiri Lehecka −1.5 games	55.8%	53.5%	44.9%	1.19×	1.87
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5 games	51.7%	50.7%	59.5%	0.85×	1.97
Jiri Lehecka −2.5 games	48.3%	49.3%	40.5%	1.22×	2.03
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1.5 games	44.2%	46.5%	55.1%	0.84×	2.15
Jiri Lehecka −3.5 games	40.8%	46.4%	34.8%	1.33×	2.15
Jiri Lehecka −4.5 games	33.8%	38.9%	27.2%	1.43×	2.57
Jiri Lehecka −5.5 games	27.2%	34.9%	19.6%	1.78×	2.87
Stefanos Tsitsipas −1.5 games	24.4%	30.1%	45.9%	0.66×	3.32
Jiri Lehecka −6.5 games	21.3%	30.1%	11.9%	2.53×	3.33
Stefanos Tsitsipas −2.5 games	18.9%	25.5%	40.9%	0.62×	3.92
Jiri Lehecka −7.5 games	16.0%	25.5%	7.0%	3.63×	3.93
Stefanos Tsitsipas −3.5 games	14.2%	19.7%	33.5%	0.59×	5.07
Jiri Lehecka −8.5 games	11.7%	19.7%	4.1%	4.77×	5.08
Stefanos Tsitsipas −4.5 games	10.5%	19.7%	25.3%	0.78×	5.08
Jiri Lehecka −9.5 games	8.2%	12.5%	2.1%	6.03×	7.97
Stefanos Tsitsipas −5.5 games	7.5%	12.5%	17.4%	0.72×	7.98
Stefanos Tsitsipas −6.5 games	5.2%	12.5%	11.4%	1.10×	7.98
Stefanos Tsitsipas −7.5 games	3.4%	4.4%	6.6%	0.66×	22.89
Stefanos Tsitsipas −8.5 games	2.2%	4.4%	4.2%	1.05×	22.90
Stefanos Tsitsipas −9.5 games	1.3%	4.4%	2.0%	2.13×	22.90

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jiri Lehecka to win	67.2%	61.6%	49.3%	1.25×	1.62
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win	32.8%	38.4%	50.7%	0.76×	2.61

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of games	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Odd number of games	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stefanos Tsitsipas +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Jiri Lehecka +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Jiri Lehecka +2.5 sets	93.3%	86.1%	97.0%	0.89×	1.16
Jiri Lehecka +1.5 sets	81.4%	74.9%	66.3%	1.13×	1.33
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5 sets	79.0%	72.4%	96.2%	0.75×	1.38
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1.5 sets	53.5%	55.5%	67.6%	0.82×	1.80
Jiri Lehecka −1.5 sets	46.5%	44.5%	32.4%	1.37×	2.25
Jiri Lehecka −2.5 sets	21.0%	27.6%	3.8%	7.23×	3.63
Stefanos Tsitsipas −1.5 sets	18.6%	25.1%	33.8%	0.74×	3.99
Stefanos Tsitsipas −2.5 sets	6.7%	13.9%	3.0%	4.58×	7.18
Jiri Lehecka −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93
Stefanos Tsitsipas −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93

Set score 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jiri Lehecka to win 3-1	25.5%	21.7%	2.1%	10.13×	4.60
Jiri Lehecka to win 3-0	21.0%	20.0%	3.8%	5.26×	4.99
Jiri Lehecka to win 3-2	20.7%	20.0%	1.8%	10.98×	4.99
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 3-2	14.2%	18.4%	1.4%	12.75×	5.45
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 3-1	11.9%	18.3%	3.0%	6.09×	5.46
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 3-0	6.7%	12.1%	3.0%	3.98×	8.27

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
At least one set dropped	72.3%	66.2%	93.2%	0.71×	1.51
Match in straight sets	27.7%	28.8%	6.8%	4.23×	3.47
Jiri Lehecka in straight sets	21.0%	25.9%	3.8%	6.79×	3.87
Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets	6.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.24×	7.76

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 50.5 games	80.1%	79.0%	98.4%	0.80×	1.27
Over 34.5 games	75.1%	74.3%	12.1%	6.12×	1.35
Under 48.5 games	73.5%	73.7%	97.8%	0.75×	1.36
Over 36.5 games	68.8%	66.2%	8.6%	7.65×	1.51
Under 46.5 games	66.8%	66.2%	97.1%	0.68×	1.51
Under 45.5 games	63.7%	60.6%	96.9%	0.63×	1.65
Over 38.5 games	62.8%	60.6%	7.0%	8.68×	1.65
Under 44.5 games	60.0%	57.5%	96.5%	0.60×	1.74
Over 39.5 games	59.0%	57.5%	6.1%	9.45×	1.74
Under 43.5 games	56.3%	57.5%	96.2%	0.60×	1.74
Over 40.5 games	55.2%	57.5%	5.5%	10.44×	1.74
Under 42.5 games	52.7%	52.0%	95.7%	0.54×	1.92
Over 41.5 games	51.2%	52.0%	5.0%	10.34×	1.92
Under 41.5 games	48.8%	48.0%	95.0%	0.51×	2.08
Over 42.5 games	47.3%	48.0%	4.3%	11.19×	2.08
Under 40.5 games	44.8%	42.5%	94.5%	0.45×	2.35
Over 43.5 games	43.7%	42.5%	3.8%	11.15×	2.35
Under 39.5 games	41.0%	42.5%	93.9%	0.45×	2.35
Over 44.5 games	40.0%	42.5%	3.5%	12.17×	2.35
Under 38.5 games	37.2%	39.4%	93.0%	0.42×	2.54
Over 45.5 games	36.3%	39.4%	3.1%	12.56×	2.54
Over 46.5 games	33.2%	33.8%	2.9%	11.61×	2.96
Under 36.5 games	31.2%	33.8%	91.4%	0.37×	2.96
Over 48.5 games	26.5%	26.3%	2.2%	11.76×	3.80
Under 34.5 games	24.9%	25.7%	87.9%	0.29×	3.89
Over 50.5 games	19.9%	21.0%	1.6%	13.09×	4.77

Total sets 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 4 sets	37.5%	35.2%	5.1%	6.86×	2.84
Exactly 5 sets	34.9%	30.9%	3.2%	9.55×	3.24
Exactly 3 sets	27.7%	29.6%	37.5%	0.79×	3.37

Jiri Lehecka v Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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