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Air Force Falcons v Brown Bears — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Air Force Falcons win
28.8%
Draw
0.0%
Brown Bears win
71.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 65.26–71.06 65-71 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Air Force Falcons to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 283.35
Air Force Falcons to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.36
Air Force Falcons to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Air Force Falcons to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Brown Bears to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.33
Brown Bears to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Brown Bears to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Brown Bears to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.36
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears to win H1 60.5% 62.2% 38.2% 1.63× 1.61
Brown Bears to win H1 60.5% 62.2% 38.2% 1.63× 1.61
Air Force Falcons to win H1 35.2% 37.8% 57.9% 0.65× 2.65
Air Force Falcons to win H1 35.1% 37.8% 57.9% 0.65× 2.65
H1 tied 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 52.5 87.3% 87.7% 93.8% 0.94× 1.14
H1 under 76.5 87.0% 87.7% 75.5% 1.16× 1.14
H1 over 56.5 78.3% 77.4% 87.5% 0.89× 1.29
H1 under 72.5 78.1% 77.4% 63.3% 1.22× 1.29
H1 over 56.5 77.6% 77.4% 87.5% 0.89× 1.29
H1 under 72.5 77.4% 77.4% 63.3% 1.22× 1.29
H1 over 59.5 68.8% 67.4% 80.7% 0.84× 1.48
H1 under 69.5 68.6% 67.4% 53.1% 1.27× 1.48
H1 over 59.5 68.2% 67.4% 80.7% 0.84× 1.48
H1 under 69.5 68.1% 67.4% 53.1% 1.27× 1.48
H1 over 61.5 61.6% 62.7% 74.9% 0.84× 1.59
H1 under 67.5 61.4% 62.7% 45.6% 1.38× 1.59
H1 over 61.5 61.2% 62.7% 74.9% 0.84× 1.59
H1 under 67.5 61.1% 62.7% 45.6% 1.38× 1.59
H1 over 63.5 54.0% 52.6% 69.0% 0.76× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 53.8% 52.6% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
H1 over 63.5 53.8% 52.6% 69.0% 0.76× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 53.7% 52.6% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 50.1% 52.6% 65.3% 0.81× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 50.1% 52.6% 65.3% 0.81× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 49.9% 47.4% 34.8% 1.36× 2.11
H1 under 64.5 49.9% 47.4% 34.8% 1.36× 2.11
H1 under 63.5 46.0% 47.4% 31.0% 1.53× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 46.2% 47.4% 61.9% 0.77× 2.11
H1 under 63.5 46.2% 47.4% 31.0% 1.53× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 46.3% 47.4% 61.9% 0.77× 2.11
H1 under 61.5 38.4% 37.3% 25.1% 1.48× 2.68
H1 over 67.5 38.6% 37.3% 54.4% 0.69× 2.68
H1 under 61.5 38.8% 37.3% 25.1% 1.48× 2.68
H1 over 67.5 38.9% 37.3% 54.4% 0.69× 2.68
H1 under 59.5 31.2% 32.6% 19.3% 1.69× 3.07
H1 over 69.5 31.4% 32.6% 46.9% 0.69× 3.07
H1 under 59.5 31.8% 32.6% 19.3% 1.69× 3.07
H1 over 69.5 31.9% 32.6% 46.9% 0.69× 3.07
H1 under 56.5 22.4% 22.6% 12.5% 1.80× 4.43
H1 over 72.5 22.6% 22.6% 36.7% 0.62× 4.43
H1 under 56.5 21.7% 22.6% 12.5% 1.80× 4.43
H1 over 72.5 21.9% 22.6% 36.7% 0.62× 4.43
H1 under 52.5 12.7% 12.3% 6.2% 1.97× 8.14
H1 over 76.5 13.0% 12.3% 24.5% 0.50× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears to win H2 61.5% 58.8% 38.9% 1.51× 1.70
Brown Bears to win H2 61.5% 58.8% 38.5% 1.53× 1.70
Air Force Falcons to win H2 34.3% 36.3% 56.9% 0.64× 2.75
Air Force Falcons to win H2 34.4% 36.3% 57.5% 0.63× 2.75
H2 tied 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 tied 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 84.5 86.8% 85.2% 70.5% 1.21× 1.17
H2 over 60.5 84.6% 81.8% 92.7% 0.88× 1.22
H2 under 80.5 78.4% 75.8% 62.9% 1.21× 1.32
H2 under 80.5 77.7% 75.8% 59.2% 1.28× 1.32
H2 over 64.5 75.2% 75.8% 85.3% 0.89× 1.32
H2 over 64.5 74.6% 72.2% 86.5% 0.83× 1.39
H2 under 77.5 69.5% 66.4% 53.0% 1.25× 1.51
H2 under 77.5 69.0% 66.4% 49.8% 1.33× 1.51
H2 over 67.5 65.7% 66.4% 78.2% 0.85× 1.51
H2 over 67.5 65.3% 66.4% 80.0% 0.83× 1.51
H2 under 75.5 62.9% 61.6% 46.6% 1.32× 1.62
H2 under 75.5 62.5% 61.6% 43.6% 1.41× 1.62
H2 over 69.5 58.8% 57.3% 72.8% 0.79× 1.74
H2 over 69.5 58.5% 57.3% 74.8% 0.77× 1.74
H2 under 73.5 55.8% 57.3% 39.6% 1.45× 1.74
H2 under 73.5 55.6% 57.3% 36.9% 1.55× 1.74
H2 over 71.5 51.5% 52.4% 66.4% 0.79× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 52.1% 52.4% 36.6% 1.43× 1.91
H2 over 71.5 51.5% 52.4% 68.8% 0.76× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 52.1% 52.4% 34.1% 1.54× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 48.5% 47.6% 33.6% 1.42× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 47.9% 47.6% 63.4% 0.75× 2.10
H2 under 71.5 48.5% 47.6% 31.2% 1.52× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 47.9% 47.6% 65.9% 0.72× 2.10
H2 over 73.5 44.2% 42.7% 60.4% 0.71× 2.34
H2 over 73.5 44.4% 42.7% 63.1% 0.68× 2.34
H2 under 69.5 41.5% 42.7% 25.2% 1.69× 2.34
H2 under 69.5 41.2% 42.7% 27.2% 1.57× 2.34
H2 over 75.5 37.1% 38.4% 53.4% 0.72× 2.61
H2 over 75.5 37.5% 38.4% 56.4% 0.68× 2.61
H2 under 67.5 34.7% 33.6% 20.0% 1.68× 2.97
H2 under 67.5 34.3% 33.6% 21.8% 1.55× 2.97
H2 over 77.5 30.5% 33.6% 47.0% 0.72× 2.97
H2 over 77.5 31.0% 33.6% 50.2% 0.67× 2.97
H2 under 64.5 25.4% 27.8% 13.5% 2.06× 3.59
H2 under 64.5 24.8% 24.2% 14.7% 1.64× 4.13
H2 over 80.5 21.6% 24.2% 37.1% 0.65× 4.13
H2 over 80.5 22.3% 24.2% 40.8% 0.59× 4.13
H2 under 60.5 15.4% 18.2% 7.3% 2.50× 5.50
H2 over 84.5 13.2% 14.8% 29.5% 0.50× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears leading at half time 60.5% 62.5% 38.2% 1.64× 1.60
Air Force Falcons leading at half time 35.2% 37.8% 57.9% 0.65× 2.64
Level at half time 4.3% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears +14.5 97.0% 97.4% 77.2% 1.26× 1.03
Brown Bears +16.5 98.1% 97.4% 80.7% 1.21× 1.03
Brown Bears +18.5 98.8% 97.4% 83.9% 1.16× 1.03
Brown Bears +20.5 99.3% 97.4% 86.5% 1.13× 1.03
Brown Bears +12.5 95.5% 97.4% 72.4% 1.35× 1.03
Brown Bears +10.5 93.4% 91.1% 67.4% 1.35× 1.10
Brown Bears +8.5 90.6% 91.1% 61.5% 1.48× 1.10
Brown Bears +9.5 92.1% 91.1% 64.5% 1.41× 1.10
Air Force Falcons +20.5 91.4% 91.1% 96.5% 0.94× 1.10
Brown Bears +7.5 88.9% 85.9% 58.7% 1.46× 1.16
Brown Bears +6.5 87.0% 85.9% 55.7% 1.54× 1.16
Air Force Falcons +18.5 88.0% 85.9% 95.4% 0.90× 1.16
Brown Bears +5.5 84.9% 81.1% 53.0% 1.53× 1.23
Air Force Falcons +16.5 83.8% 81.1% 94.0% 0.86× 1.23
Brown Bears +4.5 82.6% 81.1% 49.3% 1.64× 1.23
Brown Bears +3.5 80.0% 81.1% 45.9% 1.77× 1.23
Air Force Falcons +14.5 78.7% 76.5% 92.2% 0.83× 1.31
Brown Bears +2.5 77.3% 76.5% 42.3% 1.81× 1.31
Brown Bears +1.5 74.3% 71.6% 39.2% 1.83× 1.40
Air Force Falcons +12.5 72.7% 71.6% 89.9% 0.80× 1.40
Brown Bears −1.5 67.7% 66.7% 34.6% 1.93× 1.50
Air Force Falcons +10.5 66.0% 66.7% 87.2% 0.77× 1.50
Brown Bears −2.5 64.0% 61.9% 32.0% 1.93× 1.62
Air Force Falcons +9.5 62.5% 61.9% 85.3% 0.73× 1.62
Brown Bears −3.5 60.3% 61.9% 29.3% 2.12× 1.62
Air Force Falcons +8.5 58.8% 57.1% 83.3% 0.68× 1.75
Brown Bears −4.5 56.5% 57.1% 26.3% 2.17× 1.75
Air Force Falcons +7.5 55.0% 57.1% 81.0% 0.70× 1.75
Brown Bears −5.5 52.7% 52.4% 23.6% 2.22× 1.91
Air Force Falcons +6.5 51.2% 52.4% 78.8% 0.67× 1.91
Brown Bears −6.5 48.8% 47.6% 21.2% 2.24× 2.10
Air Force Falcons +5.5 47.3% 47.6% 76.4% 0.62× 2.10
Brown Bears −7.5 45.0% 42.9% 19.0% 2.26× 2.33
Air Force Falcons +4.5 43.5% 42.9% 73.7% 0.58× 2.33
Brown Bears −8.5 41.2% 42.9% 16.7% 2.58× 2.33
Air Force Falcons +3.5 39.7% 38.1% 70.8% 0.54× 2.63
Brown Bears −9.5 37.5% 38.1% 14.7% 2.60× 2.63
Air Force Falcons +2.5 36.0% 38.1% 68.0% 0.56× 2.63
Brown Bears −10.5 34.0% 33.3% 12.8% 2.59× 3.01
Air Force Falcons +1.5 32.3% 33.3% 65.4% 0.51× 3.01
Brown Bears −12.5 27.3% 28.4% 10.1% 2.81× 3.53
Air Force Falcons −1.5 25.7% 28.4% 60.8% 0.47× 3.53
Air Force Falcons −2.5 22.7% 23.5% 57.7% 0.41× 4.25
Brown Bears −14.5 21.3% 23.5% 7.8% 3.01× 4.25
Air Force Falcons −3.5 20.0% 18.9% 54.1% 0.35× 5.29
Air Force Falcons −4.5 17.4% 18.9% 50.7% 0.37× 5.29
Brown Bears −16.5 16.2% 18.9% 6.0% 3.17× 5.30
Air Force Falcons −5.5 15.1% 18.9% 47.0% 0.40× 5.30
Air Force Falcons −6.5 13.0% 14.1% 44.3% 0.32× 7.09
Brown Bears −18.5 12.0% 14.1% 4.6% 3.09× 7.09
Air Force Falcons −7.5 11.1% 14.1% 41.3% 0.34× 7.09
Air Force Falcons −8.5 9.4% 8.9% 38.5% 0.23× 11.25
Air Force Falcons −9.5 7.9% 8.9% 35.5% 0.25× 11.25
Brown Bears −20.5 8.6% 8.9% 3.5% 2.57× 11.25
Air Force Falcons −10.5 6.6% 8.9% 32.6% 0.27× 11.25
Air Force Falcons −12.5 4.5% 2.6% 27.6% 0.09× 38.72
Air Force Falcons −14.5 3.0% 2.6% 22.8% 0.11× 38.73
Air Force Falcons −16.5 1.9% 2.6% 19.3% 0.13× 38.73
Air Force Falcons −18.5 1.2% 2.6% 16.1% 0.16× 38.74
Air Force Falcons −20.5 0.7% 2.6% 13.5% 0.19× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 77.5% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 75.9% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 24.1% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 22.5% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears at HT / Brown Bears at FT 51.7% 51.1% 25.8% 1.98× 1.96
Air Force Falcons at HT / Air Force Falcons at FT 18.7% 15.5% 48.6% 0.32× 6.47
Air Force Falcons at HT / Brown Bears at FT 16.5% 15.5% 9.3% 1.66× 6.47
Brown Bears at HT / Air Force Falcons at FT 8.8% 8.3% 12.4% 0.67× 12.08
Level at HT / Brown Bears at FT 2.9% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.74
Level at HT / Air Force Falcons at FT 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears to win 71.2% 68.7% 36.8% 1.87× 1.46
Air Force Falcons to win 28.8% 31.3% 63.2% 0.50× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.7% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Air Force Falcons even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Brown Bears even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Air Force Falcons odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Brown Bears odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.3% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.7% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.3% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.65
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Air Force Falcons under 75.5 85.4% 83.9% 49.0% 1.71× 1.19
Brown Bears under 81.5 86.0% 83.9% 81.2% 1.03× 1.19
Air Force Falcons over 55.5 84.2% 80.7% 96.3% 0.84× 1.24
Brown Bears over 61.5 84.5% 80.7% 79.3% 1.02× 1.24
Brown Bears under 78.5 77.7% 75.1% 73.7% 1.02× 1.33
Air Force Falcons under 72.5 77.3% 75.1% 39.2% 1.92× 1.33
Air Force Falcons over 58.5 75.5% 75.1% 93.4% 0.80× 1.33
Brown Bears over 64.5 75.9% 75.1% 70.7% 1.06× 1.33
Air Force Falcons under 70.5 70.7% 70.7% 33.3% 2.12× 1.41
Brown Bears under 76.5 71.0% 70.7% 67.9% 1.04× 1.41
Air Force Falcons over 60.5 68.6% 66.4% 90.5% 0.73× 1.51
Brown Bears over 66.5 68.9% 66.4% 64.7% 1.03× 1.51
Air Force Falcons under 68.5 63.3% 61.2% 27.3% 2.24× 1.63
Brown Bears under 74.5 63.4% 61.2% 61.7% 0.99× 1.63
Air Force Falcons over 62.5 60.9% 61.2% 87.3% 0.70× 1.63
Brown Bears over 68.5 61.2% 61.2% 58.4% 1.05× 1.63
Air Force Falcons under 66.5 55.3% 57.1% 21.3% 2.68× 1.75
Brown Bears under 72.5 55.3% 57.1% 55.3% 1.03× 1.75
Air Force Falcons over 64.5 52.8% 52.3% 83.3% 0.63× 1.91
Air Force Falcons under 65.5 51.3% 52.3% 18.9% 2.77× 1.91
Brown Bears over 70.5 53.0% 52.3% 51.4% 1.02× 1.91
Brown Bears under 71.5 51.2% 52.3% 51.8% 1.01× 1.91
Air Force Falcons under 64.5 47.2% 47.7% 16.7% 2.86× 2.09
Air Force Falcons over 65.5 48.7% 47.7% 81.1% 0.59× 2.09
Brown Bears under 70.5 47.0% 47.7% 48.7% 0.98× 2.09
Brown Bears over 71.5 48.8% 47.7% 48.2% 0.99× 2.09
Air Force Falcons over 66.5 44.7% 42.9% 78.7% 0.55× 2.33
Brown Bears over 72.5 44.7% 42.9% 44.7% 0.96× 2.33
Air Force Falcons under 62.5 39.1% 38.8% 12.7% 3.06× 2.58
Brown Bears under 68.5 38.8% 38.8% 41.6% 0.93× 2.58
Air Force Falcons over 68.5 36.7% 38.8% 72.7% 0.53× 2.58
Brown Bears over 74.5 36.6% 38.8% 38.3% 1.01× 2.58
Air Force Falcons under 60.5 31.4% 33.6% 9.5% 3.55× 2.98
Brown Bears under 66.5 31.1% 33.6% 35.3% 0.95× 2.98
Air Force Falcons over 70.5 29.3% 29.3% 66.7% 0.44× 3.42
Brown Bears over 76.5 29.0% 29.3% 32.1% 0.91× 3.42
Air Force Falcons under 58.5 24.5% 24.9% 6.6% 3.77× 4.02
Brown Bears under 64.5 24.1% 24.9% 29.3% 0.85× 4.02
Air Force Falcons over 72.5 22.7% 24.9% 60.8% 0.41× 4.02
Brown Bears over 78.5 22.3% 24.9% 26.3% 0.95× 4.02
Air Force Falcons under 55.5 15.8% 19.3% 3.7% 5.17× 5.18
Brown Bears under 61.5 15.5% 19.3% 20.7% 0.93× 5.18
Air Force Falcons over 75.5 14.6% 16.1% 51.0% 0.32× 6.21
Brown Bears over 81.5 14.0% 16.1% 18.8% 0.86× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 156.5 points 89.5% 85.0% 69.8% 1.22× 1.18
Over 116.5 points 89.6% 85.0% 95.9% 0.89× 1.18
Under 151.5 points 82.8% 80.6% 60.6% 1.33× 1.24
Over 121.5 points 82.6% 80.6% 92.1% 0.87× 1.24
Under 146.5 points 73.6% 70.8% 50.2% 1.41× 1.41
Over 126.5 points 73.4% 70.8% 87.0% 0.81× 1.41
Under 143.5 points 67.2% 65.9% 43.7% 1.51× 1.52
Over 129.5 points 66.7% 65.9% 83.3% 0.79× 1.52
Under 141.5 points 62.6% 61.5% 39.6% 1.55× 1.63
Over 131.5 points 62.1% 61.5% 79.9% 0.77× 1.63
Under 139.5 points 57.7% 56.5% 35.4% 1.60× 1.77
Over 133.5 points 57.2% 56.5% 76.4% 0.74× 1.77
Under 137.5 points 52.8% 52.3% 31.0% 1.69× 1.91
Over 135.5 points 52.2% 52.3% 72.9% 0.72× 1.91
Under 136.5 points 50.2% 52.3% 28.9% 1.81× 1.91
Over 136.5 points 49.8% 47.7% 71.1% 0.67× 2.10
Over 137.5 points 47.2% 47.7% 69.0% 0.69× 2.10
Under 135.5 points 47.8% 47.7% 27.1% 1.76× 2.10
Over 139.5 points 42.3% 43.5% 64.6% 0.67× 2.30
Under 133.5 points 42.8% 43.5% 23.6% 1.84× 2.30
Over 141.5 points 37.4% 38.5% 60.4% 0.64× 2.60
Under 131.5 points 37.9% 38.5% 20.1% 1.92× 2.60
Over 143.5 points 32.8% 34.1% 56.3% 0.61× 2.93
Under 129.5 points 33.3% 34.1% 16.7% 2.04× 2.93
Under 126.5 points 26.6% 29.2% 13.0% 2.24× 3.43
Over 146.5 points 26.4% 29.2% 49.8% 0.59× 3.43
Over 151.5 points 17.2% 19.4% 39.4% 0.49× 5.15
Under 121.5 points 17.4% 19.4% 7.9% 2.47× 5.15
Over 156.5 points 10.5% 15.0% 30.2% 0.50× 6.69
Under 116.5 points 10.4% 15.0% 4.1% 3.61× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears to win both halves 33.7% 31.3% 14.5% 2.15× 3.20
Air Force Falcons to win both halves 8.9% 8.8% 33.2% 0.27× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brown Bears by 1-5 18.5% 16.8% 13.2% 1.27× 5.97
Brown Bears by 6-10 18.7% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Brown Bears by 11-15 15.3% 16.8% 6.1% 2.77× 5.97
Air Force Falcons by 1-5 13.7% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
Brown Bears by 16-20 10.1% 12.3% 3.3% 3.71× 8.11
Air Force Falcons by 6-10 8.5% 7.5% 14.4% 0.52× 13.40
Brown Bears by 21-25 5.3% 7.5% 1.9% 3.90× 13.40
Air Force Falcons by 11-15 4.2% 2.0% 11.6% 0.18× 49.29
Air Force Falcons by 16-20 1.7% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.31
Brown Bears by 26+ 3.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.30
Air Force Falcons by 21-25 0.5% 2.0% 5.6% 0.36× 49.32
Air Force Falcons by 26+ 0.2% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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