Atlanta Hawks v Memphis Grizzlies — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 5 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

Atlanta Hawks

19:00

Memphis Grizzlies

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Atlanta Hawks win

78.4%

Draw

0.0%

Memphis Grizzlies win

21.6%

78022

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	78022	125.81–114.70	126-115 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to score 100+	98.7%	94.9%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
Atlanta Hawks to score 110+	91.8%	90.3%	67.0%	1.35×	1.11
Memphis Grizzlies to score 100+	90.2%	90.3%	85.9%	1.05×	1.11
Both sides to score 100+	89.2%	85.0%	77.5%	1.10×	1.18
Atlanta Hawks to score 120+	70.8%	72.3%	36.5%	1.98×	1.38
Memphis Grizzlies to score 110+	66.8%	63.8%	60.9%	1.05×	1.57
Atlanta Hawks to score 130+	38.2%	36.0%	12.8%	2.81×	2.78
Memphis Grizzlies to score 120+	33.6%	31.4%	29.7%	1.06×	3.19
Memphis Grizzlies to score 130+	10.1%	13.8%	10.0%	1.38×	7.25

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win H1	67.8%	68.3%	52.8%	1.29×	1.47
Memphis Grizzlies to win H1	29.1%	26.6%	44.1%	0.60×	3.77
H1 tied	3.1%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.87

H1 total 34

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 131.5	83.1%	83.2%	91.0%	0.91×	1.20
H1 over 107.5	80.7%	83.2%	70.4%	1.18×	1.20
H1 under 133.5	82.4%	82.5%	93.1%	0.89×	1.21
H1 over 109.5	82.0%	82.5%	65.0%	1.27×	1.21
H1 under 127.5	74.4%	74.0%	84.8%	0.87×	1.35
H1 over 111.5	71.3%	73.9%	59.0%	1.25×	1.35
H1 under 129.5	73.4%	73.5%	88.1%	0.83×	1.36
H1 over 113.5	72.8%	73.5%	52.4%	1.40×	1.36
H1 under 126.5	65.3%	67.4%	82.8%	0.81×	1.48
H1 over 114.5	63.1%	63.3%	49.6%	1.28×	1.58
H1 over 116.5	64.6%	62.7%	43.4%	1.44×	1.59
H1 under 124.5	59.5%	58.2%	78.4%	0.74×	1.72
H1 over 118.5	58.8%	58.2%	37.1%	1.57×	1.72
H1 over 120.5	52.7%	52.6%	31.6%	1.67×	1.90
H1 under 122.5	53.4%	52.6%	74.0%	0.71×	1.90
H1 under 121.5	50.4%	52.6%	71.2%	0.74×	1.90
H1 under 119.5	51.9%	52.5%	65.9%	0.80×	1.90
H1 over 119.5	48.1%	47.5%	34.1%	1.39×	2.11
H1 over 121.5	49.6%	47.4%	28.8%	1.64×	2.11
H1 under 120.5	47.3%	47.4%	68.4%	0.69×	2.11
H1 over 122.5	46.6%	47.4%	26.0%	1.82×	2.11
H1 under 118.5	41.2%	41.8%	62.9%	0.66×	2.39
H1 over 124.5	40.5%	41.8%	21.7%	1.93×	2.39
H1 under 116.5	35.4%	37.3%	56.6%	0.66×	2.68
H1 under 114.5	36.9%	36.7%	50.4%	0.73×	2.72
H1 over 126.5	34.7%	32.6%	17.2%	1.89×	3.07
H1 under 113.5	27.2%	26.5%	47.6%	0.56×	3.77
H1 over 129.5	26.6%	26.5%	11.9%	2.24×	3.77
H1 under 111.5	28.7%	26.1%	41.0%	0.63×	3.84
H1 over 127.5	25.6%	26.0%	15.2%	1.72×	3.84
H1 under 109.5	18.0%	17.5%	35.0%	0.50×	5.73
H1 over 133.5	17.6%	17.5%	6.9%	2.54×	5.73
H1 under 107.5	19.3%	16.8%	29.6%	0.57×	5.96
H1 over 131.5	16.9%	16.8%	9.0%	1.86×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win H2	67.6%	62.8%	51.6%	1.22×	1.59
Memphis Grizzlies to win H2	29.2%	31.3%	44.7%	0.70×	3.20
H2 tied	3.1%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 131.5	83.2%	81.8%	90.1%	0.91×	1.22
H2 over 107.5	81.7%	81.8%	66.2%	1.24×	1.22
H2 over 104.5	82.5%	81.5%	73.9%	1.10×	1.23
H2 under 128.5	81.8%	81.5%	86.3%	0.95×	1.23
H2 over 108.5	73.5%	72.5%	63.8%	1.14×	1.38
H2 under 127.5	74.2%	72.2%	84.9%	0.85×	1.39
H2 over 111.5	72.3%	72.2%	55.3%	1.30×	1.39
H2 under 124.5	66.2%	66.4%	79.1%	0.84×	1.51
H2 under 121.5	64.5%	62.6%	72.0%	0.87×	1.60
H2 over 114.5	64.0%	61.6%	47.5%	1.30×	1.62
H2 under 122.5	60.3%	61.6%	74.4%	0.83×	1.62
H2 over 113.5	59.6%	58.0%	49.9%	1.16×	1.72
H2 over 116.5	58.1%	57.3%	41.9%	1.37×	1.74
H2 under 120.5	54.3%	52.4%	69.3%	0.76×	1.91
H2 over 118.5	51.9%	52.4%	36.4%	1.44×	1.91
H2 under 119.5	51.2%	52.4%	66.4%	0.79×	1.91
H2 over 115.5	53.6%	52.1%	44.6%	1.17×	1.92
H2 under 117.5	52.5%	52.0%	61.1%	0.85×	1.92
H2 over 117.5	47.5%	48.0%	38.9%	1.23×	2.09
H2 under 115.5	46.4%	47.9%	55.4%	0.87×	2.09
H2 over 119.5	48.8%	47.6%	33.6%	1.42×	2.10
H2 under 118.5	48.1%	47.6%	63.6%	0.75×	2.10
H2 over 120.5	45.7%	47.6%	30.7%	1.55×	2.10
H2 under 116.5	41.9%	42.7%	58.1%	0.73×	2.34
H2 under 113.5	40.4%	42.0%	50.1%	0.84×	2.38
H2 over 122.5	39.7%	38.4%	25.6%	1.50×	2.61
H2 under 114.5	36.0%	38.4%	52.5%	0.73×	2.61
H2 over 121.5	35.5%	37.4%	28.0%	1.34×	2.67
H2 over 124.5	33.8%	33.6%	20.9%	1.61×	2.97
H2 under 111.5	27.7%	27.8%	44.7%	0.62×	3.59
H2 over 127.5	25.8%	27.8%	15.1%	1.84×	3.59
H2 under 108.5	26.5%	27.5%	36.2%	0.76×	3.64
H2 over 128.5	18.2%	18.5%	13.7%	1.35×	5.41
H2 under 104.5	17.5%	18.5%	26.1%	0.71×	5.41
H2 under 107.5	18.3%	18.2%	33.8%	0.54×	5.50
H2 over 131.5	16.8%	18.2%	9.9%	1.83×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks leading at half time	67.8%	68.4%	52.8%	1.30×	1.46
Memphis Grizzlies leading at half time	29.1%	26.5%	44.1%	0.60×	3.77
Level at half time	3.1%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.42

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks +14.5	96.1%	97.4%	87.0%	1.12×	1.03
Atlanta Hawks +16.5	97.1%	97.4%	89.7%	1.09×	1.03
Atlanta Hawks +18.5	97.9%	97.4%	91.5%	1.06×	1.03
Atlanta Hawks +20.5	98.5%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Atlanta Hawks +12.5	94.7%	91.1%	83.9%	1.09×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +10.5	93.1%	91.1%	80.3%	1.14×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +8.5	91.0%	91.1%	75.7%	1.20×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +9.5	92.1%	91.1%	78.1%	1.17×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +6.5	88.5%	85.9%	70.6%	1.22×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +7.5	89.8%	85.9%	73.0%	1.18×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +5.5	87.1%	85.9%	68.0%	1.26×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +4.5	85.6%	85.9%	65.7%	1.31×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +3.5	84.0%	81.1%	63.1%	1.29×	1.23
Atlanta Hawks +2.5	82.2%	81.1%	60.5%	1.34×	1.23
Atlanta Hawks +1.5	80.4%	81.1%	57.9%	1.40×	1.23
Atlanta Hawks −1.5	76.2%	76.5%	53.7%	1.42×	1.31
Atlanta Hawks −2.5	73.9%	71.6%	50.9%	1.41×	1.40
Memphis Grizzlies +20.5	73.6%	71.6%	89.1%	0.80×	1.40
Atlanta Hawks −3.5	71.5%	71.6%	48.4%	1.48×	1.40
Atlanta Hawks −4.5	69.0%	66.7%	46.0%	1.45×	1.50
Memphis Grizzlies +18.5	68.8%	66.7%	86.4%	0.77×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks −5.5	66.4%	66.7%	42.9%	1.56×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks −6.5	63.8%	61.9%	40.0%	1.55×	1.62
Memphis Grizzlies +16.5	63.7%	61.9%	83.5%	0.74×	1.62
Atlanta Hawks −7.5	61.1%	61.9%	37.0%	1.67×	1.62
Atlanta Hawks −8.5	58.4%	57.1%	34.1%	1.67×	1.75
Memphis Grizzlies +14.5	58.4%	57.1%	80.1%	0.71×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks −9.5	55.6%	57.1%	31.3%	1.83×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks −10.5	52.8%	52.4%	29.0%	1.81×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies +12.5	52.8%	52.4%	76.0%	0.69×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies +10.5	47.2%	47.6%	71.0%	0.67×	2.10
Atlanta Hawks −12.5	47.2%	47.6%	24.0%	1.98×	2.10
Memphis Grizzlies +9.5	44.4%	42.9%	68.7%	0.62×	2.33
Memphis Grizzlies +8.5	41.7%	42.9%	65.9%	0.65×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks −14.5	41.6%	42.9%	19.9%	2.16×	2.33
Memphis Grizzlies +7.5	38.9%	38.1%	63.0%	0.60×	2.63
Atlanta Hawks −16.5	36.3%	38.1%	16.5%	2.31×	2.63
Memphis Grizzlies +6.5	36.2%	38.1%	60.0%	0.63×	2.63
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5	33.6%	33.3%	57.1%	0.58×	3.01
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5	31.0%	33.3%	54.1%	0.62×	3.01
Atlanta Hawks −18.5	31.2%	33.3%	13.6%	2.44×	3.01
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5	28.5%	28.4%	51.6%	0.55×	3.53
Atlanta Hawks −20.5	26.4%	28.4%	10.9%	2.61×	3.53
Memphis Grizzlies +2.5	26.1%	28.4%	49.1%	0.58×	3.53
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5	23.8%	23.5%	46.3%	0.51×	4.25
Memphis Grizzlies −1.5	19.6%	18.9%	42.1%	0.45×	5.29
Memphis Grizzlies −2.5	17.8%	18.9%	39.5%	0.48×	5.29
Memphis Grizzlies −3.5	16.0%	18.9%	36.9%	0.51×	5.30
Memphis Grizzlies −4.5	14.4%	14.1%	34.3%	0.41×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −5.5	12.9%	14.1%	32.0%	0.44×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −6.5	11.5%	14.1%	29.4%	0.48×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −7.5	10.2%	14.1%	27.0%	0.52×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −8.5	9.0%	8.9%	24.3%	0.37×	11.25
Memphis Grizzlies −9.5	7.9%	8.9%	21.9%	0.41×	11.25
Memphis Grizzlies −10.5	6.9%	8.9%	19.7%	0.45×	11.25
Memphis Grizzlies −12.5	5.3%	8.9%	16.1%	0.55×	11.25
Memphis Grizzlies −14.5	3.9%	2.6%	13.0%	0.20×	38.72
Memphis Grizzlies −16.5	2.9%	2.6%	10.3%	0.25×	38.73
Memphis Grizzlies −18.5	2.1%	2.6%	8.5%	0.30×	38.73
Memphis Grizzlies −20.5	1.5%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	57.0%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.0%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.4%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.1%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	16.9%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	61.4%	62.3%	40.8%	1.53×	1.61
Memphis Grizzlies at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	14.8%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Memphis Grizzlies at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT	14.3%	12.2%	30.9%	0.40×	8.17
Atlanta Hawks at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT	6.5%	8.3%	12.0%	0.69×	12.09
Level at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	2.2%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.75
Level at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT	0.8%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.78

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win	78.4%	75.1%	55.7%	1.35×	1.33
Memphis Grizzlies to win	21.6%	24.9%	44.3%	0.56×	4.02

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks odd	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Memphis Grizzlies even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Total points odd	51.0%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Atlanta Hawks even	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Memphis Grizzlies odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	49.0%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	94.8%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	5.2%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q1	61.2%	64.9%	51.3%	1.26×	1.54
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q1	34.2%	30.4%	44.1%	0.69×	3.29
Q1 tied	4.5%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.95

Q1 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 over 51.5	82.8%	83.2%	76.0%	1.10×	1.20
Q1 under 67.5	82.2%	83.2%	88.8%	0.94×	1.20
Q1 under 69.5	84.6%	82.8%	92.7%	0.89×	1.21
Q1 over 53.5	80.6%	82.8%	68.2%	1.21×	1.21
Q1 over 54.5	72.4%	73.1%	63.3%	1.16×	1.37
Q1 under 66.5	74.7%	72.7%	86.1%	0.84×	1.38
Q1 over 56.5	69.6%	67.6%	54.6%	1.24×	1.48
Q1 under 64.5	66.6%	67.6%	80.1%	0.84×	1.48
Q1 over 58.5	60.9%	61.7%	44.3%	1.39×	1.62
Q1 under 62.5	57.7%	58.6%	72.9%	0.80×	1.71
Q1 over 59.5	50.4%	52.7%	40.0%	1.32×	1.90
Q1 under 61.5	53.1%	52.7%	68.5%	0.77×	1.90
Q1 over 60.5	51.6%	52.7%	35.5%	1.48×	1.90
Q1 under 60.5	48.4%	47.3%	64.5%	0.73×	2.11
Q1 over 61.5	46.9%	47.3%	31.5%	1.50×	2.11
Q1 under 59.5	49.6%	47.3%	60.0%	0.79×	2.11
Q1 over 62.5	42.3%	41.4%	27.1%	1.53×	2.42
Q1 under 58.5	39.1%	38.3%	55.7%	0.69×	2.61
Q1 over 64.5	33.4%	32.4%	19.9%	1.63×	3.08
Q1 under 56.5	30.4%	32.4%	45.4%	0.71×	3.08
Q1 over 66.5	25.3%	27.3%	13.9%	1.96×	3.67
Q1 under 54.5	27.6%	26.9%	36.7%	0.73×	3.72
Q1 under 53.5	19.4%	17.2%	31.8%	0.54×	5.83
Q1 over 69.5	15.4%	17.2%	7.3%	2.34×	5.83
Q1 over 67.5	17.8%	16.8%	11.2%	1.49×	5.95
Q1 under 51.5	17.2%	16.8%	24.0%	0.70×	5.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q2	61.1%	61.9%	49.3%	1.25×	1.62
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q2	34.4%	31.9%	46.2%	0.69×	3.14
Q2 tied	4.5%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.89

Q2 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 67.5	83.0%	83.1%	88.7%	0.94×	1.20
Q2 over 51.5	81.7%	83.1%	74.2%	1.12×	1.20
Q2 over 52.5	82.6%	83.0%	70.3%	1.18×	1.21
Q2 under 68.5	82.4%	83.0%	90.6%	0.92×	1.21
Q2 under 64.5	72.8%	73.0%	80.9%	0.90×	1.37
Q2 over 54.5	71.1%	73.0%	61.1%	1.20×	1.37
Q2 over 55.5	72.2%	72.0%	56.3%	1.28×	1.39
Q2 under 65.5	71.9%	72.0%	83.6%	0.86×	1.39
Q2 under 62.5	64.6%	62.0%	74.4%	0.83×	1.61
Q2 over 56.5	62.7%	62.0%	51.7%	1.20×	1.61
Q2 over 57.5	63.9%	60.7%	47.3%	1.28×	1.65
Q2 under 63.5	63.6%	60.7%	77.5%	0.78×	1.65
Q2 over 59.5	54.8%	52.7%	38.1%	1.38×	1.90
Q2 under 61.5	54.5%	52.7%	70.4%	0.75×	1.90
Q2 over 60.5	50.2%	52.7%	34.3%	1.54×	1.90
Q2 over 58.5	53.7%	52.2%	42.7%	1.22×	1.92
Q2 under 58.5	46.3%	47.8%	57.3%	0.83×	2.09
Q2 under 60.5	49.8%	47.3%	65.7%	0.72×	2.11
Q2 over 61.5	45.5%	47.3%	29.6%	1.60×	2.11
Q2 under 59.5	45.2%	47.3%	61.9%	0.76×	2.11
Q2 over 63.5	36.4%	39.3%	22.5%	1.75×	2.55
Q2 under 57.5	36.1%	39.3%	52.7%	0.75×	2.55
Q2 under 56.5	37.3%	38.0%	48.3%	0.79×	2.63
Q2 over 62.5	35.4%	38.0%	25.6%	1.48×	2.63
Q2 over 65.5	28.1%	28.0%	16.4%	1.71×	3.57
Q2 under 55.5	27.8%	28.0%	43.7%	0.64×	3.57
Q2 under 54.5	28.9%	27.0%	38.9%	0.69×	3.71
Q2 over 64.5	27.2%	27.0%	19.1%	1.41×	3.71
Q2 over 68.5	17.6%	17.0%	9.4%	1.80×	5.88
Q2 under 52.5	17.4%	17.0%	29.7%	0.57×	5.88
Q2 under 51.5	18.3%	16.9%	25.8%	0.65×	5.93
Q2 over 67.5	17.0%	16.9%	11.3%	1.49×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q3	61.1%	60.8%	50.9%	1.20×	1.64
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q3	34.4%	33.8%	44.3%	0.76×	2.96
Q3 tied	4.5%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 69.5	84.3%	82.3%	91.4%	0.90×	1.22
Q3 over 53.5	81.4%	82.3%	68.3%	1.20×	1.22
Q3 under 68.5	84.9%	82.2%	89.3%	0.92×	1.22
Q3 over 52.5	80.5%	82.2%	72.2%	1.14×	1.22
Q3 under 65.5	75.1%	76.9%	82.2%	0.94×	1.30
Q3 under 66.5	74.3%	71.8%	84.7%	0.85×	1.39
Q3 over 56.5	70.4%	71.8%	55.0%	1.30×	1.39
Q3 under 64.5	66.1%	67.8%	79.2%	0.86×	1.48
Q3 over 55.5	69.3%	66.9%	59.9%	1.12×	1.50
Q3 under 63.5	67.1%	66.8%	75.9%	0.88×	1.50
Q3 over 57.5	60.5%	62.6%	50.2%	1.25×	1.60
Q3 over 58.5	61.8%	61.9%	45.2%	1.37×	1.61
Q3 under 62.5	57.0%	58.4%	71.9%	0.81×	1.71
Q3 over 59.5	51.2%	52.6%	41.0%	1.28×	1.90
Q3 over 60.5	52.5%	52.3%	36.5%	1.43×	1.91
Q3 under 61.5	52.3%	52.3%	67.7%	0.77×	1.91
Q3 under 60.5	47.5%	47.7%	63.5%	0.75×	2.10
Q3 over 61.5	47.7%	47.7%	32.3%	1.48×	2.10
Q3 under 59.5	48.8%	47.4%	59.0%	0.80×	2.11
Q3 over 62.5	43.0%	41.6%	28.1%	1.48×	2.40
Q3 under 58.5	38.2%	38.1%	54.8%	0.69×	2.63
Q3 under 57.5	39.5%	37.4%	49.8%	0.75×	2.67
Q3 over 63.5	32.9%	33.2%	24.1%	1.38×	3.02
Q3 under 55.5	30.7%	33.1%	40.1%	0.83×	3.02
Q3 over 64.5	33.9%	32.2%	20.8%	1.55×	3.10
Q3 under 56.5	29.6%	28.2%	45.0%	0.63×	3.55
Q3 over 66.5	25.7%	28.2%	15.3%	1.85×	3.55
Q3 over 65.5	24.9%	23.1%	17.8%	1.30×	4.34
Q3 under 52.5	19.6%	17.8%	27.8%	0.64×	5.62
Q3 over 68.5	15.1%	17.8%	10.7%	1.66×	5.63
Q3 under 53.5	18.6%	17.7%	31.7%	0.56×	5.66
Q3 over 69.5	15.7%	17.7%	8.6%	2.05×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q4	60.9%	57.8%	48.3%	1.20×	1.73
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q4	34.5%	37.4%	46.4%	0.81×	2.67
Q4 tied	4.6%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.29

Q4 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 66.5	83.3%	82.0%	90.4%	0.91×	1.22
Q4 over 50.5	81.0%	82.0%	68.5%	1.20×	1.22
Q4 under 65.5	83.8%	81.9%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Q4 over 49.5	80.2%	81.9%	72.3%	1.13×	1.22
Q4 under 62.5	73.9%	72.3%	80.4%	0.90×	1.38
Q4 under 63.5	73.3%	71.5%	83.7%	0.85×	1.40
Q4 over 53.5	70.2%	71.5%	55.7%	1.28×	1.40
Q4 under 61.5	65.2%	67.4%	77.5%	0.87×	1.48
Q4 over 52.5	69.3%	66.7%	60.4%	1.10×	1.50
Q4 under 60.5	66.0%	66.6%	74.2%	0.90×	1.50
Q4 over 54.5	60.9%	61.6%	51.4%	1.20×	1.62
Q4 over 55.5	61.8%	61.4%	47.1%	1.30×	1.63
Q4 under 59.5	56.4%	58.4%	70.2%	0.83×	1.71
Q4 over 57.5	52.8%	52.5%	38.1%	1.38×	1.91
Q4 under 58.5	51.8%	52.5%	66.2%	0.79×	1.91
Q4 over 56.5	51.9%	52.3%	42.8%	1.22×	1.91
Q4 under 56.5	48.1%	47.7%	57.2%	0.83×	2.10
Q4 over 58.5	48.2%	47.5%	33.8%	1.41×	2.11
Q4 under 57.5	47.2%	47.5%	61.9%	0.77×	2.11
Q4 over 59.5	43.6%	41.6%	29.8%	1.40×	2.40
Q4 under 55.5	38.2%	38.6%	52.9%	0.73×	2.59
Q4 under 54.5	39.1%	38.4%	48.6%	0.79×	2.61
Q4 over 60.5	34.0%	33.4%	25.8%	1.30×	3.00
Q4 under 52.5	30.7%	33.3%	39.6%	0.84×	3.00
Q4 over 61.5	34.8%	32.6%	22.5%	1.45×	3.07
Q4 under 53.5	29.8%	28.5%	44.3%	0.64×	3.51
Q4 over 63.5	26.7%	28.5%	16.3%	1.75×	3.51
Q4 over 62.5	26.1%	27.7%	19.6%	1.41×	3.61
Q4 under 49.5	19.8%	18.1%	27.7%	0.65×	5.53
Q4 over 65.5	16.2%	18.1%	11.6%	1.56×	5.53
Q4 under 50.5	19.0%	18.0%	31.5%	0.57×	5.56
Q4 over 66.5	16.7%	18.0%	9.6%	1.88×	5.56

Team total 58

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks under 136.5	81.5%	80.7%	95.3%	0.85×	1.24
Memphis Grizzlies over 104.5	80.6%	80.7%	75.0%	1.08×	1.24
Memphis Grizzlies under 124.5	80.2%	80.7%	81.4%	0.99×	1.24
Atlanta Hawks over 111.5	79.2%	78.3%	61.1%	1.28×	1.28
Atlanta Hawks over 116.5	78.8%	75.1%	45.3%	1.66×	1.33
Atlanta Hawks under 128.5	72.3%	71.8%	85.5%	0.84×	1.39
Atlanta Hawks over 114.5	71.5%	71.8%	51.4%	1.40×	1.39
Atlanta Hawks under 133.5	74.0%	70.7%	92.3%	0.77×	1.41
Memphis Grizzlies over 107.5	72.8%	70.7%	66.6%	1.06×	1.41
Memphis Grizzlies under 121.5	72.4%	70.7%	74.7%	0.95×	1.41
Atlanta Hawks over 119.5	70.8%	70.7%	36.5%	1.94×	1.41
Atlanta Hawks under 131.5	68.1%	66.4%	89.8%	0.74×	1.51
Memphis Grizzlies over 109.5	66.8%	66.4%	60.9%	1.09×	1.51
Memphis Grizzlies under 119.5	66.4%	66.4%	70.3%	0.94×	1.51
Atlanta Hawks over 121.5	64.7%	61.2%	30.4%	2.01×	1.63
Atlanta Hawks under 129.5	61.8%	61.2%	87.2%	0.70×	1.63
Memphis Grizzlies over 111.5	60.3%	61.2%	54.6%	1.12×	1.63
Atlanta Hawks under 124.5	60.2%	61.2%	76.8%	0.80×	1.64
Atlanta Hawks over 118.5	59.4%	57.9%	39.7%	1.46×	1.73
Memphis Grizzlies under 117.5	59.9%	57.1%	64.4%	0.89×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks over 123.5	58.2%	57.1%	25.6%	2.23×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks under 127.5	55.2%	57.1%	83.5%	0.68×	1.75
Memphis Grizzlies over 113.5	53.6%	52.3%	48.0%	1.09×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 126.5	51.9%	52.3%	81.5%	0.64×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks over 125.5	51.5%	52.3%	20.9%	2.50×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies under 115.5	53.2%	52.3%	58.6%	0.89×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies over 114.5	50.2%	52.3%	44.5%	1.18×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 122.5	53.7%	52.2%	71.8%	0.73×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks over 120.5	52.9%	52.2%	33.7%	1.55×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 120.5	47.1%	47.8%	66.3%	0.72×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks over 122.5	46.3%	47.8%	28.2%	1.69×	2.09
Memphis Grizzlies under 114.5	49.8%	47.7%	55.5%	0.86×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks over 126.5	48.1%	47.7%	18.5%	2.59×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks under 125.5	48.5%	47.7%	79.1%	0.60×	2.09
Memphis Grizzlies over 115.5	46.8%	47.7%	41.4%	1.15×	2.09
Memphis Grizzlies under 113.5	46.4%	47.7%	52.0%	0.92×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks over 127.5	44.8%	42.9%	16.5%	2.60×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks under 123.5	41.8%	42.9%	74.4%	0.58×	2.33
Memphis Grizzlies over 117.5	40.1%	42.9%	35.6%	1.20×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks under 118.5	40.6%	42.1%	60.3%	0.70×	2.38
Atlanta Hawks over 124.5	39.8%	38.8%	23.2%	1.67×	2.58
Atlanta Hawks over 129.5	38.2%	38.8%	12.8%	3.02×	2.58
Memphis Grizzlies under 111.5	39.7%	38.8%	45.4%	0.85×	2.58
Atlanta Hawks under 121.5	35.3%	38.8%	69.6%	0.56×	2.58
Memphis Grizzlies under 109.5	33.2%	33.6%	39.1%	0.86×	2.98
Memphis Grizzlies over 119.5	33.6%	33.6%	29.7%	1.13×	2.98
Atlanta Hawks over 131.5	31.9%	33.6%	10.2%	3.29×	2.98
Atlanta Hawks under 119.5	29.2%	29.3%	63.5%	0.46×	3.42
Memphis Grizzlies under 107.5	27.2%	29.3%	33.4%	0.88×	3.42
Memphis Grizzlies over 121.5	27.6%	29.3%	25.3%	1.16×	3.42
Atlanta Hawks over 133.5	26.1%	29.3%	7.7%	3.78×	3.42
Atlanta Hawks under 114.5	28.5%	28.2%	48.6%	0.58×	3.55
Atlanta Hawks over 128.5	27.7%	28.2%	14.5%	1.94×	3.55
Atlanta Hawks under 116.5	21.2%	24.9%	54.7%	0.45×	4.02
Atlanta Hawks under 111.5	20.8%	21.7%	38.9%	0.56×	4.60
Memphis Grizzlies over 124.5	19.8%	19.3%	18.6%	1.04×	5.18
Memphis Grizzlies under 104.5	19.4%	19.3%	25.0%	0.77×	5.18
Atlanta Hawks over 136.5	18.5%	19.3%	4.8%	4.06×	5.18

Total points 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 215.5 points	85.7%	85.5%	73.4%	1.16×	1.17
Over 220.5 points	86.2%	85.0%	64.2%	1.33×	1.18
Under 260.5 points	86.1%	85.0%	94.1%	0.90×	1.18
Over 225.5 points	79.3%	75.6%	54.7%	1.38×	1.32
Under 255.5 points	79.3%	75.6%	90.8%	0.83×	1.32
Over 230.5 points	70.7%	70.8%	44.6%	1.59×	1.41
Under 250.5 points	70.6%	70.8%	86.1%	0.82×	1.41
Over 228.5 points	64.7%	61.8%	48.7%	1.27×	1.62
Under 242.5 points	64.4%	61.8%	76.8%	0.80×	1.62
Over 233.5 points	64.8%	61.5%	38.6%	1.59×	1.63
Under 247.5 points	64.8%	61.5%	83.3%	0.74×	1.63
Over 235.5 points	60.7%	61.5%	34.7%	1.77×	1.63
Under 245.5 points	60.7%	61.5%	80.9%	0.76×	1.63
Over 237.5 points	56.5%	56.5%	30.7%	1.84×	1.77
Under 243.5 points	56.5%	56.5%	78.2%	0.72×	1.77
Over 232.5 points	56.5%	56.0%	40.6%	1.38×	1.79
Under 238.5 points	56.2%	56.0%	70.9%	0.79×	1.79
Over 239.5 points	52.2%	52.3%	27.5%	1.90×	1.91
Under 241.5 points	52.2%	52.3%	75.5%	0.69×	1.91
Over 240.5 points	50.0%	52.3%	26.0%	2.02×	1.91
Over 234.5 points	52.3%	52.2%	36.7%	1.42×	1.92
Under 236.5 points	52.0%	52.2%	67.3%	0.78×	1.92
Over 236.5 points	48.0%	47.8%	32.7%	1.46×	2.09
Under 234.5 points	47.7%	47.8%	63.3%	0.75×	2.09
Under 240.5 points	50.0%	47.7%	74.0%	0.64×	2.10
Under 239.5 points	47.8%	47.7%	72.5%	0.66×	2.10
Over 241.5 points	47.8%	47.7%	24.5%	1.95×	2.10
Over 238.5 points	43.8%	44.0%	29.1%	1.51×	2.27
Under 232.5 points	43.5%	44.0%	59.4%	0.74×	2.27
Under 237.5 points	43.5%	43.5%	69.3%	0.63×	2.30
Over 243.5 points	43.5%	43.5%	21.8%	1.99×	2.30
Under 235.5 points	39.3%	38.5%	65.3%	0.59×	2.60
Over 245.5 points	39.3%	38.5%	19.1%	2.01×	2.60
Under 233.5 points	35.2%	38.5%	61.4%	0.63×	2.60
Over 247.5 points	35.2%	38.5%	16.7%	2.31×	2.60
Over 242.5 points	35.6%	38.2%	23.2%	1.65×	2.62
Under 228.5 points	35.3%	38.2%	51.3%	0.75×	2.62
Under 230.5 points	29.3%	29.2%	55.4%	0.53×	3.43
Over 250.5 points	29.4%	29.2%	13.9%	2.11×	3.43
Under 225.5 points	20.7%	24.4%	45.3%	0.54×	4.10
Over 255.5 points	20.7%	24.4%	9.2%	2.65×	4.10
Over 260.5 points	13.9%	15.0%	5.9%	2.55×	6.68
Under 220.5 points	13.8%	15.0%	35.8%	0.42×	6.68
Under 215.5 points	14.3%	14.5%	26.6%	0.55×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win both halves	44.0%	40.7%	25.2%	1.61×	2.46
Memphis Grizzlies to win both halves	6.9%	8.8%	17.8%	0.49×	11.32

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks by 26+	16.4%	16.8%	6.2%	2.71×	5.97
Atlanta Hawks by 6-10	13.7%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 11-15	13.9%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 16-20	12.5%	12.3%	7.3%	1.68×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 1-5	12.0%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 21-25	10.0%	12.3%	4.7%	2.62×	8.11
Memphis Grizzlies by 1-5	8.7%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Memphis Grizzlies by 6-10	5.9%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Memphis Grizzlies by 11-15	3.6%	2.0%	8.0%	0.25×	49.30
Memphis Grizzlies by 16-20	1.9%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.31
Memphis Grizzlies by 21-25	0.9%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.32
Memphis Grizzlies by 26+	0.6%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.32

Atlanta Hawks v Memphis Grizzlies — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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